General / Off-Topic is scotland leaving the UK?

The suicide is happening but it is not Scotland's doing.

England has locked Scotland and Northern Ireland into a room. It's going to blow its brains out, followed by Ireland, then itself with the signing of Article 50.

Scotland scampering away from England is not ideal, but I don't see that it has any alternative.

Reminds me of this, which I noticed yesterday.

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Ultimately, the point is moot. The Scottish government accepts the figures. The SNP accepts the figures. The media accepts the figures. These are the figures. You're right to say that spending and revenue will change. Scotland may indeed spend less on (for example) defense. That's the discussion to be had.

But, in the context of the EU, right now it looks like Scotland might have to shave about 7% off public spending in order to qualify for re-joining the EU (under their fiscal rules). Do we want that? Is there a plan to grow the economy to make up the shortfall? If so, what is it? That's the conversation.

Believe it or not Scotland is a lifeboat from the UK. By every metric, GDP, productivity, education, the UK is lagging behind its European counterparts and it has nothing to do with EU membership. Over the last 10 yrs incomes in the UK have dropped by 10.4%, the only EU country that is worse is Greece.
On top of that all you have seen in the UK over the last number of years is the country selling it assets abroad, it's just not a sustainable basis for economic well being.
 
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Well as I previously linked the UK sovereign confirmed its sole liability for the debt in 2014, so Scotland has no debt (despite the fact it hasn`t or had the power to borrow debt) and as such cannot default. As for financial prudence the financial markets would mark down Scotland and reduce its credit rating it if was stupid enough to accept any debt liabilities without in turn receiving its corresponding share of the assets. Now tell me, how is this so hard for persons of reasonable intelligence to comprehend, why do I have to keep repeating the obvious & where is the contradiction here?

What you or I think is completely irrelevant as it will be up to the lawyers if the situation arises. And something to consider is whether the UK will legally exist in the same way without Scotland but that's another rabbit hole. Yes, Scotland is part of a corporate entity aka the UK, so to speak, but if that entity is dissolved and reformed in 2 parts... What, does all liability go away?

My point is that any unilateral flounce in any international talks will likely cause massive problems. Especially if the people who you are negotiating with currently own a big chunk of your infrastructure and will be your largest trading partners.

Not sure what you're last sentence is on about as this is all speculation, your position included. If a referendum happens (I'm 50/50 on that) we don't know on what terms it will be, let alone what will happen in any post-vote scenario.

The suicide is happening but it is not Scotland's doing.

England has locked Scotland and Northern Ireland into a room. It's going to blow its brains out, followed by Ireland, then itself with the signing of Article 50.

Scotland scampering away from England is not ideal, but I don't see that it has any alternative.

Hey, I'm pro remain and while I don't want the UK to split up I can completely see where Scottish nationalists are coming from...
 
What you or I think is completely irrelevant as it will be up to the lawyers if the situation arises. And something to consider is whether the UK will legally exist in the same way without Scotland but that's another rabbit hole. Yes, Scotland is part of a corporate entity aka the UK, so to speak, but if that entity is dissolved and reformed in 2 parts... What, does all liability go away?

My point is that any unilateral flounce in any international talks will likely cause massive problems. Especially if the people who you are negotiating with currently own a big chunk of your infrastructure and will be your largest trading partners.

Not sure what you're last sentence is on about as this is all speculation, your position included. If a referendum happens (I'm 50/50 on that) we don't know on what terms it will be, let alone what will happen in any post-vote scenario.



Hey, I'm pro remain and while I don't want the UK to split up I can completely see where Scottish nationalists are coming from...

I would appreciate it if you could point out where I am wrong in my assertions so I can try and redress same once and for all. I'm not fond of going around in circles.
 
Scotland is a country, joined to the rest of the UK in a union. It's not a single country breaking up, it's one country wanting to end a union with another country.

ok, then I'm really lost. If Scotland is a free country, and wants to leave the union, why doesn't it just leave the Union? Why does it have to ask permission to leave?
 
ok, then I'm really lost. If Scotland is a free country, and wants to leave the union, why doesn't it just leave the Union? Why does it have to ask permission to leave?
Since a long time ago; like about 300 years just after the Romans left, England has had the impression that it OWNS Scotland.
 
ok, then I'm really lost. If Scotland is a free country, and wants to leave the union, why doesn't it just leave the Union? Why does it have to ask permission to leave?
Scotland isn't a free country, though. It's mostly still controlled by Westminster.
 
I understand you have an emotional attachment to the UK and that`s fair enough and perfectly understandable, and from an economics point of view if it were six of one or half dozen of the other, you would opt for the union. I have no issue with your beliefs on that front.

Personally I believe Scotland will thrive with indy like the multiple countries that have previously tread that well worn path. On the democracy side of things, I think its beyond any argument that there is a very major democratic deficit in Scotland as part of the UK, case in point the Brexit vote to remain being totally disregarded, the fact the Tories are the real government of Scotland at the end of the day despite dismal support for same in Scotland. It just cannot be described as a representative democracy. The people best to govern Scotland in all its facets are its own people. This is an indisputable fact seen across the globe.

Edit-Re the Federal solution, England will never accommodate such a patchwork process and its too late. People should have grasped at this stage that the English just think of Scotland and Wales as greater England under the convenience of Britain.

Re: The democratic deficit; well I can understand that to a point, but the flip side of the coin is that democratic deficit exists all over the UK (and arguably in every representative democracy in the world). There's always people, groups or geographic areas who consistently don't get the government they wanted and voted. Should they all cede from their nations or systems of government? Where do we draw this line of "we don't get the government we want".

Even within Scotland, between 15%-22% of voters consistently voted Conservative in the Scottish parliamentary elections since it's rebirth and yet have absolutely no prospect of the government of their choice for at least generations. An uncharitable way of putting it (and I'm not meaning this in a confrontational way and appreciate that this isn't quite the point you're trying to make) is that you prefer one type of democratic deficit to another. I get why, and I get the feeling behind it. But I don't agree with it.

Believe it or not Scotland is a lifeboat from the UK.

Well, that's a topic of some dispute ;) Am I correct in suggesting that you meant that independence could be some sort of lifeboat, given the following?

By every metric, GDP, productivity, education, the UK is lagging behind its European counterparts and it has nothing to do with EU membership. Over the last 10 yrs incomes in the UK have dropped by 10.4%, the only EU country that is worse is Greece.
On top of that all you have seen in the UK over the last number of years is the country selling it assets abroad, it's just not a sustainable basis for economic well being.

I think I'd dispute some of your claims there (certainly a glance at OECD PISA rankings don't agree with you), but they're not strictly germane to the point either way.

Scotland will effectively have the same starting point as the UK excluding London and will effectively diverge from that point. What I want to hear about is the policy proposals that will improve everything, irrespective of our ranking against the world, Europe or UK. And I want to believe they're achievable. And I want to see why the devolved government couldn't do whatever those solutions may be under the current arrangements.

Even if I were to accept your claims about the decline of the UK, the case has to be made on how an independent Scotland is going to be better than a devolved Scotland.
 
ok, then I'm really lost. If Scotland is a free country, and wants to leave the union, why doesn't it just leave the Union? Why does it have to ask permission to leave?

We did that in Ireland in 1919 declaring an independent republic, the British who had the biggest military machine in the world at the time did what they always did in Ireland and sent in the army. War followed and they ended up turfed out in 1922. You`d hope there would be more respect for democracy these days but we live in strange times.
 
ok, then I'm really lost. If Scotland is a free country, and wants to leave the union, why doesn't it just leave the Union? Why does it have to ask permission to leave?

Dude, you're being super lazy about this. Don't expect people to spoon feed you, but rather go read up on Scotland in Wikipedia. You're obviously interested, so read up.
 
Re: The democratic deficit; well I can understand that to a point, but the flip side of the coin is that democratic deficit exists all over the UK (and arguably in every representative democracy in the world). There's always people, groups or geographic areas who consistently don't get the government they wanted and voted. Should they all cede from their nations or systems of government? Where do we draw this line of "we don't get the government we want".

Even within Scotland, between 15%-22% of voters consistently voted Conservative in the Scottish parliamentary elections since it's rebirth and yet have absolutely no prospect of the government of their choice for at least generations. An uncharitable way of putting it (and I'm not meaning this in a confrontational way and appreciate that this isn't quite the point you're trying to make) is that you prefer one type of democratic deficit to another. I get why, and I get the feeling behind it. But I don't agree with it.



Well, that's a topic of some dispute ;) Am I correct in suggesting that you meant that independence could be some sort of lifeboat, given the following?



I think I'd dispute some of your claims there (certainly a glance at OECD PISA rankings don't agree with you), but they're not strictly germane to the point either way.

Scotland will effectively have the same starting point as the UK excluding London and will effectively diverge from that point. What I want to hear about is the policy proposals that will improve everything, irrespective of our ranking against the world, Europe or UK. And I want to believe they're achievable. And I want to see why the devolved government couldn't do whatever those solutions may be under the current arrangements.

Even if I were to accept your claims about the decline of the UK, the case has to be made on how an independent Scotland is going to be better than a devolved Scotland.

I have gone through and posted multiple stats on the Brexit thread previously including from the OECD site and other sources. Yes Scotland can be a lifeboat and thrive as an independent nation. If you`re a Scot I find it sad that you have been conditioned to have so little faith in the capacity and ingenuity of your fellow countrymen with the resources of your country. You can bring a horse to water but you can`t make him drink it. The rest I leave to yourself.
 
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I would appreciate it if you could point out where I am wrong in my assertions so I can try and redress same once and for all. I'm not fond of going around in circles.

If there are firm legal opinion(s) that iScot can bail out of UK leaving sovereign debt with rUK (that may itself be a new entity) then I'd be interested to see links.

However, ultimately it's all speculation, including your assertions, until it's tested in court or signed off as part of an agreement.

FWIW we have seen countries divide peacefully relatively recently: Czechoslovakia, for instance, although as they were a federation as opposed to a unitary nation as we are then things may work differently. The UK (England + Wales, Scotland, NI, various dependencies) is messy.
 
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If there are firm legal opinion(s) that iScot can bail out of UK leaving sovereign debt with rUK (that may itself be a new entity) then I'd be interested to see links.

However, ultimately it's all speculation, including your assertions, until it's tested in court or signed off as part of an agreement.

FWIW we have seen countries divide peacefully relatively recently: Czechoslovakia, for instance, although as they were a federation as opposed to a unitary nation as we are then things may work differently. The UK (England + Wales, Scotland, NI, various dependencies) is messy.

As previously posted a few pages back, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10567478/UK-guarantees-independent-Scotlands-debt.html.
 
Do you know what the S stands for in RBS?

This is the same RBS that is governed by and under the responsibility of the Bank Of England and UK banking authority.

Edit - maybe you think Britain is responsible for New England or New York in the US.
 
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This is same RBS that is governed by and under the responsibility of the Bank Of England and UK banking authority.

Do you mean the RBS that was rescued/bailied out by The Bank of England and allowed to live on by a Westminster government despite nearly bringing the whole UK to its knees?
 
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