It was voted in that they will get a vote, I don't think she can prevent it?
But yeah, she probably knows how much Scotland leaving will hurt and doesn't want that.
General / Off-Topic is scotland leaving the UK?
- Thread starter jmg
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It was voted in that they will get a vote, I don't think she can prevent it?
But yeah, she probably knows how much Scotland leaving will hurt and doesn't want that.
I guess I just got confused about this...
Is a Scottish vote dead in the water if May doesn't approve it?
Scotland is a net contributor to the rest of the UK, not just financially but also for things like electricity, food and water. This would, of course, continue, as talk about walking away from markets and suchlike is nonsense, but these would be part of new trade agreements. If, as is highly likely, Scotland is in the EU then the terms of these are likely to be far less favourable for the RUK.
Not entirely.
See thats the thing.
Brexit is leaving an very Favorable Position for an very Uncertain one.
So the thing standing out tremendously is the Risks.
There is no real Risks to staying in the EU either.
Its similar to a Child abandoning School to become a Rockstar.
The Risks of it going wrong are Tremendous. And the Child not having any actual Plan on it is a problem.
Scotlands Position however is different.
After Brexit there is an Tremendous Chance of Scotland being in an incredible unsecure Position.
While leaving Britain and Rejoining the EU would offer an Fairly Safe Bet of retaining most of its Wealth.
The Risks for Scotland after leaving are fairly small.
The EU welcoming them is pretty secure and the uncertainities are mostly stuff that can be worked out easily.
Moreover due to Brexit the Risk of staying with Britain is providing way more Uncertainities than Leaving it.
Its similar to a Child from a Circus Troupe abandoning the Troupe to go to School.
The Child being taken up by Relatives is fairly Secure as these Relatives already said before that they would take the Child gladly.
And the School is very likely to provide much less Risks and way more Security than remaining with the Circus Troupe.
You say its Pure Speculation.
But is it actually ?
You dont need to be a Genius to Realize that its pretty much impossible to get something better than Free Trade with the Continent your sitting in Front off.
Lately the Brexiteers keep going around with the Commonwealth Founding the Biggest Market in the World.
But aside from the Commonwealth in its entirety still not reaching the Market Size of the EU even if all of em were to Join.
The thing is that all of the Commonwealth Members have made clear that they are not Interested unless they also get similar Conditions as were standard in the EU.
Meaning Free Immigration between the States in that new Commonwealth etc.
And lets be honest here.
Do you really think after voting for Brexit to get Polnish and Romanian Workers out of the UK.
You can sell to the People that you now have Free Immigration from India and Africa ?
Thats a Joke to be Reckoned with xD
You are right that its partial Speculation.
But the really Importand Difference is the Margin of Possibilities.
This Margin for Brexit goes from.
Moderate Damages to Catastrophic Damages to the UK.
For Scotland leaving the UK it goes from.
Moderate Damages to Solid Advantages.
Moreover the Possibilities for Remain of the UK was.
No Changes to Slight Improvements.
For Scotland the Possibilities of Remaining in the UK are.
Moderate Damages to Catastrophic Damages.
At work we got this Funny Picture.
Which says "Fair Testing"
It shows an Monkey, an Dog, an Lion and an Elephant.
And the Examiner says.
"Ok we are going to have a Fair Test so all of you get the same Problem"
"Climb this Tree over there"
Just because you have the same Action does not mean the Result or Difficulty is the Same
Scotland has an much better Position for Leaving than the UK does.
So while I agree that some stuff looks the same.
The Situation is entirely Different.
And Scotland does not need much of an Big Plan here.
They aint Planning to do everything alone in the Future. So they dont actually need some Big War Plan.
Their Plan is pretty Simple.
Join the EU.
This Solves almost all of their Problems from Independence because they got a Currency, they got Trade Deals and they even got an Base set of Laws and Regulations for almost the entire Industry.
So unlike Britain they dont actually need a Big Plan
There can not be any real honesty, or facts and truths. All we have are projections and rumours and of course; propaganda and hope. Only afterwards can we be honest and the true facts be reviled.
Just like today with the triggering of article 50. The fact is our glorious ex prime minister Dave only 'promised' a referendum on the UK remaining in the E.U. because he was losing members of his own party to UKIP and he got scared. Now look at the mess the poor of this country have to deal with, plus without the Brexit vote, Scotland would not have a reason to call other independence vote.
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Technically May has the final word on the matter; well until the Scottish natives get out the blue paint.
If by some miracle Scotlands dept was cancelled out, they still over spend by 8.1% a year. So what's going to be cut?
(http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/08/2132)
As I said, it's all speculation and it'd be better left until we know stuff for sure rather than having years and years of pointless posturing based on if's and maybe's.
Anyone who says Scotland will be better or worse off is either lying or deluded. We just don't know.
(http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/08/2132)
As I said, it's all speculation and it'd be better left until we know stuff for sure rather than having years and years of pointless posturing based on if's and maybe's.
Anyone who says Scotland will be better or worse off is either lying or deluded. We just don't know.
Where is Scotland`s debt and how did they accumulate it, please inform us.
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Of course it wouldn't stop, and of course it wouldn't walk away, but it would be far less favorable for the UK, that's all i'm saying, I'm just simplifying, something Scotland would suddenly own would of course continue to sell to earn money, so yeah not talking about walking away, but that advantages for UK would be lost, and it is significant advantages that would be lost.
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Where's the debt from? if part of UK wouldn't it also be UK debt? or? sounds a bit odd.
As for them being 'better off' yeah of course we don't know, but the numbers 'seem' to indicate they would. The reality of it? well they would need to leave for us to know.
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Once again, Scotland has no debt and GERS figures cannot be used to make predictions about the economy of an independent Scotland. Yes there's uncertainty, but there's at least as much uncertainty associated with staying part of a post-Brexit UK. There is no reason to presume that Scotland couldn't thrive as an independent country, with our considerable resources. Towards the end of the indy referendum campaign, even Project Fear were admitting that.
Yaffle
Volunteer Moderator
Really?
from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-debt-and-the-scotland-independence-referendum
It says, in short, there would be no handover of gilts into Scotland, it would have a debt bill and it would have to raise its own debt:
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Yaffle
Volunteer Moderator
Read the actual announcement. You are mistaken.
From the BBC article you kindly posted confirming exactly my point. Scotland has to pay for liabilities of the UK. The rUK underwrites it during transition but requires payment once iScot can issue its own debt. In short, you've misunderstood by only reading the headline.
I think you fail to appreciate the situation, Scotland has no liability, it rests totally on the sovereign. Then you have negotiation and Scotland can take some of the liabilities in exchange for some of the assets of the UK, its a simple quid pro quo. The UK gets stroppy, then the Scots can say fair enough and walk with zero liability, the UK does not have the upper hand in such negotiations. Again as for currency, the world is the Scots oyster and they can choose what is best for them as I previously outlined, again with zero input from the UK who have zero say in same.
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Yaffle
Volunteer Moderator
Nope. Read the treasury paper.
You can try to repeat this over and over. But that doesnt make it True.
As I said.
We cant know the Details for sure.
But we can indeed know the Rough Outset.
And the absolute Worst Case Scenario for Scotland in this Outset.
Is still much much better then the Best Case Scenario for Brexit.
And erm.
Thats not entirely Correct to be Honest.
See the one thing that needs mentioning here. Is that Scotlands Budget includes an large number of Payments to the UK.
There is alot of UK Stuff inside that Budget.
Foremost of all the massive Military and Maintenance of Military Facilities.
The Laws etc on what has to be Provided etc is made by Westminster.
And the entire UK is Spending more than it Earns.
So as the entire UK is running a Deficit. Why would Scotland suddenly be required to Break even ?
Scotland is allowed to Run a Debt as well.
In Fact I assume its Impossible for Scotland to not Run a Debt.
Thanks to its Life as an Colony. Scotland is way less Developed than England.
So it will need to make some Investments beyond just 8% over the Budget. To actually Grow a bit before Worrying about having a Debt.
Nope, check up on basic economic theory.
No, they're not. Read the methodology and look at the bodies that certify it. Then look at who is responsible (and has been for the last decade) for assembling and publishing it. It's an official government statistic - as reliable as all of the others that we've called on in other debates. Will it be perfect? No. But it will be accurate enough for the purpose it was assembled for - the purpose we're putting it to now.
Hmmmm. Wings over Scotland vs. the UK Statistics Authority. Wings over Scotland vs. the IFS. Wings over Scotland vs. The Scottish Government.
Frankly, this smacks of a refusal to accept facts that aren't wanted. Let's approach the topic from another angle. If GERS isn't reliable, then what is the fiscal baseline from which Scotland would leave the UK? What alternate data exists? If there's no alternate data, surely the sensible thing to do is to accept what figures are available?
Interesting element which is often missed in this conversation; Scotland has a huge proportion of direct fiscal liability from renewables. Who is going to pick up that bill in the event of separation? Scottish generation costs about £1bn per annum right now (not sure if that's accounted for in GERS or not).
GERS is a political animal with all the credibility of same for the reasons I previously outlined, the UK have been an abject failure for Scotland and the North of Ireland. We won`t even mention Wales, which is a shambles of Eastern European proportions.
So, to be clear, you're saying that the SNP-led Scottish government is in fact deliberately assembling and publishing dubious economic statistics that undermine the case for independence?
I`m saying that the true figure in relation to GERS are opaque for a purpose, figures and liabilities are interpreted for the UK as a whole with Scotland as a part. It is in no way comparable to the collation and interpretation of figures and liabilities of an independent nation such as Ireland or Norway.
Sin é.