DW2. Who's got the betting pool?

Anyone started a pool yet? No real bets, just for fun.

How many pilots who signed up, never participate?
How many drop out in the first four weeks?
How many drop out before BP?
How many never finish?

Better still ...
How many SRVs will be destroyed during the expedition?
How many ships will be destroyed on the expedition?

Will someone be keeping track of these statistics? History will want to know these things.
It won't be easy since we can't all be in the same instances and won't be interacting with all 7000 ships.

I say, ~20% drop out before launch and never leave the bubble.
Maybe 2% of the ships destroyed along the way, which is 140 ships out of 7000
SRV loss is harder to guess at. 25% would be over a thousand SRVs which wouldn't be hard to imagine. It'll probably be higher though.
 
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I think there will be about a 50% completion rate. As to how many of those drop out before BP, or in the first few weeks? Anyone's guess. :D
 
Dropping out in the first 4 weeks will definitely be me lol. Still feel a bit burnt out, although I'm hoping the fairly slow pace of 20 mins a day will mean I'll keep going.
 
Dropping out in the first 4 weeks will definitely be me lol. Still feel a bit burnt out, although I'm hoping the fairly slow pace of 20 mins a day will mean I'll keep going.
I understand the burnout. After my last expedition I stopped playing for a month or two and only came back to prep for DW2

Even if you don't make it to every meetup, you can still catch up a waypoint or two in a short time so don't feel like you have to be there every week.
I fell behind a caught back up a few times on my last expedition due to vacations and other RL stuff happening.
 
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Holy cow, dark grey on black background.

How many leave after the 1st CG?
How many leave after the 2nd?

How many not only destroy themselves but crash into others on the ground causing someone who "did it right" to have a bad day?
 
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It's all black on white for me. Not sure how that happens for others.
I may have pasted some text in there but didn't notice since my forum theme is white.

Mine looks like this
aMY52wO.png
 
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I've been on the roster 11 months. Remains to be seen if I'm going to even participate through holo-methods. Combination of burnout and the exploration changes have dissipated all enthusiasm I had for Elite.
What I suspect might happen, however, is that I get excited by the idea, last-minute-engineer a ship, do a few days then realise I haven't the energy or interest to keep logging in.

How that affects any bet you might have I don't know :D
 
I understand the burnout. After my last expedition I stopped playing for a month or two and only came back to prep for DW2

Likewise. Made it to BP in April with BPE and buckyballing it back from Ishum's Reach after Chapter 4 dropped to get prepared for DW2.

I think 20% not making the start is too low given how many of those signed up would had done so months ago and not be around any more.
 
I understand the burnout. After my last expedition I stopped playing for a month or two and only came back to prep for DW2

Even if you don't make it to every meetup, you can still catch up a waypoint or two in a short time so don't feel like you have to be there every week.
I fell behind a caught back up a few times on my last expedition due to vacations and other RL stuff happening.

Yeah I will miss a few meetups due to holidays for sure. The following weeks will be catch ups weeks me thinks.
 
It would be useful to have these stats collated by EDSM. SRV loss etc is in the journal. But... Can't make it compulsory.
Wonder if FD could track it and publish the results at the end?
 
I'm fairly certain I'll be among those dropping out. But then, that will be because of the FSS and the lack of new content: I would have resigned already, but I'm still keeping my registration open, in the hopes that FD will add stuff in an update later on, while the expedition is still underway. If not, I'll still be doing the CGs, either as part of DW2 myself or not.

Now, the bets... I'd bet a 40-50% success rate. Wouldn't say anything about the first X weeks, but I suspect that for many, the road will end after Sag. A*.
As for ship and SRV destructions? Too many, since they'll mostly be from avoidable causes.
 
I reckon 1000+ never start, and we'll lose another 1000+ in the first 4 weeks.

I'll say 50% make it to BP
 
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I'd be surprised if more than 30% get to BP. Even with half the jumps (roughly) versus DW1, it's still a long haul. Many will get disenchanted when the CG at the core ends and they realise they're only about half way there.
If you never left the bubble before, even 10kly is a heck of a way.

As to SRV loss.... An average of 0.6 each :)
 
I'm with ^, I think many (in all honesty, myself included) are signing up for fomo... That's a long way and there's close to 9k, can't imagine more than 3k make it....which would still be amazing.
 
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