Game Discussions Star Citizen Discussion Thread v12
- Thread starter Yaffle
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As I thought you'll not correct your formula because the result don't please you. So I will correct it for you :
(1 ED player / 15 hours played (instead of 10 to please you)) x 168 hours a week = 11.2 ED players found a week.
11.2 x 1.1 (lets say 10% of ED player don't chat and I miss them, but it's a lot more) = 12.3 player a week
56 x 60 x 12.3 = 41 328
41 328 / 500,000 = 8% on active players
The "refugee" thing cropped up with the console fiasko at ED and the trolls here eagerly sucked that bit up to inflate it beyond reason and rode that horse to death and keep beating its carcass up to this day.
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
Nice.
If we start withdrawing some of the other "generous" assumptions I also took in my initial estimate then we would also need to:
- Asume a lower number than your 1 per week, since you are likely to exaggerate that in the same why you underplayed the 10 hours. Let´s say, 0.5 instead of a round 1.
- Remove the assumption that all players you found are different people. Let´s say you met several times at least 20% of the ones you encountered.
The calculation now goes: 0.5 x 11.2 x 1.1 x 56 x 60 x 0.8 = 16,558
So what we are talking here is an estimated range between 3K and 15K as a "refugee wave". Heck, let´s even make that 20K. And all that over a frikking full year. Let that sink in. Judging by base game review numbers in Steam, FDEV probably sells that in base game units in less than a month.
We are still very much in the "a few thousands" order of magnitude level man. At worst. Over 500K active and 12 million units sold.
There is no "wave" here. Especially not over a full year. Just wishful thinking and SC fan confirmation bias.
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The 60 servers is accurate ballpark of active servers?Nice.
If we start withdrawing some of the other "generous" assumptions I also took in my initial estimate then we would also need to:
- Asume a lower number than your 1 per week, since you are likely to exaggerate that in the same why you underplayed the 10 hours. Let´s say, 0.5 instead of a round 1.
- Remove the assumption that all players you found are different people. Let´s say you met several times at least 20% of the ones you encountered.
The calculation now goes: 0.5 x 11.2 x 1.1 x 56 x 60 x 0.8 = 16,558
So what we are talking here is an estimated range between 3K and 15K as a "refugee wave". And all that over a frikking full year. Let that sink in. Judging by base game review numbers in Steam, FDEV probably sells that in base game units in less than a month.
We are still very much in the "a few thousands" order of magnitude level man. At worst. Over 500K active and 12 million units sold.
There is no "wave" here. Especially not over a full year. Just wishful thinking and SC fan confirmation bias.
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
Close enough for this kind of very rough, back of the envelop, ballpark estimate discussion. Assuming they are reasonably filled in, it would be consistent with the 3000 concurrency figure. Otherwise we have to assume less players per server and we need to also lower the number of refugees encountered per week since we assumed LA servers were also reasonably full.
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I had a lot of hope for both E
and Scam, sorry, Star Citizen when they were both introduced as the future of space 'sims'. That hope has been pretty much squandered and soon crushed as it doesn't look like either will reach the great visions that they drew up, at least not in my lifetime.
What I am hoping for now is that an indie developer sweeps in and slaps both these games on their wrists. It doesn't have to have the graphical fidelity of modern games (I like Valheim) but I'd like to see it implement a real scale universe based on real physics with seamless travel (warp speed for real life hours, days, weeks! take that space truckers!) and no boundaries on where you can go, unless it is physically impossible to do so. I'd like to see a player driven, real economy, with mining and trade being the backbone of this universe. Space ships would be your home, a space station in motion towards your next goal. There would be less focus on combat and more on exploration and finding resources to exploit. Base building would be must if you for instance want to set up grander mining operations. A living universe, with procedural life (plants and up) but based on science. There should be a miniscule possibility of stumbling upon anything between proto-civilizations and long gone ones, cities in ruins. All this in camp, 90s era graphics with janky animations.
I'd take that over Star Citizen and E, if never reaches its full potential.
But it's just a dream. I know.
and Scam, sorry, Star Citizen when they were both introduced as the future of space 'sims'. That hope has been pretty much squandered and soon crushed as it doesn't look like either will reach the great visions that they drew up, at least not in my lifetime. What I am hoping for now is that an indie developer sweeps in and slaps both these games on their wrists. It doesn't have to have the graphical fidelity of modern games (I like Valheim) but I'd like to see it implement a real scale universe based on real physics with seamless travel (warp speed for real life hours, days, weeks! take that space truckers!) and no boundaries on where you can go, unless it is physically impossible to do so. I'd like to see a player driven, real economy, with mining and trade being the backbone of this universe. Space ships would be your home, a space station in motion towards your next goal. There would be less focus on combat and more on exploration and finding resources to exploit. Base building would be must if you for instance want to set up grander mining operations. A living universe, with procedural life (plants and up) but based on science. There should be a miniscule possibility of stumbling upon anything between proto-civilizations and long gone ones, cities in ruins. All this in camp, 90s era graphics with janky animations.
I'd take that over Star Citizen and E
, if never reaches its full potential.But it's just a dream. I know.
Why are you even asking them, like who the hell does that and why?
Do you pay attention if they have come from EVE or NMS or is it only the Elite ones you care about?
I swear you citizens are so desperate for there to be some mass exodus so you can prove SC is the "one true space game" when the reality is people switch games day in, day out.
If it's not refugees it's twitch numbers or google trends or funding stats or some other crap to try and claim superiority, and all because you still haven't got a released game and Elite released all the way back in 2014.
It's fraking embarrassing.
What's truly embarrassing is that they keep comparing themselves to a game with a tithe of Star Citizen's budget... and the best they can come up with is "look at the pretty graphics." Which are great for a last generation game, but hardly up to today's AAA standards. And SC gets there through brute force, sacrificing framerate for "visual fidelity." Meanwhile, games with less than a percent of their budget continually outperform them where it really matters: gameplay.
/r/StarCitizen_Refunds - 13,122 subscribers
/r/EliteDangerousRefunds - 25 subscribers
/r/Starfield_Refunds - 7 subscribers
/r/EVE_Refunds - doesn't exist
/r/NoMansSky_Refunds - doesn't exist
/r/SpaceEngineers_Refunds - doesn't exist
The respective Star Citizen subreddit has orders of magnitude more subscribers than the other space games combined, so it's clearly superior.
Checkmate, FUDster
Leak:
One of the new ship wrecks, it does look really good, Turbulent doing a fine job again.
NPC's also moving around outside.
One of the new ship wrecks, it does look really good, Turbulent doing a fine job again.
NPC's also moving around outside.
LOL. Love the NPC just floating in the air and all the jankiness. Tier 0 trolly pushing.
Leak:
One of the new ship wrecks, it does look really good, Turbulent doing a fine job again.
NPC's also moving around outside.
Was just watching that.
- He dispatches the mission target immediately, as the NPC is standing unawares.
- He then nearly gets taken out by an NPC who is glitched safely inside a wall.
- He did then find some around in the wilds. (And up on higher ground, which is a nice touch. The ship base looks decent. The grappling to get up high was pretty shonk though.)
- The guys on the ground seemed to vary between taking cover (fine) and just running around gormlessly (less so).
(Also not sure why the sunny climes hadn't melted the ice on his armour, but hey ho
)All told it seemed... suitably Evo pre-pre-alpha.
Because you are still using 500K active players in your formula. It's an old number of march 2021. Why are you not using the 2022 number of active players you can find in the liberum report of 2022 ?
Leak:
One of the new ship wrecks, it does look really good, Turbulent doing a fine job again.
NPC's also moving around outside.
So CIG... sorry, Turbulent, created an asset. Put it onto a planet. And have some NPCs walking around?
A truly outstanding achievement for this small independent company!!!
Sorry for the sarcasm, but can't really muster up anything more positive.
Story of the QA who lost his job has been picked up by another source
www.videogameschronicle.com
Star Citizen tester claims they lost their job after ‘requirement to end remote working’ | VGC
Cloud Imperium Austin has allegedly ditched its vaccine policy and asked workers to…
www.videogameschronicle.com
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
Because it was at the peak of the concurrency and activity at the time of EDO launch, the time we have arbitrary selected to also start counting refugees too.
Either way active players is a very vague notion. It is going to vary based on where you put the limit, one month? why not two?, or 3? How many hours of game play is enough to be considered active, 2? 3? Is just a quick log in and out during the month enough? etc. We can use a number of arbitrary scenarios but it will still be all vague.
And a % of something vague is equally vague. Much better to stay on absolute numbers, i.e. the 3K to 15K rough range discussed above. And realize that over a full year that is still ridiculous and is no "wave". Especially when FDEV may be selling more base game units than that in a month.
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Ha yes, because when it was "0.67% over active players" it was perfectly fine for you. Now that you have to take into account some numbers and facts (no more 500k since EDO) and that this % is boosted, suddenly % mean nothing.
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
Not really, I just simply followed your line of reasoning even if not particularly useful. The fact remains a % of something that is vague, and can change depending on your definition, is not very meaningful. Hence the importance of the absolute figures discussion.Ha yes, because when it was "0.67% over active players" it was perfectly fine for you. Now that you have to take into account some numbers and facts (no more 500k since EDO) and that this % is boosted, suddenly % mean nothing.
A range of 3K to 15K refugees over a full year is still pretty meaningless, weather you want to display that in a % figure (of a vague/arbitrary number) or not. Especially when FDEV may be selling more base game units than that in a month. And even more meaningless when you look at the evolution of the alleged new Citizen account creation counter over a full year.
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