Okay, I had this in a post elsewhere but a mod killed it last night arguing I already had a carrier thread going.
I did some math. This is all theoretical, but we can make some educated guesses. Rather than saying: THIS IS WHAT IT IS, this is more an exploration of what the ranges might be.
I posted this over on reddit, but I thought it was worth posting over here too:
Lets play a quick game of how much is the fleet carrier upkeep going to be? I'm excited to find out how many of my credits I burn away every week! Aren't you?
Its been reported that the upkeep will be weekly. But Fdevs comments that “We know players want to go on vacation” suggests a fairly rapid timescale for the “decay” and decommissioning of fleet carriers, if they're even having to CONSIDER player "vacations." I mean...this is sounding more joblike all the time. I wonder how many sick days the pilot's federation gives?
How much before a fleet carrier decays? Well, we have zero idea, but lets put on our game designer hats and take a wild stab in the dark. You want it to be enough that it’s a significant enough debt that it doesn't seem trivial (My fleet carrier got lost over only ONE MILLION CREDITS?! WHAT THE HELL?!) and thus feels appropriate to players, but at the same time, you don’t want it to be the entire value at which point players have more incentive to let the carrier decay and buy a new one than pay off the debts on the existing one.
If it were ship rebuy rates, it would be 250,000,000 or two hundred and fifty million credits at 5% of 5 billion. That’s not a bad number so we’ll use that in one of our projections. Actual numbers haven't been announced yet, so it’s almost certainly something FDEV is still figuring out. Note: FDEV keeps saying it's going to be a HUGE debt to get your ship decommissioned (even said so in this very thread) but a huge debt is pretty subjective.
Remember how shocking the ship transfer prices were? Lets say one billion. That sounds like a huge debt when you're paying 5 bill for a carrier.
Now we need to know how fast fleet carriers decay to figure out your weekly payments.
It seems like FDEV have this in mind as a relatively fast mechanic since they have your rental payments on a WEEKLY timescale rather than a monthly one.
Well, lets project some scales. Three months, six months, and a year. Lets say months have an average of 30.5 days, and a year has 52 weeks even.
At three months, a 250,000.000 debt to decommission is going to cost you 19.2 Million credits per week of upkeep. At two weeks, (lets say you don't play a week, that’s 39.4 million credits of debt you have to wipe away.
At six months, weekly, you’re going to be paying 9.6 million in upkeep.
If the 250,000,000 cost is PER YEAR which is the most hopeful but unlikely timescale, you’re going to pay around 4.8 million per week.
Doesn’t sound so bad right? But remember three things: Firstly, this is THE MOST OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO. It feels hard to imagine a carrier would vanish for less than 250 million credits of debt at a FIVE BILLION buy in cost.
The second is that this is not optional. This is not a debt you can avoid by not blowing your credit card. This is the continual rental cost you will need to pay to lease your fleet carrier every year until you decide not to carry it. A continual garnishment to your personal income in Elite.
Thirdly, I don’t think this time scale is realistic, given that fdev are putting payments on a WEEKLY schedule. Also remember, something else about these time scales and how much you have to pay: 250,000,000 to destruction debt over three months is a billion credits you lose per year. (So you'll see some similar looking numbers on our second round of projections.)
Okay, lets go big. 1,000,000,000 credits to decommission. One billion space bucks. At a three month to decommission time scale, the scale I find most likely, your grand total is 76.9 million credits PER WEEK. Every week, that’s 76 million credits. Miss a week? Well now you gotta make 153.8 million credits.
At six months 38.4 million a week. Again, a lot, but as it comes down it almost starts to feel reasonable, until you remember this is basically like buying a new Anaconda from Li Yon Rue every three weeks.
At a full year before decommission at a billion credit debt black hole is going to be 20 million a week. Again that feels...do-able perhaps? Until you don’t play for a month and come back to discover you’ve got an 80 million credit tab waiting for you, and another one to pay next month as well.
I guess for me the question is really becoming, how many hours of my real life am I willing to spend doing grindy, repetitive work just to keep RENTING a carrier that will be taken from me if I don't make my payments on time?