It seems massively overcomplicated if it's intended behaviour - everything else has been extremely simple in retrospect once the correct analysis has been done to sift out the pattern, and would require utterly bizarre data storage and processing if it was a bug.
I was thinking very much that it feels unintended; we have some systems in some locations sometimes failing to follow a few simple rules which satisfy many dozens of others systems each week. That feels conflict-y and accidental!
The point of simplicity may be also somewhat true if extended also to that latter case; I think that the sector codes probably are not the direct problem, but if they represent actual positions then the real problem could be block-y and coordinate-y and the sector codes are just a frequent side-effect of it. Sifting for the pattern is exactly what I had in mind, where this could be considered an intermediate stage.
Also related to the notion of simplicity is trying for the moment not to think too much about skipping a target versus losing a target, and instead focus on noticing anything in common when such problems occurred. The matching sector-codes seem like a quite clear shadow cast by the underlying cause, and thus far they falter only when the volume-code is also involved, but surely both of those are shadows of a possible spatial explanation based on volumes, blocks, coordinates and such! Everything about how they work clearly is very spatial, in terms of both position and size, so it seems natural to involve both.
As ever, I do apologise if it turns out to be nothing—though for the moment, I think we have the start of an idea which has room to correlate once checked, and it would be nice to suppose it may be related. Consider this part of the sifting process!
No further targets possible This is unusual. An inner uninhabited being skipped for an outer inhabited wasn't too much of a surprise - HIP 11111 instead of HIP 21386.
But missing out Aowicha as well leaves only 4 Alerts when 5 were possible. I wondered if there's some mis-entry of mine of which controls are offline, which meant that while it looked like Daruwach had to attack two weeks ago (and therefore be available this week), something else could have instead, leaving Daruwach to attack last week:
Daruwach is only in range to attack:
- HIP 3006
- Cephei Sector ZE-A c8
- Gliese 9035
- Aowicha
The first three were all on cooldown from Alerts on 6-13 July, so can't have been targeted 13-20 July. Daruwach should be active and able to attack Aowicha, but didn't.
So this looks like two separate things - a skip forward from HIP 21386 to attack HIP 11111, and the attack on Aowicha being omitted for no obvious reason.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Canaharvas
23.548
7
7
Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; etc
Yes
0.9
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2
30.067
1
1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;
No
0.7
HIP 39468
30.337
5
5
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; etc
No
-0.1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6
30.355
3
3
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1
30.453
1
1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;
No
0.3
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1
30.635
4
4
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116 (10.010 LY); etc
No
-0.4
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16
30.965
2
2
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5
31.260
1
1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6;
No
0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3
31.399
2
2
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii;
No
0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5
31.444
1
1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4
31.529
2
2
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11
31.563
2
2
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23
31.584
2
2
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0
31.614
1
1
HIP 35633;
No
0.3
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-22
31.756
2
2
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.
Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week. Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population. Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 61 control systems and 932 targets.
Total connected: 58 Disconnected Controls
83 additional targets not listed, 97 total Usual sort of week at Indra, with its extremely dense network of controls targeting 5 inhabited systems most weeks.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 30 control systems and 965 targets.
Total connected: 26 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2
15.98888774
Tougeir
16.22455941
Liu Huang
17.75687587
Akbakara
18.17006789
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Cephei Sector WO-A b4
15.395
3
3
Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16; HIP 10778;
No
-0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1
17.750
3
3
Cephei Sector AF-A c9; HIP 8525; HIP 7338;
No
0.8
HIP 3006
18.930
1
1
Daruwach;
No
0.2
Cephei Sector ZE-A c8
19.896
1
1
HIP 10778;
No
-0.4
BD+77 84
20.166
2
2
HIP 8525; HIP 7338;
Yes
0.9
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1
20.261
2
2
Kanus; HIP 7338;
No
0.6
Gliese 9035
20.494
2
0.4
HIP 10778; Daruwach;
Yes
-0.5
HIP 21386
20.509
3
3
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2; Liu Huang; Akbakara;
No
0.7
Cephei Sector CV-Y b1
22.039
1
1
Tougeir;
No
0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2
22.149
1
1
HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);
No
0.5
Bumbo
22.416
1
0.2
HIP 7338;
Yes
0.9
Jeng
23.038
1
0.2
Tougeir;
Yes
0.5
Cephei Sector AV-Y b0
23.575
1
1
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;
No
-0.5
Aowicha
23.769
1
0.2
Daruwach;
Yes
-0.3
HIP 2422
24.009
1
0.2
HIP 7338;
Yes
0.5
No further targets possible The previous big wave of recaptures at Oya are now off cooldown, with lots of alternate-attack options, mostly uninhabited systems near the top, and the unexpected skipping of Aowicha last week. Beyond expecting at least four of the systems on the list above to be hit, I'm not at all confident about the order or number attacked.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 163 control systems and 829 targets.
Total connected: 162 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2
24.23140798
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Khwal
21.530
4
4
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10; etc
Yes
1
Hez Ur
22.001
1
1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;
Yes
0.7
Desurinbin
25.105
9
9
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc
Yes
0.2
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2
25.947
3
3
Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; 19 Puppis;
Yes
0.4
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1
28.020
1
1
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0;
No
0.4
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12
28.061
4
4
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; etc
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14
28.140
3
3
HIP 37906; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10
28.888
3
3
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5
29.605
1
1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;
No
0.8
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3
30.014
1
0.2
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;
Yes
0.9
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1
30.635
4
4
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116 (10.010 LY); etc
No
-0.4
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16
30.965
2
2
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5
31.260
1
1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6;
No
0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3
31.399
3
3
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii;
No
0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5
31.444
1
1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4
31.529
2
2
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152;
No
-0.5
39 additional targets not listed, 55 total Cocijo back to attacking inner inhabited targets again this week.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 94 control systems and 905 targets.
Total connected: 81 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
HIP 20024
19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1
21.81126877
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
23.95464872
HIP 18857
24.61621433
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2
25.94627111
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2
33.52490038
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17
35.48607782
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0
36.36741491
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3
37.93461686
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4
21.039
4
4
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3; etc
No
0.5
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4
22.217
2
2
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;
No
0.6
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3
24.094
1
1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;
No
0.5
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3
26.122
2
2
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8;
No
0.5
No further targets possible Thor again running out of available perimeter this week - interestingly, all its available targets are quite close-in.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 143 control systems and 852 targets.
Total connected: 142 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Hosan
27.87701436
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Balak
23.024
7
7
Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785; etc
74 additional targets not listed, 88 total If this was Oya I'd not be confident about it going for Ngolite instead of one of the Pegasi Sectors higher up the list. But for Raijin, that would be new.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 66 control systems and 929 targets.
Total connected: 65 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3
24.11759116
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10
17.369
4
4
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-0; HIP 30502; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; etc
No
0.9
Bi Dhorora
18.466
2
2
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Omumba;
Yes
0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16
20.418
2
2
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;
No
-0.7
Vogulu
20.728
2
2
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;
Yes
0.7
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4
21.892
2
2
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6
22.792
3
3
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;
No
-0.4
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1
23.453
2
2
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1 (9.970 LY); Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;
No
0.4
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6
23.515
1
1
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0
24.192
1
1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;
No
-0.7
HIP 29217
25.118
1
1
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-7
25.952
1
1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5
26.055
1
1
Vasupari (9.991 LY);
No
0.8
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1
26.107
1
1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-3 (9.990 LY);
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6
28.935
1
1
HR 2138;
No
-0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7
30.393
1
1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7;
No
-0.9
No further targets possible Hadad's perimeter continues to open up as it comes off cooldown, though that's not the same as being able to progress, of course.
Code:
-- Taranis
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87:1
-- Leigong
HIP 7277:1
HIP 9764:1
-- Indra
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4:1
64 Tauri:1
Hyadum I:1
HIP 20916:1
HIP 19934:1
-- Oya
Niu Yun:1
Ardhri:1
Sambaho:1
HIP 13179:1
-- Cocijo
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8:1
-- Thor
HIP 19198:1
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
HIP 115162:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6:1
-- Hadad
Montioch:1
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1:1
HR 2204:1
HIP 31223:1
HIP 32764:1
Is there a handy list anywhere which has the origins of all the (nearby) custom sectors?
I'd like to test a theory involving positions, a misused hashtable and a possible design/implementation decision which could have been made when placing the maelstroms.
Usual culprits will be good for now - Col 285, Pegasi, Arietis, Hyades, Cephei, probably Trianguli, maybe Lyncis and Ceti.
Unsure about the proc-gen ones like Synuefe unless any of their origins could be mistaken for the custom ones on a bubble map if the names were removed.
Sphere position/radius could be a useful visual for the mental replay of what they might have done but I'm more interested in each custom sector's AA-A coordinates.
I'm after that nearest corner outside the sphere, wherever AA-A a0 would be, or the corner of the AA-A h 1280 LY cube.
Exploration subforum might be the best place to ask about that - I've seen a bunch of exploration tools which have that data, though can't remember the specifics.
May do some digging/asking there!
I think I can sort of figure it out - I just threw in Cephei Sector AA-A b0-0 and got its origin within 20 LY (outside the Cephei sphere names of course).
Something here feels like it's colliding, and what I just found out seems weirdly close to finding it.
The first strange note is that a lot of these war systems (problems or not) have really low I-J-K cube coordinates, obviously relative to "their" custom sector.
Uniformly the "a" should go up to 128, "b" up to 64 and so on - but these systems rarely get anywhere near as high as they could.
That may be expected with spheres which are small relative to 1280 LY and the cube origin is on the bounding box of the sphere, but moving on...
The second note is that a lot of these problem systems seem to have really REALLY low cube coordinates!
Like if you take Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1, that is effectively "DQ-Y b0-1", DQY0 in alphanumeric land, 16643 sequentially, and only (3, 2, 1) as coords.
It's a weird guess but it seems like each maelstrom may have one of these sectors close to it assigned for positioning purposes.
All it would take is a hashtable to be reused but not reset in between, and it would be collision central if indexed by the "local" cube sequence!
Looks like that has the spheres with position and radius, thanks!
To get the full picture with origin I think I can combine that with searching the map for "AA-A a0", "AA-A b0"... until it catches something.
I'm sorry to interrupt.
It's hard for me to get through so many pages, but maybe someone can answer me one question.
Thargoid simulation, is the grip in the bubble exactly the same as the Power Play ? I mean the size of the zone can change, but the zone will never expand beyond a certain size and never disappear, and it doesn't depend on the players.
Thargoid simulation, is the grip in the bubble exactly the same as the Power Play ? I mean the size of the zone can change, but the zone will never expand beyond a certain size and never disappear, and it doesn't depend on the players.
In Theory
There's no practical maximum known on the size of the Thargoid invasion if left completely unopposed - some systems would be unreachable as it can only hop 10 LY at a time, but given sufficient millions of years they could capture almost the entire galaxy; given a couple of centuries they'd likely wipe out the vast majority of the bubble. The main constraint on them on this side is that they can at most capture 40 systems a week, and the bubble is huge and the galaxy is bigger.
There's currently no way to remove the Maelstroms themselves (maybe in later updates), but there's again no theoretical reason a Maelstrom couldn't have all its Control systems recaptured if sufficient effort was put in to doing so. Whether the Maelstrom itself would be able to try to place a new Alert system at that point, or whether it'd be completely unable to move, we don't yet have any way to find out.
If Frontier were to stop changing things now, every case between "reduced to Maelstroms only" and "destroy the bubble" would be entirely up to how much player opposition they get in the next two centuries, and where.
In Practice
There's a quasi-exponential increase in difficulty to defend or recapture a system, the closer you get to the Maelstrom itself. In practical terms, this means that reducing a Maelstrom below a 15LY radius of controlled systems is exceptionally difficult (though not impossible; it has been done), while a Maelstrom expanding above 30 LY leaves its outer systems extremely easy to recapture (there are some outside that radius, but only because they're very low priority).
While the theoretical options of "no opposition at all" and "so much opposition they're wiped out" could happen, the practical range of player activity combined with the current balance of difficulties will probably lead to a rough stalemate where the Maelstroms are eventually held to a 15-20 LY radius of controlled systems - attempts to expand further will be too weak to sustain for the Thargoids, while attempts to recapture closer in will be too difficult to sustain for the players - though with exceptions here and there.
Though, Update 16 is scheduled for half-way through the next cycle, so that positioning could change, and more radical options like being able to repel/destroy Maelstroms while the Thargoids send more are also possible. Frontier have significantly changed the balance twice before - when combined with player activity the first changed a moderately fast Thargoid advance to an extremely slow one, and the second changed it to a moderately fast human recapturing - and could well do so in either direction again.
[1] Though so does Powerplay; there's no theoretical reason that a single Power couldn't reduce the other 10 to their HQs only in such a way that they couldn't expand, and take over the entire bubble for themselves, it's just not possible with any reasonably plausible distribution of player activity.
Results: all 100% correct except (as expected) Oya.
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Cephei Sector WO-A b4
15.395
3
3
Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16; HIP 10778;
No
-0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1
17.750
3
3
Cephei Sector AF-A c9; HIP 8525; HIP 7338;
No
0.8
HIP 3006
18.930
1
1
Daruwach;
No
0.2
Cephei Sector ZE-A c8
19.896
1
1
HIP 10778;
No
-0.4
BD+77 84
20.166
2
2
HIP 8525; HIP 7338;
Yes
0.9
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1
20.261
2
2
Kanus; HIP 7338;
No
0.6
Gliese 9035
20.494
2
0.4
HIP 10778; Daruwach;
Yes
-0.5
HIP 3006 being skipped so Daruwach can attack the populated Gliese 9035 instead isn't all that surprising; that done, HIP 10778 may as well go for ZE-A c8.
Less clear why BD+77 84 should then have been skipped over apparently in favour of the uninhabited FB-X b1-1 system, though [1].
[1] It's not "4 week recoveries get a clear week after them" - HIP 20948 in Indra was attacked as expected this week.
Less clear why BD+77 84 should then have been skipped over apparently in favour of the uninhabited FB-X b1-1 system, though [1].
[1] It's not "4 week recoveries get a clear week after them" - HIP 20948 in Indra was attacked as expected this week.
It looks to me as if something anachronistic can occur at the very start of the week, and it messes things up while the Thargoid Council is trying to decide where to attack next. We had:
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6 showing at first as a fresh Alert despite only just having been repelled as an Alert last week. The system War Information then changed to present an empty system despite the Galaxy map still colouring it yellow, and I presume it may revert to grey.
More to the point, BD+77 84 was showing still as a Recovery system while V was checking and adding the attacks and Alerts, despite having Control evicted on week 30 and its respite interval being weeks 31–34. It reached 100% in week 33 then continued to show 100% in week 34, although that indeed is likely not a cause; especially if it now shows as a clear Human system, surely the cause may have to do with showing Recovery temporarily.
Something very similar could have occurred also with HIP 3006; it was cleared as an Alert in week 32, making this week 35 the soonest it can be attacked. Despite having no direct indication of its respite interval, which you have established so well as being weeks 33–34 in this case, we need only suppose that the notional respite attribute were still present at HIP 3006 in the same temporary manner as with the Recovery state for BD+77 84.
Under that hypothesis, targeted systems which are only just exhausting their respite allowance are candidates for that problem to occur, and problems occurring with targeted systems which have had at least one clear week after respite ended could be considered either counter-examples or having another cause.
Additional: Checking those other targets, unfortunately the matter of respite ending is a not useful indication here; all of those were either evicted Control on week 30 or repelled Alert on week 32, where the next entry HIP 21386 is the first unlike those having had Control cleared on week 29. Still, ultimately a few systems had yet to update properly, where the retained Recovery state at BD+77 84 could indicate that its respite also had yet to update.
Additional additional: Please ignore my silly attempts at trying to find a cause; I just checked the problems in last week 34 and noticed that Aowicha was skipped despite having Alert repelled on week 30, therefore respite was weeks 31–32, therefore there should have been no problem.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.
Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week. Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population. Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 59 control systems and 936 targets.
Total connected: 42 Disconnected Controls
No further targets possible Taranis gets out of cooldown a bit from the previous attack, though almost all of its attack front this week is disconnected. Haushu as a possible but unlikely swap-in for Alert 5.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 106 control systems and 889 targets.
Total connected: 105 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 9764
24.37487981
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1
26.245
1
1
HIP 8078;
No
0.8
HIP 5685
35.195
3
3
HIP 6442; Hyades Sector LY-I b9-0; HIP 6251;
No
0.4
No further targets possible Leigong continues to be heavily constrained this week.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 151 control systems and 844 targets.
Total connected: 151
Calculating Oya
Read 30 control systems and 964 targets.
Total connected: 26 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2
15.98888774
Tougeir
16.22455941
Liu Huang
17.75687587
Akbakara
18.17006789
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2
18.346
2
2
Ardhri; Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;
No
-0.2
HIP 4041
18.528
1
1
Sambaho;
No
0.3
Lahua
19.363
1
1
Tougeir;
Yes
0.9
BD+77 84
20.166
2
2
HIP 8525; HIP 7338;
Yes
0.9
HIP 21386
20.509
3
3
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2; Liu Huang; Akbakara;
No
0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c21
20.669
1
1
HIP 13179;
No
0.8
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2
22.149
1
1
HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);
No
0.5
Bumbo
22.416
1
0.2
HIP 7338;
Yes
0.9
Muncheim
23.557
1
0.2
HIP 7338;
Yes
0.7
Cephei Sector AV-Y b0
23.575
1
1
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;
No
-0.5
HIP 2422
24.009
1
0.2
HIP 7338;
Yes
0.5
Poqomathi
24.136
1
0.2
HIP 7338 (10.020 LY);
Yes
0.6
No further targets possible Skipping HIP 21386 to use the very well-connected HIP 7338 to attack one of its inhabited options would certainly be in character for Oya's atypical behaviour. That HIP 7338 is the only Control able to attack any of the more distant inhabited systems this week might limit the scope for strangeness a little.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 139 control systems and 850 targets.
Total connected: 136 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2
24.23140798
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2
25.80003104
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1
30.83090855
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Khwal
21.530
1
1
Mapon;
Yes
1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7
23.878
1
1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;
No
0.7
Paitra
24.880
9
9
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; etc
Yes
0.7
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10
28.888
3
3
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11
28.899
5
5
Mahlina; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7; etc
Yes
0.7
Laumas
29.269
3
3
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6; HIP 37520 (9.974 LY);
Yes
0.5
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76
29.600
2
2
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;
No
0.2
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3
30.014
1
0.2
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;
Yes
0.9
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1
30.635
4
4
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; etc
No
-0.4
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16
30.965
3
3
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8
30.992
1
1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;
No
0.4
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5
31.260
1
1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6;
No
0.6
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5
31.444
2
2
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4
31.529
3
3
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11
31.563
2
2
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23
31.584
1
1
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2;
No
-0.9
27 additional targets not listed, 43 total Having been blocked from Khwal last week, Cocijo turns the much tougher Mapon to try again.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 92 control systems and 905 targets.
Total connected: 79 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
HIP 20024
19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1
21.81126877
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
23.95464872
HIP 18857
24.61621433
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2
25.94627111
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2
33.52490038
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17
35.48607782
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0
36.36741491
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3
37.93461686
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
21.776
6
6
Chanyaya; HIP 19894; Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14; etc
No
0.4
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5
24.842
4
4
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14; HIP 20024; Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1; etc
No
0.3
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3
26.058
2
2
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2;
No
0.2
HIP 20489
28.684
1
1
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3;
No
0.7
No further targets possible Thor still struggling to target, with much of its effort around the disconnected Chanyaya branch, where it has some uncharacteristically high connectivity numbers.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 142 control systems and 853 targets.
Total connected: 141 Disconnected Controls
As with previous weeks, 100% accuracy on everything that wasn't Oya. Here's what we got at Oya
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2
18.346
2
2
Ardhri; Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;
No
-0.2
HIP 4041
18.528
1
1
Sambaho;
No
0.3
Lahua
19.363
1
1
Tougeir;
Yes
0.9
BD+77 84
20.166
2
2
HIP 8525; HIP 7338;
Yes
0.9
HIP 21386
20.509
3
3
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2; Liu Huang; Akbakara;
No
0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c21
20.669
1
1
HIP 13179;
No
0.8
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2
22.149
1
1
HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);
No
0.5
Bumbo
22.416
1
0.2
HIP 7338;
Yes
0.9
Muncheim
23.557
1
0.2
HIP 7338;
Yes
0.7
Cephei Sector AV-Y b0
23.575
1
1
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;
No
-0.5
HIP 2422
24.009
1
0.2
HIP 7338;
Yes
0.5
Poqomathi
24.136
1
0.2
HIP 7338 (10.020 LY);
Yes
0.6
Four uninhabited Alerts, the inhabited Lahua and BD+77 84 skipped over, HIP 21386 also missed, and none of HIP 7338's various target options got used either so only four Alerts total despite plenty more targets and - in a first for Alert reduction - no Controls retaken at Oya at all in the previous cycle.
So, no idea what's going on here or why Oya is so different to the rest; one obvious distinction is that Oya has 29 controls and all the others are over 50, Oya only started acting particularly oddly when reduced significantly below 50, it's possible that a Maelstrom under really serious attack / just starting out has entirely different targeting priorities.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.
Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week. Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population. Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 54 control systems and 940 targets.
Total connected: 42 Disconnected Controls
5 additional targets not listed, 20 total While Taranis is getting its perimeter back, the recaptures have taken a lot of its former inhabited targets out, so defense may be a bit easier.
-------------------------------------------
Recalculated after data input error on original run Calculating Leigong
After recaptures, read 94 control systems (95 originally) and 901 targets.
Total connected: 94
HIP 7277; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-17;
Yes
0.5
Jementi
25.007
2
2
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19; Patollu;
Yes
0.9
Ceti Sector XJ-A c18
25.359
1
1
Patollu;
No
0.9
No further targets possible Just four targets to start the week for Leigong, this time surprisingly densely connected inner ones, and a couple of its remaining outer inhabited targets.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 146 control systems and 848 targets.
Total connected: 146
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
HIP 19157
21.650
1
1
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;
Yes
-0.6
HIP 20890
21.889
12
12
64 Tauri (10.013 LY); HIP 20577; HR 1354; etc
Yes
0.9
HIP 20527
22.540
18
18
Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc
Yes
0.9
HIP 20899
23.086
18
18
HIP 20916; HIP 20577; HR 1354; etc
Yes
1
HIP 20491
23.341
6
6
HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc
82 additional targets not listed, 96 total The usual disparity between inhabited and uninhabited shells at Indra; now the top 11 targets are all inhabited.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 30 control systems and 966 targets.
Total connected: 26 Disconnected Controls
No further targets possible This is a list of possibilities, but predicting what they'll actually go for is very tricky. Further notes below.
Last week's actions at Oya were quite convenient, because they ruled out a lot of "we've lost of track of which controls are active" explanations. The only uncertainty about which control attacked last week is that it's possible that missed tracking would have allowed AF-A c9 to attack last week. I've manually down-rated it slightly for this week, which gives some of the X.8 confidences; however, if it did attack last week, then HIP 13179 didn't, and they both target exactly the same two systems - AF-A c22 and HIP 11111, so it shouldn't make a difference to the end result this time.
Last week, Tougier, HIP 8525 and HIP 7338 didn't attack, and neither did the set of three pointed at HIP 21386. If that continues then we'd expect only HIP 3006, AF-A c22, and HIP 11111 to be attacked this time; it seems more likely that at least one of those six will do something rather than voluntarily reduce Oya to just three Alerts, but it's a possibility, as none of these controls have been used - despite opportunities - for either of the last two weeks.
Daruwach being used on Aowicha rather than HIP 3006 is also a strong possibility regardless of anything else. Oya hasn't had to make that specific choice before, but did go for the inhabited Gliese 9035 over HIP 3006 in similar circumstances two weeks ago.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 132 control systems and 858 targets.
Total connected: 129 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2
24.23140798
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2
25.80003104
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1
30.83090855
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Canaharvas
23.548
3
3
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7;
Yes
0.9
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76
29.600
2
2
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;
No
0.2
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2
30.067
1
1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;
No
0.7
HIP 39468
30.337
3
3
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7;
No
-0.1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6
30.355
2
2
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1
30.453
1
1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;
No
0.3
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1
30.635
3
3
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152;
No
-0.4
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16
30.965
1
1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4
31.529
2
2
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11
31.563
1
1
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23
31.584
1
1
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0
31.614
1
1
HIP 35633;
No
0.3
Col 285 Sector WD-G b12-0
31.821
3
3
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-2;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-20
31.825
2
2
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2 (10.002 LY); HIP 39409;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-2
31.970
2
2
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-1; Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3;
No
-0.8
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-5
32.179
2
2
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4; Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3;
No
-0.5
16 additional targets not listed, 32 total The pushback on Cocijo continues, but it retains a substantial perimeter for now.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 87 control systems and 911 targets.
Total connected: 76 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
HIP 20024
19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1
21.81126877
HIP 18857
24.61621433
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2
33.52490038
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17
35.48607782
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0
36.36741491
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3
37.93461686
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2
21.239
1
1
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-0;
No
-0.5
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0
22.796
2
2
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; HIP 18857;
No
-0.2
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1
22.991
1
1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;
No
0.7
Unktety
25.357
1
1
HIP 19198;
Yes
1
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3
26.122
1
1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5;
No
0.5
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1
33.636
2
2
HIP 18776; Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0;
No
0.4
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12
33.827
2
2
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17;
No
-0.3
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16
34.883
4
4
HIP 19501; Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2; Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0; etc
No
0.4
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3
36.005
1
1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;
No
-0.5
No further targets possible Thor also gets a bit larger perimeter to start the week.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 136 control systems and 858 targets.
Total connected: 135 Disconnected Controls
74 additional targets not listed, 89 total Raijin is starting to settle into a 3-week cycle, though the recapture of Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2 means it's not perfect; Bormuninus falls off the target list for now.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 66 control systems and 929 targets.
Total connected: 65 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3
24.11759116
Target
Distance
Controls
Confidence
Attackers
Inhabited?
Advance
HIP 29596
18.225
2
2
Montioch; HR 2204;
Yes
0.8
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2
18.310
2
2
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;
No
-0.7
Fotlandjera
19.687
1
1
Omumba;
Yes
0.2
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31
20.046
6
6
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; HIP 31648; etc
No
-0
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8
20.607
1
1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;
No
-0.9
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4
20.752
2
2
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;
No
0.2
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3
20.783
7
7
HIP 31648; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etc
No
0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29
21.254
4
4
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; etc
No
-0.4
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5
21.482
2
2
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3
22.024
1
1
HR 2204 (9.988 LY);
No
0.9
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6
22.792
3
3
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;
No
-0.4
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2
22.853
1
1
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;
No
0.3
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1
22.869
2
2
HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;
No
-0.7
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6
23.515
1
1
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;
No
-0.6
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1
23.674
1
1
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;
No
0.9
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5
24.456
1
1
HIP 32764;
No
-0.4
7 additional targets not listed, 23 total Nothing out of the ordinary here either.
Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2:1
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85:1
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4:1
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0:1
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4:1
-- Leigong
-- Indra
71 Tauri:1
HIP 20679:1
HIP 20480:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4:1
86 Rho Tauri:1
-- Oya
Ardhri:1
Sambaho:1
HIP 13179:1
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3:1
-- Oya, if last week's exhaust list was wrong
Cephei Sector AF-A c9:0.2
-- Cocijo
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4:1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1:1
Mahlina:1
-- Thor
Chanyaya:1
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Sholintet:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78:1
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7:1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4:1
Apologies for any hassle - was that using the right Leigong data?
Some attackers like HIP 6251 were cleared last week so I'm guessing it was as simple as having last week's input there.
Noticed it with the INTRA outlook being totally different there whereas the others look similar, yours having the extra targeting options.
I wonder - will the new Thargoid Barnacle Matrices affect their systems' attack capability? We've already seen it means that the system can't be reclaimed.
Apologies for any hassle - was that using the right Leigong data?
Some attackers like HIP 6251 were cleared last week so I'm guessing it was as simple as having last week's input there.
Noticed it with the INTRA outlook being totally different there whereas the others look similar, yours having the extra targeting options.
