General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Morbad]

It is dubious that the USA would have the testing capacity to reflect that future number. and there may be a slowdown from the defensive measures taken. But that all pales compared to the sobering reality that only a fraction of the true case load is actually confirmed. We might be as much as an Order of Magnitude higher according to the epidemiologists. Going conservatively with half that, we have over 15 million cases active by Easter.

Quite a few areas in the US are only doing testing of health personnel and patients with overt symptoms. There aren't enough tests to go around and the number of exposed and infected is likely to outstrip the capacity to test for some time. The overwhelming bulk of those infected are never going to be tested and most confirmations will come well after the fact.

Most of the victims will be older male churchgoers. Like my dad. Maybe like yours, or even like you too. If you live in the affected area, you should prepare for a tough time ahead.

To take some advice for myself from the forum, I will stop worrying about that population now.

Problem is that neither pandemics, nor the fallout from them, are very discriminant things and virtually none of us exist in a vacuum.

I’m not sure what is up or down too many different informations floating around.

The information coming from medical personnel and health officials is pretty consistent.

 

[Patrick_68000]

The deaths will trail behind the cases as its not instantly fatal. In a few weeks the deaths will probably start to drop.

Hopefully there will be no further waves after the drop, when people come together again.

 

[Synkreto]

Hopefully there will be no further waves after the drop, when people come together again.

Our knowledge about development of the pandemy, therefore accuracy of predictions of the future, is positively related to the extend testing and surveillance is being done globally .

As it looks at the moment...once anywhere in the world beats the first Wave...as long as it is still going around the world...it will come back and try to get another Wave going, 100%

 

[Ian Skippy]

Edit: Oh, and Robin, Gallup released a poll and job approval had soared to 60%

It is the same here: popularity of our PM surged following the first two public addresses. Whether this is a longer term gain or not will become obvious in the next two weeks. Many people felt initially re-assured, and are often to this day confident that nothing really bad will happen to us; the crisis will primarily remain a foreign thing.

Crudely put: if it turns out we 'perform' at least as well as Belgium and Germany many will mock the actions of these countries and we praise our leadership for being reasonable and not over-reacting. If, on the other hand, the body count surges...

 

[Patrick_68000]

American Perspective:

This past flu season in the USA (ended in February) resulted in roughly 50 Million infected people, and 50,000 deaths. Again, just in the USA.

Also, last year in the USA we lost roughly 37,000 people to car accidents.

As far as COVID-19, today America is up to 680 deaths - here's hoping it doesn't come close to rivaling Car Accidents and the Flu this year.

In many countries they speak of tens of thousands of deaths to come, but at the moment we don't see that.

Hope the forecast will be wrong.

 

[Patrick_68000]

On Dutch TV they were interviewing people out on the streets, and one elderly lady said she knew for sure that the more you try to avoid a disease the more likely it was you'd catch it, so it was best to be out and about as much as possible.

It's not false. I like this lady.

But come out with the social distancing, of course.

Staying locked up for several weeks can also be harmful for the physical and psychological health.

 

[Stigbob]

It is the same here: popularity of our PM surged following the first two public addresses. Whether this is a longer term gain or not will become obvious in the next two weeks. Many people felt initially re-assured, and are often to this day confident that nothing really bad will happen to us; the crisis will primarily remain a foreign thing.

People want strong leadership and clear information in a crisis, even if its wrong. My biggest criticism of the UK government so far is they wasted time on the voluntary quarantine instead of getting all dictatorial about it in the first place.

Crudely put: if it turns out we 'perform' at least as well as Belgium and Germany many will mock the actions of these countries and we praise our leadership for being reasonable and not over-reacting. If, on the other hand, the body count surges...

You'll probably follow the same path Italy, Spain and now the UK did. Advisory then switching to compulsory as it spreads.

 

[lysan]

Quite a few areas in the US are only doing testing of health personnel and patients with overt symptoms. There aren't enough tests to go around and the number of exposed and infected is likely to outstrip the capacity to test for some time. The overwhelming bulk of those infected are never going to be tested and most confirmations will come well after the fact.



Problem is that neither pandemics, nor the fallout from them, are very discriminant things and virtually none of us exist in a vacuum.



The information coming from medical personnel and health officials is pretty consistent.

That’s why we keep the compound in a lockdown, no one goes out and no one come in. This is not a time where we want to gamble.

 

[Ian Skippy]

Ok. Check this:

1) our schools are currently closed till April 6th.

2) they will be re-opened if an upcoming report from the crisis team recommends this. If not, they remain closed.

3) if the April 6th deadline arrives before the report is finished they remain closed.

4) the crisis team has stated that the report will take a minimum of six weeks from the day they started to be completed.

5) they started yesterday.

Our government, at this time, is unwilling to confirm whether April 6th is more or less than six weeks away. Parents REALLY want the schools to re-open.

 

[Synkreto]

Ok. Check this:

1) our schools are currently closed till April 6th.

2) they will be re-opened if an upcoming report from the crisis team recommends this. If not, they remain closed.

3) if the April 6th deadline arrives before the report is finished they remain closed.

4) the crisis team has stated that the report will take a minimum of six weeks from the day they started to be completed.

5) they started yesterday.

Our government, at this time, is unwilling to confirm whether April 6th is more or less than six weeks away. Parents REALLY want the schools to re-open.

Comedy Gold .

 

[Stigbob]

Comedy Gold .

I think they've already made the switch from advisory to compulsory I mentioned above, but don't want to say so yet.

 

[lysan]

It's not false. I like this lady.

But come out with the social distancing, of course.

Staying locked up for several weeks can also be harmful for the physical and psychological health.

We will be just fine...

 

[Ian Skippy]

It's not false. I like this lady.

But come out with the social distancing, of course.

Staying locked up for several weeks can also be harmful for the physical and psychological health.

She was at a busy market.

 

[askavir]

On Dutch TV they were interviewing people out on the streets, and one elderly lady said she knew for sure that the more you try to avoid a disease the more likely it was you'd catch it, so it was best to be out and about as much as possible.

Maybe that explains why in Portugal the elders are the most adamant resistants to staying home. They keep roaming the streets, no farts given.

Portugal streets is like a post-apocalyptic movie in which only the elders have survived. Today is pension collection day, I fear many of the oldest among them are going to get mugged on their way from the bank (vast majority of our elders still withdraw their entire pension at once and keep it at home). I hope police keeps an extra eye today.

 

[Rubbernuke]

Staying locked up for several weeks can also be harmful for the physical and psychological health.

As opposed to actually catching something that has killed so many old people. She is an idiot for chancing it at this time.

Considering most of Western society can now be engaged with sat in a chair, its incredible people can't even do that.

 

[Patrick_68000]

She was at a busy market.

No good !

 

[Patrick_68000]

The containment measures enabled a clear improvement of the air quality in the Paris region from the first week, according to an initial assessment. During the week of March 16 to 20, the improvement observed was around 20 to 30%, following a drop in emissions of more than 60% for nitrogen oxides.

 

[Wotthe Dickens]

in the uk, schools are closed.
But no they’re not.
they are still open for key workers kids- (and the key worker list is pretty big).
All the teachers I know feel they have no support from the gov. And no ppe.
How are other countries doing their school shutdown? Are they absolute? Or some kids still at school?
The other bit of news from uk, Nhs frontline doctors are threatening to quit because of no / substandard ppe.

Doctors threaten to quit NHS over shortage of protective kit

Call for NHS recruits to tackle Covid-19 pandemic undermined by lack of essential supplies

www.theguardian.com

I wonder why our PM feels these people can be cannon fodder?

 

[Ian Skippy]

And some more wonderful news from our scientific crisis team. Apparently we will decide the coming few days whether the measures are working, because it takes 14 days to have effect. And as outcome measure they use 'daily new cases'. This ignores that:

1) Incubation median time is 5 days, and 97.5% shows symptoms within 11.5 days. In other words, if after 12 days there are no effects you ain't going to see drastic changes after 14. The 14-days limit is for quarantine, not policy evaluation.

2) They have drastically reduced testing so they 'can maintain current rate for weeks to come'.

So we're basically about to find out if testing less results in less cases. Or in other words: are we cutting testing down faster than the virus is spreading?

 

[Ian Skippy]

in the uk, schools are closed.
But no they’re not.
they are still open for key workers kids- (and the key worker list is pretty big).
All the teachers I know feel they have no support from the gov. And no ppe.
How are other countries doing their school shutdown? Are they absolute? Or some kids still at school?
The other bit of news from uk, Nhs frontline doctors are threatening to quit because of no / substandard ppe.

Doctors threaten to quit NHS over shortage of protective kit

Call for NHS recruits to tackle Covid-19 pandemic undermined by lack of essential supplies

www.theguardian.com

I wonder why our PM feels these people can be cannon fodder?

Schools are closed in Belgium. Exceptions do exist for 1) kids that are at a boarding school without external home to go to, 2) 'special needs' children who cannot be properly be taken care of outside specially outfitted schools. So basically, if sending the kid out of the school doesn't kill them or make them homeless, they go.

In the Netherlands schools are closed, so groups of parents are now rotating them around so you have mini-private-schools. Because heck if I am going to be confronted with my own kids during a crisis.