Cambridge uni has moved all courses online until summer 2021...
Can’t say I’m surprised, I’ve been telling my uni colleagues who thought things would be back to normal by September that they were being um, optimistic...
Institution first to announce virtual teaching for next academic year
www.google.co.uk
That is ominous.
It's possible to gain local control and regional eradication if the travel remains restricted. But as long as there is a reservoir of virus elsewhere in the world, the threat persists. How long do we have to make adjustments? Obviously till V-Day. Vaccine day.
There is a significant problem with the kind of short-cutting vaccine research we are getting. The Oxford group and the Moderna company have prospective vaccines that both looked promising and then seemed to develop problems. Safety and efficacy are impossible to assess properly in 18 months. Look:
Simple questions when the vaccine comes out-
1)
How many doses will it take?
- We cannot know if the levels of antibody drop after 6 months, if we haven't measured it after 6 months. So let's say that vaccine is ready to try by May next year- nobody has had it injected yet outside of small trials.
Therefore we do not know if we'll need to offer a booster dose, or what percentage of the vaccinated will lose immunity, till at least we use it on humans for a year, and measure the effect. Does the second booster dose last 6 more months? 3? 9? How do we know if we don't actually test? We can't.
Therefore we cannot say what the dose schedule is supposed to be. That might take some trials and maybe 2-3 years to figure out.
2)
How many people will actually get protection?
- The assumption is that if you get the shot, you are all good, right?
Wrong.
A vaccine
has an efficacy rating - a percentage of people that get immunity after the dose. How will we know what that is, till we use it, and see who gets sick later? Is it 99%? 25%? It kind of matters A LOT. A 25% protected population is highly at risk still. The WHO lower limit, let me not discourage you, is a paltry 50%. If the vaccines score lower, they will not be approved. And they shouldn't be. If the immunity starts of at 50% but peters out in 4 months, that vaccine is no good is it?
3)
Who should be medically exempted?
- A key question for safety, is the list of known situations where it's unsafe to use. We are not going to know this with authority, for at least 5 years of use, and data collection. All kinds of things pop up over time.
The first generation Coronavirus Vaccine might be something to avoid right off the bat, for say a 3-6 month break in period. Let an initial cohort try it in a high risk area, where the use is justifiable.
4)
Can it cause the disease?
- Sounds stupid, but attenuated viruses have been known to sometimes give disease effects. Sometimes they are not so "attenuated" -especially if manufacturing is rushed.
jamanetwork.com
