Increased volatility in the BGS -runaway leaders many retreats

Dubbuennel. ...

Screenshot 2020-06-13 at 10.18.50.png


It was going so well! Then the patch came.
 
People have been complaining that retreat was "too difficult" for months, despite the 3.6 changes, so I wonder if this is another attempt to "fix" that.

Hmmm... It's a sort of fixing headcache by axe.
BTW, why the retreat is a problem 4 somebody? There are no wars, if no stations owned. Just sit on back startightly, and no problem at all.
 
People have been complaining that retreat was "too difficult" for months, despite the 3.6 changes, so I wonder if this is another attempt to "fix" that.
We had a faction in retreat in one of our systems and it went up 26% in two days. It is even more difficult now.
 
The change was supposed to be you kept more of your inf from previous tick to keep trends.I interpreted this as less volatiliy but it has had the opposite effect, with the entire galaxy in a state of chaos.
Happyness has been affected too (although i admit i never really understood how it works), my faction used to be elated in all but 2 systems, we're now discontented almost everywhere irrespective of inf movement direction.
 
We had a faction in retreat in one of our systems and it went up 26% in two days. It is even more difficult now.

I think it might be fairer to say it's less predictable. A faction retreated from my home system on the tick, the retreat had been in progress before the update though.
 
BTW, why the retreat is a problem 4 somebody? There are no wars, if no stations owned. Just sit on back startightly, and no problem at all.

If you can't block the retreat, you can't expand either. The moment you enter a new system you will be shoved down into retreat again. Plus, if you do retreat from a system it drops the bottom of your expansion priority list so getting back in that particular system is a lot harder.
 
If you can't block the retreat, you can't expand either.
Sorry, I really dont't understand. As I remember, I had retreat and expansion at the same time. Of course, I may be wrong and make a review of our influence history in cbb, but I remember exactly, that retreat and expansion happened at the same time (in different systems)
 
Not without delving into the api for eddb. Bear in mind that not all systems have been visited as the data is crowdsourced so the number may be higher.

However, it is the relative rise from 4500 to 7300 in 3 days that is the scary prospect.

As mentioned elsewhere though. Most of those who expand will then subsequently bounce straight out again and then get blocked from expanding there again at this rate which should lead to some hilarity
 
And the expansions caused by this haven't really started yet - pending is 5 days, so anyone actually active right now was over 75% on Monday (or earlier) before the changes

Doing a quick check on the state data in the EDDB systems file:
6 June13 June
Faction-system pairs Pending Expansion34768034
Faction-system pairs Active Expansion42334845
Faction-system pairs Pending Retreat32780
Faction-system pairs Active Retreat2111932
Systems with highest faction >= 75%5181925

EDIT: added Retreats as well, where the difference is much bigger.

Most of those who expand will then subsequently bounce straight out again and then get blocked from expanding there again at this rate which should lead to some hilarity
A few days to get the influence, ~6 days to expand, then there's a ten-day minimum time in a system before Retreats can happen, then another six or so for the Retreat itself. That gives Frontier about three weeks to fix it before that starts to be a serious issue.
 
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The change was supposed to be you kept more of your inf from previous tick to keep trends.I interpreted this as less volatiliy but it has had the opposite effect, with the entire galaxy in a state of chaos.
Happyness has been affected too (although i admit i never really understood how it works), my faction used to be elated in all but 2 systems, we're now discontented almost everywhere irrespective of inf movement direction.
You're gaining inf today because you gained inf yesterday.
Because you gained inf today, you'll gain inf tomorrow....

Suuuuuuuuuuuuurely they've accounted for this. They wouldn't leave a positive feedback loop in there, right?
 
Looks like a positive-feedback loop to me. Runaway increase in the controlling faction throughout the Canopus region, even though that faction already controls all systems and stations and cannot expand further (nothing else in range). Everyone else struggling, including the other Fed faction (so not Fed rank-grinders).
 
Hi everyone!

We wanted to address a few concerns here about the BGS, explain why some things have happened and what is going to happen, buckle up!

So as you all know, the BGS tick happens once a day, representing 24h of activity. Due to the server downtime, yesterday we had a tick that represented more like 36-40h of activity, which therefore created bigger changes than usual (and noticeably!). While some adaptations were made to create SOME impact, it will not be as much as you've recently seen.

This morning represented the 1st full 24h cycle for the BGS since the Fleet Carrier update, which means that we are able to inspect and evaluate if it is working as intended. This also means that for any concerns about the BGS, please disregard current behaviour, with today forward being more stable.

Now that the cycle is behaving as expected after having a proper 24h running, the team have already been monitoring and evaluating if any changes are needed, and will be making some as a result. The key part of this will be changes to a few factions influence as they changed more than intended.

Hopefully this helps give some insight into the last few days, as well as an idea of a few more things coming to expect!

We also want to take this opportunity to give some advice on how to report concerns about the BGS in the future.

If you see something you think needs investigating, you can help the development team by including the following details in your feedback:
  • The faction
  • The star system
  • The date
  • What you think is wrong

Thanks again for sharing your thoughts!

o7 Commanders

The faction - too many to list
The Star System - ditto
The Date - everything after the 9th of June 2020
What you think is wrong - impossible gains all over the Galaxy never seen before.

Dear Frontier, you really did some bloopers over the years with the BGS. I fondly remember the 2.3 patch on 11th April 2017 where you restarted the Servers so often that a certain victory in a conflict to win back our HQ (59.7% vs. 21.5% on the 10th) was turned into a complete and utter defeat of 1.0% vs. 66.6%. One day later (12th), a complete rollback was done and the BGS restored to the values of the 10th.

Looks like this won't be possible this time, maybe because it would remove all those new PMF you implemented. Which would be good though because you completely botched to place their descriptions into the correct Systems and slammed them into others. But I digress.

At this moment in time I feel unemployed. There is no drive to play the BGS anymore because it plays itself. I don't know about others but if I'm reduced to the role of a Spectator without being able to do anything it gets boring in a hurry.

If this was a planned accident to open up as many Systems as possible and make it more lively again I fear it will severely backfire. People made great efforts to keep their areas closed and maintain good relations with their neighbours. At least in those places were people respect each others efforts and know what it took to get where they are.

With almost every System going nuts in means of % increase, minus those in the high single or double digit billions of Population, there be many open again to expand into. But nobody will stay anywhere because those in control will easily smother every and all attempts to stay inside. Permanent Expansions and Retreats is what we're going to have and not the sliver of a chance to stay and gain a foothold.

So if this keeps up, is not looked into and changed you will lose pretty much everyone that ever wanted to play the game for BGS reasons. For why would anyone need to? Those who are in control of Systems will rise and stay up top without the need to lift a finger, effortlessly reigning supreme. Everyone else will be pushed down and out. You have created the perfect version of Social Distancing in Elite - all can visit but not stay for very long before they're sent back to their own place.

Please, for your sake and ours, fix this. Soon.
 
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