Results:
- Taranis: 3 of 4 - my fault for not watching the calculations properly with the late recaptures, when fed the correct data and told not to pursue the >10 LY jump, the algorithm correctly predicts Ebisu as the 4th target after a mode-switch.
- Oya: 5 of 5 - it seems the attack process only needs to backtrack at some point to recover the fifth Alert, it doesn't need to be on the fifth, so Jeng gets attacked
- Thor: 3 of 4 - again, my fault for not recalculating properly after the late recaptures, the algorithm is fine
- no surprises elsewhere
I'll be adjusting the predictor to pick up the new discovery on backtracking, and also adjust the output format so I don't get caught out so much on mode-switching after recaptures.
EDIT: with Oya getting to Jeng, and Ebisu sneaking in, this is nine populated Alerts - still a record low.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Backtracking budget calculations changed, and a new format for the report to make the switchover point clearer and display post-switchover prioritisation. The "Advance" column has gone - it was only added for theorising about the priority changes, and doesn't appear to have anything to do with them. Control Distance column added instead.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 32 control systems and 962 targets.
Total connected: 28 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4
11.71637476
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0
14.80237655
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0
16.57010439
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1
18.06744634
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-1
18.57046862
Furthest Control: 21.008 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0
14.378
10.718
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85;
No
Trianguli Sector CA-A c15
16.000
8.625
HR 1737;
No
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b1
16.191
16.570
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-88
22.107
14.802
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0;
No
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8
23.972
15.649
Ixbalan;
No
Hyades Sector KH-L b8-0
22.760
16.214
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2;
No
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2
22.572
16.918
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-1;
No
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82
25.603
17.266
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;
No
Lovaroju
26.925
18.137
Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 (10.021 LY);
Yes
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-4
21.129
18.327
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-4;
No
Just four alerts expected this week. Outermost matrix at Taranis is around 18 LY so no way to move the border.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 27 control systems and 965 targets.
Total connected: 26 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4
30.13371891
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4
31.15324083
Furthest Control: 31.153 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Arietis Sector FG-Y d66
18.068
15.913
HIP 9643; Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;
No
Arietis Sector MX-U c2-17
21.735
17.330
HIP 7277;
No
Hyades Sector LY-I b9-5
24.326
16.214
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3; HIP 7819;
No
Hyades Sector OT-I b9-1
24.640
30.134
Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4;
No
Arietis Sector KM-W c1-15
24.725
15.102
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 (9.945 LY);
No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-4
25.161
17.037
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;
No
HIP 6570
26.257
31.153
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4 (9.947 LY);
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Last week's activity at Leigong has returned it to a mostly connected mass - with two matrix sites stuck way out there nevertheless
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
After recaptures, read 114 control systems (115 originally) and 878 targets.
Total connected: 115
Furthest Control: 27.394 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
HIP 20712
18.554
11.332
HR 1385; HIP 20350; HIP 20349; etc
No
Hyadum II
18.976
11.826
63 Tauri; HIP 20350; Hyadum I; etc
No
77 Theta-1 Tauri
20.629
14.040
Hyadum I; 71 Tauri; HIP 20916; etc
No
70 Tauri
20.963
15.082
71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc
Yes
HIP 20485
21.436
17.089
HIP 20916; HIP 20577; HR 1354; etc
Yes
HIP 20815
21.704
17.806
HIP 20577; HIP 20679; 86 Rho Tauri; etc
No
92 Sigma-2 Tauri
21.853
18.734
86 Rho Tauri; HIP 21261; HIP 22422;
No
58 Tauri
22.297
17.871
HIP 20679; 79 b Tauri (9.993 LY); HR 1358;
No
Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0
22.472
18.655
Obamumbo;
No
HIP 20527
22.540
19.444
79 b Tauri; HR 1358;
Yes
More Indra recaptures coming through to keep it away from inhabited systems
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 27 control systems and 967 targets.
Total connected: 25 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Tougeir
16.22455941
Liu Huang
17.75687587
Akbakara
18.17006789
Furthest Control: 18.170 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Cephei Sector WO-A b4
15.395
8.517
Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16; HIP 10778;
No
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2
15.989
17.757
Liu Huang; Akbakara;
No
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1
17.750
17.920
HIP 8525;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Cephei Sector ZE-A c8
19.896
12.244
HIP 10778;
No
HIP 4041
18.528
13.650
Ardhri (9.927 LY);
No
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2
18.346
14.331
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;
No
Aowicha
23.769
15.711
Daruwach;
Yes
HIP 21386
20.509
18.170
Akbakara;
No
Backtracking to AV-Y b2 is possible if Ardhri attacks so if one of the inner attacks was stopped then there would be five attacks, but as it is there should only be four.
(I need to modify the display to show which system is adding the backtracking opportunity here)
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 77 control systems and 917 targets.
Total connected: 76 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106
23.03364557
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2
24.23140798
Furthest Control: 28.116 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5
19.034
17.824
Mapon;
No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16
21.655
16.153
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143; Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0;
No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105
21.681
23.034
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106;
No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3
23.190
15.964
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17;
No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69
23.672
17.774
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;
Yes
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0
23.772
23.150
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6;
No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7
23.878
24.231
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2
24.209
20.745
HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2
24.329
21.222
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;
No
HIP 39750
24.684
21.295
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4;
No
Cocijo fairly normal this week
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 50 control systems and 944 targets.
Total connected: 45 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
HIP 20024
19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1
21.81126877
Furthest Control: 22.646 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4
21.039
12.054
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3; etc
No
Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3
22.346
18.643
Vaipacnali;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5
24.842
16.109
Chanyaya;
No
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2
25.824
18.989
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0
22.796
21.811
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1;
No
Thor is likely to regularly hit that control sphere edge now, probably another 4-Alert week here
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 104 control systems and 886 targets.
Total connected: 105
Furthest Control: 27.097 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2
18.935
14.246
Alads; Chnemine; HIP 116351;
No
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9
19.751
12.944
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1; HIP 113535;
No
Balak
23.024
16.575
Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785; etc
Was it ever found out why Ixbalan didn't go for Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8 last time?
The scheme test nails this cycle (42) as I left it but still has that Taranis blip in 41.
I've been trying a lot of rule ideas to limit how far the attackers can hold the door open for alts to get a chance but it always breaks something else
At the moment I'm also assuming the same rule which fixes Taranis 41 also has to fix Oya 32 not attacking as far as it could...
With that being the only example (assuming "prioritise inhabited" is true) it's tough to think of something which might apply. Might just have to wait for more examples.
I wonder if there's a sensible way to test if "prioritise inhabited" is true as a starting point?
The easiest test would be if Tougeir couldn't attack Jeng - see if it goes for Muchihiks or further out - but that would require things to line up so that it could attack on the 5th October, and usually there's too many controls closer in at Oya to let it go with just a 2-week gap.
Waiting another week so Taranis is in roughly the same position as 3 weeks ago to see if it happens again might get us more data too.
Got something
Throw out the inhab first sorting (Oya 32 quick fix) but use the remaining budget number to limit the NAF choice index for each attacker.
"Budget" includes after paying the 1 to start NAF, and the index limit is then fixed / doesn't reduce as more budget is spent.
The thin amount of sense this makes is "uh, if you can only hit 2 then only look at 2" although it sort of fits the territorial idea.
So for Oya 32 we had 1 normal hit then started NAF, which sets the index limit at 3.
That didn't affect Tougeir vs Lahua (nor did NAF really).
HIP 8525 can see DQ-Y b2, Bumbo, Poqomathi, DQ-Y b6, Gliese 3050 - but we can't select beyond item 3 so it hits Poqomathi (all 4 others are escapees though).
By pure luck HIP 7338 has the same list but with Muncheim 3rd instead, and it has the budget to hit it (would free-hit a 8525 escapee otherwise).
The index limit then reins Taranis 41 - 3 normal hits means NAF can't reach beyond the first in the list.
Ixbalan can't see past hitting PN-T c3-7, though that does put c3-5 and c3-8 on the escapee list.
FB-N b7-2 and BV-O b6-3 have no budget to hit non-escapees, then finally DQ-O b6-3 gets the free hit on c3-5.
NAF event order seems important - first check if the choice is a previous escapee, then try it hit it as a main, then check if the same control can hit other escapees.
3rd part there isn't fully known yet because all examples only had one escapee choice, so we don't know how it chooses / if it's the first or last.
Taranis 41 was close, if DQ-O b6-3 could have seen c3-8 then we'd have seen which it is.
Actually DQ-O b6-3 chooses c3-5 as a limited index then takes the free hit on it at NAF stage 1, doesn't even get to stage 3.
Stage 3 is needed though - some Oya attackers get a free alt-hit after having no budget to main-hit a non-escapee, just with the main hit checked first.
Interesting - and with so many systems at Oya either only able to hit one target or the week starting in NAF not a surprise that it rarely affects things there.
Came down to the question of "which Alerts do you assume will become Controls?" - implicitly, I've been predicting on the basis of "none of them", which has been empirically safe so far (and this week the remaining Alerts wouldn't change anything even if they were lost) but it might become rather more important if things close in to the point where they can get complicated (or if Matrix sites start being fightable to let Leigong be pushed into this behaviour)
For now I'll probably keep predicting on the assumption that all uninhabited Alerts get cleared, but make a note if this affects the potential ranges.
(This week this only affects Oya and Thor which have had all outer uninhabited Alerts cleared anyway)
Yeah, the only way alert complete/incomplete can change anything is if they were NAF alerts and leaving them turns a NAF case into a normal case.
They're likely to complete by definition (high distance) but if it matters, I'd use different highlights for what will* happen and what normals could happen if we get new controls.
*all of it (normal + especially NAF) being highly subject to control completion though - tinkering with a few controls can jumble the result way more.
I reckon the only practical way to highlight NAF attacks live is if the same list also lets you play what-if and check/uncheck any of those systems to change the completion hypothesis (controls + outer alerts + outer invasions with no ports if they ever existed).
As you've seen a lil' bit of JS can redo it instantly and let a user plan out a system set to do that cycle... might try that
I don't like the idea of highlighting NAF systems when we don't actually know 100% how it works though.
Outside the radius it's more practical just to look at the strength ratio and hit controls which could attack above their strength - their time will come around at some point whatever NAF does.
Speaking of not knowing how it works, I started building INTRA's attacker history further back (Hadad and Thor for now) and found a few faults.
Hadad is actually solid back to 17, and probably OK in 15-16 but I'd rather not pick apart 14 to find out, except for some unrelated invasion cooldown problems.
E.g. HIP 30260 invasion reached 6% in 13 and 100% in 14, but then an alert comes in 18 instead of 19 - it looks like long invasions had a 3-week cooldown and it trips up the prediction data assuming 4-week cooldown, nothing to do with the actual method.
Thor is solid back to 15 except for this in 27-28-
There aren't any inhabs around to change the sorting and the budget/index excuse doesn't work either (both shown there).
Something else limits the outreach like at Oya 32 and Taranis 41, just not those.
Am dumb - literally just after you were talking about new controls changing the radius as well...
CF-Q c5-17 there got an alert in 27 which wasn't stopped, increased radius to 46.3 and made 28 into normal attacks.
I'll update the part of the INTRA query which finds the radius - where history is involved it needs to look at an unfinished alert and assume nobody will finish it.
Doesn't fix 27 though as far as I can see 26 was 4 normal attacks then no budget for NAF, so that shouldn't add radius.
E.g. HIP 30260 invasion reached 6% in 13 and 100% in 14, but then an alert comes in 18 instead of 19 - it looks like long invasions had a 3-week cooldown and it trips up the prediction data assuming 4-week cooldown, nothing to do with the actual method.
I think I can add a little to this—it seems to me that there is something unknown about Invasions and their Recovery, and there are specific systems which show quite well that the respite can be clearly 4 weeks for some while also being demonstrably lower for others. To exclude any changes made by Frontier as a possible reason, some great examples which actually align together are Muruidooges or Unktety for four weeks, and Senocidi or 63 Eridani for three weeks.
Muruidooges and Unktety have been similar in having an entrenched attacker, the former less so now of course, but otherwise where said attacker has that option exclusively and exercises it always as soon as possible. Both had long Invasions which lasted at least three weeks, both were defended in week 18, and both enjoyed four weeks respite before seeing new Alerts in week 23. As it happens, they then both had two-week Invasions defended in week 25, then another four weeks respite before Alerts in week 30.
Conversely, Senocidi and 63 Eridani had the same start—a long Invasion of least three weeks, defended in week 18—yet their next Alerts were somehow week 22. A lighter example is Aurus, where a two-week Invasion was defended at the same time, and again the next Alert was week 22.
It is clear that lack of port damage means a two-week respite, but beyond that it seems more complicated; perhaps related to the numbers or types of port, but definitely not related directly to the Invasion duration. We have above some three-week Invasions with a three-week respite, and I can strengthen the converse example with Lovaroju, which had a two-week Invasion ending at the same time but remained with the Recovery state for four weeks.
Without having established any new Maelstroms in that direction, not even close! This question has been asked a few times; because the Thargoids insist on owning every single system within any volume they inhabit, their sphere expansion becomes very slow. Imagine starting at our core systems and attempting to reach Colonia, but you can only proceed by visiting and scanning every system in order of distance from your starting position, becoming a galaxy-sized sphere.
Estimates are tricky, but from memory you can expect an order of centuries of Human inaction before Thargoids capture the bubble, and millions of years before Colonia is reached. Of course, in reality we have forced Thargoid control to recede steadily now for many months; this is explained a bit at the top of this thread, which contains a quick general war state.
With the good @Ian Doncaster seeming a little busy, I can at least review the week 43 prediction here for week 44 Alerts:
Maelstroms Cocijo, Indra, Leigong, Oya, Raijin and Taranis were all correct, including the exterior and fewer total targets at Oya and Taranis.
Maelstrom Hadad was correct after evictions at Montioch and Col 285 Sectors RH-B b14-4 and RH-B b14-5 guarded HR 2204 and Vogulu.
Maelstrom Thor expected four Alerts, but gave us instead all five, presumably for reasons unknown and unexplained.
As V noted earlier, it seems that a theoretical gap persists. In a way the mistake at M. Thor is quite good to uncover; we reduced its radius deliberately to induce more behavioural examples, be it to reinforce or to revise any hypotheses! Perhaps they define their territorial volume differently?
This changed around U15 to give all extended Invasions four-week respites, so older data might miscalculate on that but it seems solid now.
Thank you for doing the checks on the prediction - I was as you guessed busy elsewhere this morning. Maybe backtracking isn't the explanation for Alert recovery, solid as it seemed at Oya and also at Taranis this week.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Another week with very few inhabited Alerts predicted - a further record low of 5 this week is likely to be followed by at most 6 next week (many of which do have some theoretical prevention opportunities, but not straightforward ones). If this continues, it's possible that the current availability of Invasions may again be temporary.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 32 control systems and 962 targets.
Total connected: 28 Disconnected Controls
So, a similar situation to three weeks ago outside the control sphere - Ixbalan should be able to reach c3-8 as an attack, allowing a backtrack to c3-5 later to make a fifth attack. But three weeks ago, Ixbalan just went to c3-5 and the backtrack to c3-7. There's also a chance that unprevented Alerts will push the sphere out to bring in KR-W b1-4 in the inside phase. So this prediction is particularly uncertain, but hopefully we'll learn something.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 27 control systems and 966 targets.
Total connected: 26 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4
30.13371891
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4
31.15324083
Furthest Control: 31.153 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-0
20.468
14.417
HIP 9180; Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0; Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;
No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-2
21.470
17.037
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;
No
HIP 9137
22.059
14.720
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0;
No
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-4
24.333
17.809
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-3;
No
Arietis Sector LM-W c1-14
25.446
18.476
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1;
No
HIP 6570
26.257
31.153
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4 (9.947 LY);
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
HIP 6489
31.786
24.034
Arietis Sector MX-U c2-19;
No
Doesn't seem likely to get as far as the edge this week, though with a couple of recaptures it could be done.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 108 control systems and 881 targets.
Total connected: 109
Indra of course is going to be on inside-only attacks for a long time, but note the success of previous operations here at cutting it down to a single inhabited Alert. That could theoretically - unusually for Oya's density - be avoided by retaking HIP 20679 and HIP 20379, leaving the Matrix at HR 1358 used up before HIP 20527.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 27 control systems and 967 targets.
Total connected: 25 Disconnected Controls
I've assumed Muchihiks rather than the further but uninhabited potential target for Tougeir since Jeng is still on cooldown, but even with Daruwach being able to backtrack it doesn't look like we'll find out this week. (Recaptures to test this would need to be careful not to destroy the backtrack and limit Oya to 4 Alerts anyway, so it's probably not practical)
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 77 control systems and 917 targets.
Total connected: 76 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106
23.03364557
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2
24.23140798
Furthest Control: 28.116 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15
18.409
9.869
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-96; Kurumanit; Mahlina;
No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16
19.205
17.688
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;
No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3
19.395
13.304
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-7; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; etc
No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5
20.306
12.899
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;
No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-4
20.309
14.428
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; Mahlina;
No
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0
22.551
21.295
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2;
No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1
22.888
16.621
Ulche; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; etc
No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22
22.973
18.193
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;
No
Vucumatha
23.098
20.237
Kurumanit; Mahlina;
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13
23.161
21.146
Mahlina;
No
This one looks fairly straightforward.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 50 control systems and 943 targets.
Total connected: 45 Disconnected Controls
Calculating Hadad
Read 59 control systems and 933 targets.
Total connected: 59
Furthest Control: 27.145 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12
17.571
13.132
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-2; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;
No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2
18.164
17.395
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;
No
Muruidooges
18.367
9.378
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY);
Yes
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0
18.841
10.064
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;
No
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5
21.482
16.067
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;
No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4
21.892
15.344
HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;
No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6
22.792
17.550
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;
No
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2
22.853
19.079
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;
No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6
23.515
24.118
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;
No
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1
23.674
19.276
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;
No
RH-B b14-2 attacking Muruidooges is part of the recent isolation attacks at Hadad, though it might not be this week that route gets cut off, of course. Otherwise relatively controlled right now.
Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85:1
HR 1737:1
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0:1
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0:1
-- Leigong
HIP 9643:1
HIP 7277:1
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3:1
Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4:1
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3:1
-- Indra
HR 1385:1
63 Tauri:1
Hyadum I:1
HIP 20916:1
HIP 20577:1
-- Oya
Cephei Sector WO-A b3:1
Liu Huang:1
HIP 8525:1
HIP 10778:1
-- Cocijo
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1:1
Vaipacnali:1
Chanyaya:1
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1:1
-- Raijin
Alads:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1:1
Kaurukat:1
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4:1
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78:1
Yes. Two problems with using it, though:
1) The cooldown time before another attack is possible, in the case of a 3-week recovery, goes on a week after nowadays. So the benefit of 3-week over 4-week is that you get a free week where the system is guaranteed full normal operation, but it doesn't matter for attack predictions (or rather, it doesn't now - it used to) as the system won't be being attacked in week 4 whether it's in Recovery or None.
2) Unless they've fixed it recently (I haven't checked lately) the 4-week recovery ones report a 3-week recovery time until the first day of week 4, when their timer jumps from 0 hours to 6 days 23 hours.
In theory this is supposed to be to do with the Odyssey reactivation missions - reactivate all the settlements to shorten the timer. But with those missions being unreliable and the conditionality on the display not updating properly either, it's really hard to tell if that's actually why some of them still take 4 weeks.
Yes. Two problems with using it, though:
1) The cooldown time before another attack is possible, in the case of a 3-week recovery, goes on a week after nowadays. So the benefit of 3-week over 4-week is that you get a free week where the system is guaranteed full normal operation, but it doesn't matter for attack predictions (or rather, it doesn't now - it used to) as the system won't be being attacked in week 4 whether it's in Recovery or None.
2) Unless they've fixed it recently (I haven't checked lately) the 4-week recovery ones report a 3-week recovery time until the first day of week 4, when their timer jumps from 0 hours to 6 days 23 hours.
In theory this is supposed to be to do with the Odyssey reactivation missions - reactivate all the settlements to shorten the timer. But with those missions being unreliable and the conditionality on the display not updating properly either, it's really hard to tell if that's actually why some of them still take 4 weeks.
Sadly, it's not that consistent. Sometimes they show as 4-week recoveries from the start, sometimes not. Some of the 3-week recoveries take 3 weeks, some don't.
