Ironic that after all the criticism of anti-vaxxers a pandemic would arise that nobody was vaccinated for. I suppose the bright side would be for all of you population control "muh world is going to end because teh climate being ruined by evil conservatives" types it looks like mother nature might be dishing out the solution to overpopulation and resource mismanagement all in one fell swoop.
General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage
- Thread starter Robin of Spiritwood
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Either mother nature is dishing out revenge, or some people are crazy and eat everything that moves without even cooking it properly. Yeh. One of those.
jasonbarron shrugs. Mother nature works in mysterious ways.Either mother nature is dishing out revenge, or some people are crazy and eat everything that moves without even cooking it properly. Yeh. One of those.
And they thought covering it up was a good idea.
Actually, this is a case to show how things turn south without vaccine.
Really? You think there's a vaccine out there for this that people just didn't take?
No, you're twisting words here.
Not so much twisting your words as you making a flawed rebuttal, poster formerly known as Gregg.
You cannot rebute what I said if you don't even make an efford into actually reading it.
WHO Has Admitted an Error in Its Assessment of Wuhan Coronavirus Risk
The World Health Organization, which has sometimes been criticised for its handling of past disease outbreaks, admitted an error on Monday in its risk assessment of China's deadly virus.
www.sciencealert.com
The WHO is trying to fix a bad position. They can't declare the pandemic without the supporting data. But the criticism is sounding more accurate as things get worse.
First death in Beijing reported: a previously perfectly healthy 50 year old man. That bodes very badly for us. It can kill individuals that should be equipped to cope immunologically.
Most of the deaths are in men. Women seem to have better immune defenses.
Still thinking about a potential approach:
It is an RNA virus, and has to recode to DNA to get into our cell nuclei, so like HIV, we can block that step.
China repurposes AbbVie HIV drug as Big Pharma rallies to combat deadly coronavirus
To battle the coronavirus emergency, Chinese government and medical experts are taking some unconventional measures, including publicly backing off-label use of a Big Pharma drug. | To battle the coronavirus emergency, Chinese government and medical experts are taking some unconventional...
Once case number > ICU beds, salvageable cases will start dying, and the deathrates will jump again.
I'll be stocking up for a home treatment station tomorrow for the family.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease:
source: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0127-coronavirus-update.html
source: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0127-coronavirus-update.html
I've updated the table I posted yesterday with the latest official data. Good luck to all. We're gonna need it.
Over 100 dead in China now.
Not really Jason. She is actually quite predictable if you use science and math, which i vaguely remember having endless discussions with you about. This is an example of what I meant saying that people don't understand the consequences of exponential growth. Whenever you have a doubling time, the development speeds up like crazy. Still don't believe that?
With all respect, but meaningful computational biology includes key parameters such as the context specific basic reproduction number or the disease severity (virulence) common to describe spread.
Looking at scientific computational data available, and do note, there is always potential for conflicting interpretation of datasets, yes data available to date allows for continued spread to be a somewhat plausible scenario. Time will tell.
However, don't take it the wrong way please, but personally I would hesitate a lot to post such private "spreadsheet games", as they can easily lead to very wrong conclusions.
It's only only exponential for a certain time, then it starts slowing down, and then it starts declining:
I don't know what's wrong with me. I used to be the born diplomat, but now people tell me that "Your calculations are right, but your arguments are very brutal". Sorry can't help it anymore. I'm taking this potential pandemic pretty relaxed. I've calculated other models for the future of humanity that are way more scary.
I read today that the number of cases in "critical condition" is close to 1000 (according to official Chinese media), which is pretty alarming though. That is 20-25% of the recorded cases. I do not know the official definition of the term "critical condition". Perhaps someone else can explain what the meaning is? Robin?
Hong Kong cuts China transport links as coronavirus toll mounts
Nations scramble to extract citizens from Wuhan as first death is recorded in Beijing
www.theguardian.com
Edit:
Critical
Vital signs are unstable and not within normal limits. Patient may be unconscious. Indicators are unfavorable.
Medical state - Wikipedia
I think it's safe to assume that we don't get all the data from China.
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If you had all the answers I suppose this weird rebuttal would make sense, but since we've exhaustively covered the fact that you don't and only like to give the condescending impression that you do, I think I'll chalk this unsolicited reply as just another example of jasonbarron derangement syndrome, a condition that compels a poster to refute/rebut/argue with me, even when they have no reason or need to.
Back on topic: interestingly, again the western news is barely covering the outbreak this morning.
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