Nope.
Powerplay failed because of bad design. There is an extremely limited number of activities, while the base games has a terrific mix. The rules of the game encourages 5th column play to disrupt a Power over the actual undermining mechanism. And said mechanism includes a "once then done" immunity to undermining via fortification, as opposed to a contest. The design has limited appeal in the first place, combines it with rules almost guaranteed to ensure stagnation, and tops it off with making it easy for hostile players to disrupt a Power from within.
Powerplay failed for these reasons (some you correctly identify):
Early period:
Merit decay
Low rewards
Obscure rules
Bugs
Unrewarding gameplay
Bugs
Missing features
(Some low level) 5C
Late period:
Endemic 5C
Bugs
Lack of development
Defence far too easy / Consolidation blunting attacks to uselessness leading to:
Static bubble
Modes plays into that simp,y because its far too easy to fortify in modes where NPC opposition is hardly there. With no resistance that flow is predictable and 100% guaranteed. Open is not going to completely stop fortification, but it will disrupt some of it, and its that disruption thats desirable as it introduces an unpredictable element into a static model.
Compared to that, the "impact" of modes is negligible. Let's do the math, shall we? I'm kind of curious to see how that might shake out.
The issue of having Open only is to really give a reason for Powerplay to still remain in the game.It offers something new, that if popular would draw more people into it. More population equals more interaction.
We have to make some assumptions, of course, because Frontier isn't providing any hard data on the subject:
From Steamspy, the average and median player plays about five hours over a two week period. That seems really low to me, but who am I to argue with actual data? Also from Steamspy, the sum of peak players over the last week is 39,746. From SteamCharts, the sum of concurrent players per hour over the last 24 hours at the time of this writing is 83,651, and the relationship between that sum and peak players that day is 15.5:1. This brings the total number of "hours played" on Steam, over the last seven days, to 617,964. Divide this by 2.5, and you get 247,000 "players" on Steam. Let's round that up to 250,000 just to make the math easier in the future. Double that, and you get 500,000 "players" on the PC.
- The PowerPlayer base reflects the overall Elite Dangerous player base.
- The overall player base reflects the Steam player base.
- The Steam player base represents about a quarter of the overall player base, with an even distribution between non-Steam PC players, XBox, and PS4 players.
Time for another assumption: the PowerPlayer-base represents about 10% of the overall player base. This means that there are 50,000 "players" each week involved in PowerPlay. Of those, roughly 20% are involved with shift work, and thus face no effective opposition when they play. This brings the total "players" that can potentially be your opposition down to 40,000. According to Inara, there are 709 control systems. Divide the "players" equally between these systems, and you get 56 "players" per system. Spread out those "players" evenly throughout the week (2.5 hours in a 168 hour period), and you get an effective player density, at any time, of...
0.8 "players" per system per hour. And this for everything: fortification, undermining, preparation, and expansion. If time spent on these activities are roughly equal, which is one last assumption, that means that there are 0.2 "players" fortifying (aka hauling) and 0.2 "players" undermining (aka "opposition") a system within any particular hour.
But wait, I'm not finished!
That fortifier isn't spending most of their time in that particular system! A good Commander can "speed trade" a T9 from station to station in about four minutes, only one of which would be spent in Supercruise at their destination. Add in an average of four jumps there, and four jumps back, at 45 seconds each, and you get about ten minutes per trip, or six trips per hour, during which there's only six minutes where they could potentially share an instance with an underminer... if said underminer spends all their time hanging around in Supercruise waiting for the fortifier to arrive, instead of, you know, undermining the system.
You make assumptions based on pure maths which is fine to a point, however:
Under the new system of inbound fortifying someone can hang out in the capital and see ships pass in. Take an average powers amount of systems (say, 70) each has a demand to fortify to say, 5000 merits. Thats 350000 merits if that power and system is not UMed past 100%. Thats 466 ish (70 x 5000 / 750 or the largest cargo available) possible encounters in the capital as a start. If dumpy cargo vessels are too slow then that number goes up to 1500 or so with smaller, faster ships.
Now, if someone UMs that system past 100% you have to respond. That means someone has to fortify over and over and keep on fortifying and risking jumping in and out of a capital as someone attacks. Now, if this is happening attackers will know that defender is trying to keep solvent. Attackers can potentially keep fortification going indefinitely as long as they attack, forcing more and more players to swing the tide one way or the other.
Its the same for preparation wars. These can get to insane amounts with millions of merits- thats like 1340 trips that simply don't stop until you win or you run out of cash or time. You know exactly where your enemy will be. What if you could slow them down while your prep cargo ships (in the same system as well visiting the same stations) deliver to keep up? Do you see how objectives focus players and not space them apart?
What about expansions? These do not have a finite trigger to win either. Again you have ships coming in over and over fighting. Combat expansions have ships in melee, damaged ships leaving or dropping merits, haul expansions have haulers while others attack in the same system.
In reality Powers fight enemies, and not everyone at once, so distributing players evenly over the whole bubble is not representative. The new system focuses players into really three main areas: the capital, preparation systems and expansions. Powers also have teams and groups that do different things. Quite often they rotate or multitask.
In the end we simply don't know enough until its tried.
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