General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

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lysan

lysan
WeComeInPeace said:
I'm normally not much of a gambler, but you wanna bet on that? :)

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The last couple of days the pandemic has grown exponentially outside China, picking up speed, with a doubling time of less than 3 days. That is a similar growth rate of cases as we saw in China before the complete lockdown of several cities.

Now is the time to use 5 minutes of your life to ponder upon what Albert Bartlett meant when he said that:

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”

When you have exponential growth with a doubling time, then the variable you're looking at increases faster and faster. It also means that in the next doubling period that number will increase by an amount equaling the sum of all the numbers up until now. China seems to have the spread somewhat under control, taking drastic measures to limit contact and thereby infections, but in the rest of the World we're now at ~6000 registered cases, which is probably less than 25% of the actual number. Going with what we have, I'd say that the number of cases on monday will be well above 10,000. Then the stock market will react so violently that trade will be shut down, probably globally. Next up will be banks going down. This is much much more serious than 2008, and we haven't seen nothing yet.
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When a cure is found and ETA for release yes, until then buyers market, I’m going to get on this roll coaster because it’s time.

in other news
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
lysan said:
When a cure is found and ETA for release yes, until then buyers market, I’m going to get on this roll coaster because it’s time.

in other news
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In the beginning of the outbreak, there was a lot going on behind the scenes in especially Wuhan, which led to me being very skeptical about the Chinese numbers. As I see it, they (local party officials) were trying to handle the disease themselves, probably because they were afraid to report to Beijing. It then seems that once they lost control, they had to report it, and once it reached Xi, they had a couple of days where they released information in "smaller" portions, but after that the information we get seems pretty trustworthy. I base that on similar trends and numbers when I look at cases outside China. They match, so unless everyone is lying, which is highly unlikely, the Chinese are just in it with all of us, and they have realized that we need to cooperate and share as much information as possible. I might be wrong, but my gut feeling says I'm not.

If you want to invest, I would suggest that you buy gold. That's going through the roof, and we haven't even started yet. The stock market is not safe, but again, I might be wrong, and it's your money.

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Edit: Unless we bypass the tests of a vaccine, which again is very unlikely considering the relatively low estimated fatality rates, ETA of a vaccine is not within this year. Some of that "long time" is due to bureaucratic inefficiencies, which could perhaps be sped up, but most of the time it takes is due to test procedures being time consuming. You need a certain amount of time to detect side effects, and those could be way more serious than the disease. Therefore you start with a low number of test subjects in the first phase, and then more and more in the next phases. That process simply takes time.
 
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lysan

lysan
WeComeInPeace said:
In the beginning of the outbreak, there was a lot going on behind the scenes in especially Wuhan, which led to me being very skeptical about the Chinese numbers. As I see it, they (local party officials) were trying to handle the disease themselves, probably because they were afraid to report to Beijing. It then seems that once they lost control, they had to report it, and once it reached Xi, they had a couple of days where they released information in "smaller" portions, but after that the information we get seems pretty trustworthy. I base that on similar trends and numbers when I look at cases outside China. They match, so unless everyone is lying, which is highly unlikely, the Chinese are just in it with all of us, and they have realized that we need to cooperate and share as much information as possible. I might be wrong, but my gut feeling says I'm not.

If you want to invest, I would suggest that you buy gold. That's going through the roof, and we haven't even started yet. The stock market is not safe, but again, I might be wrong, and it's your money.

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Edit: Unless we bypass the tests of a vaccine, which again is very unlikely considering the relatively low estimated fatality rates, ETA of a vaccine is not within this year. Some of that "long time" is due to bureaucratic inefficiencies, which could perhaps be sped up, but most of the time it takes is due to test procedures being time consuming. You need a certain amount of time to detect side effects, and those could be way more serious than the disease. Therefore you start with a low number of test subjects in the first phase, and then more and more in the next phases. That process simply takes time.
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Yeah I’m already heavy invested in gold so you’re right. 👍
 

Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood
Synkreto said:
Well written .
Glad you are getting better . All the Best for your Kid .

Could you enlighten me a bit about the Facemnasks you are getting ? I am totally clueless...
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Sure -

The designations are based on the % or particles they block.
N95 stops 95%
N99 stops 99%

I got another viral illness case today. Looks OK on X-ray, not a Covid case. We are counting down the 14 days from Carnival, with trepidation.
 

GJ51

GJ51
lysan said:
Yeah I’m already heavy invested in gold so you’re right. 👍
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Spot Gold has already come off it's highs and looking for support at 1585. If it breaks below 1550 it will probably test the 1460 support level.

I'm looking to jump back into the stock "melt up" once the "crisis" is no longer all bad news media hype.

I saw a long time ago that the NASDAQ old high before the current bull run was 4800 and at 9600 it was a double of the previous high and would likely be time for a decent correction on the order of 20 - 50% which isn't unusual after a steady run that doubles a broad index index. The market was just waiting to identify a cause for what they already knew was overdue.

Now it's just a matter of finding the bottom...

Livin off the fat o the land...

What a country
 

ArchEmperor

ArchEmperor
Compare the deaths of last years flu with this new CNN flu.

It is nothing special. It just happened at the same time as the stock market got to the top and the deep state media went with it, as they always do.
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
ArchEmperor said:
Compare the deaths of last years flu with this new CNN flu.

It is nothing special. It just happened at the same time as the stock market got to the top and the deep state media went with it, as they always do.
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Keep dreamin. This is not something CNN invented. It's how nature works. In this case we have become a global society, where many people travel all around the globe daily, and more than half of the global population live close together in cities. That's a "perfect" scenario for a pandemic with a virus as contagious as this.

Regarding how dangerous this virus is: We don't know, and neither do you. If you look at the numbers instead, the current global CFR, being deaths divided by the cases that were resolved, you get

2,933 / (2,933 + 39,761) * 100% = 6.9%

That is much higher than flu (~70 times higher). BEFORE YOU PANIC: It is widely accepted and known, that those numbers primarily represent the more severe cases and therefore the high CFR is not trustworthy. It's probably somewhere between 0.7%-1.4%, but that's still significantly higher than flu (~0.1%). And we honestly don't know for sure yet. Furthermore, even though the CFR might end up being around 1%, if half of the global population gets infected, that's ~40 million deaths, each and every one of them being a human with friends and relatives. Do not underestimate the severity of this, but also remember that it's not armageddon.

Edit: Correction of calculation so that it includes both numbers. My bad.

Edit2: If you want to put those numbers in perspective, during a normal year, ~2 humans die every second somewhere across the globe, or ~56 million people in 2017. In the same year ~4 new humans were born every second, so as things are now, we'll probably end up being more people in 2021 than we are now. That is if we can avoid stigmatisation, civil war, financial collapse and all the rest of the dangers the virus is pushing. Time to grow up and act like it, and that goes for each and every one of us, including me ;)
 
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GJ51

GJ51
I would buy the dip when appropriate, but I have to hold off a bit until I decide between the BMW X3 M40i or the Mercedes AMG43.

After that I'll like start looking for a re-entry point.

All advice greatly appreciated.
 

GJ51

GJ51
Patrick_68000 said:
Everybody dies, yes, but it's not a consolation.

And not all at the same time, for my part.

:)
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It wasn't meant as a consolation.

It's an acknowledgement of an inevitability.

With the exception of suicide, the time is beyond our control.

All the hype and stress won't change that.
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
Even in a situation like this, where we all have a common enemy and a common goal, you people still have to dig trenches and throw mud at each other? You humans... :rolleyes:
 
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