Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Ian Doncaster · Mar 14, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 14 March

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Leigong shouldn't survive long enough to place further Alerts; it could place one from XJ-R b4-0 if it somehow survived the week, but would need to survive another week to make use of it. The formal prediction, however, is "destroyed".

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Calculating Indra
Read 96 control systems and 888 regional systems.
Total connected: 96

Furthest Control: 24.568 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20616	22.168	18.494	HIP 20397; 86 Rho Tauri (9.902 LY); 79 b Tauri; etc	Yes
HIP 19789	23.939	22.469	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0;	No
HIP 22566	24.386	22.610	Hyades Sector ON-S b4-6;	Yes
HIP 19757	24.520	17.955	HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	16.450	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY);	No
HIP 20605	26.362	17.089	HIP 20916 (9.975 LY); (backtrack 80 Tauri)	No
HIP 20019	25.583	17.820	HR 1354; (backtrack HR 1403)(backtrack 68 Tauri)	Yes
68 Tauri	26.123	17.871	HIP 20679; (backtrack HIP 21099)	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4	27.169	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2; (backtrack Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4)	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5	26.135	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; (backtrack Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3)	No
HIP 21380	26.610	18.554	HIP 20712; (backtrack 65 Kappa Tauri)(backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17	25.780	18.594	Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13;	No
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 22203)(backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; (backtrack Hyades Sector BR-J a10-0)(backtrack Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1)	Yes
HIP 20719	27.717	18.976	Hyadum II;	Yes
HIP 20826	27.682	19.444	79 b Tauri;	Yes

In a 6 Alert week, the first target outside the sphere doesn't place a backtrack so it only gets 5. In an 8-Alert week, all of the top 8 should go through.

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Calculating Oya
Read 33 control systems and 958 regional systems.
Total connected: 33

Furthest Control: 20.261 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.579 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Liu Hef	26.946	18.930	HIP 3006 (9.931 LY);	Yes
Cephei Sector ZE-A d69	27.472	19.896	Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; (backtrack Cephei Sector ZE-A c10)	No
47 Cassiopeiae	29.887	20.166	BD+77 84; (backtrack Cephei Sector HW-W b1-5)	Yes

Oya is back into being constrained again due to the loss of a substantial number of perimeter controls last week, and most of its other targets being on cooldown. It still has quite a large perimeter overall, though.

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 131 control systems and 857 regional systems.
Total connected: 131

Furthest Control: 27.359 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6	26.660	18.572	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc	No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6	26.697	21.191	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; etc	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-6	26.762	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2; HIP 39750;	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7	26.793	20.745	HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3;	No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5	26.825	21.247	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8;	No
HIP 35633	26.842	19.376	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22; etc	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17	26.920	22.001	Hez Ur;	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8	27.061	21.416	Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2	27.257	20.772	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3	29.643	20.034	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;	No
Asletae	28.536	20.899	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0;	Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11	28.899	21.146	Mahlina; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6)	Yes
Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-5	27.855	21.221	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116	28.102	21.760	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7)	No

A straightforward interior week at Cocijo even with 8 Alerts

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Calculating Thor
Read 87 control systems and 905 regional systems.
Total connected: 87

Furthest Control: 31.109 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector RM-C b13-1	20.968	17.094	HIP 19198;	No
Theemim	30.148	22.217	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3;	Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0	30.239	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1; Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2;	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-0	30.347	25.824	Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2; Synuefe OU-D b45-1;	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-3	30.565	31.109	Synuefe OU-D b45-1;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12	33.827	24.574	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80 (9.976 LY);	No
Almar	31.784	26.058	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3;	Yes
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2	32.455	26.122	Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3	35.161	27.471	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No
HIP 17310	33.067	28.863	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11	35.783	29.231	Varlawoth; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10)(backtrack Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1)	No

With not much in the way of backtracks available, Thor should get one fewer Alert than the available budget.

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Calculating Raijin
Read 132 control systems and 853 regional systems.
Total connected: 132

Furthest Control: 27.115 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0	25.901	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Tagin; etc	No
Pegasi Sector OE-N a8-2	25.969	21.377	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-5	26.018	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Iceniguari; etc	No
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-3	26.050	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	No
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22	26.084	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	No
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0	26.084	20.143	HIP 115162; Iceniguari; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-2	26.124	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1	26.136	18.935	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2; HIP 117229; HIP 116542; etc	No
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-2	26.139	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-1	26.164	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	No
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-8	26.194	24.579	Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-4	26.413	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3	26.607	21.196	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4	26.664	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-4	26.720	22.028	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Iceniguari (10.027 LY); Tagin; etc	No

A very straightforward interior week at Raijin

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Calculating Hadad
Read 118 control systems and 869 regional systems.
Total connected: 118

Furthest Control: 30.573 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 29596	18.225	13.345	Montioch; HR 2204; Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3; etc	Yes
Putas	23.050	18.466	Bi Dhorora;	Yes
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5	26.546	26.107	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1;	No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22	28.147	18.310	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY); Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; etc	No
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4	28.175	24.192	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; HIP 29217; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2; etc	No
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5	28.793	25.118	HIP 29217; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2;	No
HIP 32860	28.898	23.734	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17;	No
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6	28.935	23.124	HR 2138;	No
HIP 30260	29.014	26.055	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5;	Yes
Col 285 Sector OM-B b14-7	29.573	23.299	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11;	No
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-2	29.632	25.273	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6;	No
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3	29.675	27.100	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1;	No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10	29.779	22.869	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24;	No
Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-3	29.853	24.320	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-3;	No
HIP 28183	30.344	26.582	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2;	No
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	30.393	21.723	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7;	No

And also straightforwardly interior at Hadad

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Leigong
-- Indra
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4:1
HIP 21179:1
71 Tauri:1
HIP 21261:1
HIP 22350:1
HIP 20577:1
-- Oya
Daruwach:1
HIP 7338:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5:1
-- Thor
HIP 18705:1
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18:1
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3:1
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Kaurukat:1
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-19:1
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20:1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1:1
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6:1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4:1
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5:1

Ian Doncaster · Mar 21, 2024

Revised predictions

A recapture of Indra's most distant control moves the sphere inwards slightly - even accounting for last week's Alerts

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20616	22.168	18.494	HIP 20397; 86 Rho Tauri (9.902 LY); 79 b Tauri; etc	Yes
HIP 19789	23.939	22.469	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	16.450	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY);	No
HIP 20605	26.362	17.089	HIP 20916 (9.975 LY); (backtrack 80 Tauri)	No
HIP 20019	25.583	17.820	HR 1354; (backtrack HR 1403)(backtrack 68 Tauri)	Yes
HIP 21099	26.811	17.871	HIP 20679;	No
HIP 19757	24.520	17.955	HIP 20419; (backtrack Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2)	Yes
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4	27.169	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2; (backtrack Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4)	No
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4	25.474	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; (backtrack Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3)(backtrack Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5)	No
HIP 21380	26.610	18.554	HIP 20712; (backtrack 65 Kappa Tauri)(backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17	25.780	18.594	Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13;	No
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 22203)(backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; (backtrack Hyades Sector BR-J a10-0)(backtrack Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1)	Yes
HIP 20719	27.717	18.976	Hyadum II;	Yes
HIP 20826	27.682	19.444	79 b Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No

Exact targets are going to depend on the Alert budget for the week and which backtracks it makes usable.

Oya is reduced to zero Alert opportunities by the substantial counter-attack.

Hadad is also significantly cut back and should get just three Alerts

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 29596	18.225	13.345	Montioch; HR 2204; Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3; etc	Yes
Putas	23.050	18.466	Bi Dhorora;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22	28.147	18.310	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY);	No

EDIT: another six Alert week.
Backtrack to 68 Tauri is used at Indra; HIP 20679 the most likely attacker
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5 is skipped over at Cocijo (incorrect tracking of resting Controls is most likely, since the model for internal attacks seems solid)
All as expected otherwise

Jmanis · Mar 21, 2024

Not that it's likely to happen, but I'd love to see what happens if Thargoids take down a system with a Rescue Ship...

Ian Doncaster · Mar 21, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 21 March

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

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Calculating Indra
Read 96 control systems and 883 regional systems.
Total connected: 96

Furthest Control: 24.165 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.362 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20527	22.540	14.040	Hyadum I; 71 Tauri; HIP 20577; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 20719	27.717	17.806	HIP 20577 (9.953 LY); (backtrack 80 Tauri)	Yes
HIP 19757	24.520	17.955	HIP 20419; (backtrack Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2)	Yes
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4	27.169	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2; (backtrack Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4)	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5	26.135	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; (backtrack Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3)	No
HIP 21380	26.610	18.554	HIP 20712; (backtrack HR 1403)(backtrack 65 Kappa Tauri)(backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17	25.780	18.594	Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13;	No
80 Tauri	25.670	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 22203)(backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21474)	No
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; (backtrack Hyades Sector BR-J a10-0)(backtrack Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1)	Yes
HIP 20826	27.682	19.444	79 b Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.471	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; (backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0)	Yes
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-2	25.465	20.115	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3;	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No
HR 1403	24.664	20.241	HIP 21261; (backtrack Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2)(backtrack HIP 21099)(backtrack Ain)	Yes

Indra currently predicting mostly-external but will probably switch to entirely internal when the Alerts go through.

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Calculating Oya
Read 27 control systems and 965 regional systems.
Total connected: 27

Furthest Control: 18.346 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 11111	24.118	15.212	HIP 13179;	Yes
Poqomathi	24.136	17.750	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; (backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6)	Yes
HIP 2422	24.009	17.920	HIP 8525;	Yes

Oya back to having a fairly small perimeter due to cooldowns.

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 136 control systems and 851 regional systems.
Total connected: 136

Furthest Control: 27.359 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-0	24.793	25.325	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5	26.825	21.247	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8;	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17	26.920	22.001	Hez Ur;	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8	27.061	21.416	Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115;	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-0	27.131	24.864	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5; HIP 37906;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2	27.257	20.772	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3	29.643	20.034	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11	28.899	20.237	Kurumanit (9.965 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6)	Yes
Asletae	28.536	20.899	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0;	Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6	28.669	21.146	Mahlina;	No
Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-5	27.855	21.221	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116	28.102	21.760	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7)	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	21.832	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76)	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22	28.202	21.999	Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;	No
HIP 40229	28.302	22.551	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0;	No

6 Alerts would fill in the internals, if the budget goes back to eight to compensate for containment or destruction elsewhere, then a 7th is possible.

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Calculating Thor
Read 92 control systems and 900 regional systems.
Total connected: 92

Furthest Control: 31.109 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-4	27.307	23.422	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-3; HIP 18705;	No
HIP 18776	28.057	25.852	Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18;	No
HIP 19501	30.742	24.220	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3;	No
HIP 20509	30.900	28.684	HIP 20489;	Yes
Col 285 Sector KL-E b12-5	31.014	26.277	Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1	31.792	23.239	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12	33.827	24.574	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80 (9.976 LY);	No
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1	33.390	24.952	HIP 18705;	No
Almar	31.784	26.058	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3;	Yes
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2	32.455	26.122	Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3	35.161	27.471	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No
HIP 17310	33.067	28.863	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11	35.783	29.231	Varlawoth; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10)(backtrack Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1)	No

Five internal, so that should be all on a six-budget or two externals on an eight-budget as there's no backtracks

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 137 control systems and 848 regional systems.
Total connected: 137

Furthest Control: 27.115 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Nibelaako	22.263	16.841	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; etc	Yes
Isla	23.900	18.935	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542;	Yes
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-2	26.124	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1	26.136	23.198	HIP 117229; HIP 116542; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-6;	No
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-2	26.139	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-1	26.164	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	No
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-8	26.194	17.434	Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-19 (9.918 LY); Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110; etc	No
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-4	26.413	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3	26.607	21.196	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4	26.664	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-4	26.720	22.028	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Iceniguari (10.027 LY); Tagin; etc	No
Pegasi Sector OE-N a8-1	26.878	22.073	Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; Sugalis; etc	No
Ngolite	26.894	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7	26.930	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;	No
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0	26.940	24.565	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No

Raijin still working its way up the internal fill-in

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 97 control systems and 893 regional systems.
Total connected: 97

Furthest Control: 28.065 LY
Furthest potential capture: 28.147 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-18	23.842	18.367	Muruidooges;	No
Yukait	26.145	27.414	Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-0;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3	29.675	21.892	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4;	No
Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-1	30.811	22.792	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 (9.990 LY);	No
Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-8	30.470	23.674	Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1 (9.962 LY); (backtrack Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-0)	No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21	31.981	24.332	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5)(backtrack HIP 28183)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6)	No
Col 285 Sector ZY-X b15-8	30.307	24.456	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5; (backtrack HIP 32860)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10)	No
L2 Puppis	33.069	27.907	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7; (backtrack Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-2)(backtrack Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0)	No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-77	34.972	27.984	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-23)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-9)	No
HIP 32860	28.898	28.065	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZY-X b15-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-20)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector ZY-X b15-6)	No

Hadad's positioning a bit messed up by last week's sweep. On an eight Alert budget it'll get far enough to activate the backtrack to HIP 32860; on a six Alert budget it will spend five before it gets a usable backtrack.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
HIP 20397:1
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3:1
HIP 20480:1
HIP 20916:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 20679:1
-- Oya
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18:1
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4:1
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6:1
HIP 38235:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5:1
-- Thor
HIP 19198:1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2:1
Synuefe OU-D b45-1:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5:1
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2:1
HIP 115162:1
-- Hadad
Montioch:1
Bi Dhorora:1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2:1

Ian Doncaster · Apr 3, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 3 April

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Last week's prediction - apart from the unprecedented rise to 9 Alerts per maelstrom still able to place them - was accurate. Prediction this week late due to holiday, so includes the recaptures made so far, and also includes alternate predictions assuming no further Alert recaptures.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 101 control systems and 876 regional systems.
Total connected: 101

Furthest Control: 26.362 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4	24.294	22.469	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; HIP 19789;	No
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-2	25.465	20.115	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector LM-V b2-5;	No
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4	25.474	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2 (9.954 LY); Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13; etc	No
Hyades Sector BR-J a10-0	25.531	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; Hyades Sector FX-H a11-0;	No
HIP 19781	25.570	20.963	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector FL-X b1-1	25.610	23.939	HIP 19789 (9.928 LY);	No
80 Tauri	25.670	17.089	HIP 20916; HIP 20577; Hyadum II; etc	No
Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17	25.780	18.594	Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13; Hyades Sector PI-S b4-2;	No
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	20.093	HIP 22524; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; HIP 22688; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2	25.900	20.241	HIP 21261; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; etc	No
Arietis Sector JM-T a4-0	25.940	23.327	Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0;	No
Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1	26.006	26.286	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2;	No
Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3	26.020	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0;	No
Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2	26.106	20.227	Scythia;	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5	26.135	22.517	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0;	No
HIP 23069	26.339	21.702	Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; HIP 22688; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-3; etc	No

It'll take a pretty large Alert budget to get Indra out of internal targeting!

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
After recaptures, read 7 control systems (17 originally) and 971 regional systems.
Total connected: 7

Furthest Control: 8.228 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Even without further recaptures, Oya's next Alert opportunity will be AF-A c11 to Ardhri in 3 weeks, which will be a long-running Invasion, so its next chance to increase its Control count will be a bit further out.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 141 control systems and 842 regional systems.
Total connected: 141

Furthest Control: 27.359 LY
Furthest potential capture: 29.643 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-1	27.061	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72	28.169	19.376	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5)	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-6	28.194	20.745	HIP 38235; (backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16)	No
Asletae	28.536	20.899	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0;	Yes
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7	27.830	21.191	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1)	No
Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-5	27.855	21.221	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116	28.102	21.760	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	21.832	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76)	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22	28.202	21.999	Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;	No
HIP 40229	28.302	22.551	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69;	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-122	28.116	22.723	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6;	No
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152	29.517	22.820	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10)	No
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5	27.613	22.888	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4)	No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10	27.847	23.034	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106;	No

with those Alerts going through, Cocijo should have plenty of internal targeting available, like this:

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-1	27.061	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-2	27.457	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; HIP 39750; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-6;	No
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5	27.613	19.376	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22; etc	No
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1	27.741	21.191	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7;	No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7	27.830	21.760	Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-6; etc	No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10	27.847	23.034	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4;	No
Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-5	27.855	21.221	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-52; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-53; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12	28.061	22.820	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116	28.102	21.832	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; etc	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-122	28.116	22.723	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6;	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14	28.140	26.627	HIP 37906;	No
Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16	28.146	20.745	HIP 38235;	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72	28.169	22.888	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; HIP 36901; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6; etc	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-6	28.194	26.793	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22	28.202	21.999	Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109;	No
HIP 39409	28.262	23.233	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1;	No

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
After recaptures, read 92 control systems (95 originally) and 893 regional systems.
Total connected: 92

Furthest Control: 30.347 LY
Furthest potential capture: 33.827 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Unktety	25.357	17.094	HIP 19198;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Almar	31.784	26.058	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3;	Yes
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2	32.455	26.122	Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3	35.161	27.471	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3	36.005	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3)(backtrack HIP 17310)	No
HIP 17310	33.067	28.863	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11	35.783	29.231	Varlawoth; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10)(backtrack Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1)	No
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3	32.800	30.239	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0;	No

Thor, meanwhile, is actually quite short on targets

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Unktety	25.357	17.094	HIP 19198;	Yes
Almar	31.784	26.058	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	Yes
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2	32.455	26.122	Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3	32.800	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1; Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0;	No
HIP 17310	33.067	28.863	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2; Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0;	No
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0	33.419	29.231	Varlawoth;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3	35.161	27.471	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No

Moving the switch to internal targeting outwards actually loses Thor a potential Alert as its controls move in a less optimal order - plus, it'll need another nine Alert budget to get even eight through, whereas its previous layout allowed for a backtrack: a rare case where not stopping an outer Alert actually worsens their position.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 143 control systems and 840 regional systems.
Total connected: 143

Furthest Control: 27.115 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Wanmi	26.362	24.008	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; HIP 116542;	Yes
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4	26.664	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3	26.679	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	No
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-4	26.720	20.143	HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	No
Pegasi Sector OE-N a8-1	26.878	21.377	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Ngolite	26.894	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7	26.930	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0	26.940	24.565	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No
HIP 116052	26.961	24.644	Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-112;	No
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-3	26.974	22.250	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1	27.013	21.135	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4;	No
Koko Oh	27.066	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0	27.097	24.009	Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-7	28.748	19.406	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3;	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2	28.672	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; (backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-1)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4)	No

A sixteen-Alert budget seems unlikely even now! Internal targeting otherwise.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
After recaptures, read 84 control systems (89 originally) and 906 regional systems.
Total connected: 84

Furthest Control: 27.145 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Vogulu	20.728	13.345	Montioch; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Hadad is currently well surrounded by recovering systems, so won't be going anywhere very fast for a few weeks no matter how much budget it gets.

Code:

Bi Dhorora:2
Cephei Sector WO-A b3:2
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13:2
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-0:2
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5:2
Fotlandjera:2
HIP 10778:2
HIP 15415:2
HIP 21165:2
Kanus:2
Lhou Mans:2
Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16:2
Lyncis Sector WU-P b5-0:2
Niu Yun:2
Synuefe OU-D b45-1:2
Synuefe OU-D b45-3:2
Warnones:2
Yan Zangata:2
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
Hyadum I:1
Hyades Sector ON-S b4-6:1
HIP 20419:1
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0:1
HIP 20712:1
Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0:1
Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0:1
86 Rho Tauri:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4:1
-- Oya
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-8:1
Hez Ur:1
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5:1
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6:1
Kurumanit:1
Mahlina:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-3:1
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18:1
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3:1
HIP 20489:1
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3:1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80:1
HIP 18705:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7:1
HIP 117229:1
Chakma:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9:1
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-19:1
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5:1
-- Hadad

Ian Doncaster · Apr 4, 2024

Apart from Oya, predictions accurate.

Nevertheless, Oya does strongly suggest that the Thargoids are no longer intended to operate by any sort of deterministic rules, making the value of any future predictions extremely dubious. I'll put together this week's anyway and then see how things go from there.

Ian Doncaster · Apr 4, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 4 April

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 108 control systems and 870 regional systems.
Total connected: 108

Furthest Control: 26.362 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20492	24.043	15.082	71 Tauri; HIP 20577; 86 Rho Tauri; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9	24.594	24.920	37 A1 Tauri;	No
Arietis Sector KM-T a4-0	25.077	23.647	Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788;	No
Hyades Sector QI-S b4-2	25.285	16.600	HIP 21179; HIP 21475; Ross 378;	No
Arietis Sector KM-T a4-2	25.369	24.693	HIP 21788;	No
Arietis Sector DA-Z b3	25.437	21.389	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0; Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0; HIP 20482;	No
HIP 20019	25.583	17.806	HIP 20577; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2	25.900	20.241	HIP 21261; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; etc	No
Arietis Sector JM-T a4-0	25.940	23.327	Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0;	No
Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1	26.006	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2;	No
Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3	26.020	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0;	No
Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2	26.106	17.955	HIP 20419; Scythia;	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5	26.135	22.517	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0; HIP 20482;	No
HIP 23069	26.339	21.702	Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; HIP 22688; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-3; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 21099	26.811	17.871	HIP 20679;	No
HIP 21380	26.610	18.554	HIP 20712; (backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)	Yes

Indra is still working its way back towards its edge and would need a further increase in budget to reach it this week.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 7 control systems and 951 regional systems.
Total connected: 7

Furthest Control: 8.228 LY
Furthest potential capture: 49.097 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Assuming Oya survives the week, I predict placements of many further Alerts on all Engineers, Powerplay HQs and superpower capitals, as well as Explorers' Anchorage.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 153 control systems and 834 regional systems.
Total connected: 153

Furthest Control: 29.643 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3	27.875	26.491	Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3;	No
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1	28.020	21.416	Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0;	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-20	28.030	24.468	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-21; Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-0; Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-122	28.116	22.723	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6;	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14	28.140	26.627	HIP 37906;	No
Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16	28.146	20.745	HIP 38235; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-0;	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72	28.169	22.888	Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; HIP 36901; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6; etc	No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-6	28.194	24.864	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-0;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22	28.202	21.999	Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2 (9.969 LY);	No
HIP 39409	28.262	23.233	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1;	No
HIP 40229	28.302	22.551	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3;	No
HIP 37844	28.465	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4	28.506	27.257	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2;	No
Asletae	28.536	20.899	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Khwal; Picenile;	Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7	28.801	23.391	HIP 36901; Picenile;	No
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4	28.851	24.140	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6; Paitra; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0; etc	No

Plenty of room internally for Cocijo as well.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 97 control systems and 890 regional systems.
Total connected: 97

Furthest Control: 33.827 LY
Furthest potential capture: 35.161 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3	31.156	31.792	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	No
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1	33.636	28.057	HIP 18776;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1	35.769	28.684	HIP 20489;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16	34.883	30.742	HIP 19501;	No
Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-3	36.254	33.390	Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3	39.488	33.827	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17)(backtrack HIP 20807)	No

Thor is running out of conventionally usable perimeter, so is likely to attack the Pleiades instead.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 151 control systems and 832 regional systems.
Total connected: 151

Furthest Control: 27.115 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Nu Guang	19.330	11.760	Snoqui;	Yes
HIP 116052	26.961	24.644	Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-112;	No
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-3	26.974	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1	27.013	21.135	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4;	No
Koko Oh	27.066	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0	27.097	24.009	Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-4	27.428	18.935	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2;	No
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-7	28.748	19.406	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3;	No
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-0	28.109	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; (backtrack Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1)	No
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-2	28.793	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; (backtrack Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0)	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2	28.672	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; (backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-1)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4)	No
Pegasi Sector LN-S b4-0	28.571	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2;	No
HR 8536	27.731	20.756	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-3)	No
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1	27.855	20.888	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8;	No
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-4	28.704	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4	28.626	21.116	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; (backtrack Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1)	No

On a nine-Alert budget Raijin won't get a backtrack in time so will be limited to eight Alerts. This may cause it to attack Colonia instead.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 81 control systems and 914 regional systems.
Total connected: 81

Furthest Control: 24.118 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22	28.147	18.310	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY);	No
Neites	25.943	21.112	Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2;	Yes
H Puppis	25.935	23.453	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1;	Yes

Hadad is also short on perimeter. Placing Alerts in the Col 70 sector where they can't be prevented would allow it to strongly reinforce its position.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3:1
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3:1
70 Tauri:1
HIP 19789:1
HIP 20916:1
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13:1
HIP 22524:1
-- Oya
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5:1
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4:1
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106:1
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5:1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4:1
-- Thor
HIP 19198:1
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3:1
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2:1
Varlawoth:1
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Chinas:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2:1
HIP 115162:1
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4:1
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4:1
-- Hadad
Montioch:1

Ian Doncaster · Apr 11, 2024

A few recaptures at Hadad - the only prediction change is that the attacks at Neites and H Puppis are no longer conventionally possible.

EDIT: all conventional predictions correct this week.

Aleks Zuno · Apr 11, 2024

Two of such guard those populated systems, and the other ten should all represent reductions to the possible attackers in the upcoming week! Leaving M. Hadad with one attack should keep it out of Col 70, although with M. Thor and M. Oya also barely able to attack due to range, I predict a range increase and an external attack at WDS J05353-0522Ja,Jb.

Ian Doncaster · Apr 11, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 11 April

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 114 control systems and 865 regional systems.
Total connected: 114

Furthest Control: 26.362 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Kagutsuchi	22.496	20.115	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes
78 Theta-2 Tauri	24.568	17.089	HIP 20916; HIP 20679; 86 Rho Tauri; etc	No
HR 1403	24.664	17.820	HR 1354 (9.991 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	Yes
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	18.554	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; HIP 20890; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1	26.006	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2;	No
Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3	26.020	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0;	No
Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2	26.106	17.955	HIP 20419; Scythia;	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5	26.135	22.517	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0; HIP 20482; Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4;	No
HIP 23069	26.339	20.093	HIP 22524; Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; HIP 22688; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 21099	26.811	17.871	HIP 20679;	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4	27.169	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2;	No
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1	27.273	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3;	No
HIP 20719	27.717	18.976	Hyadum II;	Yes
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20826)	No
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No

Nine seems to be the Alert count for now, which would just be possible for Indra to keep internal. An increase to 11 would be needed to get an extra Alert here.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 9 control systems and 984 regional systems.
Total connected: 9

Furthest Control: 9.129 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Oya's conventional perimeter still holds.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 163 control systems and 825 regional systems.
Total connected: 163

Furthest Control: 29.643 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes
HIP 39409	28.262	23.233	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1;	No
HIP 40229	28.302	22.551	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3;	No
HIP 37844	28.465	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4	28.506	27.257	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2;	No
Asletae	28.536	20.899	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Khwal; Picenile;	Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7	28.801	23.391	HIP 36901; Picenile;	No
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4	28.851	24.140	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6; Paitra; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10	28.888	22.820	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3	29.035	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17;	No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4	29.235	23.190	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	No
Laumas	29.269	24.329	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6;	Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-0	29.280	23.548	Canaharvas; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7	29.293	25.105	Desurinbin;	No
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-2	29.492	26.793	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7 (9.933 LY); Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1;	No
HIP 37520	29.500	26.660	Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22;	Yes

Cocijo retains a lot of usable internal space

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 102 control systems and 885 regional systems.
Total connected: 102

Furthest Control: 35.161 LY
Furthest potential capture: 39.488 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector QX-U d2-47	33.316	32.800	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10	34.382	29.231	Varlawoth;	No
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1	34.612	33.419	Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3	36.005	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5	40.031	32.455	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4)	No
Auaker	35.539	35.161	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3;	Yes

With only six possible targets Thor should take all of them regardless of success in its outer Alerts this week, though there is room for the target of HF-G b11-2 to change.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 157 control systems and 826 regional systems.
Total connected: 157

Furthest Control: 27.115 LY
Furthest potential capture: 28.748 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 117177	24.758	21.188	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Kuruma;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-5	28.174	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3)(backtrack Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1)	No
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-0	28.109	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; (backtrack Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1)	No
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-2	28.793	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; (backtrack Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0)	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2	28.672	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; (backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-1)(backtrack Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4)	No
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY);	No
Pegasi Sector LN-S b4-0	28.571	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2;	No
Pegasi Sector SE-N a8-1	29.213	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; (backtrack Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3)	No
HR 8536	27.731	20.756	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-3)	No
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1	27.855	20.888	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8;	No
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-4	28.704	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4	28.626	21.116	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; (backtrack Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1)	No
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-3	27.377	21.196	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5;	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-4	29.717	21.214	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; (backtrack Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-2)	No
Pegasi Sector RP-L a9-5	30.960	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; (backtrack Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-4)	No
Pegasi Sector SK-L a9-2	30.350	21.377	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; (backtrack Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-5)	No

Raijin gets some early backtracks so should get to use the full budget. If this remains at 9, then HR 8536 gets skipped in favour of XQ-J a10-1 as the first usable backtrack.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 69 control systems and 922 regional systems.
Total connected: 69

Furthest Control: 24.118 LY
Furthest potential capture: 28.147 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7	21.723	15.882	Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-0;	No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	22.869	15.344	HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0; etc	No
HR 2138	23.124	18.869	Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1;	No
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11	23.299	17.369	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10;	No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6	23.515	18.841	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	23.734	20.418	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-7	25.952	17.395	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9)	No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9	25.303	17.550	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;	No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8	25.273	17.571	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12;	No
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	24.192	17.575	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;	No
HIP 29217	25.118	17.633	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;	No
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5	26.055	18.036	Vasupari (9.991 LY);	No
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19	26.984	19.632	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5;	No
HIP 32718	27.177	20.046	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1)	No
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79	29.740	20.607	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8 (9.951 LY);	No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0	26.730	20.783	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3;	No

Hadad's perimeter comes off its earlier cooldown with an early backtrack available, to allow nine Alerts in the absence of further action.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
71 Tauri:1
37 A1 Tauri:1
Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0:1
HIP 21179:1
HIP 21788:1
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0:1
HIP 20577:1
HIP 21261:1
Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0:1
-- Oya
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5:1
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0:1
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-21:1
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6:1
HIP 37906:1
HIP 38235:1
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5:1
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1:1
HIP 18776:1
HIP 20489:1
HIP 19501:1
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12:1
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-112:1
Chakma:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4:1
HIP 113535:1
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2:1

Ian Doncaster · Apr 18, 2024

Quite a few prediction changes from Control recaptures or Alerts extending the sphere

Calculating Indra
After recaptures, read 109 control systems (114 originally) and 865 regional systems.
Total connected: 109

Furthest Control: 25.531 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Kagutsuchi	22.496	20.115	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes
78 Theta-2 Tauri	24.568	17.089	HIP 20916; HIP 20679; 86 Rho Tauri; etc	No
HR 1403	24.664	17.820	HR 1354 (9.991 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	Yes
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	18.554	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; HIP 20890; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 21099	26.811	17.871	HIP 20679;	No
Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2	26.106	17.955	HIP 20419;	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4	27.169	17.960	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2;	No
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5	26.135	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; (backtrack Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3)	No
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1	27.273	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3;	No
HIP 20719	27.717	18.976	Hyadum II;	Yes
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20826)	No
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
HIP 21380	26.610	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4 (9.996 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1)(backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0)	Yes
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No

The backtrack to IH-U b3-3 is usable, by NN-S b4-0 off the bottom of the chart, so a 9 budget will allow all 9.
-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
After recaptures, read 0 control systems (9 originally) and 984 regional systems.
Total connected: 0

Furthest Control: 0.000 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Shouldn't be able to place a Titan Alert this week, could do something weirder of course.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 163 control systems and 825 regional systems.
Total connected: 163

Furthest Control: 29.643 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes
HIP 39409	28.262	23.233	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1;	No
HIP 40229	28.302	22.551	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3;	No
HIP 37844	28.465	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4	28.506	27.257	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2;	No
Asletae	28.536	20.899	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Khwal; Picenile;	Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7	28.801	23.391	HIP 36901; Picenile;	No
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4	28.851	24.140	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6; Paitra; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10	28.888	22.820	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3	29.035	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17;	No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4	29.235	23.190	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	No
Laumas	29.269	24.329	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6;	Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-0	29.280	23.548	Canaharvas; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7	29.293	25.105	Desurinbin;	No
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-2	29.492	26.793	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7 (9.933 LY); Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1;	No
HIP 37520	29.500	26.660	Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22;	Yes

Cocijo extends its shell to get a very clear internal week on almost any budget

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 102 control systems and 885 regional systems.
Total connected: 102

Furthest Control: 39.488 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector QX-U d2-47	33.316	32.800	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10	34.382	29.231	Varlawoth;	No
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1	34.612	33.419	Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0;	No
Auaker	35.539	35.161	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3;	Yes
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3	36.005	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5	36.829	32.455	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Thor's success on Alerts switches all its possible attacks to internal - though its perimeter remains fairly small.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 157 control systems and 826 regional systems.
Total connected: 157

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 117177	24.758	21.188	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Kuruma;	Yes
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0	27.186	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; etc	No
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104	27.209	24.932	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3	27.266	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4;	No
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d101	27.269	24.565	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4; Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0;	No
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-3	27.377	20.756	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	21.935	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	21.116	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	24.384	HIP 113076;	No
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	22.028	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Tagin; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3;	No
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	22.349	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 (9.980 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Tagin; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No
HR 8536	27.731	25.772	Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0;	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1	27.817	21.946	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	No

Raijin also extends its shell to ensure plenty of internal targets.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
After recaptures, read 57 control systems (69 originally) and 922 regional systems.
Total connected: 56
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6	19.58933862

Furthest Control: 24.118 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	22.869	15.344	HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0;	No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6	23.515	18.841	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-7	25.952	17.395	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9)	No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9	25.303	17.550	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;	No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8	25.273	17.571	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12;	No
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	24.192	17.575	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;	No
HIP 29217	25.118	17.633	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;	No

Hadad gets an early backtrack but the perimeter is probably small enough to use up the entire budget anyway

Ian Doncaster · Apr 18, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 18 April

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Last week's predictions all accurate. Given the rate it's collapsing at, I don't think there's any need to predict Oya; if it does anything further it won't be conventional!

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 111 control systems and 872 regional systems.
Total connected: 111

Furthest Control: 25.531 LY
Furthest potential capture: 27.169 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Obamumbo	18.655	14.788	HIP 19263; Gaezatorix (9.996 LY); Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1; etc	Yes
HIP 20485	21.436	11.826	63 Tauri; 64 Tauri; Hyadum I; etc	Yes
HIP 20527	22.540	14.040	Hyadum I; 71 Tauri; HIP 20577; etc	Yes
HIP 20948	23.542	17.806	HIP 20577; Hyadum II; HIP 21261; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 21474	27.124	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack 80 Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1	27.273	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3;	No
HIP 20719	27.717	18.976	Hyadum II;	Yes
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20826)	No
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
HIP 21380	26.610	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4 (9.996 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1)(backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0)	Yes
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No
Ain	28.634	20.241	HIP 21261 (10.025 LY);	No
91 Sigma-1 Tauri	29.419	20.629	77 Theta-1 Tauri; (backtrack HIP 20850)(backtrack 57 h Tauri)(backtrack HIP 21317)(backtrack 89 Tauri)(backtrack 85 Tauri)(backtrack 81 Tauri)(backtrack 83 Tauri)	Yes
48 Tauri	27.453	20.963	70 Tauri;	Yes
Hyades Sector BC-I a11-1	29.648	21.108	Lei Hsini; (backtrack Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1)(backtrack Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1)	No

Plenty of chance for 9 alerts with the backtrack, probably gets the full amount under a lot of combinations of recaptures and defences too.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 172 control systems and 817 regional systems.
Total connected: 172

Furthest Control: 29.643 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5	27.816	28.140	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3	29.035	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17;	No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4	29.235	23.190	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	No
Laumas	29.269	24.329	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6;	Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-0	29.280	23.548	Canaharvas; Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7	29.293	25.105	Desurinbin;	No
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-2	29.492	24.864	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7 (9.933 LY); Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1; etc	No
HIP 37520	29.500	26.660	Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22;	Yes
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-3	29.507	26.325	Njana;	No
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152	29.517	25.367	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76	29.600	21.832	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3	29.712	20.772	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal;	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18	29.970	22.001	Hez Ur;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69;	No

Creeping back up towards the new perimeter but probably won't get there this week.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 109 control systems and 880 regional systems.
Total connected: 109

Furthest Control: 39.488 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3	22.346	18.643	Vaipacnali;	No
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-81	29.906	24.574	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80; Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0;	No
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2	33.525	34.883	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16;	No
HIP 18702	34.834	31.156	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3; Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	Yes
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No
Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2	35.479	31.792	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17	35.486	33.827	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12;	No
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2	35.830	35.769	Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1;	No
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0	36.367	33.636	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-2	36.906	36.254	Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-3;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-0	43.361	39.488	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15)	No

Thor is finally starting to get enough perimeter that its budget might be the limiting factor. Lots of in-fill this week, though.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 164 control systems and 822 regional systems.
Total connected: 164

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Isla	23.900	18.935	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542; HIP 116052; etc	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0;	Yes
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	21.135	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; HIP 113076;	No
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	22.028	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Tagin; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	22.349	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 (9.980 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Tagin; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No
HR 8536	27.731	25.772	Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0;	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1	27.817	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-2	27.839	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1	27.855	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etc	No
Tvasu	27.856	24.384	HIP 113076;	Yes
Hosan	27.877	25.760	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-1;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Maribe	27.923	22.027	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-1	27.979	22.274	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-3; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7; Balak; etc	No

Plenty of internal targets at Indra

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 57 control systems and 931 regional systems.
Total connected: 56
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6	19.58933862

Furthest Control: 24.118 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.952 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Muruidooges	18.367	9.378	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Montioch; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4	21.892	17.626	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1	23.674	19.276	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19	26.984	18.310	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1)	No

Relatively few targets available, and the exact position of the perimeter shouldn't make that much difference to it getting them

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3:1
HIP 20916:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 20712:1
HIP 20679:1
HIP 20419:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1:0
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2:1
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0:1
HIP 36901:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6:1
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3:1
Varlawoth:1
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0:1
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4:1
-- Hadad
HIP 31223:1
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12:1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4:1
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2:1

Aleks Zuno · Apr 23, 2024

I have a planning question! Just to be sure I am applying the best-known rules, suppose that:

M. Hadad week 73 completions are everything we have now plus Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-0 and Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2.
M. Hadad week 74 clears HR 2204 plus the full periphery with everything from Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7 outwards, including both Spires and both Alerts.

Having done that, week 74 should then be forced to use outer attacks, where it seems we may need a bit of finesse to be sure we get at most three Alerts rather than four, given possible interactions with Montioch and Col 285 Sectors RH-B b14-4 and RH-B b14-5.

If I recall, present theory would suggest:

Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0 attacks Bi Dhorora, just as with an outer attack.
Montioch ignores the farther Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3 for the higher-priority Vogulu.
Omumba attacks Fotlandjera.

In missing Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3, I think that means only Vogulu is attacked, despite Col 285 Sectors RH-B b14-4 and RH-B b14-5 also seeing Vogulu while only Montioch can see Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3. One way or another though, is it correct to expect three Alerts at Bi Dhorora, Vogulu and Fotlandjera given those events?

Notably even in the version of events I once suggested but for which we have not the time to check against previous weeks:

Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0 reveals Bi Dhorora, but Montioch attacks it.
Omumba reveals and attacks Fotlandjera.
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5 reveals Vogulu and Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4 attacks it.

Given enough clearance help, I suppose a very interesting test of that is if we can remove also Col 285 Sectors RH-B b14-4 and RH-B b14-5 in addition to HR 2204. Classically that would leave only Montioch to choose Vogulu over Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3, but if backtracks are actually attack-stealers then Montioch would steal Bi Dhorora and we would see only two Alerts total, an interesting blunder if it occurs.

Ian Doncaster · Apr 23, 2024

Yes, I think that's right. Outer attacks prioritising inhabited over uninhabited seems without exception, so with each system working outwards only having a single inhabited target by the time it gets to its turn, those get attacked and TS-Z b14-3 gets ignored.

Ian Doncaster · Apr 25, 2024

Prediction update based on human action: no change anywhere except Hadad

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Muruidooges	18.367	9.378	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Montioch; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4	21.892	17.626	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Ian Doncaster · Apr 25, 2024

Predictions all correct except for Indra, where after the 4 internal attacks:
- 86 Rho Tauri (probably) attacks 80 Tauri instead of the more distant HIP 21474
- Hyades Sector CR-J a10-1 attacked as expected
- HIP 20719 attacked as expected
- 79 b Tauri doesn't attack
- Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 doesn't attack
- Arietis NS-R a5-1 attacked by (probably) Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4 again picking a closer target. Interestingly this is a selection of an uninhabited system over an inhabited one, so possibly HIP 21380 was out of range?
- no ninth alert because both of the ones which could have placed backtracks instead attacked their closest possible target.

There's a lot to potentially explain there - especially since the existing model has worked fully at Indra in recent weeks.

Aleks Zuno · Apr 25, 2024

Were there not six inner attacks at M. Indra? We noticed that two Alerts were cleared in the last hour at Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4 and HR 1403, but that leaves systems such as Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2 and Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5 entering Control and raising the radius.

Ian Doncaster · Apr 25, 2024

Yes - that was it: I didn't properly set the outer radius for Indra based on which Alerts actually went through. Thanks!

Ian Doncaster · Apr 25, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 25 April

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first six would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Following data corrections, the model seems to have worked fine at Indra after all. No changes this week, though as the Titans fall or get contained another rise in baseline Alert budget is a possibility.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 113 control systems and 871 regional systems.
Total connected: 113

Furthest Control: 26.135 LY
Furthest potential capture: 27.273 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 19157	21.650	15.097	Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;	Yes
HIP 21918	22.272	16.600	HIP 21179; HIP 21475; Ross 378; etc	Yes
HIP 20491	23.341	15.974	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20480; HIP 20712; etc	Yes
HIP 20056	23.677	17.820	HR 1354; HIP 20679; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; etc	Yes
HIP 21946	24.111	20.241	HIP 21261; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20890; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector KM-T a4-0	25.077	23.647	Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788;	No
Hyades Sector QI-S b4-2	25.285	18.346	HIP 21475; Ross 378;	No
Arietis Sector KM-T a4-2	25.369	24.693	HIP 21788;	No
HIP 20019	25.583	17.871	HIP 20679; 77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; etc	Yes
Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2	25.900	22.851	Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; Hyades Sector DX-H a11-1;	No
Arietis Sector JM-T a4-0	25.940	23.327	Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 21380	26.610	18.554	HIP 20712; (backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)	Yes
HIP 20826	27.682	19.444	79 b Tauri; (backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0	26.751	19.514	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 (9.900 LY);	No
Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4	29.433	20.093	HIP 22524; (backtrack HIP 23069)	No
Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1	29.811	20.227	Scythia (9.915 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)	No

This time the potential Alerts are far enough out that they'll only matter if some outer controls get retaken. A lot of previous invasion defences are coming off cooldown in the inner regions this week.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 178 control systems and 809 regional systems.
Total connected: 178

Furthest Control: 29.643 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3	27.875	26.491	Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3;	No
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152	29.517	22.820	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; etc	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76	29.600	21.832	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3	29.712	20.772	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal;	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18	29.970	22.001	Hez Ur;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69;	No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-1	32.062	23.098	Vucumatha;	No
Col 285 Sector WD-G b12-0	31.821	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-5)	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-4	31.025	24.101	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2;	No
Daisla	31.962	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-2)	Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.162	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4;	Yes
HIP 39186	33.590	24.209	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; (backtrack HIP 39468)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1)	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-4	32.157	24.231	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2)	No

No backtracks for quite a while, so budget-minus-one seems likely.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 110 control systems and 876 regional systems.
Total connected: 110

Furthest Control: 39.488 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 18857	24.616	21.811	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0	30.239	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1; Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2; Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3; etc	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-0	30.347	25.824	Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13	31.072	24.842	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;	No
Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89	32.772	31.784	Almar;	No
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-1	34.543	32.800	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11	35.783	29.231	Varlawoth; Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0;	No
Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-2	36.906	36.254	Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-3;	No
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3	37.902	32.455	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-0	43.361	39.488	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15)	No

Thor just has space for nine inner Alerts right now, though recaptures do have room to change that quite a bit.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 171 control systems and 815 regional systems.
Total connected: 171

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Holvandalla	21.476	16.445	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes
Aurus	25.723	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes
Wanmi	26.362	24.008	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; HIP 116542; HIP 116052; etc	Yes
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes
Ngolite	26.894	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-2	27.839	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1	27.855	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etc	No
Tvasu	27.856	24.384	HIP 113076;	Yes
Hosan	27.877	25.760	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-1;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Maribe	27.923	22.027	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-1	27.979	22.274	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-3; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-7; Balak; etc	No
Attada	28.009	24.009	Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3; etc	Yes
HIP 117762	28.015	23.198	HIP 117229;	No
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-0	28.088	24.019	HIP 116542; Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1;	Yes
HIP 113698	28.090	22.038	Iduni; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6; Kamato;	No

Plenty of internal targets - and like Indra, plenty of populated targets coming back off cooldown.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 50 control systems and 945 regional systems.
Total connected: 50

Furthest Control: 24.118 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Bi Dhorora	18.466	9.685	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Montioch; Omumba; etc	Yes
Fotlandjera	19.687	13.599	Omumba;	Yes
Vogulu	20.728	13.345	Montioch; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	15.462	HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6	22.792	17.395	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1	24.332	17.575	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;	No

Hadad also looking at a lot of inhabited attacks this week as it turns back to the one bit of the cluster which has a lot of inhabited systems.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
HIP 19263:1
63 Tauri:1
Hyadum I:1
HIP 20577:1
86 Rho Tauri:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4:1
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3:1
Hyadum II:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2:1
Canaharvas:1
Desurinbin:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5:1
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6:1
Njana:1
-- Thor
Vaipacnali:1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16:1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14:1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1:1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12:1
Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1:1
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4:1
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9:1
Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0:1
Chakma:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3:1

Ian Doncaster · May 2, 2024

Prediction updates:
Boundary change at Indra but unless the Alert budget is boosted to 13 it won't affect the outcome.

Boundary change at Cocijo does change the ordering a bit

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3	27.875	26.491	Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3	29.712	20.772	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal;	No
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	21.832	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76)	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18	29.970	22.001	Hez Ur;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69;	No
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152	29.517	22.820	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-0;	No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-1	32.062	23.098	Vucumatha;	No
Col 285 Sector WD-G b12-0	31.821	23.150	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-5)	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-4	32.157	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5)	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-4	31.025	24.101	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2;	No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-2)(backtrack Daisla)	No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.162	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4;	Yes
HIP 39186	33.590	24.209	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; (backtrack HIP 39468)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1)	No
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	24.231	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;	No

Hadad's remaining attacks now all external

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Bi Dhorora	18.466	9.685	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0;	Yes
Vogulu	20.728	13.345	Montioch; (backtrack Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3)	Yes
Fotlandjera	19.687	13.599	Omumba;	Yes

EDIT: all as expected except at Cocijo.
SS-H b11-0 doesn't attack RS-H b11-3 - instead the next attack of Vucumatha to VY-F b12-1 happens.
Backtrack to OS-T d3-76 from (probably) OS-T d3-115 then gives a ninth attack as expected.

This could be a mistracking of attackers - SS-H b11-2 and b11-3 are marked as having attacked last week, but it's possible that SS-H b11-0 did instead due to an earlier miscalculation, and then whichever of -2 or -3 didn't attack would be too distant to get priority to attack this time. If so, with no other attacks in that part of Cocijo this week, the error will hopefully now have settled out.