General / Off-Topic The safest place

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While all reported stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, it is interesting to note that when comparing Europe with the USA, mortality rate seems nearly identical (~160/million). There is an odd difference in the trends though: with europe showing a sharp increase, following by a gradual reduction in daily fatalities/new cases, with the US pretty much hitting peak in early April and simply not changing since either way. A sign measures work and they are preventing a worse peak? A sign measures don't work and the fall-off isn't happening? Maybe simply a sign that they are hitting test capacity and fail to remedy that? Who knows.

It is pretty hard to work out what any of the figures mean. I think there are to many variables to make sense of it all right now.

The obvious ones are population density, measures taken and compliance to the measures taken. But (and more related to compliance) culture might have an affect. If you are in a touchy feely culture (I’m thinking Italy but absolutely no offence is intended) you are probably more likely to spread a virus than in a more standoffish culture (I’m thinking Germany). The UK is quite standoffish but we have a really high population density and were pretty slow to take measures.

I’m sure statisticians and virologists will be muddling over this for years.
 
It is pretty hard to work out what any of the figures mean. I think there are to many variables to make sense of it all right now.

The obvious ones are population density, measures taken and compliance to the measures taken. But (and more related to compliance) culture might have an affect. If you are in a touchy feely culture (I’m thinking Italy but absolutely no offence is intended) you are probably more likely to spread a virus than in a more standoffish culture (I’m thinking Germany). The UK is quite standoffish but we have a really high population density and were pretty slow to take measures.

I’m sure statisticians and virologists will be muddling over this for years.

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"Mast bad. Burn mast!" isn't that elaborate though. If anything it is a reduction of reality to merely finding some local object to blame.

I don’t mean that. I’m struggling to work out a way to say what I mean that doesn’t cross over to the P word (somehow)....

Ultimately though, people don’t understand electromagnetic radiation but do know that some of it is dangerous. Add to that the virus started in China, Huawei is a Chinese company involved in a new technology that has only just started being rolled out and you have a perfect storm.

If you are the sort of person that would think drinking disinfectant or shining a UV light up your nose will solve the current problems then you are going to be vulnerable to bonkers ideas like 5g being the cause.
 
The whole 5g thing baffles me. It could be worse, people could be dunking witches but it’s the same sort of thing I reckon.

When people don’t understand a simple cause they latch on to an elaborate one.

I find it so extremely frustrating how simple it is to deal with the Beast ( wash hands, dont touch face with hands, keep distance, stay at home/dont mix/mingle with people, especially do NOT spit each other in the mouth, nose and eyes ), and to what length people are willing to go to simply not accept this, cos "mah Freedom" or "Beer !" or "SPORTS !" . And haircuts .

Makes me wanna yell on occasion .
 
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I find it so exetremely frustrating how simple it is to deal with the Beast ( wash hands, dont touch face with hands, keep distance, stay at home/dont mix/mingle with people, especially do NOT spit each other in the mouth, nose and eyes ), and to what length people are willing to go to simply not accept this, cos "mah Freedom" or "Beer !" or "SPORTS !" . And haircuts .

Makes me wanna yell on occasion .
It's actually quite simple. When an infected patient meet a susceptible person, there is a certain probability that a new infection happens (0-100%). Therefore the number of daily new cases is a product of the probability times the number of contacts. Of you lower one to half of it, you can increase the other to twice of that, and still have the same number of new cases. When people don't follow the advices, like cough in your elbow, they (together) raise the total probability of infection (called the infection rate). Therefore, to keep the pandemic under control you will have to reduce the number of contact, through more lockdown, each time someone does something stupid. You might think your hair is starting to look horrible, but you look way better being alive than dead, and this is not the flu.
 
It's actually quite simple. When an infected patient meet a susceptible person, there is a certain probability that a new infection happens (0-100%). Therefore the number of daily new cases is a product of the probability times the number of contacts. Of you lower one to half of it, you can increase the other to twice of that, and still have the same number of new cases. When people don't follow the advices, like cough in your elbow, they (together) raise the total probability of infection (called the infection rate). Therefore, to keep the pandemic under control you will have to reduce the number of contact, through more lockdown, each time someone does something stupid. You might think your hair is starting to look horrible, but you look way better being alive than dead, and this is not the flu.

Can we get this printed on a gazillion of leaflets, and have em dropped off all over the World ?
 
If you are in a touchy feely culture (I’m thinking Italy but absolutely no offence is intended)

I don't believe you, and just so you know, I'm heavily gesticulating in anger at your offence right now.

The "touchy" culture might surely be a factor (though mind you, we are touchy just in a family/friends context, with strangers for the most part we are Finns who talk louder). The enormous differences in contagion rates between north and south regions in our same country though, made me have a passing idea a while ago, that apparently was studied seriously by some research groups, that is that the virus could be linked somehow to different level of pollution. Apparently, they are investigating the possibility that the virus could stick to and create "clumps" with certain types of fine particulate, typical of very polluted/urban areas, allowing it to diffuse more easily and on longer distances even airborne. Considering the horrible air quality of the Padan Plain, where the vast majority of cases has and is still happening, it could as well be another factor to be considered outside of the more obvious higher density/km and wider diffusion of high frequency Illuminati networks. Still a long shot from being something verified or verifiable though (last time I checked, at least).
 
.Previously published in the Onion, a satirical magazine, one month ago:

 
This is stunning. Truly. Whatever is happening in this country can and must be duplicated - in every way financially and logistically possible - worldwide.

Just look at those daily new and active cases. Wow.
🇩🇪

Sadly, it is being put to the test now . A lot of restrictions being lifted, timing varies between the States . Physical distancing still in effect, but a bit more allowing . Mostly useless Masks mandatory in some FedStates. A lot of us fear we are going to loose it . We will know a little bit more next weekend . A lot of people would have preferred the restrictions/containment in terms of public and business sphere would have lasted somewhat longer . Looking at r0, we have a bout 0.2 - 0.3 of wiggle room . Enough people thinking "Its all over...", and we have gambled away what we achieved so far .

How it was done is not a secret . Testing, testing, testing . Contacttracing . Voluntary Isolation when Symptoms but unsure, vol .Quarantine when sick but not badly . Containment from 16th of March on, to various levels, but basically strict physical distancing/stay-at-home everywhere . Also, all the time since January - even before Country - or FedState wide measurements were put in place, a lot of very specific localized things being done in response to clusters .

Idk much about other Countries atmo, but I know Cuomo has put NYS on a good path .
 
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You hear stories about 1 person infecting an entire dinner party, not to mention the plague cruise ship incidents (10% of all cases in Australia are linked to 1 ship). I dunno why anyone wants to take chances with this virus.

Yep, me neither. The opnionmakers were/are drumming "r0=1 !" into peoples minds, as if it that would mean Pandemic = OFF . And people being people, they start yelling "FOR FREEDOM AND THE CONSTIUTION !" in Germany, too, forgetting that stuff like what you wrote will happen, and r0 is likely to go up, again . Especially when people start crowding together like nothing again, which - I kid you not - people did in several, big cities in Germany past weekend, protesting against...actually, I dont know, since most restrictions have been lifted so far . Seemed to me as if many were protesting against the Virus in general .
 
I'm a firm believer in the idea that security means nothing without freedom, and that freedom which only exists as long as it's not actually exercised is no freedom at all, but I really do wish people would use some restraint when it's in the best interests of themselves and especially others.
 
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