New red-orange dot approaching the bubble at 0.8ly per minute-- Thargoid mothership?

[AceMcKool]

FWIW, I scanned them without death, but had to run away twice! Worth it don't know. They are voice logs and interesting but AFAIK won't go into the codex.

Edit: I saw someone else mention that they do go to the codex, so that's nice.

Yup, got 'em without a scratch. I was able to scan two of them before FSA warning came up. Waked out, dropped back in for the 3rd one (1/3, hidden in the megaship's rings) and got out before the FSA warning came up again.

And they do show in the Codex, bugged as usual, but they do.

As someone else already mentioned, 1/3 shows as Communications Logs with a different text, but the audio is OK. The other two both show under The Kingfisher entry.

 

[Biff Stryker]

I was lucky and got there and scanned them before the goids started to arrive. Subsequently went back several times to shoot at them resulting in more re-buys than I wanted to spare.
I am now back to tracking #3 which is about 24ly 22ly away from where my FC is parked and is right next door to an inhabited system. Hope it comes my way

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Probably not the last weekly trajectory update, though it's possible there'll be a sudden burst of speed from all of them after U14.

System​	1: Oochorrs​	2: Slegi​	3: Oochost​	4: Outorst​	5: Outotch​	6: Oochoxt A​	7. Prooe Drye​	8. Oochoxt B​
Initial Distance​	2064​	3384​	2167​	2895​	2808​	2636​	2650​	2612​
Progress​	92%​	93%​	91%​	87%​	83%​	83%​	87%​	86%​
Start Date​	30/08/22​	09/09/22​	12/09/22​	08/10/22​	08/10/22​	17/10/22​	21/10/22​	22/10/22​
Projected Arrival (centre)​	04/12/22​	02/12/22​	04/12/22​	05/12/22​	07/12/22​	05/12/22​	03/12/22​	03/12/22​
Projected Arrival (fringe)​	26/11/22​	28/11/22​	28/11/22​	01/12/22​	04/12/22​	02/12/22​	30/11/22​	30/11/22​

All eight are travelling slower than their long-term average, so the estimated arrival times are likely to be way too soon (though #1 and #3 have essentially reached the fringes of the bubble now). #5 and #6 continue to move much slower than the other later ones, and are now the furthest back, which suggests that they won't all be arriving in the bubble at the same time ... though depending on how deep their respective destinations are, and whether the back ones slow down as much in the late stages as the front three have, they might still get to all of those at once. Still, they are very likely to arrive over a much shorter timescale than the 2-month window they set off in.

System​	1: Oochorrs​	2: Slegi​	3: Oochost​	4: Outorst​	5: Outotch​	6: Oochoxt A​	7. Prooe Drye​	8. Oochoxt B​
Sol​	67​	126​	63​	39​	40​	171​	94​	103​
42 n Persei​	204​	118​	66​	171​	281​	271​	188​	308​
Chun Pindit​	130​	163​	49​	140​	174​	219​	116​	224​
Tekkeitjal​	97​	223​	105​	192​	109​	197​	110​	188​
Achenar​	73​	30​	75​	160​	126​	53​	128​	37​
Alioth​	149​	204​	141​	33​	106​	252​	140​	183​
Concordia​	75​	131​	16​	152​	138​	159​	60​	166​
Lave​	103​	158​	94​	12​	78​	223​	195​	138​
Shinrarta​	68​	136​	65​	29​	23​	184​	138​	101​
Andecavi​	123​	205​	104​	122​	101​	225​	111​	186​
Mbooni​	33​	75​	30​	89​	59​	120​	82​	58​
Panjabell​	168​	153​	187​	176​	135​	152​	77​	103​
Cubeo​	151​	66​	132​	194​	194​	110​	210​	111​
Harma​	145​	105​	149​	162​	139​	129​	73​	102​
Kamadhenu​	68​	89​	87​	163​	113​	76​	97​	19​
Eotienses​	51​	33​	56​	146​	108​	62​	100​	33​
Gateway​	138​	205​	137​	39​	90​	249​	155​	175​
Rhea​	79​	156​	77​	65​	23​	189​	104​	116​
Lembava​	112​	76​	64​	109​	143​	160​	17​	149​
Polevnic​	137​	72​	114​	131​	150​	150​	30​	133​
Clayakarma​	57​	131​	84​	71​	14​	162​	135​	83​
Nanomam​	96​	149​	87​	20​	64​	196​	96​	131​
Synteini​	30​	45​	29​	116​	81​	91​	114​	9​
Muang​	123​	47​	124​	212​	178​	32​	132​	104​
Variation​	5​	7​	9​	5​	2​	6​	1​	6​

As for their destinations ... they all remain with low variation trajectories now, with none of the above systems within that variation for any of them, and only one - likely coincidentally - within 10LY of its path.

Of course, we do know what the first inhabited system to be visited will be - Swahku, where #1 is closing in and will pass through (or stop?) tomorrow afternoon at its current speed. Even if that's not the actual destination, it provides a good indication of how useful this method of trajectory projection is. Here's a graph for #1 of how far its projected trajectory was from Swahku, compared with its distance from Swahku. (Both axes in LY, Y-axis is on a logarithmic scale)

As you can see, the uncertainty started off very large - the first five hops it wasn't even clear whether #1 was headed for the bubble or somewhere else nearby, and then fell off exponentially. Once within 500 LY - and all eight now are - the variation stayed under 10 LY for the rest of the journey.

This still, of course, leaves us no closer to working out where they are going.

 

[Jorki Rasalas]

Well, they’ve missed the Black Friday sales, but might just catch a late Cyber Monday deal, so...
Full price air fryers, cheap chips & free pilotburgers!

 

[]M[]

OK now for some TinFoil time :]

have been playing with this idea...



...though this octagon doesn't fit well (with the vertices all intersecting with projected UIA paths - still it's tempting to think that one of them may be Swahku ...and the centre might be Sol) ...as yet? ;]

 

[Ralph Vargr]

This still, of course, leaves us no closer to working out where they are going.

David Braben's optimized PC...

 

[Cori]

David Braben's optimized PC...

Like Mercenary II: Damocles, where if you blew up the PC in the author's house in game the entire star system ceased to exist?

 

[Leadfoot]

Probably not the last weekly trajectory update, though it's possible there'll be a sudden burst of speed from all of them after U14.

This still, of course, leaves us no closer to working out where they are going.

I'm going to go out on a rather thin and very long branch here but I don't think they'll be at their ultimate destination by the time the servers come up on Tuesday. I'm thinking FD may tease this out just a bit because we're all, you know, NOT expecting that. I'm thinking that any attempts to jump to systems ahead of them may result in the type of damage that the Fishdinner Kingfisher experienced.

Now that they're here, they can make that lazy turn right or left, up or down without a screeching of cosmic tires.

"He he, hey, Bob, watch the reaction the humans give when I suddenly make a turn 20 degrees upward towards that heavily populated system."

Bob: "Oh, that is so funny! Look at them scatter. The queen is going to really enjoy this bunch."

 

[AceMcKool]

So is anyone moving their carriers away from the bubble before Doomsday the 29th?

I dunno, may be have a farewell party for 3.8 somewhere?

 

[Biff Stryker]

Like Mercenary II: Damocles, where if you blew up the PC in the author's house in game the entire star system ceased to exist?

Um spoilers please?

 

[CMDR Timber McWolf]

Um spoilers please?

Do you plan on playing a game from the earlier days, like about 6 or so years after Elite was born?

 

[Jorki Rasalas]

I'm going to go out on a rather thin and very long branch here but I don't think they'll be at their ultimate destination by the time the servers come up on Tuesday. I'm thinking FD may tease this out just a bit because we're all, you know, NOT expecting that. I'm thinking that any attempts to jump to systems ahead of them may result in the type of damage that the Fishdinner Kingfisher experienced.

Now that they're here, they can make that lazy turn right or left, up or down without a screeching of cosmic tires.

"He he, hey, Bob, watch the reaction the humans give when I suddenly make a turn 20 degrees upward towards that heavily populated system."

Bob: "Oh, that is so funny! Look at them scatter. The queen is going to really enjoy this bunch."

Bertha!

All Thargoids are female!

 

[CMDR Timber McWolf]

Bertha!

All Thargoids are female!

Did you check?

 

[Jmanis]

Bertha!

All Thargoids are female!

Did you check?

Paging @RELSPI ...

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I'm going to go out on a rather thin and very long branch here but I don't think they'll be at their ultimate destination by the time the servers come up on Tuesday.

Looking at Canonn's timing estimates for their current hops, that seems impossible now, unless some of them want to stop a few hundred LY short of the bubble.

On the other side, #1 will go through Swahku this afternoon and be on its way to another system (if it doesn't stop there) before U14 even starts. Wonder if anything will happen to the two outposts and tens of settlements in the system? (And what that implies for the Kingfisher sabotage theory if they all survive...)

 

[Jorki Rasalas]

Did you check?

It’s in the Codex, the book of truth given to us by the all-powerful deities The Developers!

Personally I have no wish to closely examine the intimate parts of said insectoids

As an explorer and Quester after Raxxla I prefer to keep a little distance away from them, preferably at least a couple of kylies...

 

[Leadfoot]

Bertha!

All Thargoids are female!

Well, there ARE some drones in there. Gotta give them SOMETHING to do before mating (and getting their heads eaten off).

 

[Leadfoot]

On the other side, #1 will go through Swahku this afternoon and be on its way to another system (if it doesn't stop there) before U14 even starts. Wonder if anything will happen to the two outposts and tens of settlements in the system? (And what that implies for the Kingfisher sabotage theory if they all survive...)

I'm wondering if we'll get reports that the two outposts have been overrun by on-foot Thargoids. Or maybe they'll be too small to be noticed. Is anyone heading there today? Just for science, of course.

 

[Danieros]

When Odyssey released we didn't get systems populated with atmo-only assets, unlike in Horizons which has a bunch of systems without outposts/starports, meaning they were Horizons-only.

While I think it's unlikely, a way they could handle the thargoid threat is to seed in odyssey-only asset systems, so they can be the targets for the stargoids, at least initially.

 

[Jabo Zerstorer]

When Odyssey released we didn't get systems populated with atmo-only assets, unlike in Horizons which has a bunch of systems without outposts/starports, meaning they were Horizons-only.

While I think it's unlikely, a way they could handle the thargoid threat is to seed in odyssey-only asset systems, so they can be the targets for the stargoids, at least initially.

Exobiology was atmo-only (besides making the non-atmo one's scannable).

But yes, in regard to Thargoid and Guardian stuff, that's still non-atmo.