General / Off-Topic The safest place

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Assuming Q1 and Q4 are likely the worst time frames for infectious disease, we're looking at about 16k in US and 200k worldwide?

That would only make sense for seasonal endemic pathogens and is a baseless assumption when it comes to this outbreak.

For the year - 80k - 200k Globally ?

That would be a low-ball guess for the US alone. Even the White House estimates 100-240k dead Americans.

Global deaths are going to be seven figures, maybe eight if we're especially foolish.
 
That would only make sense for seasonal endemic pathogens and is a baseless assumption when it comes to this outbreak.



That would be a low-ball guess for the US alone. Even the White House estimates 100-240k dead Americans.

Global deaths are going to be seven figures, maybe eight if we're especially foolish.


It would need to approach 9 figures to reach 1% of the global population.
 
Well - at 2 Million dead globally out of 8 Billion for the year the death rate would be .025%

And we may only be talking about 500k or less? Which would be .00625% ???

Roughly 80 Million would have to die to approach 1% ???

Ummmm...India, Africa, SouthAmerica ? And noone here has any kind of reliable numbers from Russia I presume ?
 
In 2017, there were 56 million deaths globally; nearly half of these (49%) were people who were 70 years or older; 27% were between 50 and 69 years old; 14% were between 15 and 49; only 1% were older than 5 and younger than 14; and almost 10% were children under the age of 5.

High Blood pressure killed 6.39 Million in 2017
 
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As an aside, and even when this blows over, one thing I'd like to see is anyone caught licking a toilet seat automatically gets cut off from any health insurance & services forevermore.
 
Its mental to see some people here argue that something projected to cause more deaths in in one year in the US alone than both the Korean and Vietnam wars total combined is somehow not a big deal. When someone went from "oh it is nothing at all!" to "more than both those wars in our country alone? Meh!" that person simply made up his mind months ago that he'd consider it no big deal no matter what.
 
Well - at 2 Million dead globally out of 8 Billion for the year the death rate would be .025%

And we may only be talking about 500k or less? Which would be .00625% ???

Roughly 80 Million would have to die to approach 1% ???
Very just.

However, the collateral damage will be considerable.

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I still think we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg in terms of infected people with SARS-CoV-2

The only country that massively tested people is Germany
i'd say their infected/serious/deaths cases are closest to reality, but even they may still have a lot of infected yet not tested/confirmed cases.

Not sure it will be really worse in the really poor countries like India for example.
They dont have many elders that are surviving with multiple health conditions as let's say Italy, and based on their living conditions they may have much stronger immune systems


I'd really love to be able to take a peek to statistics made at the end of this year.

Until then, stay safe and protect yourself and everyone else
 
Its mental to see some people here argue that something projected to cause more deaths in in one year in the US alone than both the Korean and Vietnam wars total combined is somehow not a big deal. When someone went from "oh it is nothing at all!" to "more than both those wars in our country alone? Meh!" that person simply made up his mind months ago that he'd consider it no big deal no matter what.

As the numbers disucssion fruitlessly goes around and around, with the same people making the same wrong and/or fallacious arguments over and over again, I really wonder what the motivation is .
 
As the numbers disucssion fruitlessly goes around and around, with the same people making the same wrong and/or fallacious arguments over and over again, I really wonder what the motivation is .


Context and perspective shouldn't really be that hard to grasp.
 
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Yeah, saw an alert about that. Good point.

It is NOT safe to be 2 metres from a sick person, who would want to do that?
The guidelines are minimal basic security that just improve risks, and reduce infection rates.

Thing is we need an infectious dose of virus particles in theory- which could be millions of them, IDK, - to likely cause a clinical infection. One virion particle is not a threat by itself in general is what they taught us. That is astronomically different to a single mucus droplet, which is like an ocean swimming with fish.

IRL, where are you going to really find just one virion? It's going to be droplets.

But this caterpillar study says different. One virion seems to cause the whole illness. This isn't the same as saying if one gets in our nose we have had it. Odds still get worse the bigger the number of the dose. At some tipping point, a single one starts to replicate and BOOM We-We-We are Borg.

It is analogous to getting hit by shotgun blasts. One pellet could kill, but the whole cluster is a much worse deal. The whole cluster is one barely visible mucus droplet.

So wearing masks works mainly not by filtering your intake but by blocking the output from asymptomatic carriers. Still, I am wearing that if I go in public.
 
I still think we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg in terms of infected people with SARS-CoV-2

The only country that massively tested people is Germany
i'd say their infected/serious/deaths cases are closest to reality, but even they may still have a lot of infected yet not tested/confirmed cases.

Not sure it will be really worse in the really poor countries like India for example.
They dont have many elders that are surviving with multiple health conditions as let's say Italy, and based on their living conditions they may have much stronger immune systems


I'd really love to be able to take a peek to statistics made at the end of this year.

Until then, stay safe and protect yourself and everyone else
Merkel estimates that 60-80% of the German population is infected, same thing in France, and in the United States they predict approximately 150 million people.

I guess these proportions are the same in many countries.

The submerged part of the iceberg. :)

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Merkel estimates that 60-80% of the German population ̶i̶s̶ will get infected, same thing in France, and in the United States they predict approximately 150 million people.

I guess these proportions are the same in many countries.

The submerged part of the iceberg. :)

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Fixed that for you .
 

Deleted member 38366

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Merkel estimates that 60-80% of the German population is infected, same thing in France, and in the United States they predict approximately 150 million people.

I guess these proportions are the same in many countries.

The submerged part of the iceberg. :)

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That's a possible endgame scenario though, and not a good one. Not (luckily) the current factual situation, otherwise we'd have dead bodies littered everywhere around the county and a crazy death count.
 
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