Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

[Kira Goto]

So, while this might not be particularly/as important to the gameplay side or inner workings of the Thargoid ‘BGS’, I was thinking about the spires and placements again today. Initially, I used to think that the number of them was strictly related to the size of a Titan’s control sphere at the time of barnacle matrix creation back in August 3308/2023, but upon closer inspection, that does not actually appear to be the case. Or, at least, does not match perfectly with some of them.

The numbers, as I pulled them from DCoH using the ‘past cycles’ view for Jul27-Aug03 2023 :

Cocijo - 138 systems, 5 spires

Hadad - 65 systems, 6 spires

Indra - 150 systems, 8 spires

Leigong - 105 systems, 6 spires

Oya - 29 systems, 2 spires

Raijin - 141 systems, 7 spires

Taranis - 58 systems, 7 spires

Thor - 91 systems, 4 spires

Needless to say, Taranis is the extreme outlier for placing 7 of the spires while having a control sphere not even half the size of Raijin’s at the time, while Cocijo decided to be content with a modest 5.

I could have explained it away with some handwaving around the threshold between “less spires/barnacles” and “more of them” being only a few systems, but that doesn’t work when looking at Thor and Hadad as well. Nevermind that Taranis and Cocijo disprove it already anyway.

So… any bright ideas?

 

[Aleks Zuno]

So… any bright ideas?

Aside from noting that the only important factor was the position of the nearest site until after destroying T. Hadad fourth, and it is only since T. Thor sixth that the original Spires were too few—surely such a search begins with comparing the selected planets with lists of all possible planets around each Titan.

That has the potential to be a lot to consider, although it has some constraints at least:

• System must be empty.
• System must have been Thargoid-controlled at the moment of update 16.
• Planet must be landfall.
• Planet must have atmosphere.

We could also hypothesise some more constraints which could have been the case:

• Gravity—highest seems to be Hyades Sector HW-M b7-1 5 with 0.63 g, so a possible limit could have been two-thirds.
• Supercruise distance—highest seems to be Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-4 C 2 with 8888 Ls, possibly from a 10000 Ls limit.

I would not want to be the one to compile such a planet list, yet I think it would be needed just to answer the question of whether the Spire amounts correlate more with eligible planets than with Thargoid-controlled systems! Obviously the latter affects the former, but the point was about the poor correlation with the latter as opposed to something such as the former.

 

[Jmanis]

So, while this might not be particularly/as important to the gameplay side or inner workings of the Thargoid ‘BGS’, I was thinking about the spires and placements again today. Initially, I used to think that the number of them was strictly related to the size of a Titan’s control sphere at the time of barnacle matrix creation back in August 3308/2023, but upon closer inspection, that does not actually appear to be the case. Or, at least, does not match perfectly with some of them.

The numbers, as I pulled them from DCoH using the ‘past cycles’ view for Jul27-Aug03 2023 :

Cocijo - 138 systems, 5 spires

Hadad - 65 systems, 6 spires

Indra - 150 systems, 8 spires

Leigong - 105 systems, 6 spires

Oya - 29 systems, 2 spires

Raijin - 141 systems, 7 spires

Taranis - 58 systems, 7 spires

Thor - 91 systems, 4 spires

Needless to say, Taranis is the extreme outlier for placing 7 of the spires while having a control sphere not even half the size of Raijin’s at the time, while Cocijo decided to be content with a modest 5.

I could have explained it away with some handwaving around the threshold between “less spires/barnacles” and “more of them” being only a few systems, but that doesn’t work when looking at Thor and Hadad as well. Nevermind that Taranis and Cocijo disprove it already anyway.

So… any bright ideas?

Metagaming, but possibly just FD prerogative ?

What i mean by this is best explained through Barnacles...

If you look through the stats for all barnacles, there's a definite set of conditions which need to be met for barnacles to spawn.

The exception to this are the ones in Merope. I'd need to confirm but compared to the rest they're a complete outlier and don't match... this is likely a by-product of FD , after making the probe/ sensor point to 5C and the system respectively, deciding to plonk some there for players to find (i.e FD probably hand placed them.) Eventually, many more started to be found all over the Pleiades and other nebula, but all these match the rules.

This suggests an MO for "reveal with hand crafted things, then use rules to do the rest).

Taranis was the first Titan on the scene, and so maybe key parts of it's behaviours were hand- crafted rather than dynamic according to rules like the other Titans.

 

[Kira Goto]

If there are rules to it beyond the requirement for a thin atmospheric planet (if we ignore it as an Odyssey exclusive feature) for the purposes of cooling the machinery (and the obvious “Has to be a control system”), it certainly is not as straightforward as I thought, given the inability to conclusively tie control sphere size at time of U16, to the number of spires/barnacle matrix locations which appeared.

I would have guessed material composition may play a role, but I haven’t checked what they are for the existing locations (I’m sure Canonn has at some point), to see whether they correspond to a particular set or the G4 raw material(s) which can be found at those worlds. One of those would be substantially easier to tell than the other.

Another guess which occurred to me was player resistance to a Titan’s expansion but then Oya sits there with its 2 spires despite other systems in its control sphere which could have hosted a spire yet… do not for some reason. (Or, I suppose, did not, given that it’s now just a freezing wreck in space) And, as we know, quite active player opposition throughout most of its presence.

(It also is not particularly evident what the benefit of having the spires was to the Thargoids, because it seems to only have served as a mechanism of uprooting Titans to players, with no obvious impact on them when isolated - see Taranis - on Titan damage resistance - Oya was still at High with 7 controls and an active spire site, while Hadad was not affected in its vulnerability by one remaining active during the assault - or really system strength either.)

But…

If you look through the stats for all barnacles, there's a definite set of conditions which need to be met for barnacles to spawn.

If you wouldn’t mind telling, what are those spawn conditions? My superficial understanding is that they have to/seem to be near a nebula or inside of one, but I’ve never looked at it more closely. (Or a record of known barnacles and planetary conditions of the worlds on which they are located.)

 

[Jmanis]

If you wouldn’t mind telling, what are those spawn conditions? My superficial understanding is that they have to/seem to be near a nebula or inside of one, but I’ve never looked at it more closely. (Or a record of known barnacles and planetary conditions of the worlds on which they are located.)

Unfortunately, with the changes which introduced new exploration mechanics, a lot of those conditions are lost as it's now just "Scan planet, are there barnies Y/N?"... as the spreadsheets which contained that information are either retired/no longer exist, or simply don't have that info anymore.

IIRC it had to do with gravity, temperature, presence of an ammonia world / ammonia gas giant and a few other things, and lastly (the point I hate the most about exploration), the sector of the galaxy you're in. If you take a rough sample of planets, iirc it's something like low gravity (~0.20 give or take a couple points), Temperature (250-350K rings a bell, maybe tighter?)

Your best bet would be to just collate that information from known barnie worlds, but pay particular attention to Merope, Maia and other core pleiades systems. I think Merope is fine actually, but Maia is the one that stuck out?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

to see whether they correspond to a particular set or the G4 raw material(s) which can be found at those worlds

Material presence I checked at the time and none were particularly interesting by either their presence or absence.
No requirement for particular atmosphere types, very wide temperature range observed, wide variety of primary star classes too.

Low surface gravity might be a requirement but is already a "soft" requirement to have a tenuous atmosphere in the first place.
Similarly low supercruise distance might just have been Frontier being nice in the pre-SCO period but it hardly limits their choice of planets anyway.

I'm inclined towards "they were hand-placed" - especially since they've made no move to place additional ones when capturing further territory.

 

[Felix DiCestria]

Aside from noting that the only important factor was the position of the nearest site until after destroying T. Hadad fourth, and it is only since T. Thor sixth that the original Spires were too few—surely such a search begins with comparing the selected planets with lists of all possible planets around each Titan.

That has the potential to be a lot to consider, although it has some constraints at least:

• System must be empty.
• System must have been Thargoid-controlled at the moment of update 16.
• Planet must be landfall.
• Planet must have atmosphere.

We could also hypothesise some more constraints which could have been the case:

• Gravity—highest seems to be Hyades Sector HW-M b7-1 5 with 0.63 g, so a possible limit could have been two-thirds.
• Supercruise distance—highest seems to be Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-4 C 2 with 8888 Ls, possibly from a 10000 Ls limit.

I would not want to be the one to compile such a planet list, yet I think it would be needed just to answer the question of whether the Spire amounts correlate more with eligible planets than with Thargoid-controlled systems! Obviously the latter affects the former, but the point was about the poor correlation with the latter as opposed to something such as the former.

If there are rules to it beyond the requirement for a thin atmospheric planet (if we ignore it as an Odyssey exclusive feature) for the purposes of cooling the machinery (and the obvious “Has to be a control system”), it certainly is not as straightforward as I thought, given the inability to conclusively tie control sphere size at time of U16, to the number of spires/barnacle matrix locations which appeared.

I would have guessed material composition may play a role, but I haven’t checked what they are for the existing locations (I’m sure Canonn has at some point), to see whether they correspond to a particular set or the G4 raw material(s) which can be found at those worlds. One of those would be substantially easier to tell than the other.

Another guess which occurred to me was player resistance to a Titan’s expansion but then Oya sits there with its 2 spires despite other systems in its control sphere which could have hosted a spire yet… do not for some reason. (Or, I suppose, did not, given that it’s now just a freezing wreck in space) And, as we know, quite active player opposition throughout most of its presence.

(It also is not particularly evident what the benefit of having the spires was to the Thargoids, because it seems to only have served as a mechanism of uprooting Titans to players, with no obvious impact on them when isolated - see Taranis - on Titan damage resistance - Oya was still at High with 7 controls and an active spire site, while Hadad was not affected in its vulnerability by one remaining active during the assault - or really system strength either.)

But…

If you wouldn’t mind telling, what are those spawn conditions? My superficial understanding is that they have to/seem to be near a nebula or inside of one, but I’ve never looked at it more closely. (Or a record of known barnacles and planetary conditions of the worlds on which they are located.)

Gravity could well be a factor, given we're jumping from platform to platform 3km off the ground. I assume they've rated it to be doable in an unmodded Dominator.
It's a long way down when you miss...

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Revised Raijin prediction as the control sphere edge has come in a lot

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas;	Yes
Wanmi	26.362	18.935	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2;	Yes
Ngolite	26.894	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8;	Yes
Koko Oh	27.066	20.431	HIP 113535;	Yes
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma;	Yes
Ralteki	28.923	22.038	Iduni; (backtrack Maribe)	Yes
Maribe	27.923	23.625	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EM-S a5-3	32.833	23.770	Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;	Yes
Hasaka	29.591	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	Yes
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-0	28.088	24.019	HIP 116542;	Yes

The order of the top two changes, but everything else stays. Still no backtracks usable on the expected budget.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 29 August

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 180 control systems and 815 regional systems.
Total connected: 181

Furthest Control: 30.011 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Picenile	24.796	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc	Yes
Asletae	28.536	21.530	Khwal;	Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11	28.899	20.237	Kurumanit (9.965 LY); Mahlina; Vucumatha; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Daisla	31.962	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	Yes
HIP 40786	31.389	25.947	Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

Cocijo again likely to lose an Alert as it reaches the edge.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 116 control systems and 876 regional systems.
Total connected: 117

Furthest Control: 25.969 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Vistnero	21.009	19.034	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; etc	Yes
Nibelaako	22.263	16.841	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; etc	Yes
Ixbaksha	23.247	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Chakma; etc	Yes
Tagin	23.269	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	Yes
Isla	23.900	24.019	HIP 116542;	Yes
HIP 117177	24.758	21.188	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Kuruma;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma;	Yes
Ralteki	28.923	22.038	Iduni; (backtrack Maribe)	Yes
Maribe	27.923	23.625	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EM-S a5-3	32.833	23.770	Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;	Yes

As things stand, Raijin will get a complete inner set. Recapture of 23 controls (working strictly inwards) would prevent that at the point HIP 116542 was recaptured, so an eventual loss of an Alert to the control edge seems likely. Not at the stage yet where Raijin is going to run out of targets, however.

Spoiler: Exhausted Controls

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Mapon:1
HR 3048:1
-- Raijin
Chinas:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
HIP 113535:1

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Raijin does indeed lose an expected Alert to the sphere edge. No changes at Cocijo.

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Vistnero	21.009	19.034	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; etc	Yes
Nibelaako	22.263	16.841	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; etc	Yes
Ixbaksha	23.247	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Chakma; etc	Yes
Tagin	23.269	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 117177	24.758	21.188	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6;	Yes
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EM-S a5-3	32.833	23.770	Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;	Yes
Hasaka	29.591	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	Yes
Wikira	30.080	24.579	Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110;	Yes

EDIT: and the results are fine at Cocijo, but a misprediction at Tagin leading to HIP 117177 being Alerted instead. Tagin was a control system which got a 1-week recovery, but it may well be that it still has the Control+4 cooldown to consider instead. I'll set things up that way before doing the next prediction.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 5 September

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Adjustments as described above included to Controls with 1-week recovery.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 180 control systems and 815 regional systems.
Total connected: 181

Furthest Control: 30.011 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.162	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4;	Yes
Wogaiawong	32.122	24.880	Paitra;	Yes
HIP 40786	31.389	25.947	Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2;	Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2	35.126	26.317	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

Cocijo has a very exterior week this time - though still no opportunities for backtracking.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 91 control systems and 901 regional systems.
Total connected: 92

Furthest Control: 24.643 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Nu Guang	19.330	11.760	Snoqui;	Yes
Holvandalla	21.476	16.445	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes
Balak	23.024	16.575	Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5;	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0;	Yes
HIP 113076	24.384	15.653	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Kamato	26.991	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; (backtrack Aurus)	Yes
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma;	Yes
Aurus	25.723	22.349	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EM-S a5-3	32.833	23.770	Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;	Yes
Hasaka	29.591	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	Yes

Raijin, meanwhile, gets an interior week predicted to start with, though the CSE is only five systems away from cutting off that fifth target.

Spoiler: Exhausted Controls

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16:1
Khwal:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6:1

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Revised prediction at Raijin

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Nu Guang	19.330	11.760	Snoqui;	Yes
Holvandalla	21.476	16.445	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Humarala; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5;	Yes
Balak	23.024	18.082	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 113076	24.384	15.653	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5;	Yes
Kamato	26.991	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; (backtrack Aurus)	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2;	Yes
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma;	Yes
Aurus	25.723	22.349	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EM-S a5-3	32.833	23.770	Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;	Yes
Hasaka	29.591	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;	Yes

The move inward of the edge grants Bormuninus a potential reprieve, as it moves some way down the targeting order.

The recapture of Raijin's last spire makes a reactivation swap possible - IH-U b3-4 has been out of their control the longest and is the only one which has completed a conventional 4-week cooldown, should that matter - and it'd be a nice one for us if they traded it, since its four adjacent controls are putting out quite a lot of attacks while being deep enough not to be captured soon anyway.

And, of course, there's the possibility that "Thargoid counter-attack" means more than increasing their weekly budgets a little.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 12 September

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Baseline predictions correct for attacks. No sign of spire reactivation so that may be a manual process (or even just a one-off at Thor)

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 177 control systems and 818 regional systems.
Total connected: 178

Furthest Control: 29.766 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	17.824	Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146	33.189	24.597	HR 3048;	Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2	35.126	26.317	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

Cocijo continues to rotate around its current edge systems

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 77 control systems and 912 regional systems.
Total connected: 77

Furthest Control: 23.897 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Kamato	26.991	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; (backtrack Aurus)	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2;	Yes
Ngolite	26.894	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8;	Yes
Koko Oh	27.066	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;	Yes
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma;	Yes
Aurus	25.723	22.349	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4; (backtrack Hosan)	Yes
Pegasi Sector EM-S a5-3	32.833	23.770	Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;	Yes
Hasaka	29.591	23.897	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; (backtrack Attada)	Yes

A fully external week at Raijin. The PI-S b4-0 backtrack to Aurus is a slightly over-range one (10.004 LY) so might not be valid; if it is then Aurus will be a second Alert assuming nothing relevant on the recaptures.

Spoiler: Exhausted Controls

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4:1
Paitra:1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2:1
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5:1

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Kamato	26.991	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; (backtrack Aurus)	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2;	Yes
Koko Oh	27.066	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;	Yes
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma;	Yes

An updated Raijin prediction - the recapture at OI-S b4-4 renders the potential Aurus backtrack irrelevant, and others reduce Raijin to solely these four budgeted systems.

Unless, of course, they're about to do something new...

EDIT: ignoring the Shinrarta attack being nominally allocated to Raijin, all normal attacks appear to have proceeded as expected. (Cocijo is actually closer - 166 vs 225 LY - but it's probably not massively relevant unless it ends up as a Control)

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 19 September

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 170 control systems and 825 regional systems.
Total connected: 171

Furthest Control: 29.035 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Picenile	24.796	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc	Yes
Asletae	28.536	21.530	Khwal;	Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11	28.899	20.237	Kurumanit (9.965 LY); Mahlina; Vucumatha; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Daisla	31.962	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2	35.126	26.317	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

If the mostly-complete recapture of YY-F b12-3 is finished that will move ZE-P c6-11 to the outside, though this shouldn't actually change the ordering or targets.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 63 control systems and 926 regional systems.
(Excluding Shinrarta Dezhra for now; if it does end up as a Control things will need adjusting at that point)
Total connected: 64

Furthest Control: 23.491 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Vistnero	21.009	19.034	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1;	Yes
Nibelaako	22.263	16.841	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6;	Yes
Ixbaksha	23.247	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	Yes
Tagin	23.269	21.188	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

The substantial decline in the size of Raijin's perimeter is notable. Currently its attacks are entirely internal this week, and in a normal week it would likely lose at least one to continued pushback.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Picenile	24.796	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc	Yes
Asletae	28.536	21.530	Khwal;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11	28.899	20.237	Kurumanit (9.965 LY);	Yes
Daisla	31.962	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2	35.126	26.317	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

Minor change to the Cocijo prediction - moves ZE-P c6-11 to an external attack, but doesn't change the order or expected attacker.


EDIT: results -> Cocijo as expected, Raijin places just the first three.
The simplest explanation is that the spire reclamation occurred before conventional attack placement - so Tagin was not alerted, because with two of Nibelaako's possible attackers going to reactivate the spire instead, DG-X c1-6 had to attack that instead, leaving Raijin with nowhere to place a 4th attack from.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 26 September

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Using the assumption of spire recaptures before conventional attacks above for calculations of exhausted systems.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 168 control systems and 826 regional systems.
Total connected: 169

Furthest Control: 28.888 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0;	Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.162	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4;	Yes
Wogaiawong	32.122	24.880	Paitra;	Yes
HIP 40786	31.389	25.947	Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2;	Yes
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2	35.126	26.317	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

All external at Cocijo and no backtracks, so the usual 3+1 pattern expected.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 57 control systems and 934 regional systems.
Total connected: 54
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-7	15.55848342
HIP 116360	20.90213898
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6	21.18782264
HIP 117229	23.19762666

Furthest Control: 23.491 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Nu Guang	19.330	11.760	Snoqui;	Yes
Holvandalla	21.476	16.445	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Humarala; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5;	Yes
Iduni	22.038	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5;	Yes
Balak	23.024	18.082	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 113076	24.384	15.653	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5;	Yes
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71	25.661	18.160	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6;	Yes
HIP 110626	25.317	20.888	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8;	Yes

Raijin has a bit more perimeter available for now, much of it not dependent on its outermost controls, but this may nevertheless be the last chance it gets to attack the long-suffering Nu Guang and Holvandalla. If the perimeter comes in under Balak, then the attack on HIP 113076 is likely to be prioritised instead.

Spoiler: Exhausted Controls

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16:1
Khwal:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6:1

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 113076	24.384	15.653	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5;	Yes
Holvandalla	21.476	16.445	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10;	Yes
Aurus	25.723	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); (backtrack Iduni)(backtrack Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115)	Yes
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71	25.661	18.160	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6;	Yes
HIP 110626	25.317	20.888	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8;	Yes

A revised Raijin prediction after some substantial recaptures - note that the third invasion is very uncertain: Aurus is probably out of range, and GW-W d1-115 is the slightly more distant target of the other two.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 3 October

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

The potential attack on Aurus did turn out to be over-range, and then the further of the two other targets was selected as expected.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 168 control systems and 827 regional systems.
Total connected: 169

Furthest Control: 28.888 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	17.824	Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2	35.126	26.317	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes
HIP 38134	32.231	26.329	Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Na Zha	32.027	27.847	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

Nothing unusual at Cocijo

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 34 control systems and 959 regional systems.
Total connected: 17
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Mora	11.55126143
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-6	13.43168479
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-6	13.43357501
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-7	15.55848342
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5	15.65256943
Marindhs	15.81561852
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10	16.44531064
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9	17.30372634
HIP 112475	18.46684635
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1	19.03422596
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3	19.4063758
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7	19.74728027
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2	20.14832693
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0	20.75635257
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8	20.88755704
HIP 116360	20.90213898
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5	21.10580674
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4	21.11623801

Furthest Control: 21.116 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 112823	15.433	13.432	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-6;	Yes
Chinas	17.462	16.077	Sholintet; Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 110626	25.317	19.747	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7;	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2;	Yes
Koko Oh	27.066	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;	Yes

Three of Raijin's targets are given only by its outer ten controls, so the chances of Raijin actually placing very much of this list are slim. HIP 112823 is the first inner recapture to come off cooldown and become a target itself.

Spoiler: Exhausted Controls

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4:1
Paitra:1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6:1

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Prediction update: assuming the ongoing recapture attempt at Sholintet is completed (it's on track to), Raijin will have lost all its conventional attack opportunities.
(Unless there's some major changes in the last few hours, the original Cocijo prediction should stand)