Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

[Ian Doncaster]

I wonder - will the new Thargoid Barnacle Matrices affect their systems' attack capability? We've already seen it means that the system can't be reclaimed.

Figuring out where they are seems important, then - if there is a pattern, stopping the Thargoids taking any more systems which meet it would be critical.

It definitely prevents reclamation? It's the most likely explanation for the observations I've seen but something like "zeroes sampling effectiveness" or "something weird about one system in particular" could still cover that.

 

[Starsong]

It definitely prevents reclamation? It's the most likely explanation for the observations I've seen but something like "zeroes sampling effectiveness" or "something weird about one system in particular" could still cover that.

The same group who did the sampling checked their logs and found the Scout kills they made during their sampling also gave zero progress. I can't rule out that system in particular being weird, though.

 

[Starsong]

Figuring out where they are seems important, then - if therethe document is a pattern, stopping the Thargoids taking any more systems which meet it would be critical.

The reports say they're in planets with noble gas atmospheres, interestingly.
EDIT: Nevermind - the document that's been compiled says there's all sorts of atmospheres (but no airless worlds).

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I've edited the prediction to correct Leigong - as expected, I'd just set the wrong time window when preparing the input data.

 

[TobiasFuzz]

Sorry if this was answered elsewhere but i did not find any discussion about this (after a quick search)...

I was jumping from Lambog to Cordenses (both systems are not invaded/controlled/alerted by Thargoids). In Cordenses i was interdicted by a hunter class Thargoid. It was to fast to escape and shut down my FSD. I barely escaped by high waking with 90% hull after some evasive actions and popping multiple heatsinks. My ship is a Krait Mk2 highly engineered for speed and non-thargoid combat so i dont even try to fight back.

Is this normal now that hunter class Goids can interdict you everywhere outside the known alert/invasion/controlled systems?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Is this normal now that hunter class Goids can interdict you everywhere outside the known alert/invasion/controlled systems?

It seems to be the case for the Scythe, at least, with reports out to 60 LY from Maelstrom centres - were you carrying escape pods or other human cargo?

 

[TobiasFuzz]

It seems to be the case for the Scythe, at least, with reports out to 60 LY from Maelstrom centres - were you carrying escape pods or other human cargo?

Yes. Had a passenger mission (VIP) from Lambog to Cordenses.

 

[TobiasFuzz]

It seems to be the case for the Scythe, at least, with reports out to 60 LY from Maelstrom centres - were you carrying escape pods or other human cargo?

Thanks for the quick answer by the way!

 

[Untilting]

Sorry if this was answered elsewhere but i did not find any discussion about this (after a quick search)...

I was jumping from Lambog to Cordenses (both systems are not invaded/controlled/alerted by Thargoids). In Cordenses i was interdicted by a hunter class Thargoid. It was to fast to escape and shut down my FSD. I barely escaped by high waking with 90% hull after some evasive actions and popping multiple heatsinks. My ship is a Krait Mk2 highly engineered for speed and non-thargoid combat so i dont even try to fight back.

Is this normal now that hunter class Goids can interdict you everywhere outside the known alert/invasion/controlled systems?

Just need to add an ECM and a point defence, on my passenger evacuation runs from Ebisu yesterday I was always interdicted by Scythes after the first jump while lining up for the second. None of the jumps were to control/alert systems. My slow T7 got away after losing shield and a tiny bit of hull damage, my speedy Orca got away without a scratch - not sure the shields even went below 100%. Both ships have 3A Prismatics and a couple of boosters, but the ECM was key to spend as little time as possible in the vicinity of the Scythe.

 

[Shurimal]

Yes. Had a passenger mission (VIP) from Lambog to Cordenses.

Scythes are reported to interfere with you whenever you carry any escape pods originating from anywhere if you go too close to the maelstrom systems. It makes sense that they'd interfere with you if you carried passengers from and to non-war systems, too. I think it's pretty neat mechanics and makes passenger missions way more interesting

 

[TobiasFuzz]

Scythes are reported to interfere with you whenever you carry any escape pods originating from anywhere if you go too close to the maelstrom systems. It makes sense that they'd interfere with you if you carried passengers from and to non-war systems, too. I think it's pretty neat mechanics and makes passenger missions way more interesting

Indeed. It is long ago that i was surprized by the game.

 

[Leadfoot]

Scythes are reported to interfere with you whenever you carry any escape pods originating from anywhere if you go too close to the maelstrom systems. It makes sense that they'd interfere with you if you carried passengers from and to non-war systems, too. I think it's pretty neat mechanics and makes passenger missions way more interesting

Well, we certainly do live an interesting times.

I was wondering, since we have those new thargoid ground bases where they seem to be growing strange things, is this what they might be using the escape pods for?

I think the next mission should be to find out where they are going with all these things, and it would also be fun to find out if we could use hatch breaker limpets on them as well (if they can pirate us, shouldn't we be able to Pirate them?).

 

[CMDR Vulkarius]

I wonder - will the new Thargoid Barnacle Matrices affect their systems' attack capability? We've already seen it means that the system can't be reclaimed.

Looks like we'll find out next cycle!
I took the names from that spreadsheet floating around (37 rows as of now), joined them to the INTRA data for display and got this for Taranis top 5......

So if HW-M b7-4 is blocked we should know from the sole attack on KR-W b1-4.
That's from the live-ish list at https://dev.iniv.space/targets/36

I reckon we could also use confirmations of systems which are NOT blocked - war progress from EDDN is a good proof.
I bet there's a whole load of repeated systems being searched due to not knowing all systems checked

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Retrospective prediction. New feature for this and following reports: Matrix Control systems are in bold.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-3	15.476	7	7	Hupang; Hyades Sector FB-N b7-4; HIP 23816; etc	No	0.4
Trianguli Sector FL-Y b5	19.749	3	3	Trianguli Sector CA-A c22; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; Trianguli Sector CA-A c15;	No	0.7
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-4	21.129	1	1	Hyades Sector HW-M b7-4;	No	0.7
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-88	22.107	3	3	Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; Hyades Sector HW-M b7-1 (10.021 LY);	No	0.3
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2	22.572	4	4	Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; 5 Mu Leporis; etc	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7	22.903	3	3	Ixbalan; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;	No	-0.8
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11	22.991	4	4	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; HIP 24834; etc	No	-1
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5	23.218	1	1	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3	24.638	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0;	No	0.1
Haushu	25.239	1	1	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5;	Yes	0.3
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82	25.603	1	1	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;	No	-0.7
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-3	25.796	2	2	Hyades Sector CV-O b6-2; Hyades Sector CV-O b6-4;	No	-0.6
Rikbakara	27.171	1	1	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 26534	28.300	1	1	Hyades Sector CV-O b6-4;	No	-0.8
Hyades Sector CV-O b6-6	29.624	3	3	Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; HIP 24834; Hyades Sector CV-O b6-5;	No	-1

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93	20.925	4	4	HIP 9709; Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-2; Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94; etc	No	0.9
Pathamon	22.064	3	3	HIP 7277; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-17;	Yes	0.5
Jementi	25.007	2	2	Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19; Patollu;	Yes	0.9
Ceti Sector XJ-A c18	25.359	1	1	Patollu;	No	0.9

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 19157	21.650	1	1	Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;	Yes	-0.6
HIP 20890	21.889	12	12	64 Tauri (10.013 LY); HIP 20577; HR 1354; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20527	22.540	17	17	Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20899	23.086	18	18	HIP 20916; HIP 20577; HR 1354; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20491	23.341	6	6	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes	0.4
HIP 20056	23.677	14	14	HIP 20577; HR 1354; Hyadum II; etc	Yes	1
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 21380	26.610	6	6	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1 (9.994 LY); HIP 21008; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 20850	26.986	9	9	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 21474	27.124	7	7	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	9	9	HIP 20815; HR 1358; 58 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	5	5	92 Sigma-2 Tauri; 78 Theta-2 Tauri; 80 Tauri; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3

81 additional targets not listed, 95 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 3006	18.930	1	1	Daruwach;	No	0.2
Lahua	19.363	1	1	Tougeir;	Yes	0.9
BD+77 84	20.166	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
HIP 21386	20.509	2	2	Liu Huang; Akbakara;	No	0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c22	21.188	3	2.8	Niu Yun (9.908 LY); Warnones; Cephei Sector AF-A c9;	No	0.5
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	1	1	HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Bumbo	22.416	1	0.2	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
Muncheim	23.557	1	0.2	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.7
Aowicha	23.769	1	0.2	Daruwach;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 2422	24.009	1	0.2	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.5
HIP 11111	24.118	1	0.8	Cephei Sector AF-A c9;	Yes	0.6
Poqomathi	24.136	1	0.2	HIP 7338 (10.020 LY);	Yes	0.6

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Canaharvas	23.548	3	3	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7;	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76	29.600	2	2	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No	0.7
HIP 39468	30.337	3	3	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7;	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6	30.355	2	2	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	1	1	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.635	3	3	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.965	1	1	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	2	2	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	1	1	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23	31.584	1	1	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0	31.614	1	1	HIP 35633;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector WD-G b12-0	31.821	3	3	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-2;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-20	31.825	2	2	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2 (10.002 LY); HIP 39409;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-2	31.970	2	2	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-1; Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-5	32.179	2	2	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4; Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3;	No	-0.5

16 additional targets not listed, 32 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2	21.239	1	1	Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-0;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0	22.796	2	2	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; HIP 18857;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1	22.991	1	1	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;	No	0.7
Unktety	25.357	1	1	HIP 19198;	Yes	1
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3	26.122	1	1	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1	33.636	2	2	HIP 18776; Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12	33.827	2	2	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16	34.883	4	4	HIP 19501; Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2; Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0; etc	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3	36.005	1	1	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;	No	-0.5

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Nu Guang	19.330	1	1	Snoqui;	Yes	0.9
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6	21.188	2	2	HIP 115162; Nibelaako;	No	0
Tagin	23.269	1	1	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9;	Yes	0.4
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2	23.770	3	3	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; Nibelaako; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0;	No	0.1
Isla	23.900	1	1	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY);	Yes	-0.1
Bormuninus	24.356	4	4	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0; etc	Yes	-0.3
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4	25.463	3	3	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.7
Aurus	25.723	6	6	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes	0.1
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0	25.901	1	1	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;	No	0.5
Pegasi Sector GW-V b2-3	25.918	2	2	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6 (9.914 LY); Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	No	-0.6
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-3	26.050	2	2	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22	26.084	1	1	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	No	-0.5
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-1	26.164	1	1	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3	26.607	9	9	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4	26.664	6	6	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-4	26.720	3	3	Iceniguari (10.027 LY); Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-3;	No	0.3

69 additional targets not listed, 85 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.225	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2	18.310	2	2	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;	No	-0.7
Fotlandjera	19.687	1	1	Omumba;	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31	20.046	6	6	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; HIP 31648; etc	No	-0
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8	20.607	1	1	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4	20.752	2	2	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3	20.783	7	7	HIP 31648; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etc	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29	21.254	4	4	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5	21.482	2	2	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	1	1	HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6	22.792	3	3	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2	22.853	1	1	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	22.869	2	2	HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6	23.515	1	1	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1	23.674	1	1	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5	24.456	1	1	HIP 32764;	No	-0.4

7 additional targets not listed, 23 total

 

[Ian Doncaster]

All as expected, everywhere except Oya, which was also expected. Though the way in which Oya was unexpected was itself somewhat unexpected, so I'm not sure we're making much progress here. Note that this means that Barnacle Matrix controls can attack but are themselves (for now?) invulnerable; most of them are of course also far enough in that they weren't going to be recaptured any time soon anyway.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 3006	18.930	1	1	Daruwach;	No	0.2
Lahua	19.363	1	1	Tougeir;	Yes	0.9
BD+77 84	20.166	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
HIP 21386	20.509	2	2	Liu Huang; Akbakara;	No	0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c22	21.188	3	2.8	Niu Yun (9.908 LY); Warnones; Cephei Sector AF-A c9;	No	0.5
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	1	1	HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Bumbo	22.416	1	0.2	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
Muncheim	23.557	1	0.2	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.7
Aowicha	23.769	1	0.2	Daruwach;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 2422	24.009	1	0.2	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.5
HIP 11111	24.118	1	0.8	Cephei Sector AF-A c9;	Yes	0.6
Poqomathi	24.136	1	0.2	HIP 7338 (10.020 LY);	Yes	0.6
Jeng	23.038	1	missed	Tougier	Yes	0.5

So: things that were somewhat expected.
- Cephei Sector AF-A c22 gets attacked
- HIP 8525, HIP 7338, Liu Huang, Akbakara pass entirely - even though this means no 5th Alert
- given that, HIP 11111 being attacked is also expected
- Daruwach going for Aowicha rather than the uninhabited HIP 3006, also not too surprising

More of a surprise:
- Tougier goes for Jeng rather than Lahua

I think I will need to add a rule - for now, just at Oya - that does the same 0.2 for further targets on inhabited->inhabited as currently happens for uninhabited->inhabited.
There also seems to be a preference at Oya for controls to hit the more distant targets for the same control where possible which might provide some more hint as to what's happening.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 10 August

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

Methodology change this week: the strikethrough ability to skip inner systems to attack further out is now only being considered for Oya, but at Oya it will now allow inhabited->inhabited skips.

Overall, this is predicting just 13 inhabited Alerts (the joint lowest), though depending on Thor and Leigong recaptures it might be the first week for a while where a full 40 Alerts can be placed.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 47 control systems and 948 targets.
Total connected: 39
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4	11.71637476
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b6	14.50871909
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0	16.57010439
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b7	16.95262816
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-5	17.17201007
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1	18.06744634
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5	18.07417443
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0	19.96349207

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0	14.378	4	4	Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; etc	No	0.5
HIP 23593	18.930	2	2	Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; Trianguli Sector CA-A c15;	No	0.6
29 e Orionis	21.620	2	2	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b6; Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0;	Yes	0.6
Hyades Sector KH-L b8-0	22.760	1	1	Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2;	No	0.3
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7	22.903	3	3	Ixbalan; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;	No	-0.8
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11	22.991	4	4	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; HIP 24834; etc	No	-1
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5	23.218	1	1	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3	24.638	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0;	No	0.1
Haushu	25.239	1	1	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5;	Yes	0.3
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82	25.603	1	1	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;	No	-0.7
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-3	25.796	2	2	Hyades Sector CV-O b6-2; Hyades Sector CV-O b6-4;	No	-0.6
Rikbakara	27.171	1	1	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 26534	28.300	1	1	Hyades Sector CV-O b6-4;	No	-0.8
Hyades Sector CV-O b6-6	29.624	3	3	Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; HIP 24834; Hyades Sector CV-O b6-5;	No	-1

No further targets possible
EB-N b7-0 at the top will be the first Alert within the original 15 LY auto-capture line, and an interesting test as to whether systems that close are practical to hold. Outside chance that Titans have a 15LY attack range and Taranis can go straight for Gandje as Alert 2.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 83 control systems and 910 targets.
Total connected: 83

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector FG-Y d66	18.068	3	3	HIP 9643; Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1; Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-2;	No	0.1
HIP 7143	28.380	1	1	Arietis Sector MX-U c2-18;	No	0.2
Arietis Sector VY-S b3-3	31.459	1	1	Arietis Sector LM-W c1-14;	No	-0.6
HIP 10972	33.629	1	1	Hyades Sector QD-T c3-15;	No	-0.7
Hyades Sector MT-I b9-1	33.905	1	1	Hyades Sector JN-K b8-4;	No	0

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 145 control systems and 848 targets.
Total connected: 145

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20485	21.436	18	18	63 Tauri; 71 Tauri; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20948	23.542	19	19	HIP 20577; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20056	23.677	14	14	HR 1354; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc	Yes	1
HIP 19757	24.520	4	4	HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; etc	Yes	0.1
HR 1403	24.664	8	8	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; HIP 21261; etc	Yes	0.9
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; HIP 21008; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 21654	26.426	6	6	86 Rho Tauri; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	No	0.9
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 21380	26.610	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1 (9.994 LY); HIP 21008; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 20850	26.986	9	9	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 21474	27.124	7	7	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	9	9	HIP 20815; HR 1358; 58 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	5	5	92 Sigma-2 Tauri; 78 Theta-2 Tauri; 80 Tauri; etc	No	1

64 additional targets not listed, 78 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 29 control systems and 967 targets.
Total connected: 26
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Akbakara	18.17006789

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector WO-A b4	15.395	3	3	Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16; HIP 10778;	No	-0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1	17.750	3	3	HIP 13179; HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	No	0.8
HIP 3006	18.930	1	1	Sambaho;	No	0.2
Cephei Sector ZE-A c8	19.896	1	1	HIP 10778;	No	-0.4
BD+77 84	20.166	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1	20.261	2	2	Kanus; HIP 7338;	No	0.6
Gliese 9035	20.494	1	0.2	HIP 10778;	Yes	-0.5
HIP 21386	20.509	2	2	Liu Huang; Akbakara;	No	0.7
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6	21.332	2	2	Ardhri; Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;	No	-0.1
Luggerates	21.962	1	0.2	Sambaho;	Yes	0.3
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	1	1	HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Bumbo	22.416	2	0.4	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
Muncheim	23.557	1	0.2	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.7
HIP 2422	24.009	2	0.4	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	Yes	0.5
Poqomathi	24.136	2	0.4	HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (10.020 LY);	Yes	0.6

No further targets possible
Based on recent previous weeks, I've highlighted the ones I think are most likely in yellow: normal attacks on the top 2, then Sambaho goes for Luggerates instead and HIP 10778 goes for Gliese 9035 instead, then Kanus attacks as normal. HIP 8525, HIP 7338, Liu Huang and Akbakara continue to not attack, so Ardhri could be the fifth, or it could be the deferred Sambaho attack.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 132 control systems and 860 targets.
Total connected: 129
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2	24.23140798
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2	25.80003104
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1	30.83090855

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5	19.034	1	1	Mapon;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16	21.655	2	2	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143; Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0;	No	0.7
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105	21.681	1	1	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106;	No	0.7
Vucumatha	23.098	4	4	Kurumanit; Mahlina; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13; etc	Yes	0.8
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1	24.157	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4	24.162	1	1	HIP 36901;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2	25.947	2	2	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; 19 Puppis;	Yes	0.4
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22	27.359	5	5	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; etc	No	0.7
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5	27.613	6	6	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22; etc	No	0.7
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1	27.741	4	4	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6; etc	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1	28.020	1	1	Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12	28.061	3	3	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14	28.140	1	1	HIP 37906;	No	-0.9
HIP 40229	28.302	3	3	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4	28.851	3	3	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25	29.283	1	1	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2;	No	-0.8

28 additional targets not listed, 44 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 87 control systems and 908 targets.
Total connected: 76
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
HIP 18857	24.61621433
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2	33.52490038
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17	35.48607782
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0	36.36741491
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3	37.93461686

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4	21.039	4	4	Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3; etc	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3	22.346	1	1	Vaipacnali;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3	32.800	2	2	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1; Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1	33.636	2	2	HIP 18776; Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12	33.827	2	2	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16	34.883	4	4	HIP 19501; Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2; Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0; etc	No	0.4

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 132 control systems and 862 targets.
Total connected: 131
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hosan	27.87701436

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Balak	23.024	7	7	Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785; etc	Yes	0.6
Bormuninus	24.356	3	3	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0;	Yes	-0.3
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-2	24.383	9	9	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Chakma; etc	No	0.6
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110	24.579	3	3	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-8;	No	-0.5
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-3	25.104	1	1	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4	25.463	3	3	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.7
Aurus	25.723	6	6	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes	0.1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-1	25.760	2	2	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-8; Hosan;	No	-0.4
Pegasi Sector GW-V b2-3	25.918	2	2	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6 (9.914 LY); Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	No	-0.6
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-3	26.050	2	2	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22	26.084	1	1	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	No	-0.5
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-1	26.164	1	1	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.7
Wanmi	26.362	1	1	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3;	Yes	0
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3	26.607	10	10	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4	26.664	5	5	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.4

58 additional targets not listed, 73 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 66 control systems and 929 targets.
Total connected: 65
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3	24.11759116

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10	17.369	4	4	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-0; HIP 30502; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; etc	No	0.9
Bi Dhorora	18.466	2	2	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; HR 2204;	Yes	0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16	20.418	3	3	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No	-0.7
Vogulu	20.728	2	2	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4	20.752	2	2	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3	20.783	7	7	HIP 31648; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etc	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29	21.254	5	5	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0	21.388	1	1	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5	21.482	1	1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4	21.892	2	2	HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	1	1	HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6	22.792	3	3	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2	22.853	1	1	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6	23.515	1	1	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1	23.674	1	1	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	24.192	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;	No	-0.7

8 additional targets not listed, 24 total

Spoiler: Exhausted Controls

-- exhaust below, recapture above
-- Taranis
Hupang:1
Trianguli Sector CA-A c22:1
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-4:1
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0:1
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-1:1
-- Leigong
HIP 9709:1
HIP 7277:1
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19:1
Patollu:1
-- Indra
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4:1
64 Tauri:1
Hyadum I:1
HIP 20916:1
HIP 19934:1
-- Oya
Daruwach:1
Tougeir:1
Niu Yun:1
Cephei Sector AF-A c9:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2:1
HIP 19198:1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5:1
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
HIP 115162:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
-- Hadad
Montioch:1
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1:1
Omumba:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7:1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3:1

 

[Ian Doncaster]

End of week updates:

Leigong

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector FG-Y d66	18.068	2	2	HIP 9643; Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;	No	0.1

Thor

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4	21.039	4	4	Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3; etc	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3	22.346	1	1	Vaipacnali;	No	0.5

Recaptures elsewhere don't change the main prediction; Cocijo loses some highly unlikely reserves, Taranis loses Haushu and has to get to 29 e Orionis the long way.

EDIT: typo when entering recapture data, so I missed that Bormuninus was protected at Raijin.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Results: once I'd fixed the typo in the Raijin recapture data, 100% everywhere except Oya.

At Oya, the standard algorithm as expected only got the first two correct; my own analysis then also got the third and fourth ... and there wasn't a fifth despite plenty of options from active Controls. I wonder if the strategy switch there also reduces the Alert placement total, though we did get five Alerts once relatively recently at Oya. For now, Oya predictions are going to have to continue being manual; I feel I'm getting a reasonable intuitive grasp of what they're going to do there, but don't yet see how to codify that quantitatively.

For other research possibilities: the obvious difference is that Oya is its lack of Controls total, with the odd behaviour really starting as it got below 40 (or maybe even 30); it might just about be possible to force Leigong, Thor or maybe even Taranis down into those ranges without any individual recapture being inside the 20 LY inhabited or 15 LY uninhabited ranges, but it would definitely be a long term project. Still, if we had two examples it might be easier to identify commonalities.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 17 August

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 44 control systems and 951 targets.
Total connected: 39
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4	11.71637476
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0	16.57010439
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-5	17.17201007
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1	18.06744634
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0	19.96349207

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Njorog	14.699	1	1	HIP 25654;	Yes	-0
HIP 25679	17.402	1	1	Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2;	Yes	0.4
Trianguli Sector CA-A c14	18.351	2	2	Trianguli Sector CA-A c22; Trianguli Sector CA-A c15;	No	0.9
HIP 23716	18.430	1	1	Trianguli Sector CA-A c15;	Yes	0.9
Ebisu	21.049	1	1	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4;	Yes	0.1
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11	22.991	4	4	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; HIP 24834; etc	No	-1
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5	23.218	1	1	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3	24.638	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0;	No	0.1
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82	25.603	1	1	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;	No	-0.7
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-3	25.796	2	2	Hyades Sector CV-O b6-2; Hyades Sector CV-O b6-4;	No	-0.6
Rikbakara	27.171	1	1	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-0;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 26534	28.300	1	1	Hyades Sector CV-O b6-4;	No	-0.8
Hyades Sector CV-O b6-6	29.624	3	3	Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; HIP 24834; Hyades Sector CV-O b6-5;	No	-1

No further targets possible
Last week showed that if Titans can attack, they're probably limited to the same range as a normal Control as Gandje was safe; Njorog is likely to have no such protection, so it'll be interesting to see if that Alert gets blocked as normal or finally generates an Invasion on the 31st. Meanwhile, erosion of Taranis' controls means that HIP 23716 is now in a position where it might take less effort to prevent its Alert than to defend its Alert, and Wakata finally gets a break.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 72 control systems and 926 targets.
Total connected: 72

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector GG-Y d64	27.045	1	1	Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-2;	No	-0.1
Arietis Sector ZP-P b5-1	31.758	3	3	Hyades Sector RO-R c4-20; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-19; HIP 6694;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-13	33.995	3	3	Hyades Sector LI-K b8-2; Hyades Sector LI-K b8-3; Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-12;	No	-0.6
Ceti Sector ZU-Y b3	36.447	1	1	Ceti Sector ZU-Y b1 (9.919 LY);	No	0.8

No further targets possible
The barnacle matrix guarantees at least one Alert at Leigong next week, but the other three are shakier.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 144 control systems and 850 targets.
Total connected: 144

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20492	24.043	16	16	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; 86 Rho Tauri; etc	Yes	1
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; HIP 21008; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 20019	25.583	12	12	HIP 20679; Hyadum II; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	5	5	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY); Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-3; etc	No	0.6
HIP 21654	26.426	6	6	86 Rho Tauri; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	No	0.9
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.471	4	4	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; HIP 21008; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-3; etc	Yes	0.8
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	3	3	79 b Tauri; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20616 (9.924 LY);	No	0.8
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 21380	26.610	4	4	HIP 21008; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 20850	26.986	9	9	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 21474	27.124	6	6	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	8	8	HIP 20815; HR 1358; 58 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	4	4	92 Sigma-2 Tauri; 78 Theta-2 Tauri; 80 Tauri; etc	No	1

61 additional targets not listed, 75 total
A fairly standard set of targets for Indra.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 29 control systems and 967 targets.
Total connected: 26
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Akbakara	18.17006789

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2	18.346	2	2	Ardhri; Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;	No	-0.2
HIP 4041	18.528	1	1	Sambaho;	No	0.3
HIP 3006	18.930	1	1	Daruwach;	No	0.2
Lahua	19.363	1	1	Tougeir;	Yes	0.9
Muchihiks	19.561	1	0.2	Tougeir;	Yes	0.9
BD+77 84	20.166	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
HIP 21386	20.509	2	2	Liu Huang; Akbakara;	No	0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c21	20.669	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c9;	No	0.8
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6	21.332	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;	No	-0.1
Luggerates	21.962	1	0.2	Sambaho;	Yes	0.3
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	1	1	HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Bumbo	22.416	2	0.4	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
Muncheim	23.557	1	0.2	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.7
HIP 2422	24.009	2	0.4	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	Yes	0.5
Poqomathi	24.136	2	0.4	HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (10.020 LY);	Yes	0.6

No further targets possible
So, going through again: Ardhri to AV-Y b2 looks obvious; Sambaho probably jumps ahead to Luggerates, but Daruwach and Tougier should be fine, with Tougier hitting the further-out of its two options. Then the usual inactive four do nothing, leaving some obvious uninhabited strikes for 4 and if it happens 5, which means the deferred Sambaho attack won't happen. Highly speculative, but I think will do better than just picking the top 5 would have.

I don't have a precise algorithm here, but I'm working on roughly this:
- work forward as normal
- if at any point the attacking control has inhabited systems at a greater distance it could use, instead defer the attack to that system
- if other controls use up the budget before the deferred attack is reached, it just doesn't happen
- Liu Huang and Akbakara just won't attack; from previous weeks this probably also applies to HIP 7338 and HIP 8525 based on previous weeks but the deferral rule is sufficient to explain them

There's some interesting interactions between Sambaho and Daruwach, the 3-week Alert cooldown cycle compared with the 2-week Control refresh cycle, and the recapture at BV-Y b2 which make this particularly difficult to predict, though; HIP 4041 being attacked or HIP 3006 being left alone ... or even Lahua over Muchihiks ... wouldn't be a total surprise.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 119 control systems and 875 targets.
Total connected: 115
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2	24.23140798
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2	25.80003104
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1	30.83090855
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.84914783

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15	18.409	4	4	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-96; Mahlina; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13; etc	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16	19.205	1	1	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;	No	1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5	20.306	6	6	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; etc	No	0
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-4	20.309	6	6	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; etc	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10	20.476	2	2	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7;	No	0.9
HIP 38718	20.765	2	2	Mahlina; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0	23.090	2	2	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3	23.190	1	1	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;	No	0.5
Vocovii	23.671	1	1	Col 285 Sector QX-H b11-2;	Yes	0.5
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69	23.672	2	2	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;	Yes	0.1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4	24.162	2	2	HIP 36901; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2	24.329	1	1	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;	No	0.5
Paitra	24.880	6	6	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; etc	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1	25.325	1	1	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2	25.947	2	2	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; 19 Puppis;	Yes	0.4

32 additional targets not listed, 47 total
Cocijo's perimeter shrinks but remains substantial.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 78 control systems and 920 targets.
Total connected: 71
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
HIP 18857	24.61621433

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0	21.776	5	5	Chanyaya; HIP 19894; Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14; etc	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96	22.000	10	10	Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; etc	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4	22.217	2	2	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8	22.752	9	9	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6; etc	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3	24.094	1	1	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5	24.842	2	2	Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14; HIP 20024;	No	0.3

No further targets possible
Thor is getting pushed back to relatively inner systems this week, many of which have unusually good connectivity. Still potential for some Alert reduction here, though.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 127 control systems and 866 targets.
Total connected: 126
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hosan	27.87701436

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 116360	20.902	2	2	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	Yes	-0.5
Vistnero	21.009	4	4	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; HIP 113535; etc	Yes	0.5
Holvandalla	21.476	8	8	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Humarala; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; etc	Yes	0.6
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4	22.349	5	5	Sholintet; Chinas; Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13; etc	No	-0.1
HIP 112595	23.560	5	5	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; etc	No	0.7
HIP 111081	24.703	15	15	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etc	No	0.2
Aurus	25.723	5	5	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes	0.1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-1	25.760	2	2	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-8; Hosan;	No	-0.4
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0	25.901	1	1	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9;	No	0.5
Pegasi Sector GW-V b2-3	25.918	2	2	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6 (9.914 LY); Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	No	-0.6
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-3	26.050	1	1	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22	26.084	1	1	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	No	-0.5
Wanmi	26.362	2	2	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3;	Yes	0
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3	26.607	8	8	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4	26.664	5	5	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.4

58 additional targets not listed, 73 total
Another normal week at Raijin

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 65 control systems and 929 targets.
Total connected: 64
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3	24.11759116

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12	17.571	2	2	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-2; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2	18.164	3	3	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;	No	-0.9
Muruidooges	18.367	3	3	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Montioch; HR 2204;	Yes	0.6
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0	18.841	3	3	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5	19.632	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3	20.783	7	7	HIP 31648; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etc	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2	21.112	1	1	Montioch;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29	21.254	4	4	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5	21.482	1	1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4	21.892	3	3	HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	1	1	HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6	22.792	3	3	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2	22.853	1	1	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6	23.515	1	1	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1	23.674	1	1	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5	24.456	1	1	HIP 32764;	No	-0.4

7 additional targets not listed, 23 total
And also normal at Hadad

Spoiler: Exhausted Controls

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85:1
Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4:1
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0:1
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2:1
Ixbalan:1
-- Leigong
HIP 9643:1
-- Indra
63 Tauri:1
HIP 20577:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 20419:1
HIP 20712:1
-- Oya
Cephei Sector WO-A b3:1
HIP 13179:1
HIP 10778:1
Kanus:1
-- Cocijo
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1:1
Vaipacnali:1
-- Raijin
Kaurukat:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14:1
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1:1

 

[Aleks Zuno]

We may have another M. Oya hypothesis; it fits the bizarre attacks for the last three weeks, it fits the number of attacks, it fits the other Maelstroms with normal attacks, and it may fit the last four weeks if one adds a special rule involving secondary targets of attackers which fumbled their first attempt. The system stops working earlier than that—although something easily could have changed that long ago, given that this is also around the same time that the problems stopped at M. Indra and M. Raijin. I think still that we are chasing a glitch, and also the attempts at fixing it!

The hypothesis is not too complicated, but neither is it particularly elegant and it admits no real intuition. To borrow a quite applicable Asimov phrase, I think the words logical but not reasonable make a fair description. I can describe it a bit if it would sate interest, but given the high chance of being nothing I will write instead what it predicts will happen this week:

• Non-Oya Maelstroms all attack normally.
• Ardhri attacks Cephei Sector AV-Y b2.
• Sambaho attacks HIP 4041.
• HIP 8525 attacks BD+77 84, if you can believe it.
• I think Liu Huang attacks HIP 21386.
• No fifth attack.

For a bit of comparison:

Null hypothesis	Narwhal hypothesis	INIV hypothesis
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2	Cephei Sector AV-Y b2	Cephei Sector AV-Y b2
HIP 4041	HIP 4041	HIP 4041
HIP 3006	HIP 3006	HIP 3006
Lahua	Lahua	Lahua
Muchihiks	Muchihiks	Muchihiks
BD+77 84	BD+77 84	BD+77 84
HIP 21386	HIP 21386	HIP 21386
Cephei Sector AF-A c21	Cephei Sector AF-A c21	Cephei Sector AF-A c21
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6	Cephei Sector AV-Y b6 ¹	Cephei Sector AV-Y b6

1. As noted earlier, if it happens.