General / Off-Topic Measles

[Becks]

Then it's a good thing that the vast majority of people in western civ are and will continue to be vaccinated against it. And while it may be seriously contagious, it's actually less of a health risk than influenza or the Norovirus by a wide margin, so not seeing the point in creating a false panic by using trumped up statistics like the OP did.

And at exactly this point you're completely wrong. Misinformation about vaccines has become more and more widespread, to the point were it can be directly linked to the reintroduction of the measles to the US. Because of it's extreme contagiousness thinning out the herd immunity against measles is very dangerous, as it exponentially increases transmission vectors. The simplified math behind the modelling of infectious disease is quite easy.

R0 * S = 1

R0 is the basic reproduction number, which is the average number of infections caused by each infection. S is the proportion of the population who are susceptible to infection.

For measles, R0 is between 12 and 18. That is insanely high. For comparison, the number of influenza is 1,5 to 1,8. Yes, you read that right, the measles are roughly ten times as contagious as influenza is. Well anyways, if you multiply those numbers and the product is one or more the disease is endemic, meaning it can sustain itself in your society in the long term. If the value is lower than one, the disease will be eradicated in the long term, because it cannot sustain itself, thus you have achieved herd immunity.

For measles it looks like this:

12 * 0,1 = 1,2
12 * 0,09 = 1,08
12 * 0,08 = 0,96

18 * 0,1 = 1,8
18 * 0,09 = 1,62
18 * 0,08 = 1,44
18 * 0,07 = 1,26
18 * 0,06 = 1,08
18 * 0,05 = 0,9

This is a rough model and the maths behind the models for epidemiology goes way deeper, but for a rough estimate (and to make a point) it's probably enough.

From that you can conclude that the Herd Immunity Threshold lies somewhere between 92% and 95%, which is exactly why it is so important that the vaccination rates stay up. As you can see, even a fall of a couple percent can render the herd immunity useless.

For comparison, the HIT for Influenza is between 33 and 44%. Please do not underestimate the threat measles pose even to first world country, because you compare them with a disease you cannot effectively vaccine against (yes, there are vaccines against influenza, you not only need to administer them yearly, you also need to develop them yearly because influenza mutates so freakishly fast).

If you are interested in eradicating the measles globally, vaccinate. If we stop vaccinating, we will return to the situation we had prior to 1960.

So unless you mean 95% or more when you say 'vast majority', it is entirely irrelevant for eradicating it, like we did with small pox.

 

[Shinji Ikari]

Yep, and this is what I meant by being attacked instead of addressed.

I and Ian adressed your point...

that's all my enemies on the forum have left, attacking and parodying.

Enemies? You've got to be kidding me.

It's all good, man. If you and Mr. Masters Degree in Psychology can't do anything better than to insult a point I didn't even make while utterly ignoring the point that I did, well, that goes down in the win column for yours truly. Arguing against you and Ian is like taking candy from a baby.

Again, you didn't have a coherent point or you did and couldn't write it down.

 

[Rick6549]

 

[CMDR M. Lehman]

I really do think that a handful of salient points can be distilled from this thread:

• Vaccines are good, effective, and should be used everywhere.
• Measles are extra nasty.
• Vaccinate for measles.

Did I miss anything?

 

[jasonbarron]

I really do think that a handful of salient points can be distilled from this thread:

• Vaccines are good, effective, and should be used everywhere.
• Measles are extra nasty.
• Vaccinate for measles.

Did I miss anything?

*Death statistics from third world countries shouldn't be used to promote a narrative in western civ because that's where the phrase "fake news" comes from.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Hilariously, antivaxxers think they're winning this.

 

[jasonbarron]

I'm no anti-vaxxer; I'm happy that everyone else is being vaccinated

 

[Becks]

I'm no anti-vaxxer; I'm happy that everyone else is being vaccinated

Then you're the very definition of the free rider problem of herd immunity. You should hope, for your own sake, that the rest of your community consists of more decent people.

 

[jasonbarron]

Then you're the very definition of the free rider problem of herd immunity. You should hope, for your own sake, that the rest of your community consists of more decent people.

I try to console myself by carrying all the free loaders of an ever expanding welfare class by paying more than my fair share of taxes

 

[Becks]

Seeing you're from the US, I very much doubt that you pay a single penny more than the share that is required from you.

Not that it matters, when you contract a disease you're not immunized against and have to pay the bill for that, too.

 

[jasonbarron]

Seeing you're from the US, I very much doubt that you pay a single penny more than the share that is required from you.

Not that it matters, when you contract a disease you're not immunized against and have to pay the bill for that, too.

Taken from https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/climate_vs_weather.html
"What is the difference between weather and climate?
Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and its short-term variation in minutes to weeks. People generally think of weather as the combination of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. We talk about changes in weather in terms of the near future: "How hot is it right now?" "What will it be like today?" and "Will we get a snowstorm this week?"

Climate is the weather of a place averaged over a period of time, often 30 years. Climate information includes the statistical weather information that tells us about the normal weather, as well as the range of weather extremes for a location."


I am immunized against measles, and the way it works in America is that those who are willing to work are expected to carry the load of those who won't, and business owners such as myself who work harder and take more risks than those who simply fill ready made positions that people like me created out of thin air pay even more for the privilege.

Have fun making up more fake news, gang. Oh, and please, get good at science.

 

[Becks]

Taken from https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/climate_vs_weather.html
"What is the difference between weather and climate?
Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and its short-term variation in minutes to weeks. People generally think of weather as the combination of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. We talk about changes in weather in terms of the near future: "How hot is it right now?" "What will it be like today?" and "Will we get a snowstorm this week?"

Climate is the weather of a place averaged over a period of time, often 30 years. Climate information includes the statistical weather information that tells us about the normal weather, as well as the range of weather extremes for a location."


I am immunized against measles, and the way it works in America is that those who are willing to work are expected to carry the load of those who won't, and business owners such as myself who work harder and take more risks than those who simply fill ready made positions that people like me created out of thin air pay even more for the privilege.

Have fun making up more fake news, gang. Oh, and please, get good at science.

Thanks for the information about ... the difference between weather and climate?

I see, your view on the economy and social systems is as simplistic as your view of diseases and vaccine.

"Get good at science." coming from you, lolol. How about you come back when you actually have some arguments that contribute to the discussion?

 

[jasonbarron]

Thanks for the information about ... the difference between weather and climate?

I see, your view on the economy and social systems is as simplistic as your view of diseases and vaccine.

"Get good at science." coming from you, lolol. How about you come back when you actually have some arguments that contribute to the discussion?

For a guy who doesn't contribute much to the discussion it's funny how I'm the most consistently quoted poster on this forum.

 

[Shinji Ikari]

Oh, and please, get good at science.

 

[Shinji Ikari]

For a guy who doesn't contribute much to the discussion it's funny how I'm the most consistently quoted poster on this forum.

If this isn't contributing much then I don't know what is.

 

[jasonbarron]

Thanks for the information about ... the difference between weather and climate?

I see, your view on the economy and social systems is as simplistic as your view of diseases and vaccine.

"Get good at science." coming from you, lolol. How about you come back when you actually have some arguments that contribute to the discussion?

Sorry about the climate stuff, that was a mistake and intended for a different thread. Just trying to do this from my phone

 

[Becks]

For a guy who doesn't contribute much to the discussion it's funny how I'm the most consistently quoted poster on this forum.

Most consistently quoted and being right are two very different things.

Sorry about the climate stuff, that was a mistake and intended for a different thread. Just trying to do this from my phone

Probably for the environment thread I assume.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Not exactly measles but...

The unit where I work had admitted 3-4 critical influenza cases in November, who tested positive. One died last month. There is an outbreak.

The nursing staff did barrier nursing, but they were understandably less than thrilled about the exposure, so Admin supplied multidose vials of the flu vaccine, and asked me to do the needful. All the nurses got doses. So did the office folks, porters, cooks and cleaners.

Even so, one of them fell sick the day after the dose: already incubating the virus.
She's been sick for weeks.

I didn't take a dose. Gave mine(last one) to the security guard instead.

I'm fitter and stronger than the other employees, and had H1N1 a couple years ago. Figured my immunity/survival would hold best. So I took the risk, and considered it my duty to the others. I'll get mine later when it's available again.

This is a little different to the inactions of the antivaxxers. But in the end, I am doing the same, albeit temporarily. It would be dishonest not to say so.

 

[jasonbarron]

As I said earlier, H1N1 and Influenza are a problem worth talking about.

 

[lysan]

Not exactly measles but...

The unit where I work had admitted 3-4 critical influenza cases in November, who tested positive. One died last month. There is an outbreak.

The nursing staff did barrier nursing, but they were understandably less than thrilled about the exposure, so Admin supplied multidose vials of the flu vaccine, and asked me to do the needful. All the nurses got doses. So did the office folks, porters, cooks and cleaners.

Even so, one of them fell sick the day after the dose: already incubating the virus.
She's been sick for weeks.

I didn't take a dose. Gave mine(last one) to the security guard instead.

I'm fitter and stronger than the other employees, and had H1N1 a couple years ago. Figured my immunity/survival would hold best. So I took the risk, and considered it my duty to the others. I'll get mine later when it's available again.

This is a little different to the inactions of the antivaxxers. But in the end, I am doing the same, albeit temporarily. It would be dishonest not to say so.

I give my flu shots to others too, because I care for other peoples health, now I think about it I give all my vaccination to other people, as I don’t need it.