Has anyone verified the titan damage payouts still match the UI values (i.e. nearly worthless) after the server update? Was wondering if they fixed a multiplier (hence the system progress actually progressing) but the UI is hardcoded to the old value, similar to how the status messages for interceptor payouts used to be much less than what you actually got paid.
Analysing the Thargoid Simulation
- Thread starter Ian Doncaster
- Start date
Resistance is probably a scaling value applied to damage before it's added to the system progress?
Strong hint on today's stream: Titans are "getting resources from somewhere" and that we should "clean up some of the systems around to make things easier" before concentrating on other Titans after Taranis. So spire sites are the important factors?
www.youtube.com
EDIT: Correct timestamp
Elite Dangerous, Planet Zoo Console Edition gameplay and a BIG giveaway | Frontier Unlocked #2
Frontier Unlocked returns for February with Elite Dangerous news, Planet Zoo Console Edition gameplay and more! Plus another BIG giveaway.
www.youtube.com
EDIT: Correct timestamp
Spires alone wouldn't explain the difference between Leigong and Taranis which both - currently - have no spires.
At the moment either control system count or maximum control radius would explain the current distinctions, with tomorrow likely bringing some changes there - and also giving Taranis a spire back - which should start to narrow down what's going on.
Easier said than done, of course - for most of the Maelstroms, even keeping pace with their 8 Alerts to get containment would be tough. I suppose it's possible that they've quietly reduced Control strengths again, of course.
My hypothesis is based on these new nuggets of information and previous statements that spire sites are somehow important to the Titans. Of course, all hypotheses need testing to see what's actually going on
Ah, very good point
A mix of various factors is likely. But maybe different weightings for controls, distances, spires and possibly more?Fdev quietly tweaking the strengths again would be in-character...
An idea regarding the ‘damage resistance’ indicator - it operates in thresholds of how much punishment a Titan requires to take in its first circle before it just starts getting absolutely battered like Taranis. Obviously, dependent on controls.
None (0 controls?) - 0% (assuming “None” is a possible state when a Titan has no controls)
Low (?? controls) - 10%? (also assumes ‘Low” is a possibility)
Moderate - 20-25%? (I didn’t have the opportunity to pay close enough attention to when Taranis crossed either mark)
High - 50% [seems a logical step from Moderate]
Extremely High - 75%
Maximum - 90-100% [decided to go with 90-100 instead of just writing 100 because it seems possible that it wouldn’t require going all the way before a Titan started to suffer serious damage]
Mind you, those are just educated guesses and as such can easily be wrong. My brain is also currently not in a state to try correlating number of controls or control distance to the different damage resistance states. I would be willing to wager a guess that 40 or 50+ controls may result in the “Maximum” resistance though.
There is also still that possibility the resistance stat continues to play a role even after surpassing the threshold. Seems unlikely to witness a Titan with an extremely high or maximum resistance stat going past such a threshold, but it would still be odd for it to be nearly indestructible and then start crumpling like paper if its regenerative capabilities are overwhelmed(or whatever the repair capacities of what’s on the Titan besides the hearts, are exceeded by the damage inflicted on them) on the first ‘circle’.
I guess existing progression numbers at least kind of support that second idea for the non-Taranis Titans.
None (0 controls?) - 0% (assuming “None” is a possible state when a Titan has no controls)
Low (?? controls) - 10%? (also assumes ‘Low” is a possibility)
Moderate - 20-25%? (I didn’t have the opportunity to pay close enough attention to when Taranis crossed either mark)
High - 50% [seems a logical step from Moderate]
Extremely High - 75%
Maximum - 90-100% [decided to go with 90-100 instead of just writing 100 because it seems possible that it wouldn’t require going all the way before a Titan started to suffer serious damage]
Mind you, those are just educated guesses and as such can easily be wrong. My brain is also currently not in a state to try correlating number of controls or control distance to the different damage resistance states. I would be willing to wager a guess that 40 or 50+ controls may result in the “Maximum” resistance though.
There is also still that possibility the resistance stat continues to play a role even after surpassing the threshold. Seems unlikely to witness a Titan with an extremely high or maximum resistance stat going past such a threshold, but it would still be odd for it to be nearly indestructible and then start crumpling like paper if its regenerative capabilities are overwhelmed(or whatever the repair capacities of what’s on the Titan besides the hearts, are exceeded by the damage inflicted on them) on the first ‘circle’.
I guess existing progression numbers at least kind of support that second idea for the non-Taranis Titans.
Might as well be a composition of resources in occupied uninhabited systems; hard to say without more data.
Well, allowing for the surprise reduction to 6 Alerts per Titan again, predictions mostly correct.
One exception at Oya: it actually got its sixth Alert whereas the current model wouldn't allow that after 5 internals. Not the first time we've seen something like that but it happens so rarely (and didn't, for example, at Thor this week) that I don't know what adjustment would be needed.
We should be able to get a good informal measure of the difference between Moderate and High, at least.
One exception at Oya: it actually got its sixth Alert whereas the current model wouldn't allow that after 5 internals. Not the first time we've seen something like that but it happens so rarely (and didn't, for example, at Thor this week) that I don't know what adjustment would be needed.
That does suggest it might just be Control count, then - though with some pretty weird thresholds if so which would make getting most Maelstroms below "Extremely High" a major challenge.
We should be able to get a good informal measure of the difference between Moderate and High, at least.
Last edited:
My theory - supported by Palin’s suggestion of spires being a large-scale industrial operation to provide stuff to the Titans - is…
Thargoids from systems controlled by them gather resources, which are then brought over to spires for refining into whatever those mineral compounds are(and possibly further other stuff) by Orthrus, instead of getting returned to the Titans and needing to be processed on it.
It could explain a few things - why the spire activity has the ability to clear several systems at once, because the Thargoids have to keep sending out those Orthrus in a transport instead of recon role to gather materials(and subsequently just stop bothering if too many are blown up), why there are lots and lots of asteroids surrounding a Titan(another source of minerals, though I suppose they could contain water for captives too), and a reason which could indicate that spires are in some way more influential on the ‘damage resistance’ stat.
Narwhal Nose report generated 29 February
-------------------------------------------
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
With the Alert budget having apparently changed yet again, prediction of where things go next is tricky for those with external Alerts. What happens at Taranis is also potentially very uncertain, of course. No changes to the model for now. Interestingly, no Alerts this week are likely to affect perimeter positioning, which does simplify things a bit.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 7 control systems and 985 regional systems.
Total connected: 2
Disconnected Controls
Furthest Control: 16.214 LY
Subject, of course, to Taranis surviving the week
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 14 control systems and 977 regional systems.
Total connected: 0
Disconnected Controls
Furthest Control: 20.925 LY
Just one Alert expected from Leigong this time and it's a long-range outer jump.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 90 control systems and 899 regional systems.
Total connected: 90
Furthest Control: 25.285 LY
Regardless of where the Alert budget ends up, Indra should be staying internal.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 40 control systems and 945 regional systems.
Total connected: 40
Furthest Control: 28.093 LY
A rare return to internal-only targeting at Oya, with all its perimeter on infill duty.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 118 control systems and 870 regional systems.
Total connected: 118
Furthest Control: 26.478 LY
Five internal Alerts at Cocijo. What happens after that really depends on the unpredictable budget.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 76 control systems and 915 regional systems.
Total connected: 76
Furthest Control: 28.863 LY
Similarly four internal at Thor, then an external, and then no obvious backtrack options so it should be limited to budget-1 in total
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 122 control systems and 865 regional systems.
Total connected: 122
Furthest Control: 25.661 LY
Raijin gets to go external for the first time in quite a while - exactly what backtracks are usable is going to depend a lot on how much budget it gets.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 106 control systems and 881 regional systems.
Total connected: 106
Furthest Control: 27.177 LY
While none of Hadad's early external Alerts have backtracks, so budget-1 - whatever the budget turns out to be - would be expected.
-------------------------------------------
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
With the Alert budget having apparently changed yet again, prediction of where things go next is tricky for those with external Alerts. What happens at Taranis is also potentially very uncertain, of course. No changes to the model for now. Interestingly, no Alerts this week are likely to affect perimeter positioning, which does simplify things a bit.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Taranis
Read 7 control systems and 985 regional systems.
Total connected: 2
Disconnected Controls
| System | Distance |
| Swahku | 5.359716644 |
| Hupang | 9.168294126 |
| Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2 | 9.739176685 |
| Hyades Sector FB-N b7-4 | 9.890810129 |
| Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2 | 16.21399256 |
Furthest Control: 16.214 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0 | 14.378 | 10.718 | Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; | No |
| Trianguli Sector CA-A c22 | 15.033 | 8.625 | HR 1737; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 14 control systems and 977 regional systems.
Total connected: 0
Disconnected Controls
| System | Distance |
| HIP 9016 | 9.602805173 |
| Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3 | 9.933224316 |
| Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0 | 14.4583521 |
| Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0 | 14.45838587 |
| Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0 | 14.72014325 |
| HIP 10118 | 15.10286992 |
| Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3 | 15.16372238 |
| HIP 9709 | 15.21117625 |
| HIP 9643 | 15.9134009 |
| Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-2 | 16.97300821 |
| Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19 | 17.16427408 |
| Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94 | 17.45115952 |
| Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1 | 18.47559624 |
| Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93 | 20.92522961 |
Furthest Control: 20.925 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Arietis Sector NX-U c2-12 | 27.424 | 20.925 | Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93; (backtrack Arietis Sector KM-W d1-81) | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 90 control systems and 899 regional systems.
Total connected: 90
Furthest Control: 25.285 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| 58 Tauri | 22.297 | 14.040 | Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HIP 20679; etc | No |
| Hyades Sector ON-S b4-6 | 22.610 | 22.303 | Ross 378; | No |
| Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0 | 23.431 | 22.469 | Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; | No |
| Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-3 | 23.541 | 18.885 | Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; HIP 22524; Hyades Sector FX-H a11-0; etc | No |
| HIP 20948 | 23.542 | 17.089 | HIP 20916; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc | Yes |
| Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0 | 23.647 | 21.108 | Lei Hsini; | No |
| HIP 20056 | 23.677 | 17.820 | HR 1354; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc | Yes |
| Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-2 | 23.960 | 20.093 | HIP 22524; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; HIP 22688; | No |
| HIP 20492 | 24.043 | 18.734 | 86 Rho Tauri; Hyadum II; 79 b Tauri; etc | Yes |
| HIP 21946 | 24.111 | 20.241 | HIP 21261; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 21008; etc | Yes |
| Hyades Sector DX-H a11-1 | 24.165 | 21.917 | HIP 22350; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; etc | No |
| HIP 20741 | 24.478 | 17.871 | HIP 20679; Hyadum II; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; etc | Yes |
| HIP 19757 | 24.520 | 17.955 | HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; | Yes |
| HIP 20482 | 24.608 | 21.389 | Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0; | No |
| HR 1403 | 24.664 | 18.554 | HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc | Yes |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2 | 26.286 | 16.450 | HIP 20480 (9.966 LY); | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 40 control systems and 945 regional systems.
Total connected: 40
Furthest Control: 28.093 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Poqomathi | 24.136 | 17.750 | Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; HIP 8525; Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2; | Yes |
| Cephei Sector EB-X b1-1 | 24.162 | 18.930 | HIP 3006; | No |
| Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5 | 24.511 | 22.149 | Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2; | No |
| Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6 | 24.953 | 17.920 | HIP 8525; | No |
| Jaoi | 25.464 | 19.896 | Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; | Yes |
| Cephei Sector ZE-A c10 | 26.586 | 28.093 | Cephei Sector ZE-A c12; | No |
| Gliese 9843 | 26.607 | 20.261 | Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 118 control systems and 870 regional systems.
Total connected: 118
Furthest Control: 26.478 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7 | 23.878 | 24.231 | Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; | No |
| Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115 | 26.097 | 21.832 | Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; | No |
| Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102 | 26.317 | 23.391 | HIP 36901; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; | No |
| Njana | 26.325 | 21.655 | Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1 | 26.329 | 20.034 | Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; HR 3048; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5 | 26.491 | 17.688 | Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22 | 27.359 | 18.193 | Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; | No |
| Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-6 | 28.194 | 20.745 | HIP 38235; (backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16) | No |
| Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3 | 29.712 | 20.772 | Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2) | No |
| 19 Puppis | 26.617 | 20.853 | Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; | No |
| Asletae | 28.536 | 20.899 | Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11 | 28.899 | 21.146 | Mahlina; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6) | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7 | 26.793 | 21.191 | Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7) | No |
| Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-5 | 27.855 | 21.221 | Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5; | No |
| Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6 | 26.660 | 21.222 | Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; | No |
| Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7 | 27.830 | 21.247 | Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8; | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 76 control systems and 915 regional systems.
Total connected: 76
Furthest Control: 28.863 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Vaipacnali | 18.643 | 17.094 | HIP 19198; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-0 | 22.864 | 21.405 | HIP 18075; | No |
| Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80 | 24.574 | 25.089 | Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2; | No |
| Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1 | 28.412 | 28.863 | Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1 | 31.792 | 23.239 | Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3; | No |
| Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-11 | 30.163 | 23.870 | Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9 (9.922 LY); | No |
| Synuefe OU-D b45-1 | 31.109 | 25.824 | Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2; (backtrack Synuefe OU-D b45-0)(backtrack Synuefe OU-D b45-3) | No |
| Almar | 31.784 | 26.058 | Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2 | 32.455 | 26.122 | Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3; | No |
| Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3 | 35.161 | 27.471 | Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1; | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 122 control systems and 865 regional systems.
Total connected: 122
Furthest Control: 25.661 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Bormuninus | 24.356 | 20.148 | Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; | Yes |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0 | 25.772 | 17.304 | Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9; | No |
| Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-6 | 27.115 | 17.663 | HIP 116351; | No |
| Kamato | 26.991 | 18.026 | Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; (backtrack Aurus) | Yes |
| Pegasi Sector GW-V b2-3 | 25.918 | 18.160 | Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6 (9.914 LY); | No |
| Wanmi | 26.362 | 18.935 | Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2; (backtrack Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-4) | Yes |
| Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-3 | 26.607 | 19.034 | Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1 (9.952 LY); (backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-3) | No |
| Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-5 | 28.174 | 19.355 | Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4)(backtrack Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1) | No |
| Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-7 | 28.748 | 19.406 | Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3; | No |
| Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-0 | 28.109 | 19.747 | Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; (backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-2)(backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1) | No |
| Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-2 | 28.793 | 19.751 | Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; (backtrack Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-1)(backtrack Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0) | No |
| Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-8 | 26.194 | 19.820 | Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-1) | No |
| Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-3 | 26.265 | 19.893 | Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; (backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-5)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-1)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2) | No |
| Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3 | 27.885 | 19.988 | Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); (backtrack Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7) | No |
| Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7 | 26.930 | 20.143 | HIP 115162; (backtrack Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-4) | No |
| Koko Oh | 27.066 | 20.431 | HIP 113535; (backtrack Ngolite)(backtrack Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-2)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SE-N a8-1) | Yes |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 106 control systems and 881 regional systems.
Total connected: 106
Furthest Control: 27.177 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1 | 26.107 | 24.320 | Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-3 (9.990 LY); Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19 (9.938 LY); | No |
| Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2 | 26.582 | 24.192 | Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; HIP 29217; | No |
| Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0 | 26.730 | 20.046 | Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31; Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3; | No |
| Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1 | 26.824 | 27.177 | HIP 32718; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79 | 29.740 | 20.607 | Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8 (9.951 LY); | No |
| Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29 | 28.359 | 21.254 | Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29; | No |
| Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80 | 30.573 | 21.388 | Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0; | No |
| Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7 | 30.393 | 21.723 | Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7; | No |
| Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3 | 29.675 | 21.892 | Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0) | No |
| Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-1 | 30.811 | 22.792 | Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 (9.990 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7) | No |
| Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0 | 27.984 | 22.869 | Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-20)(backtrack Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84) | No |
| Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-23 | 31.190 | 23.124 | HR 2138; (backtrack Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6) | No |
| Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19 | 30.737 | 23.515 | Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6; | No |
| Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-8 | 30.470 | 23.674 | Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1 (9.962 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-0) | No |
| Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84 | 32.479 | 23.734 | Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17; (backtrack HIP 32860) | No |
| Bagalya | 27.459 | 24.332 | Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5)(backtrack HIP 28183)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21) | Yes |
Code:
-- Taranis
Swahku:1
Hupang:1
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-4:1
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2:1
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2:1
-- Leigong
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19:1
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0:1
HIP 9643:1
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0:1
HIP 10118:1
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1:1
-- Indra
HIP 19263:1
63 Tauri:1
64 Tauri:1
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3:1
71 Tauri:1
HIP 19934:1
-- Oya
HIP 7338:1
HIP 4041:1
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0:1
Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1:1
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6:1
Cephei Sector AF-A c22:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69:1
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4:1
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-19:1
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
Tagin:1
-- Hadad
Omumba:1
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2:1
Montioch:1
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5:1
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-1:1
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11:1For the first time in a while, a need to reissue predictions due to human captures rather than Thargoid ones.
Taranis: outside scope of model, no prediction
Leigong: no Alerts predicted this week
Oya:
Nothing is backtracking to Gliese so if the Alert budget remains at 6 we'd expect only five Alerts this week.
Taranis: outside scope of model, no prediction
Leigong: no Alerts predicted this week
Oya:
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Poqomathi | 24.136 | 17.750 | Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; HIP 8525; Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2; | Yes |
| Cephei Sector EB-X b1-1 | 24.162 | 18.930 | HIP 3006; | No |
| Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5 | 24.511 | 22.149 | Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2; | No |
| Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6 | 24.953 | 17.920 | HIP 8525; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Jaoi | 25.464 | 19.896 | Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; (backtrack Cephei Sector ZE-A c10)(backtrack Cephei Sector ZE-A d69) | Yes |
| Gliese 9843 | 26.607 | 20.261 | Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; | No |
The result: all in-scope predictions seem correct (given that the Alert budget has jumped back up to 8/Maelstrom, of course). Raijin runs all the way down the list to LY-O a7-3 to get its backtrack.
Results coming in at Taranis - thanks as always to yttrbio for surveying everything each week - suggest that a destroyed Titan cannot generate Alerts, cannot reinforce damaged systems within the same state, but can continue existing Alerts or Invasions through to completion and can continue to hold its remaining territory at Control. I'll note that as provisional for now for future modelling.
Leigong was getting a reasonably consistent 5%/day last week once the action moved away from Taranis, so the next 24 hours will likely be sufficient to figure out a baseline for how its new "Very High" DR affects things.
Results coming in at Taranis - thanks as always to yttrbio for surveying everything each week - suggest that a destroyed Titan cannot generate Alerts, cannot reinforce damaged systems within the same state, but can continue existing Alerts or Invasions through to completion and can continue to hold its remaining territory at Control. I'll note that as provisional for now for future modelling.
Leigong was getting a reasonably consistent 5%/day last week once the action moved away from Taranis, so the next 24 hours will likely be sufficient to figure out a baseline for how its new "Very High" DR affects things.
Narwhal Nose report generated 7 March
-------------------------------------------
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Predictions for Taranis on hold for now.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 10 control systems and 987 regional systems.
Total connected: 6
Disconnected Controls
Furthest Control: 15.211 LY
The disconnected NX-U c2-20 attack is particularly threatening as it can eventually lead to a recapture of HIP 8033 and a strengthening of Leigong's inner core.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 91 control systems and 891 regional systems.
Total connected: 91
Furthest Control: 25.285 LY
Plenty of internal targets on either six or eight budget
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 40 control systems and 942 regional systems.
Total connected: 40
Furthest Control: 24.975 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.607 LY - may affect result if not defended
Oya's first chance to make full use of an 8-Alert budget comes this week; on a 6-Alert budget the lack of early backtracks probably limits it to five.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 126 control systems and 863 regional systems.
Total connected: 126
Furthest Control: 26.478 LY
Furthest potential capture: 27.359 LY - may affect result if not defended
This prediction is likely to need revising to include outer Alert successes and there's probably enough space in that scenario for an all-internal week.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 80 control systems and 909 regional systems.
Total connected: 80
Furthest Control: 28.863 LY
Furthest potential capture: 31.792 LY - may affect result if not defended
Getting those outer Alerts through would allow Thor to make at least six internal attacks instead.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 127 control systems and 857 regional systems.
Total connected: 127
Furthest Control: 25.661 LY
Furthest potential capture: 27.115 LY - may affect result if not defended
Raijin placed some longer-range Alerts last week, and is likely to switch back to all-internal once they succeed.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 110 control systems and 875 regional systems.
Total connected: 110
Furthest Control: 27.177 LY
Furthest potential capture: 30.573 LY - may affect result if not defended
The outer Alert captures are likely to change the targeting a bit - can Hadad finally attack MR-M c7-23?
-------------------------------------------
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Predictions for Taranis on hold for now.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Leigong
Read 10 control systems and 987 regional systems.
Total connected: 6
Disconnected Controls
| System | Distance |
| HIP 9016 | 9.602805173 |
| Arietis Sector NX-U c2-20 | 14.06437488 |
| Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0 | 14.4583521 |
| HIP 9709 | 15.21117625 |
Furthest Control: 15.211 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Hyades Sector KN-K b8-2 | 11.929 | 14.064 | Arietis Sector NX-U c2-20; | No |
| Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 | 15.102 | 14.417 | HIP 9180; Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| HIP 9137 | 22.059 | 14.720 | Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-0) | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Indra
Read 91 control systems and 891 regional systems.
Total connected: 91
Furthest Control: 25.285 LY
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| HIP 19157 | 21.650 | 15.097 | Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4; | Yes |
| HIP 21918 | 22.272 | 16.600 | HIP 21179; HIP 21475; Hyades Sector QI-S b4-2; | Yes |
| HIP 20492 | 24.043 | 15.082 | 71 Tauri; HIP 20577; 86 Rho Tauri; etc | Yes |
| HIP 21946 | 24.111 | 20.241 | HIP 21261; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 21008; etc | Yes |
| Hyades Sector DX-H a11-1 | 24.165 | 21.917 | HIP 22350; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; etc | No |
| HIP 20741 | 24.478 | 17.806 | HIP 20577; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc | Yes |
| HIP 19757 | 24.520 | 17.955 | HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; | Yes |
| HIP 20482 | 24.608 | 21.389 | Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0; | No |
| HR 1403 | 24.664 | 18.554 | HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc | Yes |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2 | 26.286 | 16.450 | HIP 20480 (9.966 LY); | No |
| HIP 20019 | 25.583 | 17.871 | HIP 20679; (backtrack 68 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21099) | Yes |
| Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4 | 27.169 | 17.960 | Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2; (backtrack Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4) | No |
| Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4 | 25.474 | 18.372 | Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; (backtrack Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3)(backtrack Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5) | No |
| Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17 | 25.780 | 18.594 | Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13; | No |
| HIP 21474 | 27.124 | 18.734 | 86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 22203)(backtrack 80 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri) | Yes |
| HIP 20719 | 27.717 | 18.976 | Hyadum II; (backtrack HIP 20605) | Yes |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Oya
Read 40 control systems and 942 regional systems.
Total connected: 40
Furthest Control: 24.975 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.607 LY - may affect result if not defended
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Aowicha | 23.769 | 15.711 | Daruwach; Cephei Sector AV-Y b4; | Yes |
| Lyncis Sector VU-P b5-5 | 24.712 | 22.753 | Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Gliese 3050 | 25.579 | 18.853 | HIP 7338; | No |
| Nawad | 29.018 | 20.669 | Cephei Sector AF-A c21; | Yes |
| HIP 118207 | 27.045 | 21.332 | Cephei Sector AV-Y b6; | No |
| Bhotepa | 28.232 | 23.498 | Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; (backtrack HIP 115777) | Yes |
| Xibe | 29.883 | 23.670 | Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4; (backtrack Cephei Sector AV-Y b5) | Yes |
| Cephei Sector AV-Y b5 | 26.964 | 24.975 | Cephei Sector AV-Y b4; (backtrack Cephei Sector ZE-A c10) | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 126 control systems and 863 regional systems.
Total connected: 126
Furthest Control: 26.478 LY
Furthest potential capture: 27.359 LY - may affect result if not defended
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-21 | 24.468 | 25.325 | Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1 | 25.141 | 22.820 | Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; | No |
| Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17 | 26.125 | 23.772 | Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6 | 26.660 | 18.572 | Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; | No |
| Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72 | 28.169 | 19.376 | Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; (backtrack HIP 35633)(backtrack Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5) | No |
| Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11 | 28.899 | 20.237 | Kurumanit (9.965 LY); (backtrack 19 Puppis)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6) | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-6 | 28.194 | 20.745 | HIP 38235; (backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16) | No |
| Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3 | 29.712 | 20.772 | Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2) | No |
| 19 Puppis | 26.617 | 20.853 | Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; | No |
| Asletae | 28.536 | 20.899 | Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6 | 28.669 | 21.146 | Mahlina; | No |
| Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7 | 27.830 | 21.191 | Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1) | No |
| Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-5 | 27.855 | 21.221 | Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5; | No |
| Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1 | 27.741 | 21.247 | Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8; | No |
| Col 285 Sector US-H b11-6 | 26.762 | 21.295 | Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3) | No |
| Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1 | 28.020 | 21.416 | Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0; (backtrack Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8) | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 80 control systems and 909 regional systems.
Total connected: 80
Furthest Control: 28.863 LY
Furthest potential capture: 31.792 LY - may affect result if not defended
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-3 | 23.422 | 24.952 | HIP 18705; | No |
| Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17 | 26.277 | 25.852 | Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18; | No |
| HIP 20489 | 28.684 | 24.220 | Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13 | 31.072 | 24.842 | Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5; | No |
| Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-81 | 29.906 | 25.395 | Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0; | No |
| Almar | 31.784 | 26.058 | Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2 | 32.455 | 26.122 | Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3; | No |
| Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3 | 35.161 | 27.471 | Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1; | No |
| Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15 | 35.033 | 28.185 | Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14; | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 127 control systems and 857 regional systems.
Total connected: 127
Furthest Control: 25.661 LY
Furthest potential capture: 27.115 LY - may affect result if not defended
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Vistnero | 21.009 | 19.751 | Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8 (9.976 LY); HIP 113535; etc | Yes |
| Holvandalla | 21.476 | 16.445 | Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc | Yes |
| Balak | 23.024 | 16.575 | Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785; etc | Yes |
| Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-7 | 25.598 | 17.434 | Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-19; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Jawul | 26.675 | 17.462 | Chinas; | Yes |
| Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-5 | 28.174 | 19.355 | Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4)(backtrack Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1) | No |
| Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-7 | 28.748 | 19.406 | Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3; | No |
| Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-0 | 28.109 | 19.747 | Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; (backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-2)(backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1) | No |
| Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-8 | 26.194 | 19.820 | Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-1) | No |
| Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3 | 27.885 | 19.988 | Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); (backtrack Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7) | No |
| Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7 | 26.930 | 20.143 | HIP 115162; (backtrack Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-4) | No |
| Ngolite | 26.894 | 20.342 | Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; (backtrack Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-1)(backtrack Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1)(backtrack Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SE-N a8-1) | Yes |
| Koko Oh | 27.066 | 20.431 | HIP 113535; (backtrack Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-2) | Yes |
| HR 8536 | 27.731 | 20.756 | Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-3) | No |
| Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1 | 27.855 | 20.888 | Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; | No |
| Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-4 | 28.704 | 21.106 | Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; (backtrack Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0) | No |
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Hadad
Read 110 control systems and 875 regional systems.
Total connected: 110
Furthest Control: 27.177 LY
Furthest potential capture: 30.573 LY - may affect result if not defended
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Neites | 25.943 | 21.112 | Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2; Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5; Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3; etc | Yes |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22 | 28.147 | 18.310 | Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY); | No |
| Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7 | 30.393 | 21.723 | Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7; | No |
| Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3 | 29.675 | 21.892 | Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0) | No |
| Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-1 | 30.811 | 22.792 | Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 (9.990 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7) | No |
| Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84 | 32.479 | 22.869 | Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1 (9.972 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-20) | No |
| Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-23 | 31.190 | 23.124 | HR 2138; (backtrack Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6) | No |
| HIP 28150 | 31.076 | 23.299 | Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OM-B b14-7) | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19 | 30.737 | 23.515 | Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6; | No |
| Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-8 | 30.470 | 23.674 | Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1 (9.962 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-0) | No |
| Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-20 | 32.232 | 23.734 | Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17; (backtrack HIP 32860) | No |
| Bagalya | 27.459 | 24.332 | Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5)(backtrack HIP 28183)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21) | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector ZY-X b15-8 | 30.307 | 24.456 | Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-4) | No |
| Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-2 | 33.266 | 25.118 | HIP 29217; | No |
| L2 Puppis | 33.069 | 25.273 | Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; (backtrack Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-2) | No |
| Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-3 | 30.598 | 25.303 | Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9; | No |
Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Leigong
-- Indra
Hyadum I:1
Ross 378:1
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3:1
HIP 20916:1
Lei Hsini:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 22524:1
-- Oya
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1:1
HIP 3006:1
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2:1
HIP 8525:1
Cephei Sector ZE-A c8:1
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4:1
HIP 36901:1
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4:1
-- Thor
HIP 19198:1
HIP 18075:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9:1
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9:1
HIP 116351:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-3:1
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31:1
HIP 32718:1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29:1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0:1Prediction updates:
Leigong again loses all Alerts (possibility of a Titan emergency Alert, though, as the rules for 3 Controls aren't completely clear - precedent would suggest more likely not, though)
Oya loses all but two Alerts
...and outer Alert successes in multiple locations change Cocijo through Hadad as follows:
Calculating Cocijo
Calculating Thor
Calculating Raijin
Calculating Hadad
Final results: this was a 6 Alert week again. Within the constraint that we still don't have a way of predicting "6 or 8", all predictions correct.
Leigong again loses all Alerts (possibility of a Titan emergency Alert, though, as the rules for 3 Controls aren't completely clear - precedent would suggest more likely not, though)
Oya loses all but two Alerts
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Aowicha | 23.769 | 15.711 | Daruwach; | Yes |
| Gliese 3050 | 25.579 | 18.853 | HIP 7338; | No |
...and outer Alert successes in multiple locations change Cocijo through Hadad as follows:
Calculating Cocijo
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-21 | 24.468 | 25.325 | Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1 | 25.141 | 22.820 | Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; | No |
| Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17 | 26.125 | 23.772 | Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; | No |
| Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3 | 26.581 | 21.295 | Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2; etc | No |
| 19 Puppis | 26.617 | 20.237 | Kurumanit (9.924 LY); Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; Mahlina; etc | No |
| HIP 37906 | 26.627 | 24.864 | Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5; | No |
| Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6 | 26.660 | 18.572 | Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc | No |
| Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6 | 26.697 | 21.191 | Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; etc | No |
| Col 285 Sector US-H b11-6 | 26.762 | 23.150 | Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2; HIP 39750; | No |
| Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7 | 26.793 | 20.745 | HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; | No |
| Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5 | 26.825 | 21.247 | Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8; | No |
| HIP 35633 | 26.842 | 19.376 | Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22; etc | No |
| Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17 | 26.920 | 22.001 | Hez Ur; | No |
| Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8 | 27.061 | 21.416 | Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0; | No |
| Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2 | 27.257 | 20.772 | Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Asletae | 28.536 | 20.899 | Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; | Yes |
Calculating Thor
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-3 | 23.422 | 24.952 | HIP 18705; | No |
| Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17 | 26.277 | 25.852 | Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18; | No |
| HIP 20489 | 28.684 | 24.220 | Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3; | No |
| Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-81 | 29.906 | 25.395 | Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0; | No |
| Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13 | 31.072 | 24.842 | Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14; | No |
| - | - | - | Control Sphere Edge | - |
| Almar | 31.784 | 26.058 | Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2 | 32.455 | 26.122 | Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3; | No |
| Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3 | 35.161 | 27.471 | Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1; | No |
| Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15 | 35.033 | 28.185 | Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14; | No |
Calculating Raijin
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Vistnero | 21.009 | 19.751 | Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8 (9.976 LY); HIP 113535; etc | Yes |
| Holvandalla | 21.476 | 16.445 | Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc | Yes |
| Balak | 23.024 | 16.575 | Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785; etc | Yes |
| Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-7 | 25.598 | 17.434 | Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-19; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6; | No |
| Aurus | 25.723 | 22.027 | Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4; etc | Yes |
| Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-1 | 25.760 | 19.820 | Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4; | No |
| Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0 | 25.901 | 21.106 | Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Tagin; etc | No |
| Pegasi Sector OE-N a8-2 | 25.969 | 21.377 | Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc | No |
| Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-5 | 26.018 | 21.116 | Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Iceniguari; Gl 886.1 B; etc | No |
| Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-3 | 26.050 | 20.342 | Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc | No |
| Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22 | 26.084 | 23.897 | Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; | No |
| Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0 | 26.084 | 20.143 | HIP 115162; Iceniguari; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; | No |
| Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-2 | 26.124 | 19.747 | Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etc | No |
| Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1 | 26.136 | 23.198 | HIP 117229; HIP 116542; | No |
| Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-2 | 26.139 | 21.584 | Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc | No |
| Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-1 | 26.164 | 20.431 | HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc | No |
Calculating Hadad
| Target | Target Distance | Control Distance | Attackers | Inhabited? |
| Neites | 25.943 | 21.112 | Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2; Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5; Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3; etc | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-0 | 27.414 | 23.674 | Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1; | No |
| Bagalya | 27.459 | 24.332 | Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7 | 27.907 | 22.792 | Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9; etc | No |
| Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0 | 27.984 | 21.892 | Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24; etc | No |
| Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-4 | 28.065 | 24.456 | Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5; | No |
| Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22 | 28.147 | 18.310 | Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY); Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; HIP 29217; etc | No |
| Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4 | 28.175 | 25.118 | HIP 29217; Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19; | No |
| HIP 32860 | 28.898 | 23.734 | Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17; | No |
| Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6 | 28.935 | 23.124 | HR 2138; | No |
| HIP 30260 | 29.014 | 26.055 | Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5; | Yes |
| Col 285 Sector OM-B b14-7 | 29.573 | 23.299 | Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11; | No |
| Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-2 | 29.632 | 25.273 | Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6; | No |
| Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3 | 29.675 | 27.100 | Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1; | No |
| Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10 | 29.779 | 22.869 | Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24; | No |
| Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7 | 30.393 | 21.723 | Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7; | No |
Final results: this was a 6 Alert week again. Within the constraint that we still don't have a way of predicting "6 or 8", all predictions correct.
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