General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage
- Thread starter Robin of Spiritwood
- Start date
- Status
It is just the flu. It is not the plague.
"A pandemic is a situation in which all the citizens are exposed, which is not currently the case", explained to journalists the WHO Director of Emergency Programs, Dr Michael Ryan.
Currently these are mainly localized infection sites.
WHO is the UN of health care.
Of course they are. The UK health minister, has said, (more than once) we are going to postpone it here, until after the winter rush, has stopped in the NHS.
Very seriously indeed. Although I hear that our foreign minister, is going to part the Red Sea and solve all the middle east problems, as well.
I think people are getting hung up on the distinction between epidemic and pandemic.
As for the WHO, most meaningful criticisms have been of how politicized they appear with regard to early deference to China's nonsense narrative of it's own response...which went from oblivious to panicked literally overnight...not that they aren't taking the outbreak seriously.
Technically, COVID-19 isn't the flu and even if it were caused by an influenza strain, calling something "just the flu" doesn't say much of anything.
The plague is harder to spread and easier to treat. Overall, a nasty influenza strain or coronavirus is much more disruptive. The flu kills more people each season than the plague has in the last hundred years while COVID-19 has already killed more people than there have been cases of plague since the 1950s.
As for the WHO, most meaningful criticisms have been of how politicized they appear with regard to early deference to China's nonsense narrative of it's own response...which went from oblivious to panicked literally overnight...not that they aren't taking the outbreak seriously.
Technically, COVID-19 isn't the flu and even if it were caused by an influenza strain, calling something "just the flu" doesn't say much of anything.
The plague is harder to spread and easier to treat. Overall, a nasty influenza strain or coronavirus is much more disruptive. The flu kills more people each season than the plague has in the last hundred years while COVID-19 has already killed more people than there have been cases of plague since the 1950s.
Corona? Nobody drank that urine to begin with.
Hey folks,
I know everybody is tense. Let's take a breath.
We are in this together.
There's a HUGE pile of new info to get through, and I'm short on time because of the situation at work. So I'll just hit the highlights.
- Coronavirus seems to have jumped to dogs. Why this matters? Mutation. Also, if pets are carrying it, quarantines get really tricky. Avoid contact with animals. Maybe this may extend to cows, chickens and swine etc in future. But meat from farm sources is still ok AFAIK.
- The PCR test is now downgraded to 71% accurate. This might be why so many test negative and then go on to become spreaders. Possibly why it is now loose in California. Potentially that mistake could be very costly...
- Instead of PCR swab tests, they suggest a straight up chest CT scan. Look for cotton wool fluffiness hazing in the lung fields, in a patchy pattern. This is 95% accurate, and is how I am diagnosing now.
- Oxygen concentrators are selling out. Please take action in a timely way. You will need a humidifier chamber, a bit of sterile water or saline , plastic tubing and O2 cannulae or masks. Kids take smaller masks. Fat ppl take bigger ones, so buy accordingly. You can resterilize the tubes by soaking in a bucket of bleachy water, or peroxide, just get 3 or 4 sets.
- Airborne precautions means eyewear. You could temporarily use scuba masks to accommodate glasses in a pinch, but see if you can grab up consrtuction yard gear at safety supply places.
- When you go shopping, take along a roll up plastic bag, like a bread bag. Chuck all your handled change into that instead of commingling it with your notes. Stash the change in another bag or a bucket with a lid, it is contaminated. When you have time, gear up, fire up an iron, and iron the @%@* out of it, and clothesline it up in the sun.
I bought a hot air gun to blast mine, and to blast the toilets and sinks when dry. Also for other projects involving shrink wrap and so on.
- Home decon. Consider using a plastic garbage bag in your hallway to collect your outer garments on returning. Leave a T shirt or something to wear close by. Wash up thoroughly.
During this week's economic crash, there was ONE guy that did time it, selling out on Friday before the week started. Name of Mannarino. He stayed in the market longer than me, I pulled my cash some time ago. So he's better than me.
He's the competent opposite of Larry More Cocaine Please Kudlow, but his blogs suggest he's nutty too. You could look into him if you are so inclined, regarding timing this market and strategic investing. His social media is skyrocketing.
If however you have respect for Kudlow, then proceed accordingly.
If you want me to apologize for hurting your feeeelings, by telling the truth, try breath holding till I do. You bought the dip? Tough nookie. Going to buy in next week? Be my guest. I could be wrong.
If it makes you sad, use your own hankie. Kudlow can't even hack the Economics, his own field. I outperformed him last week. In Economics. ME. A nobody.
You seriously think he's there to FIX a pandemic nobody can stop? With zero knowledge of medicine? And a coke brain made of the finest Swiss Cheese?
No. He's a Scapegoat. His function is to take the heat from the incumbent for the election. Because the purpose of the Task Force has zero to do with fixing the pandemic, because your personal survival matters
Not
ONE
Whit
To your admin.
Can you smell the coffee yet? Trust me. I have the same kind of Admin here.
YOU ARE DISPOSABLE. The task force is Economic. The choice to save the Economy and ignore Quarantine has already been made.
Look, there are 2 ways to go. Quarantine and kill the Economy. Push cases slowly into ICU care, maximize the people saved. But lose the Election.
Or the Quarantine, send everybody out to work. Save the Economy, but get a fast epidemic, overload ICUs, let the surplus die. Blame Task Force Scapegoat, the virus, the Dems, our local Moderator, Socialism, win the Election.
But how can you know this Robin?
Well, when the flight to move the Ship passengers arrived, some were positive. CDC says, No Way we put all on one plane.
State Dept politicos overrode the scientists.
They put up a duct tape and cellophane barrier.
What's the phrase, Larry?
" Almost Airtight"
I predicted 3 things. Pandemic. Crash. Sick in 12 weeks.
All came true.
Want info elsewhere? Cool. Go there.
Want lies? Cool.
Big market. Pick your poison.
Ok thats the main stuff.
Some personal things-
My kid is sick.
We are equipped and will handle it at home. Yes I am stressed. Like you couldn't tell.
Admin called me in after I griped about the situation and threatened to quit.
We are getting PPE, and no crappy n95 masks, the deluxe N99 ones. It's so nice to have disposable gear, instead of disposable people. And double shifts go into next week too. Too bad my kid got sick.
Our in house case of pneumonia is getting better. We will send him home soon.
The complicated case with multiple things we exported is also recovering, and expected to make it. I got to say, the team in the referral centre is taking names and buttkicking to salvage tough stuff like that.
My centre is still doing all the other work, setting fractures, dialysis, heart attacks at 3 am etc. I'm getting 4-5 hours most nights.
Every PCR test run locally is officially negative. Is it that our batch is just defective? IDK. Nobody knows. No shortages yet at the groceries. Citizens are blithe. I'm buying again tomorrow, and heading up to see my brother the engineer to start a couple projects involving projectiles, high voltages, and gelatinized drug mixtures. One has to decompress.
My back is better. My chest too. Fever essentially gone. Ran numbers through an epidemiology sim last night, and it gave me chest pain. So many going to die. But not yet. Maybe something good will happen. 80 plus studies coming soon out of the Chinese situation..
And the US still has Anthony Fauci running the real show, not the Tres Amigos of "task force Scapegoat" . He's good. He can even spell "Corona" unlike one of his bosses, and drink it unlike the other. I have confidence in him.
So far, so good. Out.
I know everybody is tense. Let's take a breath.
We are in this together.
There's a HUGE pile of new info to get through, and I'm short on time because of the situation at work. So I'll just hit the highlights.
- Coronavirus seems to have jumped to dogs. Why this matters? Mutation. Also, if pets are carrying it, quarantines get really tricky. Avoid contact with animals. Maybe this may extend to cows, chickens and swine etc in future. But meat from farm sources is still ok AFAIK.
- The PCR test is now downgraded to 71% accurate. This might be why so many test negative and then go on to become spreaders. Possibly why it is now loose in California. Potentially that mistake could be very costly...
- Instead of PCR swab tests, they suggest a straight up chest CT scan. Look for cotton wool fluffiness hazing in the lung fields, in a patchy pattern. This is 95% accurate, and is how I am diagnosing now.
- Oxygen concentrators are selling out. Please take action in a timely way. You will need a humidifier chamber, a bit of sterile water or saline , plastic tubing and O2 cannulae or masks. Kids take smaller masks. Fat ppl take bigger ones, so buy accordingly. You can resterilize the tubes by soaking in a bucket of bleachy water, or peroxide, just get 3 or 4 sets.
- Airborne precautions means eyewear. You could temporarily use scuba masks to accommodate glasses in a pinch, but see if you can grab up consrtuction yard gear at safety supply places.
- When you go shopping, take along a roll up plastic bag, like a bread bag. Chuck all your handled change into that instead of commingling it with your notes. Stash the change in another bag or a bucket with a lid, it is contaminated. When you have time, gear up, fire up an iron, and iron the @%@* out of it, and clothesline it up in the sun.
I bought a hot air gun to blast mine, and to blast the toilets and sinks when dry. Also for other projects involving shrink wrap and so on.
- Home decon. Consider using a plastic garbage bag in your hallway to collect your outer garments on returning. Leave a T shirt or something to wear close by. Wash up thoroughly.
During this week's economic crash, there was ONE guy that did time it, selling out on Friday before the week started. Name of Mannarino. He stayed in the market longer than me, I pulled my cash some time ago. So he's better than me.
He's the competent opposite of Larry More Cocaine Please Kudlow, but his blogs suggest he's nutty too. You could look into him if you are so inclined, regarding timing this market and strategic investing. His social media is skyrocketing.
If however you have respect for Kudlow, then proceed accordingly.
If you want me to apologize for hurting your feeeelings, by telling the truth, try breath holding till I do. You bought the dip? Tough nookie. Going to buy in next week? Be my guest. I could be wrong.
If it makes you sad, use your own hankie. Kudlow can't even hack the Economics, his own field. I outperformed him last week. In Economics. ME. A nobody.
You seriously think he's there to FIX a pandemic nobody can stop? With zero knowledge of medicine? And a coke brain made of the finest Swiss Cheese?
No. He's a Scapegoat. His function is to take the heat from the incumbent for the election. Because the purpose of the Task Force has zero to do with fixing the pandemic, because your personal survival matters
Not
ONE
Whit
To your admin.
Can you smell the coffee yet? Trust me. I have the same kind of Admin here.
YOU ARE DISPOSABLE. The task force is Economic. The choice to save the Economy and ignore Quarantine has already been made.
Look, there are 2 ways to go. Quarantine and kill the Economy. Push cases slowly into ICU care, maximize the people saved. But lose the Election.
Or the Quarantine, send everybody out to work. Save the Economy, but get a fast epidemic, overload ICUs, let the surplus die. Blame Task Force Scapegoat, the virus, the Dems, our local Moderator, Socialism, win the Election.
But how can you know this Robin?
Well, when the flight to move the Ship passengers arrived, some were positive. CDC says, No Way we put all on one plane.
State Dept politicos overrode the scientists.
They put up a duct tape and cellophane barrier.
What's the phrase, Larry?
" Almost Airtight"
I predicted 3 things. Pandemic. Crash. Sick in 12 weeks.
All came true.
Want info elsewhere? Cool. Go there.
Want lies? Cool.
Big market. Pick your poison.
Ok thats the main stuff.
Some personal things-
My kid is sick.
We are equipped and will handle it at home. Yes I am stressed. Like you couldn't tell.
Admin called me in after I griped about the situation and threatened to quit.
We are getting PPE, and no crappy n95 masks, the deluxe N99 ones. It's so nice to have disposable gear, instead of disposable people. And double shifts go into next week too. Too bad my kid got sick.
Our in house case of pneumonia is getting better. We will send him home soon.
The complicated case with multiple things we exported is also recovering, and expected to make it. I got to say, the team in the referral centre is taking names and buttkicking to salvage tough stuff like that.
My centre is still doing all the other work, setting fractures, dialysis, heart attacks at 3 am etc. I'm getting 4-5 hours most nights.
Every PCR test run locally is officially negative. Is it that our batch is just defective? IDK. Nobody knows. No shortages yet at the groceries. Citizens are blithe. I'm buying again tomorrow, and heading up to see my brother the engineer to start a couple projects involving projectiles, high voltages, and gelatinized drug mixtures. One has to decompress.
My back is better. My chest too. Fever essentially gone. Ran numbers through an epidemiology sim last night, and it gave me chest pain. So many going to die. But not yet. Maybe something good will happen. 80 plus studies coming soon out of the Chinese situation..
And the US still has Anthony Fauci running the real show, not the Tres Amigos of "task force Scapegoat" . He's good. He can even spell "Corona" unlike one of his bosses, and drink it unlike the other. I have confidence in him.
So far, so good. Out.
Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'
Once the vaccine is developed, it will take at least 90 days to complete the regulatory process and potentially more to enter the marketplace.
m.jpost.com
stocks will go up in 3.2.1....
Well written .
Glad you are getting better . All the Best for your Kid .
Could you enlighten me a bit about the Facemnasks you are getting ? I am totally clueless...
I'm normally not much of a gambler, but you wanna bet on that?
The last couple of days the pandemic has grown exponentially outside China, picking up speed, with a doubling time of less than 3 days. That is a similar growth rate of cases as we saw in China before the complete lockdown of several cities.
Now is the time to use 5 minutes of your life to ponder upon what Albert Bartlett meant when he said that:
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
When you have exponential growth with a doubling time, then the variable you're looking at increases faster and faster. It also means that in the next doubling period that number will increase by an amount equaling the sum of all the numbers up until now. China seems to have the spread somewhat under control, taking drastic measures to limit contact and thereby infections, but in the rest of the World we're now at ~6000 registered cases, which is probably less than 25% of the actual number. Going with what we have, I'd say that the number of cases on monday will be well above 10,000. Then the stock market will react so violently that trade will be shut down, probably globally. Next up will be banks going down. This is much much more serious than 2008, and we haven't seen nothing yet.
Last edited:
I'm sorry to hear about your kid. Best wishes is kind of like "thoughts and prayers", which honestly is HS, but I've been following this closely since mid January, and there is basically only one thing that I've found really positive so far, being that kids, for unknown reasons, seems to be much less affected by the disease:
Last edited:
Not sure whether this is common to you guys, but the German Ministry of Health actually calls the Virus SARS-CoV-2, stating it has officiall been changed to that on Feb 11th . The disease caused by the Virus is called CoviD-19 .
www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de
With the number of confirmed cases in Germany growing, one having surfaced I think 2 days ago in a town about 35kms from where I live ( my Sister actually works there ), I am starting to think about getting protection gear . Masks and glasses I am thinking, but actually have no clue what works, and what is good . Researching at the moment, in tandem with my Nephew, who lives in that town where the confirmed case popped up, with his family . Any advice on the matter would be greatly appreciated . I am aware that the question of disposal needs to get answered, too...just again have no clue how XD .
404
With the number of confirmed cases in Germany growing, one having surfaced I think 2 days ago in a town about 35kms from where I live ( my Sister actually works there ), I am starting to think about getting protection gear . Masks and glasses I am thinking, but actually have no clue what works, and what is good . Researching at the moment, in tandem with my Nephew, who lives in that town where the confirmed case popped up, with his family . Any advice on the matter would be greatly appreciated . I am aware that the question of disposal needs to get answered, too...just again have no clue how XD .
The name of the virus is SARS-cov-2. It shares a lot genetic material with SARS (~70%) and it's probably a mutated SARS virus. However, it's NOT Sars. It's a new virus, belonging to the coronavirus family, just like a common cold, MERS and SARS.Not sure whether this is common to you guys, but the German Ministry of Health actually calls the Virus SARS-CoV-2, stating it has officiall been changed to that on Feb 11th . The disease caused by the Virus is called CoviD-19 .
404
With the number of confirmed cases in Germany growing, one having surfaced I think 2 days ago in a town about 35kms from where I live ( my Sister actually works there ), I am starting to think about getting protection gear . Masks and glasses I am thinking, but actually have no clue what works, and what is good . Researching at the moment, in tandem with my Nephew, who lives in that town where the confirmed case popped up, with his family . Any advice on the matter would be greatly appreciated . I am aware that the question of disposal needs to get answered, too...just again have no clue how XD .
With regards to masks: Don't bother, unless you're infected. The masks won't protect you. If you're infected, wearing a mask can protect people around you to a certain degree, but the virus spreads in any thinkable way, including urine and feces. It can likely survive for days on surfaces, so wash your hands as often as possible, and try to avoid touching your eyes, nostrils and mouth. That's where the virus enters the organism. Also, it seems that if you get infected with a large dose of virus, that makes it harder for your imune system to cope. Again, washing hands will reduce the risk of that considerably.
Avoid unnecessary contact and avoid touching surfaces that many people touch, like handrails, buttons on an ATM etc. If you need to withdraw cash, use a paper napkin between your hand and the buttons, and dispose the napkin immediately. And be aware that money changes hands quite a lot, so consider putting money in "quarantine" for a couple of days when possible. Generally, consider everything a potential risk, but honestly, this is so contagious that it's difficult bordering to impossible to protect oneself properly. Therefore try and follow the things I mention above, and try to reduce the exposure as much as possible.
Thanks a lot, that is very helpfull .
When thinking PPE, I am not thinking papermasks, rather fullon FFP3 Masks ( thats an EU classifiaction I think ) and matching goggles . My Nephew is honestly considering getting fullbody pandemic PPE sets...looks like its too late though anyways .
- Status