Notice that your 3 and 4 are added by the probe phase, and you're comparing this to the current situation. You could add 3 and 4 to the second scenario as well. Plus in the first scenario you are relying as much on the RNGesus.
Now I'm with you on the 'n point'. The 'n point' has got to go. I think most agree. Also the way you phrase is has something to do with it. The way I am advocating exploration to be:
1. honk and pray to RNGesus (this is a step that is the same in whatever process is decided upon)
2. get information on the planet types and system configuration (bolded is where we part ways) and perhaps an indicator of certain POIs, with low accuracy, meaning there will be many duds, but this might draw in explorers
3. resolve the signals, get confirmation on the indicators or find out the indicators were indeed duds
4. in case of confirmation, fly to planet, launch probes
5. interact with POIs
So our steps aren't that different. Only the bolded part is.
You're assuming a lot in that post.
First I am not even considering whether or how much of the system map is revealed. That's a whole other can of worms, and I thought by now you'd know I'm in favor of either a limited (numberless black sphere) map or revamp of filters function in order for them to stay relevant. So you're kind of relitigating settled points here (between the 2 of us anyway).
Second, I did take into account the probes when considering "updating" the old mechanic, otherwise the content opportunity ratio would have been 4:1 instead of 2:1
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