Thank you.
When you say, "The influence effect is not observable, as influence doesn't change in a war" it depends. Do you expect to see it immediately? When I started to help my power in this war it was one of the first questions I asked and was told it's been cleared on the next 'tick', something I can confirm for sure, though it never would give you a direct feedback about your own actions (unfortunately, something I personally don't like, as with most of these movements that come no sooner than with the next daily tick). You are literally fighting in the blue at first and then need patience. But I thought (think) this is the way it's meant to be and am confident that it does.
As to the influence/reputation correlation I had hoped to learn why this is relevant to you, as reputation as far as I'm aware has no influence on the outcome of these wars with the goal to gain control over the system you are fighting in.
Not sure where the point of confusion is, but you seem to be correlating or asserting things that I haven't said or suggested.
Yes, influence and reputation are entirely different things, and yes, reputation has nothing to do with winning wars. I'll try and start from scratch.
When you resolve (win) a conflict zone, there are three effects which are displayed:
1. Reputation increase with the supported faction
2. Reputation decrease with the opposed faction
3. Influence increase with the supported faction.
I can prove effects 1 and 2 *do not* happen, i.e they are broken. The 3rd effect (the influence change) cannot be directly observed, and I'll come back to that statement in a sec. Either way, if two of the three effects of resolving a conflict zone are provably broken, then there's a good chance the 3rd probably is too. For example, if you ran a mission which offered Credits, Reputation and Influence, and when you hand the mission in, you didn't get any Credits or Reputation, it's highly probable[1] the influence effect wouldn't have happened either.
Now, when I say the 3rd effect (the influence change) can't be directly observed, I need to pre-load some things.
1. Bottom line, influence *does not* change during a war. The only influence change that occurs during a war is the +/-4% for the winner and loser at it's conclusion. Will's statement confirms this.
2. Influence effects pre-patch were redirected to a bucket... so essentially whoever would've had the larger net influence change under pre-3.3 mechanics would "win the day" and score a point in the "war progress" under the new mechanics. Now, the new mechanics don't use influence (at least, that's what Wills statement suggests).
Now, the update says that "it uses a completely separate calculation" or words to that effect.
Please note: The below numbers etc. are hypothetical, and just to illustrate possible observations.
In the old mechanics where Influence determined the winner, you could observe the effects.
- Hand in 100k combat bonds, at 5% start influence, gain 1% influence
- Hand in 2 x 100k combat bond transactions at 5% start influence, gain 2% influence
- Hand in 4 x 400k combat bond transactions at a 60% start influence, gain 2% influence
From here you can dissect that to determine the influence values of combat bonds and other actions easily enough, i.e the effects are observable. Moreover, if you then went:
- Hand in 1 x 100k combat bond at 5% start influence, gain 10% influence
... and you can't repeat that, instead getting the previously-mentioned 1% if you repeat, you know immediately that someone else must have been interfering in that system. The whole thing is opaque and observable.
Now, you can't, because:
- Complete 1 low CZ unopposed, gain 1 point on the war progress bar
- Complete 5 low CZs unopposed, gain 1 point on the war progress bar
- Complete 50 high CZs opposed by minor resistance, gain 1 point on the war progress bar
You cannot easily dissect those things and determine their comparative values. There are ways, but A) it's flipping difficult, and would take months of effort for even a large margin of error, and B) You simply can't tell if there's opposition, because the traffic reports are not representative.
Now, resolving a CZ is broken down into 2 (3 optional) sub-tasks:
1. Destroy Enemy Ships
2. Finish the CZ
3. (optional) hand in bonds
You can't separate the possibility that destroying ships is what influences the war outcome, rather than resolving the CZ itself. Bonds are a separate matter entirely, but at least you can control that yourself. Take the following test results:
1. You run a High CZ for one side, and a Medium CZ for the other side. You don't hand in any bonds. The side you ran the high CZ for wins that day.
2. You run a High CZ for one side, and a Medium CZ for the other side. You hand in bonds only for the Med CZ side. The Med CZ side wins that day.
3. You run a Medium CZ for both sides, and hand in 600k bonds for one side and 400k for the other. The side who got 400k bonds wins that day.
4. I run 4 missions for one side, and a high CZ for the other side. High CZ side wins
5. I run 4 missions for one side, and a high CZ for the other side. 4 missions side wins.
What can you determine from that? The answer is absolutely nothing, everything is transparent and unobservable. It's like a tennis match where you only get the results of the Games and Sets, e.g 6-4, 2-6, 7-6. You only know how many games were won, not whether the games were won 40-0 or went down to deuce every game.
But if I changed it to:
1. You run a High CZ for one side, and a medium CZ for the other side. You don't hand in any bonds. High CZ side got gained 4 points for that day, Medium CZ side got 2 points for that day.
2. You run a High CZ for one side, and a medium CZ for the other side. You hand in bonds for the medium CZ side. High CZ side got 4 points, medium CZ side gained 6 points.
3. You run a Medium CZ for both sides, and hand in 400k in bonds for one side and 600k bonds for the other. 600k bonds got 3 points, 400k bonds side got 8 points.
4. I run 4 missions for one side, and a high CZ for the other side + bonds. High CZ side gets 5 points, 4 mission side gets 0 points
5. I run 4 missions for one side, and a high CZ for the other side. High CZ side gets 5 points, 4 mission side gets 6 points
There's a massive amount of information in there. You can start to form theories like:
- A medium CZ gives 2 points, a high cz gets 4 points, which would be consistent with FD's historical number-crunching
- A low CZ probably gives 1 point, but you'd need to test. Likewise it looks like handing in a set of bonds may give 1 point.
- In 2. It's likely someone ran a medium CZ against you.
- In 3. it makes it look like Bonds are counted in transactions rather than value, even though someone interfered with another CZ.
- In 4. and 5. it's a smoking barrel that missions have no effect. It's likely someone external just ran two medium CZs plus bonds
This is what I mean by the effects of completing a CZ are unobservable; they're totally transparent to the player. Yes, I can go run a CZ, and after the tick my side will have a point, but why? Why did they get the point? Was it the CZ I ran? Was it the bonds I handed in? Was it the ships I killed? Was it none of the above, and some other player's action? Am I better to run two medium CZs, then hand in the bonds, or run a CZ and hand in the bonds between each? I can't tell. And that's where clarity is needed.
Genuinely, right now I'm involved in a close-fought war. I have about 15 Wartime Missions queued up (for surface scans, powerplant strikes etc.). In the time it takes me to do all those missions, I could do 3 High CZs, or 8 Medium CZs. When I started, I did a mix of missions and CZs and got up that day. I did the same thing the next two days and lost both days. I then did nothing but Medium CZs and bonds and won the next day. I'm clearly being opposed, so what won that day for me?
- Resolving the CZs? As mentioned the rep effects are broken, so it's possible this didn't win it for me
- The bonds I handed in?
- Do missions have any effect at all?
I'll never know because of the transparency.
[1] Without getting into lengthy discussion about common software design templates/execution flow, reverse engineering and probability mechanics.