General / Off-Topic The safest place

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Given that current rate, with all things being equal, at a rate of 100 cases a day, the beds can actually be diminished or be utilised within three weeks to a month."
Dr. M. Richards, in charge of Institutions warning locals that we are 3 weeks away from full occupancy. Using linear projections during exponential spread.

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<------------- See, that's not linear. We have less than 10 days. Contact Tracing is overloaded now, so as they fail, the spread will accelerate.

But that's just within the Covid assigned parallel system. Spillover into the public service would then occur, but they're not set up to stop respiratory crossinfection. It's also running at 90-99% as it is now, with normal work. After that, we have a small bed reserve in the Private sector, about a fifth the size of the public regular sector, which would be overrun in 2-3 days.
I'll have access to the quarters above the ER, with it's built in O2 lines. Till overspill fills it.

At that point, we're India. Complete saturation. No oxygen. Well, no medical oxygen, we do have industrial gases that could be repurposed.
Estimated time to the apocalypse is wild guess 3-4 weeks, if we cannot stop the spike. We did before, though. 🤞

Just for fun, here's the most popular comment cut from the local press:
Well, if the Government continues its policy of begging and pleading with citizens to stop spreading the virus instead of detaining, flogging and isolating those who flout the public health regulations, we can look forward to the collapse of the public health care system in three weeks.

Just so you folks understand what a gentle moderate I am. ( If only they knew the real timeline, these calls might already be replaced by citizen actions.)
The laws regarding flogging are on the books, they are in use, and date back to piracy days. We only recently took out the cat'o nine tails because prisoners used to die from the process. But nobody will be going through a trial for legal punishment; the application is likely to be completely extrajudicial.

I did tell you, things are a bit different here.
 
Interesting evidence of widespread covid19 since september 2019 as shown on dr campbell's channel.


I don't really think it's too surprising really, I recall other evidence such as Barcelona sewage and elsewhere for autumn 2019 infections.
The implications are interesting though. I'm wondering if the turning point was with a mutation around Christmas or if we'd simply been living with it since September anyway and nobody knew / admitted it.
 
"Salk researchers and collaborators show how the protein damages cells, confirming COVID-19 as a primarily vascular disease"

 
<------------- See, that's not linear. We have less than 10 days. Contact Tracing is overloaded now, so as they fail, the spread will accelerate.
.

Today, in consultation with the Epidemiology unit, Dr Richards has recalculated it. The service discharged some recovered cases, a factor I had no data for, and the outcome is exactly 7 to 10 days to overflow.

(Honestly, if countries used this forum, they'd be better informed and have better projections than they do now. There's a lot of good info in these threads from cmdrs all over the world.)

Our epidemiology report shows deaths moving backwards into people over 40, for the first time. This is clear evidence that we are working with variant P1/2 now. This poses a direct threat to collapse our health service, and zero time to wait to avert it.

There are increased restrictions announced today. I hope people can cook, because there's nowhere to go buy prepared food.
 
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Today, in consultation with the Epidemiology unit, Dr Richards has recalculated it. The service discharged some recovered cases, a factor I had no data for, and the outcome is exactly 7 to 10 days to overflow.

(Honestly, if countries used this forum, they'd be better informed and have better projections than they do now. There's a lot of good info in these threads from cmdrs all over the world.)

Our epidemiology report shows deaths moving back into people over 40, for the first time. This is clear evidence that we are working with variant P1/2 now. This poses a direct threat to collapse our health service, and zero time to wait to avert it.

There are increased restrictions announced today. I hope people can cook, because there's nowhere to go buy prepared food.
In the U.K. Delivero and Just-eat, both take away delivery services, have made a fortune, over the course of the pandemic.

Are there any enterprising youngsters there, with access to a moped?
 
“Within 10 days the parallel healthcare system will become overwhelmed if we continue at this rate…Hospitals are filling faster than they can empty.”

“What is worrisome is the increasing upward trend which demonstrates that these hospital beds are being filled and could potentially can result in a collapse within, say, about seven to 10 days.”

Press reports from Dr. Richards today. You'll notice the slight change in her language. :unsure:
Traffic was heavy again as people seek to stock up on cookables. Expect a ghost town atmosphere from tomorrow. Restrictions go on at midnight, the PM mentioned a State of Emergency if needed to expand police powers.

Edit:
Took an ER callout at 7:20pm. Ghost town in force already, it's like being in an episode of the TV Avengers series when they had no budget for extras.

Hit the bakery, still open. Got 12 litres of homemade roselle extract made with cloves, lime peel, and cinnamon. Maybe it will stop ageing, maybe it will just taste good, can't lose!
Also, they had bread and coconut tarts. Everything half off, selling out. Life is not so bad.
 
Brazil faces shortage of Chinese CoronaVac vaccine as delivery is delayed. In seven major Brazilian cities, including Porto Alegre, injections of the second dose have been suspended for lack of doses.

Well I wonder if in this case all the work done with the first dose will now be useless.

Nope. The more people vaccinated the better even if it's only one dose.
 
We seem to be rolling steadily towards a working vaccine passport.

From 17 May, the UK government says, international leisure travel may be possible once more – 19 weeks after it was made illegal during the current lockdown. Simultaneously, foreign governments have been setting out their plans for admitting visitors according to vaccination status, and several cruise lines have also said they will need proof of vaccination before allowing passengers to travel with them.

The report noted: “The global harmonisation of measures will simplify travel between countries, strengthening public confidence in international travel, and enable travel to be more quickly re-established between countries.”
 
Certainly but the immunity is only partial and diminishes with time if the second dose does not come.

Better than nothing. Getting shots into as many arms as quickly as is possible is the only effective way to combat covid.

Worry about second jabs once the first are done widely.

Have you decided about yours yet ?.
 
As recently as April 18, 2021, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was holding crowded political rallies, and his government allowed the massive Hindu pilgrimage festival of Kumbh Mela to proceed a year early in response to the auspicious forecasts of astrologers.

:LOL: :LOL::LOL:
Get it wrong much, Nostradamus? Toss yourselves on a pyre, just pick any one.

Why do people swallow this nonsense in 2021? Why are humans so incredibly dumb? Think ANY of these "astrologers" predicted this mass event?

Fly Now, Pay Later is an old slogan from BWIA. It's the kind of saying that ends up being slapped on everything that goes wrong through neglect. It sums up the whole Pandemic in 4 words.
 
I keep saying it's education failure and people keep saying I'm mean (or have an agenda or something). It's a huge failing that people can leave high school in 1st world countries still believing in magic sky fairies and prognosticators so what chance do people in developing countries have? None, zip, nada, bupkis.
Anti-vax sentiments are a huge education failure. There seems to be almost no knowledge of just how many lives have been saved by vaccination and what life was like pre-vaccination in anti-vax circles. It was easily as much a step forward as antiseptics or antibiotics.

Pandering to the lunatic fringe is a luxury we afforded ourselves when things were safer and was convenient when it was used to present things like global warming as being up for debate rather than an obvious and imminent threat. The crystal danglers and homeopathists of the world have been told for years their opinions carry merit instead of being laughed out of academia or off news interviews and such. Once useful idiots now holding us back from herd immunity via vaccination.

People have lost their grip on reality.

Interesting news article on how the news is bad for you and we really shouldn't pay attention to it :

Purely anecdotally I got annoyed at the obvious lies the UK government were pushing about masks being ineffective back at the start of the pandemic and haven't watched one of their briefings since, I also took a huge break from the news that lasted months and was happier for it. I'm thinking about downscaling my news consumption to a single delivery paper, just struggling to find one I haven't already decided is just backup toilet paper/kindling.
 
🇹🇹
Deaths have spiked locally to 6 in one day, the highest number so far. One of them was one of my centre's nurses, who used to quietly run the dialysis unit. Infection took place offsite. Nobody else here affected.

The death rate rise is inevitable. We can feel it getting closer; I wish we had a 3 week hiatus to get my immunity up but nope, we're in the thick already. 5 more P1 cases detected in the community. No line of transmission, so the thing is uncontained.

We have one internal medicine case in the unit. Most of the regular work is postponed/rescheduled because of risks. I might be able to get some time off if things stay quiet.
 
🇹🇹
Deaths have spiked locally to 6 in one day, the highest number so far. One of them was one of my centre's nurses, who used to quietly run the dialysis unit. Infection took place offsite. Nobody else here affected.

The death rate rise is inevitable. We can feel it getting closer; I wish we had a 3 week hiatus to get my immunity up but nope, we're in the thick already. 5 more P1 cases detected in the community. No line of transmission, so the thing is uncontained.

We have one internal medicine case in the unit. Most of the regular work is postponed/rescheduled because of risks. I might be able to get some time off if things stay quiet.
Good luck Robin.

Be paranoid about it carry full PPE all the time (spare apron and eye protection in thigh pockets) and trust your own judgement rather than paperwork or assurances, some people will try to palm the infected off on you as clear if they are frightened/lazy enough. You'll be able to feel the heat of the fever from a few feet away with people running a proper infection.
 
Weather often affects infections. The US's climate averages have just been updated, so the "cold and flu" season may shift a bit:


Notice how hotter and drier the southern and western US are becoming. Precipitation in the eastern half is increasing.
 
🇹🇹
Deaths have spiked locally to 6 in one day, the highest number so far. One of them was one of my centre's nurses, who used to quietly run the dialysis unit. Infection took place offsite. Nobody else here affected.

The death rate rise is inevitable. We can feel it getting closer; I wish we had a 3 week hiatus to get my immunity up but nope, we're in the thick already. 5 more P1 cases detected in the community. No line of transmission, so the thing is uncontained.

We have one internal medicine case in the unit. Most of the regular work is postponed/rescheduled because of risks. I might be able to get some time off if things stay quiet.
Two more days to my second shot. I'm sorry about your colleague.
 
Anti-vax sentiments are a huge education failure. There seems to be almost no knowledge of just how many lives have been saved by vaccination and what life was like pre-vaccination in anti-vax circles. It was easily as much a step forward as antiseptics or antibiotics.

Pandering to the lunatic fringe is a luxury we afforded ourselves when things were safer and was convenient when it was used to present things like global warming as being up for debate rather than an obvious and imminent threat. The crystal danglers and homeopathists of the world have been told for years their opinions carry merit instead of being laughed out of academia or off news interviews and such. Once useful idiots now holding us back from herd immunity via vaccination.

People have lost their grip on reality.

Interesting news article on how the news is bad for you and we really shouldn't pay attention to it :

Purely anecdotally I got annoyed at the obvious lies the UK government were pushing about masks being ineffective back at the start of the pandemic and haven't watched one of their briefings since, I also took a huge break from the news that lasted months and was happier for it. I'm thinking about downscaling my news consumption to a single delivery paper, just struggling to find one I haven't already decided is just backup toilet paper/kindling.
When I was in the big house, reading the news and watching it on the box (back in the 80s). I thought the whole world, was going to hell. So I stopped reading and watching, for years and as you say; I felt much, much better about things.

One small thing though. Just because you don't believe something, dose not make it untrue.
 
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