I wish it was number three. But it was clearly communicated that it seems to be number 2.
Most likely too much extra code to hassle into the BGS daily tick calculation to even care for something with little influence on the BGS. People CAN plan around it by just winning the damn war.
Which would be nice if the influence values weren't bugged should this happen and accurately reflect the changes to allow the winner-turned-loser to know how hard they have to work to flip the tables back around.
I would have hit the CZ's a LOT harder had I known I was going to face a complete and total reversal from being up 10 points to down 10 points which is what the influence states are now reporting.