"Elite Dangerous is dying"

[Salonica]

We don't know that without the full picture. Only FDEV knows that. I presume that currently it is the case indeed, but I wouldn't say it can't be denied. FDEV could potentially deny that with a hard proof, but they never shared player numbers and similar data.

Steam stats, which I agree only show those users using steam accounts, are showing steam player numbers lower than every over the past year. That! cannot be denied.

But maybe Fdev want us to beleive that there are more non steam players that bought the expansion and none of them left. Or maybe they want us to beleive that all the new SC players from Elite (Many I see every night) are fictional, or that that number has increased since the DLC debacle is just hapenstance?

They can 'potentially deny' all they like, and who will beleive them?

 

[Salonica]

Define "dying".

As an Everquest player of 22 years (on and off) I remember back in 2004 the doom and gloom folks said that EQ had about a year, maybe two years top, thanks to it's own sequel and WoW and the lackluster release of the Gates of Discord expansion.

Here we are, and Everquest is still going. Hardly the numbers of players in its glory days of course, bit it still a modest moneymaker, and they still come out with a yearly expansion as well

In my long experience with some MMOs (not all MMO experience this), there is always that one, that one update, DLC or expansion that "ruins" the game and causes the majority of the playerbase to flee.

Age of Shadows, Ultima Online in 2003

Gates of Discord, Everquest in 2004

Scars of Velious, Everquest 2 in 2012

Probably the most famous example was the "NGE" expansion/update in Star Wars: Galaxies. Almost immediately after that release, a huge amount of players left the game, pleading with Sony to reverse the expansion. They didnt, and in a time when losing players meant losing monthly revenue, they still refused to change. (Back then, most MMOs were subscription based)

While Star Wars: Galaxies stayed online for many years as a shadow of it former glory, it was an important lesson to the gaming industry at the time, and looks like that lesson has been forgotten.

Everquest 1 did die. It was reincarnated. As someone who raided in the #2 raiding guild worldwide... It was a huge loss.

An Everquest 1 with todays graphics woiuld be awesome !

 

[4ndr34]

They can 'potentially deny' all they like, and who will beleive them?

I am pretty confident that the Volunteer Moderators will believe them...

 

[Navigare Necesse Est]

Wasn't that the one with that crazy Risc OS? Something like based on 2 (or 4?) bit, but insanely efficient? Wonder why this interesting technology wasn't developed further. The thing must have been really good in its time...

It was. It is being used in smartphones today.

 

[Vi7ER]

IMHO it's just very limited in scope, because it wasn't focused to give what was promised, that is space legs, but instead it was focused on shareholders and the end of the financial year...

Exactly.

 

[[VR] James Constantine]

That kind of echo's my point - in that there is PLENTY else that's a LOT more related to the established idea of being a pilot. Not least of these being tasks within a ship interior (including prettying it up with ARX purchased trinkets).

Instead they chose to focus on FPS gameplay which is almost completely detached from the rest of the game and yes they implemented it poorly (when comparing to most FPSs).

It's interesting you see it as detached from the rest of the game because essentially I get the impression that the new Cobra engine is precisely that, a separate iteration of the original engine, possibly rewritten (with some legacy code) from the ground up. Except they didn't really know how to integrate it with the original game logic. Even linking it to the game database has apparently been a nightmare.

So perhaps the reason for the pew-pew is that game play in EDO is so divorced from the rest of the game is they lacked the resources to integrate it properly, hence seemingly unrelated game loops and little or no crossover.

Define "dying".

No one said it was going to be a quick death.

But, as with Star Wars Galaxies, the coup de grâce will be served, if it is served, when FDev weighs he options and decides it is the best one to take.

 

[Ohanka]

I think after what money can be extracted from the console release of Odyssey the game will be quietly put into Maintainence mode and run as long as ARX sales exceed the cost of running the game.

 

[vanFace]

Too bad, space legs in regards to meaningful exploration, base building, walking in ships, and/or other FPS gameplay loops such as boarding enemy ships, didnt make it in too. The gameplay that did make it in, no matter what I read about it, or how many different youtube videos I watch about it, is just very limited in scope. \O/

Indeed. However, for those knowing FDev for any time now, the chance of that implementation being no MVP was never high, either.

 

[Agony_Aunt]

Stuffz?

 

[Vi7ER]

So perhaps the reason for the pew-pew is that game play in EDO is so divorced from the rest of the game is they lacked the resources to integrate it properly, hence seemingly unrelated game loops and little or no crossover.

That's a good an explanation as any as to why the FPS elements seem so unrelated to the existing game loops. But then it doesn't need to be related to draw in new customers I guess.

 

[Rubbernuke]

Elite has blown its own legs off, essentially, and FD are desperately trying to sew them back on while running a marathon.

They ain't dead, but they are very, very close to permanently messing up and they know it. Braben has been on three times now and radically altered 'the plan'.

 

[[VR] James Constantine]

I think after what money can be extracted from the console release of Odyssey the game will be quietly put into Maintainence mode and run as long as ARX sales exceed the cost of running the game.

I would add the reputational value of the game, as closing it down will harm them. They may be willing to allow it to run at a reasonable loss to avoid that, at least for the time being. Honestly though, we don't have a clue what they might do.

That's a good an explanation as any as to why the FPS elements seem so unrelated to the existing game loops. But then it doesn't need to be related to draw in new customers I guess.

It doesn't, but it probably would have made sense to do so anyway. Anyway, it's a moot point. You're asking why the jam is missing, when they're still struggling with the bread and butter.

 

[orange_apecs]

Steam stats, which I agree only show those users using steam accounts, are showing steam player numbers lower than every over the past year. That! cannot be denied.

But maybe Fdev want us to beleive that there are more non steam players that bought the expansion and none of them left. Or maybe they want us to beleive that all the new SC players from Elite (Many I see every night) are fictional, or that that number has increased since the DLC debacle is just hapenstance?

They can 'potentially deny' all they like, and who will beleive them?

I've said this before.
Do not compare Steam stats in 2020 when everyone locked indoors. They are skewed upwards.
Look at the figures in 2015-19.
March 2020 - April 2020 saw a sudden spike of 4000+ average players per day. When was lockdown in the UK imposed? (I'll give you a clue, March 2020).
Lockdown restrictions are being lifted, people going on holiday or just going out, people going back to work (not "working" from home), nicer weather, etc.

What we are seeing is a return to normal numbers of players, rather than the inflated figures that came in 2020.
The previous years figures, on average, show around 3000-5000 players per day with less around June, July and August (school holiday season). Take 3000-4000 players off the averages in 2020 and you'll get a better feel for what the numbers would have been.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I barely see a difference. The FM is superior in X for me.

Lol.

 

[orange_apecs]

And to close the topic of Elite is dying here is a word or two from Mr Braben himself.

Odyssey Going Forwards

Greetings Commanders. With the release of Update 5 on 1st July plus a few smaller server updates since, and Update 6 currently in development, I wanted to take a moment of your time to talk about the next steps for Elite Dangerous. We are aware and fully accept the frustration that many of our...

forums.frontier.co.uk

 

[CMDR SJ]

And to close the topic of Elite is dying here is a word or two from Mr Braben himself.

Odyssey Going Forwards

Greetings Commanders. With the release of Update 5 on 1st July plus a few smaller server updates since, and Update 6 currently in development, I wanted to take a moment of your time to talk about the next steps for Elite Dangerous. We are aware and fully accept the frustration that many of our...

forums.frontier.co.uk

Its certainly a step in the right direction, but how development, communication and ownership goes from this point will be important.

 

[[VR] James Constantine]

"We're postponing the console launch because the PC version is still a mess and no one is going to buy the console version until we can stem the bad reviews."

Meh. Just confirming what a lot of people had already guessed.

 

[Chris Simon]

Been hearing a lot of talk recently about how Elite is dying. I don't think this will happen any time soon. In my experience, for a game to die an adequate replacement must be available. Space sim nerds are always gonna play space sims, and if there isn't a replacement space sim game out there that does most of what Elite does, but better, the game isn't going to die.

I used to be a big Star Trek Online player back in the day. It used to be one of my primary games. The only reason why I stopped playing STO around 2014/15 is because another game came along and did most of what I wanted from STO, but better. That game was Elite Dangerous. Since then, I haven't really looked back since. So when I try to look around to find a replacement game that satisfies the parts of Elite that I love, I find nothing. The two other main games in the same genre as Elite feel more like side-grades than upgrades from ED, which isn't enough to get me to switch to them.

So no, I'm not really buying into this "Elite is dying" rhetoric currently being thrown around, at least for now ....

Agreed.

Funnily enough, I've downloaded STO a couple months ago just for giggles and to remember the old days. My previous character was corrupted (fair enough, I didn't expect them to keep her alive for six years or how long I've been gone) so I created a new one.
The game development of STO vs. Elite really shows how things are I think. The STO hadn't changed one bit in those six years. And that's a game that for the longest time had a subscription model and tens of millions of revenue. Elite on the other hand changed dramatically. We tend to forget all the little things that's been added, fixed, improved, etc. and we take big expansions for granted. Well, we shouldn't.
Yeah, Odyssey is a bit of a mess but I really have to say I admire Frontier for keeping the lights on, so to speak. Even if they are not the same people who started all this, the passion and willingness to keep marching forward (albeit very slowly ) hasn't changed.
I think it will be some time before the last server janitor flips the switch and go home.

 

[Navigare Necesse Est]

Lol.

I wouldnt be surprised if you havent even played X4.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I wouldnt be surprised if you havent even played X4.

Then you'd be wrong. I bought X:R before ED, and X:4 when it came out. Been recommending X4 all over the forums here.

But pretending it's Flight model is better, or even remotely on the same level, is really just lol. It's really "my new GF is better at everything than my previous one!" levels of lol.