Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Narwhal Nose report generated 7 September

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

After last week generating a record low of 10 uninhabited Alerts, this looks to be back up to 13 (with a couple of candidates for prevention) including both Omumba and Njorog as expected, so it's going to be a tough defence in general.

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Calculating Taranis
Read 39 control systems and 956 targets.
Total connected: 36
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-411.71637476
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b016.57010439
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-118.06744634


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b614.50911Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0; No0.6
Njorog14.69911HIP 25654; Yes-0
Trianguli Sector CA-A c1418.35111Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; No0.9
HIP 2371618.43011Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4;Yes0.9
Hyades Sector KH-L b8-022.76011Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2;No0.3
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-722.90333Ixbalan; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;No-0.8
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-1122.99133Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; HIP 24834; Hyades Sector CV-O b6-5; No-1
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-523.21811Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;No-0.9
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-8225.60311Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;No-0.7
1 additional targets not listed, 10 total
Taranis returns to Njorog as it gets pushed well within the 20 LY line.

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Calculating Leigong
Read 40 control systems and 958 targets.
Total connected: 32
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hyades Sector GR-W d1-9316.95933786
Hyades Sector GH-M b7-119.61536885
Hyades Sector GH-M b7-219.92191789
Hyades Sector GH-M b7-020.74929404
Hyades Sector FH-M b7-221.17212292
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-221.95756739
Ceti Sector BQ-Y b430.13371891
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-431.15324083


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
HIP 90169.60311HIP 8887;No0.8
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-221.47022HIP 9180; Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;No-0.3
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-322.23611Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;No-0.4
Arietis Sector MX-U c2-1823.50344Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0; Hyades Sector JN-K b8-3; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; etcYes0.1
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-424.33322HIP 7277; Hyades Sector JN-K b8-3;No-0
Arietis Sector KM-W c1-1424.50911Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3; No-0.7
Ceti Sector XJ-A c1825.35911Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19;No0.9
Arietis Sector LM-W c1-1425.44611Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1;No-0.7
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-331.22111Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4; No-0.1
2 additional targets not listed, 11 total
A bunch of distributed attacks this week as previous recaptures at Leigong come off cooldown. Highlighted is the outcome of Operation Redacted: if a Titan can place its own attacks we would expect a typical 1-5 placement; if it can't, then KM-W c1-14 is currently the 6th in the table and would really be the fifth.

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Calculating Indra
Read 122 control systems and 870 targets.
Total connected: 122

TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
HIP 2049224.0433386 Rho Tauri; 79 b Tauri; HR 1358; Yes1
HIP 2074124.47844HR 1354 (10.023 LY); HIP 20679; HIP 21261; etcYes1
HIP 1975724.52044HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; etcYes0.1
HR 140324.66433Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; HIP 21261; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1 (9.924 LY);Yes0.9
HIP 2220325.39422HIP 22496; HIP 22422;No0.8
HIP 1978125.57011HR 1358; Yes0.9
HIP 2001925.58311HIP 20679;Yes1
68 Tauri26.12311HIP 21261;No1
48 additional targets not listed, 56 total
Indra on its slightly further out part of the cycle, but still largely hitting inhabited systems as many of the recaptures so far are still in cooldown.

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Calculating Oya
Read 28 control systems and 968 targets.
Total connected: 25
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Tougeir16.22455941
Liu Huang17.75687587
Akbakara18.17006789


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Cephei Sector AV-Y b218.34622Ardhri; Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;No-0.2
HIP 404118.52821.2Ardhri (9.927 LY); Sambaho;No0.3
HIP 300618.93022Sambaho; Daruwach;No0.2
Lahua19.36311Tougeir; Yes0.9
Muchihiks19.56110.2Tougeir; Yes0.9
BD+77 8420.16611HIP 8525;Yes0.9
Gliese 903520.49422HIP 10778; Daruwach;Yes-0.5
HIP 2138620.50911Akbakara; No0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c2120.66911HIP 13179;No0.8
Cephei Sector AV-Y b621.33221.2Ardhri; Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;No-0.1
Luggerates21.96210.2Sambaho; Yes0.3
Cephei Sector CV-Y b122.03910.2Tougeir; No0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b222.14910.2HIP 8525;No0.5
Bumbo22.41610.2HIP 8525; Yes0.9
Cephei Sector AV-Y b023.57511Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;No-0.5
Aowicha23.76911Daruwach;Yes-0.3
HIP 242224.00910.2HIP 8525; Yes0.5
Poqomathi24.13610.2HIP 8525; Yes0.6
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b624.95310.2HIP 8525;No0.9
Gliese 305025.57910.2HIP 8525;No0.6
No further targets possible
The NAF prediction is highlighted in yellow (with AF-A c21 as the fifth target). Gliese 9035 is being attacked from HIP 10778 in all models, which gives the possibility under the shell model (or a simple restriction on the 5th target being more than 20 LY out) of AF-A c21 being swapped for HIP 3006 as Daruwach comes back to hit it (Aowicha out of range there). An interesting week here in that there's a very substantial divergence between the NAF targets and the classical ones - based on weeks 35 and 38 this is likely to be much closer to the NAF outcome - and of course I'll be trying to find time to study last week's events to see if a better model presents itself, since that was a long way from NAF either.

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 80 control systems and 915 targets.
Total connected: 78
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-10623.03364557
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-224.23140798


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1518.40933Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-96; Mapon; Mahlina; No0.8
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1619.20511Mapon;No1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-520.30655Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; etcNo0
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-420.30955Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; etcNo0.4
Vocovii23.67122Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Mahlina;Yes0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-424.16211HIP 36901;No0.9
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-224.32922Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;No0.5
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-524.86411HIP 38235;No-0.5
15 additional targets not listed, 23 total
Cocijo still has quite a bit of room but has been coming under increased pressure. Vocovii might be possible to deter the attack.

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Calculating Thor
Read 71 control systems and 924 targets.
Total connected: 64
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Rajuarpai11.4695589
Chanyaya16.10879151
HIP 1989416.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1417.71585625
HIP 2002419.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-121.81126877
HIP 1885724.61621433


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-021.77655Chanyaya; HIP 19894; Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14; etcNo0.4
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-9622.0001010Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; etcNo0.2
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-822.75299Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6; etcNo0.1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-8024.57411Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2; No-0.3
HIP 1877628.05711Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18;No0.6
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-128.41222Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2; HIP 17310; No-0.7
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-8129.90611Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0;No-0.1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-030.23911HIP 17310; No-0.7
0 additional targets not listed, 8 total
Not many options this week and a possibility of cutting Thor below 5 Alerts with targeted attacks.

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Calculating Raijin
Read 115 control systems and 880 targets.
Total connected: 114
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hosan27.87701436


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-220.14822Marindhs; Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3;No-0.6
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-020.7561111Mora; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-6; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9; etcNo-0.3
HIP 11636020.90222Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; Yes-0.5
Vistnero21.00944Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; etcYes0.5
Holvandalla21.47677Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Humarala; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; etcYes0.6
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-422.34955Sholintet; Chinas; Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13; etcNo-0.1
HIP 11259523.56055Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; etcNo0.7
60 additional targets not listed, 67 total
Raijin starting to come back to inner uninhabited recaptures, but still with three inhabited this week.

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Calculating Hadad
Read 64 control systems and 931 targets.
Total connected: 63
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-324.11759116


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Omumba13.59922Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2; Montioch;Yes0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-1217.57122Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-2; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No-0.1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-218.16433Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;No-0.9
Muruidooges18.36711Montioch;Yes0.6
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-018.84133Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No-0.7
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-519.63211Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;No-0.7
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2921.25444Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; etcNo-0.4
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-521.48211Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No-0.6
13 additional targets not listed, 21 total
Omumba comes off cooldown - in the same week as Njorog, too - which will make for a tough defensive week.



Code: 
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4:1
Trianguli Sector CA-A c22:1
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1:1
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12:1
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-1:1
-- Leigong
HIP 9643:1
-- Indra
63 Tauri:1
71 Tauri:1
HIP 19934:1
HIP 20916:1
HIP 20577:1
-- Oya
Cephei Sector WO-A b3:1
Liu Huang:1
Cephei Sector AF-A c9:1
Kanus:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1:1
Vaipacnali:1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2:1
HIP 19198:1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5:1
-- Raijin
Kaurukat:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4:1
Chnemine:1
Chakma:1
HIP 112475:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14:1
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1:1
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Having looked at the data a bit more the following pattern seems to apply:
- all attacks are legitimate under NAF or the top classic target (having ruled out any Control which would already have attacked already under NAF to calculate that)
- the attack starts in NAF mode but will switch modes if particular conditions are met (which may not be immediate) and it may switch back to NAF mode again after a classic attack or two.
- if a classic attack occurs, the next NAF attack won't consider controls inwards of that control even if they haven't attacked yet (the "last control" pointer is preserved?), though it is possible to stay in classic mode for more than one attack and move the pointer backwards that way
- the fifth attack can never exceed 20 LY range (and will not occur if it would have to); if this is a NAF attack and the first control fails entirely, it stops rather than checking the next one (obviously in classic mode if the first one fails all subsequent ones will, but NAF seems to inherit this assumption)

What I can't find from the current sample is an explanation for when mode switches occur which doesn't essentially become "if the week number is 37" at points. The particular things which are hard to explain:
- why did Daruwach attack HIP 3006 in week 38 but ZE-A c8 in week 34, when it could apparently choose between either both times?
- why did Sambaho not attack HIP 3006 in weeks 35 or 37 (in favour of HIP 4041 in week 35, no attack at all in week 37)
- week 40 can only be explained if attacks 3 and 4 both occurred in classic mode; most other weeks which require a switch to classic for an explanation require an immediate return to NAF afterwards
- conversely, week 31 must have had no switching at all

These can all be "explained" by having the attack mode switch over and back at the right points in those weeks, but I'm yet to find a reasonable explanation for why: it's easy enough to overfit an explanation which explains the existing weeks but has virtually no predictive power in future; equally this could all be a consequence of some much simpler underlying rule - I wonder if there's some combination of control and target distance which helps here.
 

CMDR Vulkarius

CMDR Vulkarius
The week number thing is where I was going, start by making lookups to get it right then see after if any patterns fall out.
Haven't looked at switching multiple times yet though - my lookup at the moment assumes there are 0 or more standard then a permanent switch to NAF (+ inhab priority).
Going with X standard attacks and Y lost attacks the lookup numbers ended up like this (bonus foreshadowing as well)-
JavaScript: 
const lookup =
{
    '28':[4, 1], // Not sure if Daruwach or HIP 10778
    '29':[4, 1], // Not sure if Daruwach or HIP 10778
    '30':[0, 1], // 1 miss matches the pattern despite only 1 target
    '31':[4, 0], // NAF matches standard, but need Daruwach not 1st
    '32':[2, 1], // NAF matches standard for 2 attacks
    '33':[0, 1],
    '34':[3, 0], // Daruwach 3rd (Standard)
    '35':[2, 1],
    '36':[1, 1], // Daruwach 1st (Standard)
    '37':[2, 1],
    '38':[0, 0], // Daruwach 5th (NAF)
    '39':[0, 1],
    '40':[3, 1],
};
So [0, 0] means straight to NAF and all 5 hits, [2, 1] means 2 standard + 2 NAF, etc.
Those aren't unique to make the attacks work - I went with "assume the most standard attacks which keeps it working".

That made it a close match except Daruwach doing Daruwach things.
I figured it would be best not to guess why and just codify a Daruwach rule for now, see if it holds (interesting correlation with NOCs but ignore that for now).
A sort of working rule seems to be "on reaching a Daruwach target and it has others possible, replace with the last in the list of others".
List order there actually matches whether we're in standard or NAF at the time of triggering the rule - actually that IS a form of switching back and forth but limited to Daruwach's vision.

Next pattern I saw after setting that mapping was how Daruwach cycles are also largely 5 hit cycles.
36 is the oddball there, 4 hits despite Daruwach being involved.
Working in the number of hits the rules are like-
Oya just loses a hit (for some reason, regardless of Daruwach)
On reaching a Daruwach target and it has others possible, unlose a hit if it wasn't first, then replace with the last in the list of others

That makes it work all the way from 28-40 and I can drop the hits lookup as well, only uses the switch lookup (1st number).
Haven't checked 27, but I noticed it would be mostly useless to do so - INTRA doesn't have target info that far back (yet).
Even 28 and 29 are kinda questionable with exactly what hit what, fairly sure its version of events is wrong.
The targets are right but different rules would imply different used attackers and could fix/break something with alternative history.

Next look at it will be to see if anything can generate that 4, 4, 0, 4, 2, 0, 3... sequence :D
 

CMDR Vulkarius

CMDR Vulkarius
About as close as that'll get without time to find better patterns (rules aren't very clean either)-
oya_28_41.png


Oya script-
Lose a hit
Begin standard
If a Daruwach target has others possible, replace with the first in the list of others + unlose a hit if the new target is unpop
If standard and the next 2 targets have the same inhab attacker or form a NOC, switch to NAF

It isn't clear if the Daruwach sublist should be NAF after switching to NAF, the only example works both ways.
The Daruwach rule also needs to be before the switch rule, and the unpop extra hit may suggest a budget difference.

The misses aren't easy to fix with the present info-
33 needs to switch immediately but doesn't, unless there's something special about HIP 21386 (that actually fixes 33 without changing others).
35 switches immediately but shouldn't, need a couple standard hits before that.

There has to be some more things we're not seeing/using, can't think what.
We're looking at the distances, coords, cube layer, sector ID...
Wouldn't mind other attribute ideas to check for patterns!
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Another one which mostly works (for 30 onwards):
- start with NAF (inhabited priority), but take the first attack as a baseline for both control and target distance.
- if the control distance gets more than 4 LY over the baseline control distance, switch to standard mode for the remaining attacks with a range limit of 20 LY (this largely explains the behaviour in WO-A b3 weeks as well as helping in some other cases)
- 5th attack can't be over 20 LY even if still in NAF, stop rather than looking further if it would be

Again, gets as far as most of the cases where it doesn't work (week 35 is particularly bad, as is usual for NAF-first approaches) being one-offs and it's hard to find additional rules which solve multiple of them without also breaking things in other weeks.

(For this week it predicts the same Gliese 9035, AV-Y b6, Luggerates, AV-Y b0 set as both the basic NAF model and your latest model, but is more definite on there only being 4 than basic NAF would be)
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
So here's the prediction board for this week - relatively little variation between the new models, but a rare case of them being almost completely disjoint from the classic model.
TargetClassicalBasic NAFShell NAFINIV and 4LY Switch NAF
Cephei Sector AV-Y b21
HIP 40412
HIP 300635
Lahua4
Muchihiks
BD+77 845
Gliese 9035111
HIP 21386
Cephei Sector AF-A c215
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6222
Luggerates444
Cephei Sector CV-Y b1
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2
Bumbo
Cephei Sector AV-Y b0333
Aowicha
HIP 2422
Poqomathi
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6
Gliese 3050



For a bit of variation, I thought I'd look at this result from Hadad way back on 11 May (week 23, I think?), shortly after Update 15
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Yan Zangata22.3822Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10 (17.37); HIP 30158;Yes1
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-2232.8211Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4 (31.44);No-0.7
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-732.8211Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4 (30.89);No0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-832.8411Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2 (30.37);No-0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-232.8611Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0 (31.94);No-0.4
L2 Puppis33.0755Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8 (25.27); Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7; etcNo-0.1
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-133.1022Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79 (29.74); Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;No-0.8
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-333.1111Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0 (26.73);No0.3
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-533.1911Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3 (28.63);No0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-633.2222Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5 (26.55); Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2;No-1
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-233.2744HIP 29217 (25.12); Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4; etcNo-0.6
Col 285 Sector KL-D b13-733.4622Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1 (26.82); HIP 32718;No-0
I've added to the table the distance of the nearest usable control - and interestingly, the attackers appear to be the four nearest controls to Hadad at the time, with the fifth OR-B b14-0 => IB-N c7-3 attack being skipped.


We had a similar incident at Thor in week 27 (8 June) which was also a poor week for the classic model in general
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73 Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-7542.66222HIP 20807 (37.43); Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3;No0.1
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-042.74411Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-12 (41.95);No-0.2
Col 285 Sector DF-Q c5-442.75211Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-4 (36.70);No-0
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1542.88511Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3 (39.49);No-0.3
Col 285 Sector IK-H b10-143.04022Col 285 Sector IK-H b10-0 (41.38); HIP 18271;No-0.5
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-443.66511Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3 (41.50);No0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-243.80122HIP 16798 (39.53); Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1;No-0.4
Gliese 203244.14411Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3 (40.20);No0.6
HIP 22159 Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-1744.43222Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3 (37.90); Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;No0.2
28 Tau-7 Eridani44.73611HIP 18271 (41.46);No-0.3
Synuefe QO-Q c21-544.85411Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-0 (40.04);No-0.7
HIP 2253844.90222Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3 (39.28); Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;No0.5
Synuefe QO-Q c21-145.23011Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-2 (37.41);No-0.7
Col 285 Sector OL-F b11-245.30111Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1 (42.12);No-0.6
HIP 2263245.36411Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4 (39.54);No0.4
Hyades Sector SI-T c3-446.10922Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5 (40.03); Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1;No0.4
Col 285 Sector DZ-H b10-146.44611Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1 (42.60);No0.2
Again, the four closest attackers move - and then a fifth attack from FU-H b10-3 to FU-H b10-4 which is neither the next on the NAF list or the next on the classic list, but which intriguingly does form part of a soft pair of attackers as FU-H b10-3 could also have attacked the spared OC-V d2-73 that HIP 20807 moved out from.

So it seems like our two strangest moves (before Oya started up, anyway) can also be fitted reasonably closely to a NAF model ... though we're still no closer to recognising what might trigger a Maelstrom to act this way in any particular week. Still, it'll be interesting if there is just one thing going on which explains all the weirdness since that first dropped Alert in Hadad week 21.
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Hmm, thinking aloud on that Thor incident, it is the case that every week where there's been a 5th attack, that attack, assuming NAF ordering, has been to a system which was passed over by an earlier NAF attacker. That would explain why the 5th attacker is always Daruwach (it could be others in theory, but Daruwach overlaps targets with a lot of nearer controls), why it picks the target it did, and would mean that we should expect a 5th attack on HIP 3006 this week.

So a model that works in outline as:
- start in classic
- on [condition], which is checked before the next attack takes place, switch to inhabited-bias NAF rather than make the next classic attack, which costs an attack (the skipped classic attack might get made anyway later under NAF, and that's fine)
- get that attack back if it can be used to backtrack on an earlier (implicitly NAF, because classic attackers hit the closest target anyway) attacker
could potentially explain not only Oya but some of the earlier weirdness at Hadad and Thor (and maybe even Indra!) if we can find the right thing to go in [condition]

Looking at the Oya weeks with that in mind, ranges are the classic attacks the condition is met before - in some weeks there's a bit of flexibility:
  • 30: 1 only (HIP 7338 to DQ-Y b2)
  • 31: 1-4 (Chernobo to ZZ-Y b3 ; Ardhri to HIP 4041 ; Sambaho to HIP 3006 ; HIP 8525 to DQ-Y b2)
  • 32: 1-3 (AV-Y b3 to AV-Y b2 ; Tougeir to Lahua ; HIP 8525 to DQ-Y b2)
  • 33: 1 only (BV-Y b2 to HIP 21386)
  • 34: 3 only (Daruwach to HIP 3006) and not (WO-A b3 to WO-A b4 ; AF-A c9 to DQ-Y b1)
  • 35: 3 only (Tougeir to Lahua) and not (Ardhri to AV-Y b2 ; Sambaho to HIP 4041)
  • 36: 1 only (Daruwach to HIP 3006)
  • 37: 3 only (Sambaho to HIP 3006) and not (WO-A b3 to WO-A b4; HIP 13179 to DQ-Y b1)
  • 38: 1 only (Daruwach to HIP 3006)
  • 39: 1 only (Tougeir to Lahua)
  • 40: 4 only (AV-Y b3 to AV-Y b2) and not (WO-A b3 to WO-A b4; Liu Huang to BV-Y b2; AF-A c9 to DQ-Y b1)
So without trying to find the condition itself yet, just using these as precedents, that suggests:
  • Ardhri to AV-Y b2: this is on one of the "definitely not" lists, so should proceed classically
  • Sambaho to HIP 4041: this is also on a "definitely not" list, so should proceed classically
  • Daruwach to HIP 3006: pretty much anything to HIP 3006 seems to trigger a switch, so this won't happen (yet)
  • First NAF target is HIP 10778 to Gliese 9035
  • Second NAF target is - since we've used Ardhri and Sambaho already - AV-Y b3 to AV-Y b0
  • We don't have a backtracker possible, so no 5th attack
Trying to find a condition for this actually works surprisingly easily for weeks 30-39 - if the target is HIP 3006 or further out, it meets the condition, if it's closer (HIP 4041) it doesn't. Then, in week 40, that stops working - AV-Y b2 has to be the place the condition is met. But a simple modification fixes it: in weeks 30-37, the furthest control was HIP 7338 at 18.85 LY (so HIP 3006 outside, HIP 4041 inside). In week 38 it was recaptured, and the new nearest control is Akbakara at 18.17 (so AV-Y b2 and HIP 4041 are now outside).

So that suggests an even more straightforward condition (which might even work for the other odd weeks too, I haven't checked): if the next classic target is further out than the furthest control, switch to (inhabited) NAF mode. With the HIP 7338 recapture, that means that AV-Y b2 is now outside for week 41, so instead we're going to go to NAF mode straight away, and as Sambaho skipped HIP 3006, Daruwach can go back and get it for a 5th attack

I really like this theory: it's relatively simple, unless I've made a typo it explains every single week at Oya since 30 and with most Maelstroms having some outer controls leftover from their earlier rapid expansion phase it even explains why they generally don't (though I'd not be surprised if there's something else in play), and it's potentially strategically valuable behaviour for the Thargoids on both attack and defence [1]. It therefore won't be a complete surprise if Thursday's result is nothing like it :)

...going back to Hadad weeks 21-23, the "allergy" to MR-M c7-22 now makes sense: it's at 32.82 LY, and with the first wave of INIV attacks distorting its perimeter badly out of spherical, that pushed outside the 32.48 LY line set by RN-T d3-84.

...and likewise at Thor, the weirdness started as it tried to push past Hyades NM-M b7-1 (42.60) and then it went berserk when INIV shredded its mid-range controls so that it could briefly only attack past that.

...it would explain why heavy counterattacks sometimes - but not always - trigger it. And ... oh my. Taranis has just lost Hyades Sector CV-O b6-5 bringing its radius down from 26.86 to 22.11 LY. Its fifth attack this week is planned for 22.760 LY. If this theory is correct, Taranis will lose its 5th attack this week as it switches to NAF after the first four but obviously can't backtrack to save it. Now that's a wildcard prediction!


So with that here's the updated prediction board for this week - quite a few options here

TargetClassicalBasic NAFShell NAF, Outside NAFINIV and 4LY Switch NAFPrecedentist Switchover
Cephei Sector AV-Y b211
HIP 404122
HIP 300635
Lahua4
Muchihiks
BD+77 845
Gliese 90351113
HIP 21386
Cephei Sector AF-A c21(5)
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6222
Luggerates444
Cephei Sector CV-Y b1
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2
Bumbo
Cephei Sector AV-Y b03334
Aowicha
HIP 2422
Poqomathi
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6
Gliese 3050



[1] From a lore perspective, I've been laughing at Aegis for having to have Seo Jin-Ae explain to them that as an advanced spacefaring species the Thargoids are likely to understand the concepts of "inside" and "outside" ... from a Galnet article published on 4 May, just one week after Hadad started behaving oddly with its apparent allergy to MR-M c7-22. So if this is what I've been hitting my head on ever since, well played Frontier.
 

CMDR Vulkarius

CMDR Vulkarius
And there I was working on some 3D stuff...
Catching up a bit, I tried to code what I think that "reinforce and reach" idea is.
I wasn't sure about "backtrack on an earlier attacker", at the moment it records each standard attacker just before the radius test then checks for matches later in NAF.
That scheme should be the one shown at https://dev.iniv.space/schemes/

It has a few bumps there where the script could be wrong, perhaps check a couple for now-
Cycle 38, Ardhri vs AV-Y b2 is outside so NAF, Ardhri vs AV-Y b6 so 5 hits, but what makes Daruwach hit 3006 instead of ZE-A c8?
Cycle 39, Tougeir vs Lahua outside, Tougeir vs Jeng so should be 5 hits, but what made it only hit 4?
I know a few others don't match but I think 38 and 39 probably cover the fix it needs.
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Cycle 38: Sambaho has the option to go for HIP 3006 but doesn't (it hits Luggerates as a NAF attack), so HIP 3006 is on the candidate list for the 5th. None of the ones which went earlier could reach ZE-A c8, so it's not available for Daruwach to hit.

Cycle 39: could have been 5 hits if anything else could hit Lahua, but nothing can so it doesn't get to use the 5th. It's not just having spare targets at all, it's having a control which can specifically go for them

Cycle 34 might also be worth a look:
- WO-A b3 hits WO-A b4 (classic)
- AF-A c9 hits DQ-Y b1 (classic)
- Daruwach tries to hit HIP 3006 but it's "outside" so it cancels the attack (looking at other weeks, this should not add HIP 3006 to the skipover list) and Oya switches to NAF
- HIP 10778 hits Gliese 9035 and adds ZE-A c8 to the skipped over list
- Kanus hits FB-X b1-1
- AV-Y b3 is the 5th attacker so needs to hit a skipped over target, it can't
- Daruwach is a later possibility for the 5th attacker, and can hit ZE-A c8, so it does.

(This theory doesn't explain Indra, though)
 

CMDR Vulkarius

CMDR Vulkarius
Looking really good now, the "reach and reinforce" is well spotted!
Updated scheme view at https://dev.iniv.space/schemes/
It has one blip at Thor 40 where JA-G b11-3 exceeds LV-F b11-0 but I think that's because the script can't see controls if they aren't attacking.
Quick database query shows KL-E b12-5 further out - that fixes Thor 40 but I'll see if I can add the actual max radius (or controls list) to the data files, see if everything still works.
Thor 28 blip is definitely due to the warning you can see here- https://dev.iniv.space/targets/28#M-Thor
Indra blips seem likely to be a long ago reach being the same as reinforce but causing wrong attackers to be logged.

Rule specifics-
To find the radius I had to allow ineligible entries, so would be weird if the real rule wasn't just to check all controls as above (result pending)
It has to log the standard attackers before reaching NAF because the other targets of a standard attacker need to stay off the escapee list (that way at least) - alternative is to cull the same attacker entries during standard (painful for iteration though)
That lets it allow used attackers in the NAF scan just for the limited purpose of logging escapees but with an entry skip if it was used during standard.
From there it's just a case of continuing while at zero budget if escapees are still being logged.
First one to hit an escapee gets a free attack, burns the list and continues with pure NAF if it can.

JavaScript: 
function reinf(targets, cmd)
{
    // Establish the radius
    var control_radius = 0;
    // Actually need to allow ineligible entries here so we get the full radius
    for (var tgt of targets) if (!tgt.evict && tgt.a.dist > control_radius) control_radius = tgt.a.dist;
    
    
    // Standard stage
    // Track the attackers used here because they don't count for escapees later
    var std_attacker = [];
    for (var tgt of targets)
    {
        if (!target_ok(tgt)) continue;
        
        // Radius check
        if (tgt.b.dist <= control_radius)
        {
            std_attacker.push(tgt.a.addr);
            if (cmd.attack(tgt)) return;
        }
        else break;
        
    }
    
    
    // NAF stage
    var escapees = [];
    cmd.miss();
    naf_sort(targets, true);
    for (var tgt of targets)
    {
        // Allow used attackers so that we log their escapees...
        if (!tgt.elig || tgt.evict || tgt.b.used) continue;
        // ...but not standard attackers
        if (std_attacker.includes(tgt.a.addr)) continue;
        
        if (escapees != null)
        {
            if (tgt.a.used)
            {
                // Attacker used, log one escapee
                if (!tgt.b.used && !escapees.includes(tgt.b.addr)) escapees.push(tgt.b.addr);
            }
            else
            {
                // Attacker available, get a free attack if it was an escapee (then stop recording/using escapees)
                if (escapees.includes(tgt.b.addr))
                {
                    escapees = null;
                    cmd.unmiss();
                    if (cmd.attack(tgt)) return; else continue;
                }
                
                // Pre check the budget because we need to continue at zero to find more escapees
                if (!cmd.nomore()) cmd.attack(tgt);
            }
            
        }
        else
        {
            // Pure NAF now
            if (cmd.attack(tgt)) return;
        }
        
    }
}
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Yes, surely it must be all controls, not just ones able to attack this week, that establish the switchover distance.

Many thanks for the implementation and verification, and also for keeping on with the "standard -> NAF" approach at a time when I was thinking that "surely NAF -> standard must work better, lots of these Oya weeks only work if all attacks are NAF" - that was leading me down all sorts of dead ends.



Indra remains a mystery, though.
- it's most distant control was (until this week!) Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1 at 29.81 LY so well beyond any other attack placements (the two in question are at ~26LY) and no attack since that was placed in January has got even near that far out again.
- there were still five attacks, whereas NAF switchover after the fourth attack completes should always cause the fifth attack to be lost
- Indra is extremely dense, so any individual control state being misrecorded shouldn't stop it attacking. DQ-Y had four possible attackers and was on the other side of the Titan to most of the other placements.
- it recurred three weeks later (i.e. cycling round to the same Alert availability) exactly the same without DQ-Y being attacked in the meantime, which should rule out any cooldown misrecording for the second time even if not the first

The only thing I can think of to keep it within this theory is:
- HIP 21380 is close enough to some of the other attacked targets to share attackers, so if that wasn't the 5th attack but an earlier NAF one, one of the others could have become the 5th attack under the attacker substitution rules
- if there is some other trigger which can also enable NAF mode, that was met at Indra in (identical) cycles 28 and 31 but generally no other time (except for some cycles where it wouldn't make a difference) and switched to NAF at an earlier stage, Indra is perhaps dense enough that the difference between NAF and classic might sometimes be quite thin.
An arbitrary proxy rule of "if Indra and week 31 and attack number = N, switch" might at least narrow down whether any of those are plausible. I might do a retrospective run on that if this theory works this week and it therefore seems worth modifying the Narwhal code to predict it.
 

CMDR Vulkarius

CMDR Vulkarius
One more update for now, "R/R" with the real radius available- https://dev.iniv.space/schemes/
Source bundle- https://dev.iniv.space/schemes/schemes.zip
Looks like it wants to attack 3006, 9035, AV-Y b6, Luggerates, AV-Y b0.
It agrees at Taranis as well, only 4 this time!

I filtered ineligible entries out of the data now that it's over the target (still has evicted entries though).
I can confirm a point of minutia - evicted systems are not part of the radius / it breaks a few cases if they are.
Unconsidered/unconfirmed at the moment is whether the radius counts alert/invasion turning into new control systems, not that we've had those for a while.
INTRA has those as part of a "roll to new cycle" query but not generally available in readouts for now.

I suppose the next look ought to be to build the history further back :D
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
CMDR Vulkarius said:
Unconsidered/unconfirmed at the moment is whether the radius counts alert/invasion turning into new control systems, not that we've had those for a while.
Click to expand...
I think the only example we have of that is Thor 15 June where the new DF-Q c5-4 control falls between the two placed alerts, but three more new controls fall outside both of them.

If new ones don't count, the two Thor Alerts that week should have been in NAF mode, if new ones do count they should have been in classic mode.
Looking at the systems FU-H b10-2 could have attacked (and assuming that the attack at OC-V d2-73 was carried out by another control which after the chaos of the previous week had been mistakenly marked offline) it looks like these attacks did happen in classic mode, and therefore new controls this cycle do count as part of the radius calculation [1].

Proving that further would probably require building the history back to 1 June (or earlier), then rolling forward again to make sure that the active control lists for the 8 June and 15 June cycles were correct, so that we actually find out where the d2-73 attack did come from.

[1] Which is the more intuitive option: systems can be attacked immediately after coming off Recovery if other cooldown windows allow it, so "resolve previous cycle entirely before planning new attacks" is simpler to explain that.
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
End of cycle updates
Taranis
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b614.50911Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0; No0.6
Njorog14.69911HIP 25654; Yes-0
Trianguli Sector CA-A c1418.35111Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; No0.9
Hyades Sector KH-L b8-022.76011Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2;No0.3
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-722.90333Ixbalan; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;No-0.8
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-1122.99111Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3;No-1
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-523.21811Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;No-0.9
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-8225.60311Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;No-0.7
This is of course the conventional prediction - if the "outside control" theory is correct, only the first three will be hit, then Ixbalan will start a NAF attack and one of its neighbours will backtrack on it for a fifth. Reading by hand I think that means Hyades PN-T c3-8 (not shown) gets hit by Ixbalan and then either PN-T c3-7 or PN-T c3-5 as the backtrack (depending on how backtracks are prioritised; we've never had a case of more than one option at Oya) - 5 as the further out seems more likely.

Leigong
Prediction unchanged after recaptures, reminder that it could be 2-6 rather than 1-5 depending on the direct capabilities of Leigong itself.

Indra and Raijin
Down some controls, but no material change to this week's prediction.

Cocijo
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1518.40933Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-96; Mapon; Mahlina; No0.8
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1619.20511Mapon;No1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-520.30655Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; etcNo0
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-420.30955Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; etcNo0.4
Vocovii23.67122Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Mahlina;Yes0.5
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-224.32922Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;No0.5
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-524.86411HIP 38235;No-0.5
Paitra24.88033Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;Yes0.7
No changes in the top 5 but the first reserve is now different

Thor
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-021.77655Chanyaya; HIP 19894; Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14; etcNo0.4
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-9622.00077Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; etcNo0.2
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-822.75266Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6; etcNo0.1
Contained nicely
 
Last edited:

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
So:
- Titans cannot attack directly, targets 2-6 at Leigong correct on that basis
- inside/outside model predicts Oya 100% correctly
- inside/outside model correctly predicts Taranis will switch but not quite right on the targeting
- other Maelstroms continue on 5 nearest as expected

At Taranis, it looks like Ixbalan only stretched as far as PN-T c3-5, and then the backtrack was obviously to PN-T c3-7 (presumably from DQ-O b6-3)
 

CMDR Vulkarius

CMDR Vulkarius
So, what's going on at Taranis...
I have the radius control as CV-O b6-3 at 21.381281.
After 3 attacks it looks like FB-N b7-2 can see KH-L b8-0 at 22.760128, switch to NAF.
It thinks Ixbalan then hits PN-T c3-8 and logs PN-T c3-5 + PN-T c3-7.
No more budget now so FB-N b7-2 can't hit KH-L b8-0 and BV-O b6-3 can't hit GW-W d1-82.
Finally DQ-O b6-3 can see the logged PN-T c3-5 so that's the free attack.

Something has slipped somewhere there, first question is why Ixbalan missed PN-T c3-8!
Without that entry it looks like the prediction would have worked - instead it's acting like Ixbalan had no budget for c3-8 but logged 5 and 7, same with 2 more skips, then finally 5 and 7 are hit by DQ-O b6-3 and GW-W d1-99.
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
A few other options:
- Ixbalan didn't move at all. DQ-O gets 5 and logs 7, GW-W gets 7. Is it plausible that Ixbalan was offline and we've carried (harmless due to cross-connectivity) errors forwards a while from earlier without noticing? ... checking, no: all its neighbours are either long-standing controls or the PN-T free set being considered. PN-T c3-8 hasn't been alerted since July so I think we can rule out data entry errors for this stage.
- Ixbalan can't do 8 for some reason, gets 5 as the next best and logs 7 instead; DQ-O (probably over GW-W, but maybe we can get more out of it this week) gets 7.

A note here: while HIP 8525 and 7338 going for Muncheim and Poqomathi in week 32 is most obviously explained by a preference for inhabited systems, that's another case we've got of non-5th attackers pulling back slightly from their furthest possible targets, so possibly it's not "attacks furthest" but "attacks further" and the decision puts Ixbalan short of 8 in this sort of multi-target environment. Though Tougeir has quite happily gone for Jeng as 4th on its list many times...
 

CMDR Vulkarius

CMDR Vulkarius
Within the scheme test, that Muncheim/Poqomathi for Oya 32 is actually the only case fixed by putting inhab first / broken by putting distance first.
Definitely ripe for alternative ideas!
I tried "reach attacks increase the radius instead" and "increasing the radius costs budget", not quite working yet.
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Narwhal Nose report generated 14 September

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

I haven't incorporated the new algorithm yet but I've added a few extra notes to the generation to hopefully make it easier to do manual calculations, which I'll be doing for Oya and Taranis. I'll highlight expected changes manually on those charts.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 35 control systems and 959 targets.
Total connected: 30
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-411.71637476
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-014.80237655
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b016.57010439
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-118.06744634
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-118.57046862
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-1220.98730085


Furthest Control: 21.381 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-315.47688Hupang; Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2; Hyades Sector FB-N b7-4; etcNo0.4
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-517.17211Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1; No-0.2
HIP 2567917.40211Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2;Yes0.4
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-8717.73311Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4 (10.011 LY); No-0.3
HIP 2371618.43011Trianguli Sector CA-A c22;Yes0.9
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-421.12911Hyades Sector HW-M b7-4; No0.7
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-8822.10722{14.802} Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0; {18.570} Hyades Sector HW-M b7-1 (10.021 LY); No0.3
Hyades Sector KH-L b8-022.76011{16.214} Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2;No0.3
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-1122.99121.3{18.137} Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; {20.987} Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; No-1
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-823.97210.3{15.649} Ixbalan;No-0.7
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-8225.60311{17.266} Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;No-0.7
Hyades Sector CV-O b6-629.62411{20.987} Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; No-1
No further targets possible
This week should proceed conventionally by default, though there is some possibility for further recaptures to affect this - recapturing CV-O b6-3 would put KR-W b1-4 outside the next Control, then with GW-W d1-87's attack from BV-O b6-4 being an unlikely over-range one, that should lose the Alert. Alternatively a successful protection of either HIP system would move GW-W d1-88 into fifth place and lose the Alert that way. (Doing both might allow backtrack recovery - if there's heavy action at Taranis, it'll need a closer look). With the uncertainty about exactly what attacked last week, Ixbalan and DQ-O b6-3 are included as low-certainty possibilities but it's unlikely that they'll get chance to do anything anyway.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 35 control systems and 959 targets.
Total connected: 31
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hyades Sector GR-W d1-9316.95933786
Hyades Sector GH-M b7-119.61536885
Hyades Sector GH-M b7-219.92191789
Ceti Sector BQ-Y b430.13371891
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-431.15324083


Furthest Control: 31.153 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-220.52055Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0; HIP 10118; Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3; etcNo-0.2
HIP 1016820.85833Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1 (9.958 LY); Hyades Sector GH-M b7-1; Hyades Sector GH-M b7-2; No-0.7
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-9320.92522Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-2; Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94;No0.9
Pathamon22.06411Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56;Yes0.5
Hyades Sector RO-R c4-2023.90122Hyades Sector JN-K b8-3; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-19; No0
HIP 1041424.06922Hyades Sector GH-M b7-1; Hyades Sector GH-M b7-2; No-0.7
Jementi25.00711Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19;Yes0.9
HIP 669425.10511Arietis Sector MX-U c2-19; No0.1
3 additional targets not listed, 11 total
Leigong's outer three controls are now all Barnacles, so this should proceed by the numbers. Leigong itself has been removed from the attack list thanks to the discovery of Operation Redacted.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 116 control systems and 878 targets.
Total connected: 117

Furthest Control: 27.394 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-320.11544HIP 19098; Obamumbo; Arietis Sector LM-V b2-5; etcNo0.1
HIP 1915721.65011Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;Yes-0.6
HIP 2089021.8895564 Tauri (10.013 LY); HIP 20577; HIP 20679; etcYes0.9
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-122.11211HIP 20480;No0.7
HIP 2061622.16833HIP 20397; 79 b Tauri; HR 1358; Yes0.8
Arietis Sector NH-V b2-022.47211Obamumbo;No-0.2
HIP 2052722.54066Hyadum I; 71 Tauri; HIP 20916; etcYes0.9
HIP 1978125.57011HR 1358; Yes0.9
88 additional targets not listed, 96 total
Recaptures at Indra are starting to come through and break up its previous 5-of-5 inhabited attacks a bit more.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 27 control systems and 967 targets.
Total connected: 25
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Tougeir16.22455941
Liu Huang17.75687587
Akbakara18.17006789


Furthest Control: 18.170 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
HIP 733818.85322{12.495} Kanus; {17.920} HIP 8525;Yes0.7
Lahua19.36311{16.225} Tougeir; Yes0.9
Muchihiks19.56110.2{16.225} Tougeir; Yes0.9
BD+77 8420.16611{17.920} HIP 8525;Yes0.9
HIP 2138620.50922{17.757} Liu Huang; {18.170} Akbakara; No0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c2120.66922{15.212} HIP 13179; {15.681} Cephei Sector AF-A c9;No0.8
Cephei Sector AF-A c2221.18843.2{12.692} Niu Yun (9.908 LY); {13.593} Warnones; {15.212} HIP 13179; {15.681} Cephei Sector AF-A c9;No0.5
Cephei Sector CV-Y b122.03910.2{16.225} Tougeir; No0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b222.14910.2{17.920} HIP 8525;No0.5
Bumbo22.41610.2{17.920} HIP 8525; Yes0.9
Jeng23.03810.2{16.225} Tougeir; Yes0.5
HIP 242224.00910.2{17.920} HIP 8525; Yes0.5
HIP 1111124.11821.2{15.212} HIP 13179; {15.681} Cephei Sector AF-A c9;Yes0.6
Poqomathi24.13610.2{17.920} HIP 8525; Yes0.6
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b624.95310.2{17.920} HIP 8525;No0.9
Gliese 305025.57910.2{17.920} HIP 8525;No0.6
No further targets possible
Everything is outside, so this is going to be a purely NAF week. So:
- switch mode, lose attack
- Kanus attacks HIP 7338 now it's recovered
- Niu Yun attacks AF-A c22
- HIP 13179 attacks HIP 11111 (and marks AF-A c21 for backtracking)
- AF-A c9 attacks AF-A c21 anyway as attack 4
- I think that wastes the backtrack option, and so Tougeir won't attack Jeng (or anywhere else), but I'm not 100% sure on this and we'll learn something either way.
- Liu Huang to HIP 21386 is the reserve should a fifth attack be possible but the Tougeir recapture plans be ready this week

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 77 control systems and 916 targets.
Total connected: 76
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-10623.03364557
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-224.23140798


Furthest Control: 28.116 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-620.03411Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;No1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1020.47611Kurumanit;No0.9
HIP 3871820.76511Mahlina; No0.9
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-821.24744Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; etcNo0
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-023.09011Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;No0.5
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-6923.67222Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;Yes0.1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-124.15711Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; No0.9
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-224.20922HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2;No-0.3
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-224.32911Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;No0.5
14 additional targets not listed, 23 total
Five uninhabited systems provide a bit of respite

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 62 control systems and 933 targets.
Total connected: 54
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Rajuarpai11.4695589
Chanyaya16.10879151
HIP 1989416.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1417.71585625
HIP 2002419.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-121.81126877
HIP 1885724.61621433
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1726.27731094
Col 285 Sector KL-E b12-531.01420416


Furthest Control: 31.014 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
HIP 1960020.31611Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1;No-0.1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-221.23911Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-0;No-0.5
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-422.21722Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;No0.6
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-022.79622Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; HIP 18857; No-0.2
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-324.09411Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;No0.5
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-524.84222Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14; HIP 20024; No0.3
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-133.39022{24.952} HIP 18705; {27.307} Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-4;No-0.2
No further targets possible
Some chances here to lose Thor an attack or two; KV-F b11-1 is outside and so only needs guarding itself if at least three of the ones above are protected. Thor doesn't have any Matrix sites past 22.65 LY so in the slightly longer term it may be shrunk to the point where it needs to mode-switch more often.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 106 control systems and 886 targets.
Total connected: 107

Furthest Control: 27.097 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Nu Guang19.33011Snoqui;Yes0.9
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-621.18822HIP 115162; Nibelaako; No0
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-021.21422Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535;No0.8
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-122.02811Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;No0.5
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-422.34944Sholintet; Chinas; Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13; etcNo-0.1
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-023.21899Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; etcNo0.3
Ixbaksha23.24799Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; etcYes0.5
HIP 11259523.56044HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etcNo0.7
107 additional targets not listed, 115 total
As at Indra, the removal of uninhabited controls is now paying off in breaking up the attacks on inhabited systems. Raijin has an outer Matrix at 23.83 so is probably going to be hard to set up for losing attacks through mode switches.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 63 control systems and 930 targets.
Total connected: 63

Furthest Control: 27.145 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
HR 220415.46211Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0;Yes0.6
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-218.31033Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1; Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;No-0.7
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-519.63211Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;No-0.7
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-3120.04666Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; HIP 31648; etcNo-0
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-820.60711Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;No-0.9
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-320.78377HIP 31648; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etcNo0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2921.25444Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; etcNo-0.4
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-521.48222Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No-0.6
16 additional targets not listed, 24 total
All normal here too.



Code: 
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0:1
HIP 25654:1
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85:1
Ixbalan:0.7
Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3:0.7
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99:0.3
-- Leigong
HIP 9180:1
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1:1
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0:1
HIP 7277:1
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3:1
-- Indra
86 Rho Tauri:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 20419:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4:1
HIP 22496:1
-- Oya
Ardhri:1
Sambaho:1
HIP 10778:1
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3:1
Daruwach:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-96:1
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17:1
-- Thor
Chanyaya:1
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2:1
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18:1
-- Raijin
Marindhs:1
Mora:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78:1
Montioch:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7:1
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
End of cycle updates:

Taranis
Furthest Control: 21.381 LY
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-315.47688Hupang; Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2; Hyades Sector FB-N b7-4; etcNo0.4
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-517.17211Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1; No-0.2
HIP 2567917.40211Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2;Yes0.4
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-8717.73311Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4 (10.011 LY); No-0.3
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-421.12911Hyades Sector HW-M b7-4; No0.7
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-8822.10722{14.802} Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0; {18.570} Hyades Sector HW-M b7-1 (10.021 LY); No0.3
Hyades Sector KH-L b8-022.76011{16.214} Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2;No0.3
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-1122.99121.3{18.137} Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; {20.987} Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; No-1
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-823.97210.3{15.649} Ixbalan;No-0.7
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-8225.60311{17.266} Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3;No-0.7
Hyades Sector CV-O b6-629.62411{20.987} Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12; No-1
HIP 23716 is kept safe for another week, Taranis still gets to place its five Alerts inside this time

Leigong
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-220.52055Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0; HIP 10118; Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3; etcNo-0.2
HIP 1016820.85811Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1 (9.958 LY);No-0.7
Hyades Sector RO-R c4-2023.90122Hyades Sector JN-K b8-3; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-19; No0
HIP 669425.10511Arietis Sector MX-U c2-19; No0.1
Ceti Sector ZU-Y b127.03722Hyades Sector LX-U d2-95; Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4; No0.7
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-231.11911Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4; No-0.2
Ceti Sector ZE-A c1435.21111{30.134} Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4; No0.5
Late protection of Pathamon

Indra, Thor, Raijin: recaptures do not change primary prediction

Hadad
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-218.31033Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1; Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;No-0.7
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-519.63211Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;No-0.7
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-3120.04666Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; HIP 31648; etcNo-0
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-820.60711Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;No-0.9
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-320.78377HIP 31648; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etcNo0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2921.25444Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; etcNo-0.4
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-521.48222Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No-0.6
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-421.89222HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; No-0.9
And the protection of HR 2204 takes away another inhabited system


Looks like we might be down to just 7 or 8 (depending on exactly how backtracking works to let Tougeir at Jeng) inhabited targets this week - either way, a new record low.
 
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