Taranis: the attack is as expected; Titans appear to have the same 1-week cooldown as conventional Controls
Leigiong: the Titan attacks, but as if it were attacking externally.
- possibility here: the Titan can only attack after all normal Controls have been tried, and the normal Control has already switched targeting into external mode by this point; there is no mechanism to switch back to internal mode.
Thor: Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-2 is not attacked
- instead, HIP 21125 is attacked
- this looks like to be an attack by JA-G b11-1, picking the 3rd of five targets by distance
- notably the attack by RW-D b12-3 was also skipped over, so possibly we have a situation where the 6th Alert, if several preceding Alerts have been external, must also be a backtrack
... though this doesn't necessarily fit well with what we see at Oya at times.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 0 control systems and 997 regional systems.
Total connected: 0
Furthest Control: 0.000 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Taranis itself should be resting this week
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 1 control systems and 996 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 9016
9.602805173
Furthest Control: 9.603 LY
Furthest potential capture: 14.458 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Leigong and all active Controls resting this week
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 54 control systems and 937 regional systems.
Total connected: 51 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 19098
13.95811956
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-1
15.84982009
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-2
15.8593673
Furthest Control: 21.108 LY
Furthest potential capture: 22.469 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Obamumbo
18.655
14.788
HIP 19263; Gaezatorix (9.996 LY); Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1;
Yes
HIP 21261
20.241
13.186
64 Tauri; HIP 20916; HR 1354; etc
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
HIP 20485
21.436
11.826
63 Tauri;
Yes
HIP 20527
22.540
14.040
Hyadum I; (backtrack HIP 20815)(backtrack HR 1358)(backtrack 58 Tauri)
HIP 21179; (backtrack Ross 378)(backtrack Hyades Sector QI-S b4-2)
Yes
HIP 20899
23.086
17.089
HIP 20916; (backtrack HIP 20146)(backtrack HIP 20948)(backtrack HIP 20741)(backtrack 80 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 20605)
Yes
Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2
22.525
17.419
Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1;
No
HIP 22496
21.779
17.506
HIP 22265; (backtrack 97 i Tauri)(backtrack Hyades Sector FX-H a11-0)(backtrack HIP 22350)
Yes
Indra hits the control sphere edge - the first five and then the backtrack to HIP 20899 is the sequence predicted by the model but there's enough uncertainty in this that other attacks would be unsurprising.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 24 control systems and 968 regional systems.
Total connected: 24
Furthest Control: 17.920 LY
Furthest potential capture: 21.188 LY - may affect result if not defended
Should be interesting at Oya as we get to see where HIP 8525 attacks when HIP 2422 is on cooldown (and HIP 7338 is covered by Kanus) - Poqomathi would be inhabited target 3, so might be attacked - or if the issue is that the real metric makes Poqomathi difficult, a fallback to Bumbo is possible.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 69 control systems and 923 regional systems.
Total connected: 69
Furthest Control: 21.999 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Khwal
21.530
17.824
Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10; HIP 38718;
Yes
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105
21.681
16.153
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143;
No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4
21.832
21.416
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-136
22.883
15.249
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-92;
No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3
23.190
15.964
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0)
No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-53
22.365
16.216
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-3;
No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-6
25.235
16.365
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0)
No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3
25.126
16.728
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 (9.927 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0
25.038
17.735
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7;
No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69
23.672
17.774
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector QX-H b11-2)
Yes
The first five attacks should go through - and then VY-Q c5-18 (not shown) should be able to use the backtrack to attack SS-H b11-0.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 38 control systems and 953 regional systems.
Total connected: 34 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
Furthest Control: 21.239 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.122 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-2
19.631
9.871
HIP 19091; Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-11; Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-1; etc
No
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4
21.039
12.054
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3; etc
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1
22.646
14.391
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0
25.395
16.563
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1;
No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-2
23.534
18.083
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3)
No
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2
25.824
18.989
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3
23.239
21.239
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2;
No
No usable backtracks so only five Alerts expected - but Thor's four outer Alerts are capable of changing the attack order significantly.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 78 control systems and 914 regional systems.
Total connected: 78
Allowing for there being 8 Alerts now:
Taranis, Leigong: resting as expected
Indra: the 8 predicted by the model (it gets seven normally, then the eighth happens to be the first backtrack anyway)
Oya: HIP 8525 goes outwards to Poqomathi (retaining the same inhabited target index as HIP 2422) rather than inwards to Bumbo; this implies that whatever was keeping it away from Poqomathi in weeks where HIP 2422 was available was due to HIP 2422 being more attractive in some way, rather than Poqomathi being unreachable in some way.
Cocijo: first 6 Alerts as expected, then VN-H b11-4 attacks the nearer VN-H b11-0 rather than XT-Q c5-6, then the backtrack from VY-Q c5-18 to attack SS-H b11-0 gives the 8th as modelled.
Thor: places the full 7 Alerts possible, no surprises about where
Raijin, Hadad: enough gaps for now to place a full 8 Alerts internally, which they do in the conventional way.
Changes to model for next run: 8 Alert budget, of course, but also I will print a longer list of "reserve" targets as it might be needed soon!
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Manual noting of Maelstrom-based attacks below - these are sufficiently rare that I'm not going to bother updating the model for something which will probably happen only once more after this prediction.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 0 control systems and 997 regional systems.
Total connected: 0
Furthest Control: 0.000 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Additionally, Taranis is expected to attack Swahku as the remaining inhabited system in range.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 3 control systems and 996 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
Additionally, Leigong should attack HIP 8033 to complete its inner core.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 54 control systems and 934 regional systems.
Total connected: 51 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 19098
13.95811956
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-1
15.84982009
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-2
15.8593673
Furthest Control: 21.108 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Hyadum II
18.976
12.724
HIP 20350; HR 1354; HIP 20679;
No
79 b Tauri
19.444
18.494
HIP 20397;
No
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4
19.729
12.757
HIP 20349; HIP 20712;
No
77 Theta-1 Tauri
20.629
17.820
HR 1354; HIP 20679;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-5
22.145
13.958
HIP 19098;
No
Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2
22.525
17.419
Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1;
No
HIP 22496
21.779
17.506
HIP 22265; (backtrack 97 i Tauri)(backtrack Hyades Sector FX-H a11-0)(backtrack HIP 22350)
Yes
HIP 20019
25.583
17.871
HIP 20679; (backtrack HIP 20815)(backtrack HIP 20890)(backtrack 58 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21008)(backtrack 55 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 20146)(backtrack HIP 20948)(backtrack HIP 20056)(backtrack HIP 20741)(backtrack 78 Theta-2 Tauri)(backtrack 68 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21099)
First seven expected as normal, then the first opportunity to use the backtracks will be Hyades NN-S b4-3 (15th) attacking 97 i Tauri
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 24 control systems and 968 regional systems.
Total connected: 24
Furthest Control: 17.920 LY
Furthest potential capture: 20.669 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1
17.750
15.212
HIP 13179;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6
21.332
13.650
Ardhri;
No
Cephei Sector AV-Y b0
23.575
14.331
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;
No
HIP 3006
18.930
14.713
Sambaho;
No
Four perimeter systems each with only one possible target, so there's not much scope for anything else to happen here.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 70 control systems and 920 regional systems.
Total connected: 70
Furthest Control: 21.999 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.038 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2
21.760
16.728
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3; HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-5
24.181
14.622
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6)
No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6
22.723
15.670
HIP 36809;
No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-2
24.746
16.621
Ulche; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6)
No
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
17.688
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; (backtrack Hez Ur)(backtrack Canaharvas)(backtrack Chibis)
Yes
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69
23.672
17.774
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector QX-H b11-2)
Yes
Paitra
24.880
18.193
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22)(backtrack HIP 36901)(backtrack Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22)
Yes
Canaharvas
23.548
18.409
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; (backtrack Vucumatha)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7)
Yes
Chibis
24.821
19.034
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5;
Yes
Picenile
24.796
19.205
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16;
Yes
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72
28.169
19.376
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0)(backtrack HIP 35633)(backtrack Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5)
No
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22
27.359
19.395
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3;
No
Desurinbin
25.105
20.306
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5;
Yes
Vucumatha
23.098
20.476
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10;
Yes
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-6
28.194
20.745
HIP 38235; (backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16)
No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7
24.810
20.765
HIP 38718;
No
The backtrack gets taken care of early on, so it should just be the first eight - but note that this is extremely conditional on which of Cocijo's current Alerts get prevented and any of its outer four getting through to Control will significantly change the ordering and possibly the outcome.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 38 control systems and 952 regional systems.
Total connected: 34 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
Furthest Control: 21.239 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.824 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0
19.071
17.596
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
20.096
13.139
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1;
No
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0
20.924
16.706
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5
24.842
16.109
Chanyaya; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0)
No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
21.776
16.209
HIP 19894;
No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4
22.217
17.210
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5;
No
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0
26.493
18.984
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1)
No
With only seven attacks possible this one is a bit less sensitive - the Chanyaya/HIP 19894 attacks will hit those systems in some order, but where JA-G b11-1 hits will depend on where the Control sphere ends up. (and with four possible targets, might go closer even then)
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 81 control systems and 909 regional systems.
Total connected: 81
So... accounting for the reduction to 6 Alerts
- Taranis attacks Swahku as expected
- at Leigong, as well as Leigong itself not attacking, Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3 attacks HIP 10118 instead.
- at Cocijo, the extension of the Control sphere means that Cocijo can attack six internally, so it does.
Everywhere else as expected.
It's possible that the Titan's emergency attack requires a particular amount of spare Alert budget, or maybe can only take place if the remaining size of the Maelstrom is sufficiently small. We probably won't find out much more from Taranis in this respect as there are very few remaining targets there anyway, and Hupang can also reach them, but we may be able to get a bit more out of Leigong.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Calculating based on 6 Alerts per maelstrom, but if it turns out that the Alert count now varies each week based on some other factors some of the external predictions will be affected by that.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 0 control systems and 996 regional systems.
Total connected: 0
Furthest Control: 0.000 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Taranis is recovering and there aren't any other Controls yet.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 3 control systems and 993 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 9016
9.602805173
Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3
9.933224316
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0
14.4583521
Furthest Control: 14.458 LY
Furthest potential capture: 15.211 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
This should be a good test of whether the Titan's emergency Alert is limited by budget or by Control count. Leigong to HIP 8033 is possible.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 54 control systems and 931 regional systems.
Total connected: 51 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 19098
13.95811956
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-1
15.84982009
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-2
15.8593673
Furthest Control: 21.108 LY
Furthest potential capture: 22.145 LY - may affect result if not defended
The attack on 55 Tauri is the first usable backtrack after the first five attacks, but this is conditional on whether that unpopulated Alert at LM-V b2-5 is stopped: if it isn't, Indra will get six internal attacks.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 24 control systems and 970 regional systems.
Total connected: 24
Furthest Control: 17.920 LY
Furthest potential capture: 23.575 LY - may affect result if not defended
The only slightly uncertain one is HIP 8525 to HIP 2422 - this would be expected to go through, but there are some possibilities where Poqomathi not being available as a target to not attack might make a difference
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 77 control systems and 914 regional systems.
Total connected: 77
Furthest Control: 25.038 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6
20.034
17.824
Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16;
No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-4
20.309
14.428
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; etc
No
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0
20.899
18.409
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; HIP 38718;
No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4
21.191
20.745
HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8;
No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16
21.655
16.153
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143; Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105;
No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22
22.973
18.193
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; etc
No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106
23.034
21.247
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105;
No
Vucumatha
23.098
19.205
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16 (9.934 LY); Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10; HIP 38718; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13
23.161
20.476
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10; HIP 38718; Mahlina;
No
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2
23.233
20.772
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6;
No
HIP 36901
23.391
19.376
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5;
No
Canaharvas
23.548
20.765
HIP 38718;
Yes
Vocovii
23.671
15.964
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Mahlina; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69
23.672
17.774
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2
24.101
21.455
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-3;
No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-5
24.181
16.365
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7; etc
No
After last week's big jump out with the external attacks, Cocijo will be on internal targeting for quite some time.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 38 control systems and 954 regional systems.
Total connected: 34 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
Furthest Control: 21.239 LY
Furthest potential capture: 24.842 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
HIP 19600
20.316
16.563
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
HIP 18075
21.405
13.208
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-11;
Yes
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3
22.642
18.083
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3;
No
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0
26.493
18.984
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8)(backtrack HIP 21125)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1)
No
Thor remains unable to make use of its full Alert budget.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 87 control systems and 904 regional systems.
Total connected: 87
A slight thought I had regarding the outlier 8 alert week - is it possible that it added a rule of, a Titan with little or no controls not attacking gives other Titans more alert budget?
(If no one’s had it by now, which would surprise me.)
Weeks commencing 14 Dec and 28 Dec had the same Alert pattern (i.e. none) at Leigong and Taranis without triggering the effect, so it would still have to be a new rule for 2024 if so.
If that is it, Taranis can't (as far as we know) place any Alerts tomorrow, and Leigong can only place one from the Titan itself (and might not even do that), so we might see a similar effect.
It’s certainly possible with all of those recent rule changes. But yeah, it’ll be something we’ll know tomorrow. If it was not down to that… well, probably an even more manual intervention from Frontier than adding an extra parameter to the system.
Taranis: no attacks expected or seen
Leigong: no conventional attacks expected or seen, Leigong itself also doesn't attack
Indra: expansion of control sphere through successful Alerts allows it to place eight internal Alerts instead, it does so as expected
Oya: HIP 2422 selected for attack as expected
Cocijo, Raijin, Hadad: expected conventional internal weeks, did that
Thor: an alert capture changes the attack order slightly, predicting KA-G b11-0 is replaced as a target by OC-V d2-96, and that's what happens
So everything seems to be as expected in terms of the targeting behaviour.
As noted elsewhere, Alert count is back up to 8 this week; Kira's idea that it might be caused by Maelstroms being unable to Alert at all is certainly a possibility; if so then we might expect back to 6 next week followed by another 8 the week after.
I will provisionally run the prediction on a 6 Alert count, as this should cover both "compensatory budget" and "alternating 6 and 8" ideas for now. Distinguishing between the two may take a bit longer.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 1 control systems and 996 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
Hupang has a lot of targets available but since HIP 23816 is the only inhabited one it seems near certain that it will be picked. Taranis most likely will be back for another attack this week which would likely be to the slightly more distant FB-N b7-4 target, but there are possible rules for the emergency attack where it wouldn't.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 5 control systems and 993 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 9016
9.602805173
Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3
9.933224316
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0
14.4583521
HIP 10118
15.10286992
HIP 9709
15.21117625
Furthest Control: 15.211 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0
14.458
9.933
Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3; HIP 10118;
No
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3
15.164
15.103
HIP 10118;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-2
16.973
14.458
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0;
No
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93
20.925
15.211
HIP 9709;
No
Having passed two weeks in a row, Leigong seems unlikely to attack again. There's not much room for variation on this one as all four of Leigong's perimeter controls are attacking
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 59 control systems and 926 regional systems.
Total connected: 55 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 19098
13.95811956
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-1
15.84982009
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-2
15.8593673
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-5
22.14489748
Furthest Control: 22.145 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
HIP 20577
17.806
12.724
HIP 20350; Hyadum I; HIP 20916; etc
Yes
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3
20.115
13.958
HIP 19098; Arietis Sector LM-V b2-5;
No
70 Tauri
20.963
14.040
Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HR 1354; etc
Yes
HIP 20890
21.889
17.820
HR 1354; HIP 20679; HIP 20712; etc
Yes
HIP 22350
21.917
21.108
Lei Hsini;
No
HR 1358
22.042
17.089
HIP 20916; HIP 20397; 79 b Tauri; etc
No
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1
22.112
16.450
HIP 20480; HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-2
22.428
15.464
76 Tauri;
No
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3
22.469
15.859
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-2;
No
Hyades Sector QI-S b4-2
25.285
16.600
HIP 21179; (backtrack Ross 378)
No
Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2
22.525
17.419
Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1;
No
HIP 20019
25.583
17.871
HIP 20679; (backtrack 58 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21008)(backtrack 55 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 20146)(backtrack HIP 20948)(backtrack HIP 20056)(backtrack HIP 20741)(backtrack 78 Theta-2 Tauri)(backtrack 68 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21099)
There are sufficient backtracks that Oya only needs a 6-Alert budget to place all its attacks in most situations (there are some situations where some of this week's Alerts get through which might change that)
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 82 control systems and 906 regional systems.
Total connected: 82
Furthest Control: 25.038 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6
23.150
21.295
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4;
No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13
23.161
20.476
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-10; HIP 38718; Mahlina;
No
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2
23.233
20.772
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0;
No
HIP 36901
23.391
19.376
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5;
No
Canaharvas
23.548
17.688
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; HIP 38718;
Yes
Vocovii
23.671
15.964
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Mahlina; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69
23.672
17.774
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2
24.101
21.455
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-3;
No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6
24.140
16.621
Ulche; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1;
No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-5
24.181
14.622
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-1; etc
No
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1
24.209
22.551
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0;
No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2
24.209
21.760
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2
24.329
18.572
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc
No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-2
24.746
22.888
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1;
No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7
24.810
20.765
HIP 38718; Mahlina;
No
Chibis
24.821
19.034
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5;
Yes
Lots of internal targets, should just work its way down the list
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 44 control systems and 950 regional systems.
Total connected: 38 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
21.77609336
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5
24.84190245
Furthest Control: 24.842 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
HIP 19198
17.094
18.595
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-0;
Yes
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-2
19.631
9.871
HIP 19091; Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3;
No
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
20.882
13.139
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6;
No
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4
21.039
12.054
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3; etc
No
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1
21.811
21.776
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0;
No
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1
22.646
14.391
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0;
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8
22.752
16.706
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0;
No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1
22.991
17.596
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4;
No
HIP 21125
23.109
20.096
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0;
No
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3
23.239
21.239
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2;
No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-2
23.534
18.226
HIP 19046;
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7
23.756
20.924
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0;
No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
23.955
24.842
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;
No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3
24.094
17.210
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2
25.824
18.989
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2;
No
Theemim
30.148
22.217
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1)
Yes
Thor seems to have taken advantage of the distractions caused by the mass of invasions elsewhere to break through containment, and probably has a couple of weeks of internal fill-in targeting ahead of it.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 90 control systems and 897 regional systems.
Total connected: 90
Taranis: Hupang picks the expected target - inhabited being prioritised over uninhabited does seem to be the one solid thing we know about external targeting - but then Taranis picks the nearer one. That's interesting mostly because it rules out some lines of enquiry: most ideas where the Source-Destination distances also matter would predict a Titan always attacking the furthest target (as Taranis indeed did for its uninhabited targets).
Leigong as expected.
Indra: places an eighth Alert despite the switchover coming at index 8. It's an invasion of HIP 20616 - the next target out by distance. I can't see an obvious reason this would work on our current theories; it's not that Invasions count for the border too.
Oya: meanwhile Oya only places 5 Alerts - the Alert at AF-A c22 getting through pushes the border outwards, which means that the order in which attacks are placed is different, so Sambaho isn't free to attack Luggerates by the time things get that far.
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Cephei Sector WO-A b4
15.395
8.517
Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16;
No
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2
18.346
13.650
Ardhri; Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;
No
HIP 4041
18.528
14.713
Sambaho;
No
Cephei Sector AF-A c21
20.669
15.212
HIP 13179; Cephei Sector AF-A c9;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
HIP 11111
24.118
15.681
Cephei Sector AF-A c9;
Yes
Cocijo, Thor, Raijin: predicted pure internal weeks and that's what we've got
Hadad: gets eight as the prediction table above shows (attack 8 is a backtrack from attack 7) but I misread when making the notes above
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Hard to guess whether we'll get 6 Alerts or 8, or even some other number. I've noted predictions for both 6 and 8.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 1 control systems and 994 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Hupang
9.168294126
Furthest Control: 9.168 LY
Furthest potential capture: 9.739 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Hupang and Taranis itself both resting, no attacks expected.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 5 control systems and 989 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 9016
9.602805173
Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3
9.933224316
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0
14.4583521
HIP 10118
15.10286992
HIP 9709
15.21117625
Furthest Control: 15.211 LY
Furthest potential capture: 20.925 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Everything on the perimeter resting or new, Leigong expected not to place an emergency attack.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 65 control systems and 918 regional systems.
Total connected: 65
Furthest Control: 22.145 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Obamumbo
18.655
14.788
HIP 19263; Gaezatorix (9.996 LY); Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1;
HIP 20679; (backtrack HIP 21008)(backtrack HIP 20146)(backtrack HIP 20948)(backtrack HIP 20056)(backtrack HIP 20741)(backtrack HIP 20019)(backtrack 68 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21099)
Indra on eight Alerts gets as far as its first backtrack. On six Alerts, the first five then a jump to 78 Theta-2 Tauri would be expected. With Indra's 8th attack this week being outside the model, I've picked HIP 20679 as its likely source.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 26 control systems and 966 regional systems.
Total connected: 26
FB-X b1-1 has a lot of potential targets out there, so we may get some interesting targeting priority data. On a 6-Alert budget, it's likely to fall short of getting Yemaki.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 90 control systems and 898 regional systems.
Total connected: 90
Furthest Control: 25.038 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6
24.140
16.621
Ulche; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22;
No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1
24.157
20.034
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;
No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-5
24.181
14.622
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-1; etc
No
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1
24.209
22.551
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0;
No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2
24.209
20.745
HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2
24.329
18.572
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc
No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-2
24.746
22.888
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22;
No
Picenile
24.796
19.205
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16;
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-7
24.810
18.409
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Kurumanit; HIP 38718; etc
No
Chibis
24.821
17.824
Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5;
Yes
Paitra
24.880
18.193
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; etc
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-6
25.235
16.365
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4;
No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3
25.126
16.728
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 (9.927 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
19.034
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.976 LY);
Yes
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22
27.359
19.395
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3;
No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11
28.899
20.237
Kurumanit (9.965 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2)(backtrack 19 Puppis)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6)
Yes
Plenty of internal targets on either 6 or 8 Alert budget.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 47 control systems and 943 regional systems.
Total connected: 41 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
21.77609336
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5
24.84190245
Furthest Control: 24.842 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
HIP 21125
23.109
18.984
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0; etc
No
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3
23.239
21.239
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2;
No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-2
23.534
18.083
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3; HIP 19046; Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3;
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7
23.756
20.096
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0; Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96;
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9
23.870
22.000
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96;
No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
23.955
24.842
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;
No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3
24.094
17.210
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0
25.395
16.563
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1;
No
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2
25.824
18.989
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-81
29.906
20.316
HIP 19600 (9.998 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0
26.493
20.924
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2)(backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1)
No
Theemim
30.148
22.217
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1)
Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2
28.863
22.642
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3;
No
7 internals, so on an 8 Alert budget it might miss one. Or, like Indra this week, it might not.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 95 control systems and 890 regional systems.
Total connected: 95
Raijin still has plenty of internals to go through.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 79 control systems and 908 regional systems.
Total connected: 79
Furthest Control: 24.118 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.952 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Muruidooges
18.367
9.378
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0;
Yes
Bi Dhorora
18.466
9.685
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0;
Yes
Vogulu
20.728
15.324
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;
Yes
HR 2138
23.124
18.869
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-3;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8
25.273
17.571
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12;
No
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1
24.332
17.575
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0)
No
HIP 29217
25.118
17.633
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;
No
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5
26.055
18.036
Vasupari (9.991 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0
24.192
18.310
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19)(backtrack Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22)
No
Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-0
27.145
19.589
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6;
No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22
28.147
19.632
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5;
No
HIP 32718
27.177
20.046
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1)
No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5
24.456
20.179
HIP 32764;
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79
29.740
20.607
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8 (9.951 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6
26.018
20.752
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4;
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0
26.730
20.783
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3;
No
On a 6 budget, the internal four and the first external. On an 8 budget, the first 7, then a backtrack attack on OB-D b13-0 is possible for the 8th. If this week's Alerts go through, on the other hand, there's plenty of room for all attacks to be done internally.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Since the Alert count seems reasonably consistent at eight, I'm generating backtrack estimates in the main tables on that basis for now.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 2 control systems and 994 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
If Taranis can make an emergency attack with 2 Controls operational (1 yes, 3 no at Leigong, 2 uncertain) then FB-N b7-4 will get filled in as its last available target.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 9 control systems and 989 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 22422)(backtrack HIP 23069)
No
Provisionally all external, with the eighth applying the backtrack, but it's very likely of course that the sphere will get extended enough to do 8 internal attacks instead.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 30 control systems and 960 regional systems.
Total connected: 30
Furthest Control: 21.188 LY
Furthest potential capture: 23.575 LY - may affect result if not defended
Raijin's density and one loose control system mean that it'll be making internal attacks for a while.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 86 control systems and 901 regional systems.
Total connected: 86
Furthest Control: 25.952 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2
21.112
13.345
Montioch;
No
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5
22.009
23.299
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11;
No
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-1
23.916
17.369
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10 (9.960 LY);
No
HIP 29217
25.118
17.633
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8
25.273
17.571
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2; etc
No
H Puppis
25.935
23.453
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5
26.055
18.036
Vasupari (9.991 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24
26.682
18.841
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0;
No
Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-0
27.145
19.589
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6;
No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22
28.147
19.632
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19)
No
HIP 32718
27.177
20.046
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1)
No
Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1
27.100
20.418
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16;
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79
29.740
20.607
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8 (9.951 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6
26.018
20.752
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4;
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0
26.730
20.783
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3;
No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29
28.359
21.254
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29;
No
Six internal, then one external which doesn't backtrack to get a second. Hadad has for now overtaken Raijin as the maelstrom with the largest radius - though Oya's jump to Yemaki means that it may not keep that title for long.
Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
-- Leigong
-- Indra
HIP 19263:1
63 Tauri:1
71 Tauri:1
76 Tauri:1
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-1:1
HIP 21179:1
Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1:1
HIP 20679:1
-- Oya
HIP 8525:1
Daruwach:1
HIP 10778:1
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3:1
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1:1
Cephei Sector AF-A c22:1
-- Cocijo
Ulche:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6:1
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0:1
HIP 38235:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18:1
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1:1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6:1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5:1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9:1
Chnemine:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5:1
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1:1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4:1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7:1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2:1
HIP 32764:1
Taranis: while Taranis did get a third control as the invasion of HR 1737 completed, it attacked its final interior target anyway. Leigong did have a week where it had three controls for the full week before its next chance to attack, so that may be a necessary distinction. Hupang attacks uninhabited target 7 of 7 by distance with its Alert, which is surprisingly in-line with the basic theory.
Thor: HIP 19600 to OC-V d2-81 did not occur - the first time, I think, that we've recorded an attack that's technically under the 10 LY limit not going through. As a result, JA-G b11-0 to KA-G b11-0 is the 7th Alert instead, which allows EA-Q c5-8 to grab a backtrack to EA-Q c5-1 and Thor gets an 8th Alert after all.
Leigong, Cocijo, Raijin, Hadad: predictions accurate
Indra, Oya: successful Alerts extend their perimeters. Revised predictions below were accurate.
Calculating Indra
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
58 Tauri
22.297
14.040
Hyadum I; HIP 20916; Hyadum II; etc
No
HIP 22688
22.385
18.885
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; HIP 22524; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5;
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
HIP 19600 to OC-V d2-81 has been added to the excluded attacks list, though that wouldn't affect this week anyway.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 3 control systems and 991 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HR 1737
8.625056612
Hupang
9.168294126
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2
9.739176685
Furthest Control: 9.739 LY
Furthest potential capture: 16.214 LY - may affect result if not defended
With the Alert at FB-N b7-2 almost certain to go through, HR 1737 will instead be able to go for BA-A d85 as an internal attack, which will likely reactivate Taranis' first spire on the originally expected schedule.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 10 control systems and 984 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
HIP 9016
9.602805173
Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3
9.933224316
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0
14.4583521
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0
14.45838587
HIP 10118
15.10286992
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3
15.16372238
HIP 9709
15.21117625
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-2
16.97300821
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94
17.45115952
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93
20.92522961
Furthest Control: 20.925 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Patollu
21.619
17.451
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94;
Yes
Leigong's successful invasion gives it an Alert to send in the "off week" - it might take quite a while before it stops alternating high- and low-Alert weeks.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 75 control systems and 909 regional systems.
Total connected: 75
Furthest Control: 25.285 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
HIP 19157
21.650
15.097
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;
Yes
HIP 22496
21.779
17.506
HIP 22265; HIP 22524; Hyades Sector FX-H a11-0;
Yes
Ross 378
22.303
16.600
HIP 21179; Hyades Sector PI-S b4-2; Hyades Sector QI-S b4-2;
No
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-3
23.081
16.450
HIP 20480; HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc
Oya is now getting a few more attacks out, and has a lot of inhabited attacks coming up. ZE-A c8 could pull back to Jaoi instead.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 103 control systems and 883 regional systems.
Total connected: 103
Furthest Control: 25.038 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.235 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2
24.231
24.157
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;
No
HR 3048
24.597
20.034
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;
No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5
24.864
20.745
HIP 38235;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3
25.126
16.728
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 (9.927 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector QX-H b11-2
26.478
17.774
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6;
No
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
17.824
Mapon;
Yes
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6
26.660
18.572
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19)
No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72
28.169
19.376
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0)(backtrack HIP 35633)(backtrack Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5)
No
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22
27.359
19.395
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3;
No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11
28.899
20.237
Kurumanit (9.965 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2)(backtrack 19 Puppis)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6)
Yes
Desurinbin
25.105
20.306
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5;
Yes
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3
29.712
20.772
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2)
No
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2
25.947
20.853
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1;
Yes
Asletae
28.536
20.899
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0;
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6
28.669
21.146
Mahlina;
No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7
27.830
21.191
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1)
No
Cocijo's connection density makes calculations difficult, but the backtrack to VY-Q c5-19 should be usable by multiple systems, with UN-H b11-2 being the first, to get an 8th Alert.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 61 control systems and 928 regional systems.
Total connected: 53 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
21.77609336
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1
21.81126877
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
23.95464872
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5
24.84190245
Furthest Control: 24.842 LY
Furthest potential capture: 27.378 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3
26.122
17.210
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5;
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2
25.089
20.096
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6;
No
Varlawoth
29.231
21.039
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4;
Yes
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14
28.185
21.776
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3)
No
Theemim
30.148
22.217
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1)
Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2
28.863
22.642
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3;
No
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1
27.471
22.991
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1;
No
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1
31.792
23.239
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3)
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-11
30.163
23.870
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9 (9.922 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3
26.058
23.955
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2)
No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13
31.072
24.842
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;
No
Five of these targets will shift to internal attacks if Thor's Alerts this week succeed, which will substantially change the prediction. The Rajuarpai island will become a loosely connected peninsula, too.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 107 control systems and 875 regional systems.
Total connected: 107
Raijin starts to get close enough to its edge to see it - though not, yet, to pass it.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 92 control systems and 894 regional systems.
Total connected: 92
Furthest Control: 25.952 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.055 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
HIP 30158
20.622
22.385
Yan Zangata;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22
28.147
18.310
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19)
No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24
26.682
18.841
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0;
No
Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-0
27.145
18.869
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1;
No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
26.984
19.632
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5;
No
HIP 32718
27.177
20.046
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1)
No
Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1
27.100
20.418
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16;
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79
29.740
20.607
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8 (9.951 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6
26.018
20.752
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4;
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0
26.730
20.783
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3;
No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29
28.359
21.254
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29;
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80
30.573
21.388
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0;
No
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7
30.393
21.723
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7;
No
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3
29.675
21.892
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0)
No
Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-1
30.811
22.792
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 (9.990 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7)
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84
32.479
22.869
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1 (9.972 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-20)
No
Hadad gets its backtrack in early, so the first eight on this should go through ... except that the Control sphere will extend slightly, bringing OR-B b14-6 and possibly others into internal attack range. The final result is therefore likely to be slightly different.
Code:
-- Taranis
Hupang:1
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2:1
-- Leigong
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0:1
HIP 10118:1
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-2:1
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3:1
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93:1
-- Indra
Hyadum I:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3:1
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2:1
HR 1354:1
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13:1
HIP 22350:1
HIP 20916:1
-- Oya
Ardhri:1
Sambaho:1
Cephei Sector WO-A b4:1
HIP 4041:1
Cephei Sector AF-A c21:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6:1
HIP 36901:1
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4:1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4:1
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4:1
-- Thor
Rajuarpai:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79:1
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8:1
-- Raijin
Kaurukat:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9:1
HIP 112475:1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0:1
-- Hadad
Montioch:1
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11:1
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10:1
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12:1
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1:1
Vasupari:1
Lots of extensions of control spheres this week, so revised predictions for Cocijo, Thor and Hadad below ... and Taranis as expected switched to an internal attack as well from HR 1737 to re-Alert its spire.
Indra's prediction had an error, unusual for internal weeks - Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0 wasn't attacked by Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3 so it moves to the next one down. This may have been a chain of miscalculated attackers responsible meaning that HG-X b1-3 wasn't available, it's hard to say at this stage. All other predictions were correct.
Cocijo:
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2
24.231
24.157
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;
No
HR 3048
24.597
20.034
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;
No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5
24.864
20.745
HIP 38235;
No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4
25.044
21.681
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106;
No
Desurinbin
25.105
20.306
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3
25.126
16.728
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 (9.927 LY); Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4 (9.981 LY); Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; etc
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector QX-H b11-2
26.478
17.774
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6;
No
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
17.824
Mapon;
Yes
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6
26.660
18.572
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19)
No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72
28.169
19.376
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0)(backtrack HIP 35633)(backtrack Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5)
No
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22
27.359
19.395
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3;
No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11
28.899
20.237
Kurumanit (9.965 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2)(backtrack 19 Puppis)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6)
Yes
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3
29.712
20.772
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2)
No
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2
25.947
20.853
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1;
Yes
Asletae
28.536
20.899
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0;
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6
28.669
21.146
Mahlina;
No
Thor:
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2
25.089
20.096
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7;
No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2
25.946
23.955
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;
No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3
26.058
21.776
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;
No
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3
26.122
17.210
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; etc
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Varlawoth
29.231
21.039
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4;
Yes
Theemim
30.148
22.217
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1)
Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2
28.863
22.642
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3;
No
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1
27.471
22.991
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1;
No
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1
31.792
23.239
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3)
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-11
30.163
23.870
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9 (9.922 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13
31.072
24.842
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14)
No
Hadad:
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
HIP 30158
20.622
22.385
Yan Zangata;
Yes
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6
26.018
20.752
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22
28.147
18.310
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19)
No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24
26.682
18.841
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0;
No
Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-0
27.145
18.869
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1;
No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
26.984
19.632
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5;
No
HIP 32718
27.177
20.046
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1)
No
Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1
27.100
20.418
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16;
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79
29.740
20.607
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8 (9.951 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0
26.730
20.783
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3;
No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29
28.359
21.254
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29;
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80
30.573
21.388
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0;
No
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7
30.393
21.723
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7;
No
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3
29.675
21.892
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0)
No
Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-1
30.811
22.792
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 (9.990 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7)
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84
32.479
22.869
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1 (9.972 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-20)
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Predictions, of course, may be significantly affected by whatever happens in Update 18.
I've included both "no Alerts succeed" and "all uninhabited Alerts succeed" predictions this week; depending on what happens this may switch to just including the "all uninhabited" version in future weeks.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 6 control systems and 990 regional systems.
Total connected: 0 Disconnected Controls
Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1; (backtrack Khondo Po)(backtrack Lyncis Sector VU-P b5-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector FI-G b12-2)
Yes
Bhotepa
28.232
23.498
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; (backtrack Gliese 3050)(backtrack HIP 115777)
Yes
With this week's Alert likely to extend Oya's control sphere substantially, this is highly unlikely. If all captures go through we would instead expect...
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Muncheim
23.557
18.853
HIP 7338; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;
Yes
Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4
23.670
18.528
HIP 4041; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;
No
HIP 2422
24.009
23.498
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;
Yes
Khondo Po
24.327
22.753
Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1;
Yes
Cephei Sector AV-Y b4
24.975
21.332
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Yemaki
28.834
21.188
Cephei Sector AF-A c22;
Yes
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 112 control systems and 876 regional systems.
Total connected: 112
Furthest Control: 25.235 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.478 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0
22.820
23.772
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
17.688
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;
Yes
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22
27.359
18.193
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4;
No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6
26.660
18.572
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19)
No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72
28.169
19.376
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0)(backtrack HIP 35633)(backtrack Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5)
No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11
28.899
20.237
Kurumanit (9.965 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2)(backtrack 19 Puppis)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6)
Yes
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3
29.712
20.772
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2)
No
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2
25.947
20.853
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1;
Yes
Asletae
28.536
20.899
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0;
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6
28.669
21.146
Mahlina;
No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7
27.830
21.191
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1)
No
Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-5
27.855
21.221
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5;
No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19
25.952
21.222
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;
No
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1
27.741
21.247
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8;
No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-6
26.762
21.295
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3)
No
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1
28.020
21.416
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0; (backtrack Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8)
No
or more likely the Control sphere gets extended enough to allow for eight internal attacks like this
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0
22.820
23.772
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0;
No
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1
25.325
22.723
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69;
No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4
25.367
21.760
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0
25.867
19.376
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; HIP 36901; etc
No
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2
25.947
20.237
Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1;
Yes
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19
25.952
18.572
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc
No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115
26.097
21.832
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2;
No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102
26.317
23.391
HIP 36901; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4;
No
Njana
26.325
21.655
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
17.688
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;
Yes
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22
27.359
18.193
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4;
No
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3
29.712
20.772
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2)
No
19 Puppis
26.617
20.853
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1;
No
Asletae
28.536
20.899
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0;
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11
28.899
21.146
Mahlina; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6)
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7
27.830
21.191
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1)
No
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 68 control systems and 920 regional systems.
Total connected: 68
Furthest Control: 27.378 LY
Furthest potential capture: 28.863 LY - may affect result if not defended
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3
24.220
25.852
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18;
No
HIP 18857
24.616
21.811
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;
Yes
HIP 18705
24.952
25.395
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3
28.314
22.796
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;
No
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1
31.792
23.239
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3;
No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-11
30.163
23.870
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9 (9.922 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13
31.072
24.842
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14)
It's taken quite a while, but Raijin looks ready to get to the edge of its sphere and extend very slightly - with the dense connections, of course, this is less aggressive than might be seen at Oya or Thor.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 100 control systems and 886 regional systems.
Total connected: 100
Furthest Control: 26.055 LY
Furthest potential capture: 28.147 LY - may affect result if not defended
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5; Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-1;
No
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-0
23.812
23.916
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-1;
No
HIP 28913
25.427
23.299
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11;
No
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79
29.740
20.607
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8 (9.951 LY);
No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0
26.730
20.783
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3;
No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29
28.359
21.254
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29;
No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80
30.573
21.388
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0;
No
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7
30.393
21.723
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7;
No
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3
29.675
21.892
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0)
No
Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-1
30.811
22.792
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 (9.990 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7)
No
Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0
27.984
22.869
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-20)(backtrack Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84)
No
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-23
31.190
23.124
HR 2138; (backtrack Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6)
No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19
30.737
23.515
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6;
No
And again, the control sphere is likely to extend, so we get a full internal week again. Not quite at the previous high of 32.48 LY where we observed our first external attacks.
It certainly looks like the primary determinant of strength is simply the count of Control systems - though there's a surprisingly small gap between "Moderate" and "Extremely High" in that case, given that it would be odd for those to be adjacent names (a "High" in-between, perhaps). If so, then Taranis can probably get up to "Extremely High" as well by the end of next week.
