Elite Dangerous data : is the game dying or growing ?
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I came back to the game after getting peeved at the broken mechanics (they royally fouled up the economy about 14 weeks ago) and Powerplay. I got back in, found the economy sort of fixed, and Powerplay still sucks, but I like Flying A Space Ship and Shooting Bad Guys Down.
However, I do notice one disturbing trend. I had about 75 people as friends in the game--about 50 'muricans and another 25 brits. Six months ago, I would usually see 20 of them online at a time, and most played pretty regularly. Right before I took my break, it was half that, and it was mostly then the same 10 players. Since I came back, it's down to 3 (not counting 2 I just added), and it's the same 3 players. Not counting me, that's 72 of 75 who are not currently playing the game.
Now, I'm the first to tell you that's anecdotal, since my list of friends is not a random sample, and not very big in the grand scheme of things. But geez, it's hard not to read a message from that.
No, the message is not "I need to pick better "friends" in game, thanks.
However, I do notice one disturbing trend. I had about 75 people as friends in the game--about 50 'muricans and another 25 brits. Six months ago, I would usually see 20 of them online at a time, and most played pretty regularly. Right before I took my break, it was half that, and it was mostly then the same 10 players. Since I came back, it's down to 3 (not counting 2 I just added), and it's the same 3 players. Not counting me, that's 72 of 75 who are not currently playing the game.
Now, I'm the first to tell you that's anecdotal, since my list of friends is not a random sample, and not very big in the grand scheme of things. But geez, it's hard not to read a message from that.
No, the message is not "I need to pick better "friends" in game, thanks.
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You may not think it's Early Access but I see it following exactly the same model as EA games. USS placeholders are still in, exploration mechanics have not been added yet and missions are still buggy according to others so the game is not finished and is still in development.
DayZ is still in development and has new things added to it as well and has bugs that they fix and is EA.
If there is little content which cannot be denied considering all the posts and reviews saying so, then the 10 year plan is to add more content until we have the depth that is required.
It looks like a duck to me
That is correct, how-ever, the core game was repeatedly marketed as launching on December 16th 2014 on various relevant news outlets and is tagged on Steam as having released on April 2nd 2015. It's marked on Steam as April 2nd because Steam sometimes only lists title release dates when they appear on Steam, sometimes it does provide the actual release date, as in the case of Nexus: The Jupiter Incident.
Elite: Dangerous is featured on Steam where it is marked as a released product with an online service, in no way does it list Elite: Dangerous as being an Early Access title. DayZ as you mention is in fact an Early Access title and is listed as such. There are exceptions, such as Hawkenwhich I participated in an early stage of. That particular game never had a release, it went into open beta after closed alpha and beta. What happened thereafter prior to it being included on the Steam Storefront I don't really know, I gave the game a rest after they made some overhauls that reduced TTK and introduced grind that I personally felt made the game not as enjoyable.
The core game is released as a finished product, and was reviewed and sold as one. It is not finished, but neither is Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn. The expansion Heavensward was released recently and the core game received several major patches and updates up until that point, one of my favorites being the major update which added the instance Pharos Sirius.
A more representative description of the release model would be to compare it to an MMORPG such as FFXIV:ARR. The core game is released as a complete product, it receives content updates along with patches; at a later date it receives a major content update in the form of an expansion pack. For example, Final Fantasy XI was released as a finished product, Square and later Square Enix, provided the game with content updates and expansion packs.
Releasing doesn't necessarily mean you don't commit to a long term plan, but it does mean you relinquish any claim to being in an early stage of development. With the exception of porting over to a console or platform of course.
Thanks for taking the time to read, I appreciate the discussion but disagree with your perspective!
game isnt dying people are just doin other things till the new update comes.
Great, now show me Eve stats following the first year of it's release in 2003. You think it went up and up? Or initially up then down until lots of expansions were added? Hmmm?
Well, I think it's safe to say that the Game isn't exactly bursting from active Players either
And the reasons for that have all been posted many times over in the Forums - only FDev didn't get the Memo.
Outside CG's or other Hotspots, traversing through Systems even over 250LY in Open often feels like Solo. Noone there, not even during peak hours. Tons of empty space inside our beloved, uncivilized lawless "civilization".
And even if you encounter one... what difference does it make? What could you - reasonably - do with an unknown Player you encounter at a random location? Options aren't many. Ignore, Chat, Fight. Big deal, uh?
Players getting bored, even Ganker Groups getting desperate because even the "Old Worlds" aren't the traffic hotspots & guaranteed action theaters they were once solid-booked for. Go figure.
Just imagine there would be no Hotspots (no Systems to focus Player activity on). It doesn't take a genius to realize that encountering other Players distributed amongst, what... 25000? inhabited Systems would be a rare sight.
What you sow you shall reap.
Frontier is getting a healthy dose of that already - and the future doesn't look any different. They don't listen. They don't even understand. Hence, they don't learn from past mistakes and keep repeating them - honestly believing the show could continue forever.
Countless others thought so before, over and over and over again throughout human history.
History doesn't repeat itself but rhymes pretty well.
Everytime Frontier is in one of these moods again "Can't wait to show", Soon(tm), "We got awesome stuff in the pipe", "We're announcing that we're soon make an announcement".... With every major Version, I can't help but think of this :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n_1zsCVBxw
PS.
Still, we'll have a good number of Players that are happy with the Status Quo. No harm in that.
If that's enough to keep the Project afloat? Time will tell, I already gave my personal predictions on the topic a long time ago. We'll see soon(tm) enough...
Insanity is, repeating the same tired doom predictions over and over again - expecting anyone to give a damn.
Game sales data :
22 April 2015 - 500.000 units sold (only PC)
31 August 2015 - 825,000 units sold (PC,Mac,Xbox)
Total unit sold grow by 65 %.
Steam stats:
Month Avg. Players
April 2015 4,471.1
August 2015 3,917.6
Avg. players number down by 12.4 %.
http://steamcharts.com/app/359320
We all know that 70-80 % of game slaes is in the first year since realase. So as current player base deacy we will see no new players around to replace them. If FD dont wake up and still will be crafting this grinding machine that Elite Dangerous is, open play will be pointless as option in menu
Edit : I dont expect that ED will ever reach 2 millions unit sold when metacritic users score is 6.5/10 now and going down. http://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/elite-dangerous/user-reviews?sort-by=date&num_items=100
Don't worry buddy they have some releases lined up... their business plan is pretty solid.
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Frankly my dear..
To the OP
I'm one of those people who dropped off his playing of Elite last month.
Not because it was summer, or the sun was out, or even because I'm bored and fed up with Elite.
It was (drum roll) because I'd come up with a better design of interplanetary ship in Kerbal Space Program and spent 2 weeks building/rebuilding/redesigning it to try and get it into space without it blowing up on the launch pad, blowing up at 5 000m up or shedding large sections of itself at 25 000m .... then blowing up
Bill
Then gave up, and went back into space with ships that only blow up when someone else shoots them......... or you fly into the station walls/dock/mailbox/that type 9 you thought was leaving
I'm one of those people who dropped off his playing of Elite last month.
Not because it was summer, or the sun was out, or even because I'm bored and fed up with Elite.
It was (drum roll) because I'd come up with a better design of interplanetary ship in Kerbal Space Program and spent 2 weeks building/rebuilding/redesigning it to try and get it into space without it blowing up on the launch pad, blowing up at 5 000m up or shedding large sections of itself at 25 000m .... then blowing up
Bill
Then gave up, and went back into space with ships that only blow up when someone else shoots them......... or you fly into the station walls/dock/mailbox/that type 9 you thought was leaving
Why would I do that? I don't care. My goal was just to point out your assertion was false.
I don't think ED is doing as well as it could have. We all know its shortcomings at this point. Who knows how it will pan out in the future. Can only hope.
I think the biggest single problem with ED, is the lack of social tools. There really should be a chat system where you can communicate ingame with everyone that is currently online.
I think the biggest single problem with ED, is the lack of social tools. There really should be a chat system where you can communicate ingame with everyone that is currently online.
You should read my assertion again then. I qualified since the initial release of the game, you need to find data that follows a games release not where the number of players has flattened out after over a decade.
Game sales data :
22 April 2015 - 500.000 units sold (only PC)
31 August 2015 - 825,000 units sold (PC,Mac,Xbox)
Total unit sold grow by 65 %.
Steam stats:
Month Avg. Players
April 2015 4,471.1
August 2015 3,917.6
Avg. players number down by 12.4 %.
http://steamcharts.com/app/359320
We all know that 70-80 % of game slaes is in the first year since realase. So as current player base deacy we will see no new players around to replace them. If FD dont wake up and still will be crafting this grinding machine that Elite Dangerous is, open play will be pointless as option in menu
Edit : I dont expect that ED will ever reach 2 millions unit sold when metacritic users score is 6.5/10 now and going down. http://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/elite-dangerous/user-reviews?sort-by=date&num_items=100
Name me a game and I will show you grind. Any game ever produce beyond Pong and Space invaders an Pacman type game contain grinds.
Steam only contains a fraction of the player base and doesn't include Xbox One and or people who bought through Frontier store and never link the game up with steam, like me for example.
I don't think that the game is dying, it's... stagnating. But we can only speculate since we don't really know the overall PCU numbers which FDEV is still hiding.
^^ also, this. Custom mods FTW.
EVE needed year and a half to really pick up the momentum. I believe breaking point was the "Exodus" expansion. Perhaps "Horizons" will do the same for ED.
http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility
^^ also, this. Custom mods FTW.
EVE needed year and a half to really pick up the momentum. I believe breaking point was the "Exodus" expansion. Perhaps "Horizons" will do the same for ED.
http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility
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These threads make me chuckle.
I've played Final Fantasy XI for years. Every forum devoted to the game had doomsayers posting constantly the game was dying. 13 years later and it's still around.
Now here I am in a new game, with the same Chicken Littles.
I wouldn't worry about the sky falling in Elite just yet.
I've played Final Fantasy XI for years. Every forum devoted to the game had doomsayers posting constantly the game was dying. 13 years later and it's still around.
Now here I am in a new game, with the same Chicken Littles.
I wouldn't worry about the sky falling in Elite just yet.
I think I remember Square Enix expecting sales figures along the lines of Five Million, not counting digital downloads, for Tomb Raider (2013). Knowing what your market is and marketing accordingly is not their strong side anymore unfortunately.Square Enix would be proud.
"It's not selling millions of copies! It's a failure"
This is probably the biggest thing here, market accordingly and know what your target audience is. Elite is niche as previously stated, and will always be niche. I have seen nothing that has made me think Frontier doesn't know this. In terms of sales: People who are potentially interested in the niche Elite fills will buy it, people who are not probably won't. Very few buy things "ironically."
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