Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

[Aleks Zuno]

I like those! I imagine not necessarily needing updated versions all the time, especially given that the Rajuarpai campaign would be enough to do for a while even without also responding to the discount opportunities provided by newer activities, although certain Matrix evictions such as the accursed Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3 would change things in an instant.

Speaking of which, the more immediate matter is discerning exactly what actions are causing Matrix progress, what it is doing to systems at similar Maelstrom distances, and whether Titan rescues still work for Counterstrike progress. M. Taranis has several systems with suspiciously similar progress as with those three Matrix systems, and it looks like it has dragged the inhabited 5 Mu Leporis along with the same proportion...

 

[Starsong]

I like those! I imagine not necessarily needing updated versions all the time, especially given that the Rajuarpai campaign would be enough to do for a while even without also responding to the discount opportunities provided by newer activities, although certain Matrix evictions such as the accursed Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3 would change things in an instant.

Speaking of which, the more immediate matter is discerning exactly what actions are causing Matrix progress, what it is doing to systems at similar Maelstrom distances, and whether Titan rescues still work for Counterstrike progress. M. Taranis has several systems with suspiciously similar progress as with those three Matrix systems, and it looks like it has dragged the inhabited 5 Mu Leporis along with the same proportion...

Someone dropped several thousand Taranis pods thie evening. It only boosted Modigi, not any of the other progressing systems - so the weird progress isn't caused by that. (From watching it, it seems the abnormal increase is going to every system more than 17Ly from Taranis irrespective of being counterstrike or not, or any accounting for system difficulty in percentage gain.
EDIT: Although, some of the systems (both Matrix and non-Matrix) are diverging in progress now, with a floor of 26%. Maybe there's progress being made with both this effect and some more traditional system-by system methods.

 

[Shadowsnog]

Someone dropped several thousand Taranis pods thie evening. It only boosted Modigi, not any of the other progressing systems - so the weird progress isn't caused by that. (From watching it, it seems the abnormal increase is going to every system more than 17Ly from Taranis irrespective of being counterstrike or not, or any accounting for system difficulty in percentage gain.)

didnt 5 mu leporis move as well?

 

[Starsong]

didnt 5 mu leporis move as well?

Not sure, actually. It's not a counterstrike as far as the GalMap shows and I wasn't watching it, but it's got about 8% of progress over the anomalous effect - which wouldn't fit for 4000 pods/800 samples exactly, though.

 

[Starsong]

Actually, I was wrong - DCoH is updating more thoroughly now and is showing all the 17Ly+ systems going up to 33% progress. Looks like there isn't any difference in the Matrixes and 5 Mu Leporis definitely wasn't affected by pods.

 

[Kira Goto]

It’s always possible there are randoms and various groups pushing through more conventional means. I’d wager a guess this is what’s going on here, as there has been progress in Modigi and 5 Mu periodically even before the addition of pod rescues from Titans.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

didnt 5 mu leporis move as well?

It moved, but that seems to be due to activity at the Matrix sites rather than due to rescues!

Given the specific wording "Expect Thargoids to prioritise defence of this location over peripheral systems", could that mean:

• Attempts to progress a Matrix site draw the Thargoid forces away from systems further out ("peripheral"), in effect protecting the Matrix by distributing that progress across all of those systems?
• The percentages follow because said forces are drawn from peripheral systems which are less vulnerable (lower progress) than the Matrix system?
• Completing those peripheral systems traditionally would ease completion of the Matrix system, having fewer others from which to draw forces (divert progress)?

 

[yttrbio]

The matrix sites don't seem to be any different than the other controlled systems in their progress from titan-wide contributions (whatever those might be).

I know there's been some investigation here in terms of alert placing: If there was to be a "titan major influence radius" (i.e. a range in ly where behavior would be different closer rather than further) that varies from titan to titan, would we have any idea what that might be?

 

[Aleks Zuno]

The Alert placement changes very, very clearly when the target systems involved lie beyond the farthest Control system at that Maelstrom. The Thargoids are very territorial and pay strict attention to Maelstrom distance; my suggestion was that the systems from which a Matrix site draws forces are exactly those which are further out than itself.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Similar effects - though much smaller - at most of the other Maelstroms as well: the outermost controls have a flat and fairly symmetrical amount of progress, regardless of their Spire/Inhabited/Other status or exact radius, and within that nothing (except occasional bits of other activity, of course)

Exactly how many controls or what radius from the edge varies a bit - without a particularly obvious pattern

Maelstrom	Number of affected controls	Affected shell depth	Total controls	Nearest affected	Furthest affected
Taranis	9 (3 spire, 2 inhabited)	1.91 <= r < 2.45	30	17.27 LY	19.18 LY
Leigong	5 (3 spire, 1 inhabited)	13.54 <= r < 13.82	24	17.61 LY	31.15 LY
Indra	10	1.45 <= r < 1.61	86	25.94 LY	27.39 LY
Oya	3 (3 inhabited)	0.41 <= r < 2.46	26	17.76 LY	18.17 LY
Cocijo	9 (1 spire)	5.4 <= r < 5.76	75	22.72 LY	28.12 LY
Thor	6 (1 spire, 1 inhabited)	1.77 <= r < 2.55	46	20.88 LY	22.65 LY
Raijin	0	n/a	98	n/a	n/a
Hadad	6 or 7? (1 spire either way)	2.4 <= r < 3.94	57	21.72 LY	24.12 LY

A mechanism where attacking a spire system hits some definition of the "outermost" systems instead (or as well, if the spire is outermost - though that could be a bug) seems plausible based on that.

(It also seems that Titan rescues have either entirely stopped contributing to Counterstrike progress or have been substantially reduced in power, judging by Cocijo/Raijin progress there)

If there was to be a "titan major influence radius" (i.e. a range in ly where behavior would be different closer rather than further) that varies from titan to titan, would we have any idea what that might be?

For Alert placement it seems to be "the distance to the furthest Control (including subtypes)". Not many other options for dynamic radius - where this week's Alerts are doesn't seem to have anything to do with it.

my suggestion was that the systems from which a Matrix site draws forces are exactly those which are further out than itself.

Doesn't seem to be that in this case - you'd expect systems to have higher progress the more Matrix sites they have inwards of them, rather than it being on or off, and there's often a gap of 0% progress systems between the closest-in periphery system and the next Matrix site. (Oya is particularly obvious in this respect, of course)

 

[yttrbio]

What is starting to look pretty possible is that the range is determined by the number of control systems: More control systems, larger radius. And what's interesting is that this contribution does not appear to scale with distance: 2% at 30 ly is 2% at 20 ly.

 

[yttrbio]

To summarize this hypothesis:

Last week: Every counterstrike system at any range gets a flat strength contribution for each pod (which means it scales with system strength)

This week: Every control system outside a certain range gets a flat percentage progress contribution for each pod (which means it does NOT scale with system strength)

The certain range is determined by the number of control systems around that titan.


It's also possible that some matrix activities contribute in the same way, I haven't seen any clear isolation of those effects, but pods continue to be overwhelmingly obvious.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

And what's interesting is that this contribution does not appear to scale with distance: 2% at 30 ly is 2% at 20 ly.

I worded the idea in a way which allows it still to scale with distance and also show a matching percentage; if the Matrix systems draw forces away from (that is to say, help the completion of) another system, it could be that they do so only if the other system has lower completion (that is to say, is more well-defended than the Matrix system). That way, such a supporting system would provide more Matrix system resistance if it is itself stronger, with both appearing to move together proportionally!

Even if that turns out to be incorrect, we are inbound to M. Taranis at the moment to remove HIP 24723 just in case there is a chance that it will help those Matrix systems! I will be quite delighted if it does, even if they do not finish this week.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

This week: Every control system outside a certain range gets a flat percentage progress contribution for each pod (which means it does NOT scale with system strength)
The certain range is determined by the number of control systems around that titan.

Not a perfect fit, but it's pretty close and would explain why nothing at Raijin is being affected.

 

[yttrbio]

Some data from Dark Session around Leigong:

 

[Kira Goto]

That is a lot of pods to be gathered in one week.

 

[yttrbio]

The idea that barnacle progress doesn't apply to control systems ahead of the barnacle doesn't really work with Dark Session's data. Another possibility, consistent with both the stall at Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 and the Leigong observation of progress even for Arietis Sector FG-Y d38 (which was ahead of the maelstroms), is that there is a hard cap at which titan-wide progress doesn't apply. Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99, Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3, and Modigi all were at around 85%, though some progress has been made in the individual systems since then. A "titan-wide progress doesn't apply past 85%" rule seems consistent with what we're seeing, while still being consistent with the Leigong experiment.

 

[yttrbio]

The barnacles have now gone past the other controls. I'm running out of ideas. Maybe:

Rescues apply to all controls outside a certain radius
Undetermined Activity X (e.g. killing things at spires, turning in spire materials to Palin, something else) only applies to barnacle systems outside a certain radius.

Or:

Rescues and/or undetermined activity X apply to all controls outside a certain radius, but non-barnacle systems cannot progress beyond 85% this way, while barnacle systems can.

 

[yttrbio]

But no, that doesn't work for Cocijo. So maybe...

Rescues apply to all counterstrike systems still?
Undetermined activity X applies to controls outside a certain radius?

But that's not consistent with the Leigong experiment. Maybe each titan has its own rules? I think I'm going to give up for now.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Some previously-recaptured Matrix systems reappearing on Monday has confused the predictions a bit, so a full refresh before we see this week's action: only four Alerts expected at Taranis and Oya, but Thor can still backtrack for a fifth.

Calculating Taranis
After recaptures, read 28 control systems (30 originally) and 965 targets.
Total connected: 27
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4	11.71637476

Furthest Control: 19.183 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b6	14.509	16.570	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0;	No
Trianguli Sector CA-A c22	15.033	8.625	HR 1737;	No
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-5	17.172	18.067	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1;	No
HIP 25679	17.402	9.739	Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-88	22.107	14.802	Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0;	No
HIP 24834	22.114	15.282	Hyades Sector HW-W d1-52; (backtrack Hyades Sector CV-O b6-3)	No
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8	23.972	15.649	Ixbalan;	No
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82	25.603	17.266	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;	No
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11	22.991	18.137	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; (backtrack Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2)	No
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-4	21.129	18.327	Hyades Sector HW-M b7-4;	No

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 24 control systems and 970 targets.
Total connected: 24

Furthest Control: 31.153 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19	17.164	14.064	Arietis Sector NX-U c2-20; Obassi Osaw;	No
Arietis Sector FG-Y d66	18.068	17.037	Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;	No
Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56	18.294	24.034	Arietis Sector MX-U c2-19;	No
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-1	19.754	11.929	Hyades Sector KN-K b8-2; Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3;	No
Hyades Sector LY-I b9-5	24.326	16.214	Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3; HIP 7819;	No
Arietis Sector KM-W c1-14	24.509	15.102	Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3;	No
Hyades Sector OT-I b9-1	24.640	30.134	Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4;	No
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-1	26.332	31.153	Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 86 control systems and 906 targets.
Total connected: 84
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Arietis Sector JM-T a4-0	25.94015423
Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1	26.00619668

Furthest Control: 27.394 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20712	18.554	11.332	HR 1385; HIP 20350; HIP 20349; etc	No
Hyadum II	18.976	11.826	63 Tauri; HIP 20350; 64 Tauri; etc	No
77 Theta-1 Tauri	20.629	13.186	64 Tauri; Hyadum I; HR 1354; etc	No
70 Tauri	20.963	14.040	Hyadum I; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc	Yes
HIP 20485	21.436	17.820	HR 1354; HIP 20679; HR 1358;	Yes
HIP 20890	21.889	17.871	HIP 20679;	Yes
HIP 20616	22.168	22.042	HR 1358;	Yes
HIP 20491	23.341	15.974	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1;	Yes
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4	23.647	26.794	Hyades Sector WK-L a9-2;	No
HIP 19757	24.520	17.955	HIP 20419;	Yes

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 26 control systems and 968 targets.
Total connected: 24
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Akbakara	18.17006789

Furthest Control: 18.170 LY
Furthest potential capture: 21.188 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Cephei Sector WO-A b4	15.395	8.517	Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16;	No
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2	15.989	18.170	Akbakara;	No
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1	17.750	15.681	Cephei Sector AF-A c9; HIP 8525;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 7338	18.853	12.495	Kanus;	Yes
HIP 4041	18.528	13.650	Ardhri (9.927 LY); (backtrack Cephei Sector AV-Y b2)	No
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2	18.346	14.331	Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;	No
Aowicha	23.769	15.711	Daruwach; (backtrack Cephei Sector ZE-A c8)	Yes
Poqomathi	24.136	17.920	HIP 8525; (backtrack BD+77 84)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2)(backtrack Bumbo)(backtrack HIP 2422)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6)(backtrack Gliese 3050)	Yes

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
After recaptures, read 67 control systems (75 originally) and 918 targets.
Total connected: 66
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1	20.85255624

Furthest Control: 28.116 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5	19.034	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;	No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16	21.655	16.153	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143;	No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22	22.973	18.193	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4;	No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0	23.090	15.964	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;	No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3	23.190	18.572	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69	23.672	17.774	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;	Yes
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0	23.772	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7	23.878	24.231	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2	24.101	21.455	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1	24.209	23.233	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2;	No

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 46 control systems and 947 targets.
Total connected: 40
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877

Furthest Control: 22.646 LY
Furthest potential capture: 24.094 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4	21.039	12.054	Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5	24.842	16.109	Chanyaya;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7	23.756	16.706	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; (backtrack HIP 21125)	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-2	23.534	18.083	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3;	No
HIP 21125	23.109	18.984	Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0)	No
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2	25.824	18.989	Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18	25.852	19.631	Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0	26.493	20.096	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6 (9.916 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2)	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-10	27.378	20.882	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79 (9.923 LY);	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1	25.234	20.924	Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0;	No

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
After recaptures, read 86 control systems (98 originally) and 895 targets.
Total connected: 86

Furthest Control: 27.097 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2	18.935	14.246	Alads; Chnemine; HIP 116351;	No
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9	19.751	12.944	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1; HIP 113535;	No
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1	22.028	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;	No
Nibelaako	22.263	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4;	Yes
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4	22.349	16.077	Sholintet; Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13;	No
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7	22.514	16.575	Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785;	No
Balak	23.024	18.082	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785;	Yes
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-0	23.218	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; etc	No
Ixbaksha	23.247	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; etc	Yes
HIP 112595	23.560	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5;	No

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
After recaptures, read 54 control systems (57 originally) and 935 targets.
Total connected: 54

Furthest Control: 24.118 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10	17.369	14.349	HIP 30502;	No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16	20.418	13.947	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4	20.752	17.346	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29	21.254	13.877	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; etc	No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6	22.792	17.395	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2	22.853	19.079	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	22.869	15.344	HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6	23.515	24.118	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1	23.674	19.276	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9	25.303	17.550	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;	No