It's not the first one. Last weekly maintenance period was the first one since Taranis had already been established for two days. Attacked stations switched to damaged/abandoned and the Alert systems (hosting the Orthrus) appeared. That's why the other two maelstroms have no systems on Alert (but likely will after tomorrow).
Analysing the Thargoid Simulation
- Thread starter Ian Doncaster
- Start date
From the news section
That changes things quite a bit from "focused effort might be able to save a system or two" to "you're all dead, sorry" as things currently stand.
That changes things quite a bit from "focused effort might be able to save a system or two" to "you're all dead, sorry" as things currently stand.
I guess they will tweak the values needed per system. Did AXI manage to turn that one system they were focusing on?
Anyway, the new Exo payouts will keep the carrier running in the Black if we all have to run away :-D
Yeah, they've said they'll adjust the thresholds (and there was no chance on something this completely different to anything ED has seen before they'd be right first time, obviously). AXI got closer than anyone else did, but I think still under half-way.
With the latest Canonn observational data, it's clear that none of them are arriving this Thursday - could be all five next week, or some of them could hang back even more.
EDIT: Or, fine, they could just teleport 30 LY on the server reset and arrive tomorrow, that works too, whatever
EDIT: Or, fine, they could just teleport 30 LY on the server reset and arrive tomorrow, that works too, whatever
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wow... tht's a deep cut into the bubble.
And Lhou Mans, population 3.99 billion, also likely in the initial range.
Ah, interesting. Now there's less than 24 hours to the server cycle, the Week/Day bug doesn't seem to happen if it would read X Weeks 0 days.
Looking at the various Invaded systems around Taranis:
HIP 23716: 3 ports, 2 weeks
Imuet: 2 ports, 2 weeks
Matshiru: 0 ports, falls tomorrow
HIP 25679: 3 ports, 3 weeks
Modigi: 2 ports, 2 weeks
Hyades HW-W d1-52: 0 ports, falls tomorrow
5 Mu Leporis: 0 ports, falls tomorrow
Ixbalan: 1 port, 1 week
63 Eridani: 3 ports, 2 weeks
Similar sorts of numbers at the other two maelstroms.
So, based on that, it looks something like "you get one week per port, plus one week with no ports, to a maximum of 4 weeks total" to stop the invasion. So bigger systems are easier to protect (in a very limited way with the weekly reset) but the really big systems won't be a several-month roadblock to them.
-=-=-=-
Something else to watch for is what happens with Alerts tomorrow. Presumably Indra and Leigong will throw some out ... the question is, will Taranis get some more, or is that an "every other week" thing? And how many they each get, of course.
Looking at the various Invaded systems around Taranis:
HIP 23716: 3 ports, 2 weeks
Imuet: 2 ports, 2 weeks
Matshiru: 0 ports, falls tomorrow
HIP 25679: 3 ports, 3 weeks
Modigi: 2 ports, 2 weeks
Hyades HW-W d1-52: 0 ports, falls tomorrow
5 Mu Leporis: 0 ports, falls tomorrow
Ixbalan: 1 port, 1 week
63 Eridani: 3 ports, 2 weeks
Similar sorts of numbers at the other two maelstroms.
So, based on that, it looks something like "you get one week per port, plus one week with no ports, to a maximum of 4 weeks total" to stop the invasion. So bigger systems are easier to protect (in a very limited way with the weekly reset) but the really big systems won't be a several-month roadblock to them.
-=-=-=-
Something else to watch for is what happens with Alerts tomorrow. Presumably Indra and Leigong will throw some out ... the question is, will Taranis get some more, or is that an "every other week" thing? And how many they each get, of course.
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Cocijo seems to be targetting a much less populated area unless I'm looking at it wrong because there's a lot of unpopulated systems nearby, I wonder how that affects it's reach.
Yes - as with Leigong, the AW positioning means it's going to hit pretty much exactly the edge of the bubble rather than going off a little way inside.
If the precedent from Leigong is anything to go by, probably fewer initial control systems that were inhabited, and maybe fewer initial invasions too.
This feels like an "implosion device". Move towards the center from the extremities.
Goose Bay, Loring, and Elmendorf have been hit. Bremerton and King's Bay are next. (You have to be US military to understand how many times this scenario has been run).
Goose Bay, Loring, and Elmendorf have been hit. Bremerton and King's Bay are next. (You have to be US military to understand how many times this scenario has been run).
From the Operation IDA Discord:
Hi all,
Due to the information released today, making it clear all system progress will be reset every 7 days, we have made the tough decision to discontinue tracking and no longer focus on support and relief efforts for HIP 23716, or any other thargoid war systems.
While we encourage everyone to take part in the new Thargoid war content as they see fit. We do not feel we can advise our members to spend their time and effort on this dangerous hauling. After being given a timer showing 7 weeks, a vast portion of the community put their all into a single system, managing to move the bar to around 40% complete, yet all that work is now set to be erased.
Until more is known, and the expectations and requirements changed or at least made clear we will only be focusing on CG work when available.
To everyone who worked with us to move cargo and complete missions in HIP 23716, to all the AX and rescue commanders, we thank you for your exceptional efforts this last week.
~Op-Ida Management
Hi all,
Due to the information released today, making it clear all system progress will be reset every 7 days, we have made the tough decision to discontinue tracking and no longer focus on support and relief efforts for HIP 23716, or any other thargoid war systems.
While we encourage everyone to take part in the new Thargoid war content as they see fit. We do not feel we can advise our members to spend their time and effort on this dangerous hauling. After being given a timer showing 7 weeks, a vast portion of the community put their all into a single system, managing to move the bar to around 40% complete, yet all that work is now set to be erased.
Until more is known, and the expectations and requirements changed or at least made clear we will only be focusing on CG work when available.
To everyone who worked with us to move cargo and complete missions in HIP 23716, to all the AX and rescue commanders, we thank you for your exceptional efforts this last week.
~Op-Ida Management
Yeah, about that... the galaxy map is lying.
You can see a hint of it if you look at the system count numbers shown in the thargoid war panels for each maelstrom - the number of controlled systems will appear higher than the number of green dots. Some people assumed this was because it was including the invaded systems in that count, but those aren't under their control yet.
If you jump around and visit some of the nearby systems that aren't shown on the thargoid war map, they will show THARGOID above your fuel gauge on the HUD, revealing that they are in fact under thargoid control (but have no active "attack cycle"). We've managed to find all the "missing" controlled systems except one around Leigong, so possibly the count does include the maelstrom system itself.
Whether or not there is a correlation between these hidden controlled systems and the alert systems remains to be seen but I wouldn't be surprised.
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I believe it's just every system within 15 ly. That was the case for Taranis, and there are 11 systems within 15 ly of Leigong (which says it controls 11, even if the map doesn't). There are 25 controlled systems around Indra, but 26 systems within 15 ly, so there's an exception, which makes me think "capped at 25." Every populated system between 15 and 20 ly got an invasion. Meanwhile, every populated system within 10 ly of a control system around Taranis got an alert on its weekly tick, while none of the populated systems more than 10 ly away from a control system around Taranis did, which makes me suspect 10 ly is the range. In which case Indra would hit HIP 22524, Scythia, 70 Tauri, HIP 20485, and Leigong would hit no populated systems. That's just hypothesis at this point, so I'm hoping to confirm/reject next tick, and I haven't found any obvious pattern around the nonpopulated system alerts around Taranis (they aren't particularly spread out, they don't prioritize systems with planets, they don't favor moving towards the nearest Ammonia worlds as far as I can tell).
If it does actually grab all systems within 15 ly on arrival, though, Oya is coming in less than that distance away from Inara and Lhou Mans, which is 7.5 billion population. I'm hoping that systems of that size get a chance to fight back.
If it does actually grab all systems within 15 ly on arrival, though, Oya is coming in less than that distance away from Inara and Lhou Mans, which is 7.5 billion population. I'm hoping that systems of that size get a chance to fight back.
The way it's looking, higher population just means more weekly retry attempts (due to more stations).
For invasions, that's true. But the systems within 15 ly of the Maelstrom (even populated ones) were insta-controlled with no chance to fight back when the Maelstroms arrived. Invasions only happened between 15-20 ly out. Looks like Inara and Lhou Mans are now controlled, so no exception for them
Yes - the galaxy map doesn't (always) match the individual numbers given for each maelstrom, and neither matches the overall numbers given for the war effort.
I'll add it to the bug list.
So the three existing Maelstroms have put out a bunch more alerts. Again, more questions than answers:
- There doesn't seem to be any obvious correlation between the previous control size of the maelstrom and how many alerts it put out.
- The alerts themselves don't seem to follow any really obvious targeting pattern: Leigong's mostly are further from the bubble than it is, all three have largely or entirely picked uninhabited systems
- The alerts are generally in-fills or on the edge of existing territory, which isn't a surprise. A simple "closest to existing control systems" rule would do that - but would also lead to them expanding much more rapidly into the uninhabited space outside the bubble (as Alert will go directly to Control there) - so there may be more to it.
EDIT: also on Alerts, AXI have announced that their weekly target will be the Alert system of HIP 20485 (one of the two populated ones this week). They're not expecting to win, I think, but they are hoping to get some useful data on how much effort it takes to move the bar, if anyone feels like fighting the war in somewhere technically useful.
Today's Galnet also raises the question of what the Thargoid's goal is: it doesn't appear to be a specific system, or if it is, the Thargoids don't know which one either. It might become more obvious once all eight are in and have had chance to take more territory ... or it might be something more abstract like "surround us first". I'll add that to the unanswered questions list, though not with any hope of an answer soon.
- There doesn't seem to be any obvious correlation between the previous control size of the maelstrom and how many alerts it put out.
- The alerts themselves don't seem to follow any really obvious targeting pattern: Leigong's mostly are further from the bubble than it is, all three have largely or entirely picked uninhabited systems
- The alerts are generally in-fills or on the edge of existing territory, which isn't a surprise. A simple "closest to existing control systems" rule would do that - but would also lead to them expanding much more rapidly into the uninhabited space outside the bubble (as Alert will go directly to Control there) - so there may be more to it.
EDIT: also on Alerts, AXI have announced that their weekly target will be the Alert system of HIP 20485 (one of the two populated ones this week). They're not expecting to win, I think, but they are hoping to get some useful data on how much effort it takes to move the bar, if anyone feels like fighting the war in somewhere technically useful.
Today's Galnet also raises the question of what the Thargoid's goal is: it doesn't appear to be a specific system, or if it is, the Thargoids don't know which one either. It might become more obvious once all eight are in and have had chance to take more territory ... or it might be something more abstract like "surround us first". I'll add that to the unanswered questions list, though not with any hope of an answer soon.
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