I was at Broo's lazor shop in Muang and did a bit of HGE hunting, I located about 10 of them mostly collecting Imperial shielding plus one with mil grade alloys and one with mil super caps.
Returning to Alliance space I passed through Empire and Federation systems in various states, I took a few notes of the states and drops
Alliance - civil war - mil grade alloys
Empire - civil war - mil grade alloys or mil super caps
Empire - investment - imperial shielding
Empire - none - imperial shielding
Federation - investment - proto heat rads or proto radiolic alloys+proto light alloys or core dynamics composite+proprietary comps
Federation - election - core dynamics composite+proprietary comps
Looks like the HGE state is determined by the faction state listed in the HGE data panel not the overall system state listed in the galmap, unsurprisingly I've maxed out on Imperial shielding and have almost 80 CDC.
Thanks for taking the time to list all that.
After having terrible luck I took some time to note system states and my conclusion is that currently this part of the game is bugged to hell and back.
System LP 98-132
Alliance
STATE:
Gal map = Civil Unrest (EDDB says this also)
System Map = Investment, Civil Unrest, Pirate Attack
HGE timer = Boom State
Materials gathered = Proto Heat radiators, Proto Light alloys, Proto radiolic alloys
The left hand does no know what the right hand is doing
EDIT
I just check the timer again and it listed faction as "H Draconis Resistance" and their state is indeed Boom. They are not the controlling faction anywhere in the system (9% influence).
So, at present, it appears that the state which may or may not determine the materials we can find is linked to the state of a random faction in the system and there is no way of knowing which faction it will be until we arrive.