Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

[Ian Doncaster]

May as well post the updated prediction now, since it's not going to change:
- there are no longer any conventional Alerts/Invasions possible this week
- there will also be no conventional Alerts/Invasions possible next week (unless the Thargoids directly gain several Control systems on Thursday)

Unless the Thargoid Surprise significantly shakes that up, therefore, this may be the final prediction under the current model.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Narwhal Nose report generated 5 December

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Well, the Thargoids are back after a short holiday, so let's see if they've changed behaviour at all or if the current model still works

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 4 control systems and 270 regional systems.
Total connected: 4

Furthest Control: 10.520 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Ross 154	9.690	4.380	Alpha Centauri; Barnard's Star;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Gendalla	16.550	7.780	Wolf 359; (backtrack Ross 128)(backtrack Luyten's Star)(backtrack Wolf 424)(backtrack G 41-14)	Yes
LHS 2459	17.460	10.520	WISE 1506+7027; (backtrack Kruger 60)	Yes

Assuming - since they did two years ago - that the fresh Controls can all attack, that we're still on the previous placement rules, etc.
Wolf 359 has a lot of targets so that prediction is particularly uncertain.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

Do we know if/how fighting in Sol affects the other systems progress?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Do we know if/how fighting in Sol affects the other systems progress?

Pod rescues should give progress to the Control systems since they're all marked as counterstrike.

Other actions I wouldn't expect to help, though the data is going to be far too noisy to test.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Updated Cocijo prediction

Furthest Control: 4.380 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Epsilon Indi	11.800	4.380	Alpha Centauri; (backtrack Ross 154)	Yes

Obviously this part is conditional on Alpha Centauri not being recaptured - and it looks like there's going to be time to do that too at current progress rates - but there's another interesting possibility here, since for the first time since Leigong we have a Titan with one or no Controls, but with a valid targetable system not on cooldown in range.

So there is a chance here that "emergency attacks" are still a mechanism, and a direct attack by Cocijo to Ross 154 could happen whether or not Alpha Centauri is taken out.

 

[Kira Goto]

Probably not going to be meaningful even if it does occur, unless the attack is not an auto-invasion but auto-control and some new (unique to this) rule has come into existence which keeps the Titan invulnerable unless every system it holds is cleared.

(Or invasions contribute to damage resistance but that seems doubtful and there’s been no time where this could be documented either.)

 

[Tifu]

So there is a chance here that "emergency attacks" are still a mechanism, and a direct attack by Cocijo to Ross 154 could happen whether or not Alpha Centauri is taken out.

Ross 154... where the nearest Interstellar Factor to Sol is. Loads of fun

Note: Just double-checked Ross 154 because it wasn't showing up in the list of stations with an IF within 45 LY of Sol. It no longer has an IF according to Inara, weird.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Though there are quite a few others still within most people's likely jump range - Lacaille 9352 should be fine, for example.