Sure, several ways to get approximately the same numbers using a combination of in-game and public 3rd-party information.
1) The Distant Worlds method
2) The Squadrons method
3) The Steam Stats method
thanks for the thorough explanation. kudos for effort and inegnuity but there are some weak assumptions and biased samples there. you could use the same methods to arrive at both half and double the numbers just with slight tweaks. the concept of 'somewhat active' is quite nebulous anyway. we know frontier sold millions of copies. any of those can play for a week and not be seen again in years, but you do have to be rather active for a while to grind for a fleet carrier. while i would not accept your numbers i would agree with you that only a minority of
total players have one.
however, if you merely look at steam stats over time (a biased but assumedly consistent sample over time) you see a high but not uncommon spike from april to may, which could be attributed to the 'update' effect, the season and also covid19, followed by a totally unprecedented record high in june. all time record. this has to be strongly related to space castles / mining exploits for lack of a better explanation, since nothing else is going on. meaning
the majority of current 'somewhat active' players are either playing with their space castle or working to get one.
anyway, it's not the proportion but the absolute numbers what trashes servers. which is consistent, elite never had that many concurrent players.
Given that prior to carriers "a station, but it can change state without a weekly server reset" was a concept widely laughed at with Thargsday and similar ... I'm not going to underestimate just how difficult it was to get stations to move (mostly) reliably to player-defined positions on 15 minutes notice and have most player clients agree most of the time on where they are.
The time taken to develop a feature and the actual bits the players see aren't necessarily related. The bit of code that stops two carriers coming out of hyperspace at the same location as each other and as an NPC station we'll never see, and if it took months to get right, that's months before they can release carriers because we'd really notice if it wasn't there. (The big remaining flaw in this code that drops carriers into the ambiguous zone near rings and sends them running away from their owners most certainly has been noticed...)
It was a couple of years and multiple delays before carriers were released, so I'm assuming it took them a couple of years of work.
i can't really make any sense of all this. you're basically saying that something must have taken years because you can't personally figure out how they did it.
well, i can figure out pretty well several ways how it could have been done, but more important than that i know for a fact that frontier changed goals, design and functionality of fleet carriers barely 4 months before release. so barring some previous 'concept artwork' the whole thing was put together in 3 hectic months, just in time for beta. which is not unusal frontier way and it's really no surprise it's a bit flimsy.