Post-Thargoid Recovery State Research

Howdy, let me start with a quick introduction. I am CMDR Light027, a member of the management team for Operation Ida. We are the station repair specialists and are an independent collection of pilots from numerous groups and factions, to date we have 220 station repairs under our belts.

Getting to the point, with the shift in the way station repair works under the new Thargoid war, we have been focusing on learning the mechanics of the "Post-Thargoid Recovery" system state. So far we have primarily focused on the HIP 23617 system as it was the first to go into "recovery" state. Regarding the recovery state, it appears to last 4 weeks, comprised of 4x1 week "repair cycles", however unlike the Invasion and Alert states the system progress bar does NOT reset after each weekly cycle.

As we began tracking repairs and monitoring the progress bar for HIP 23716 we began to notice some strange behavior regarding timing of the bar visually increasing. On Thursday (Dec 22nd, 1 week into recovery at HIP 23716) an additional 8 systems went into recovery, we have noticed similar behavior on all of their progress bars as well.
Here is our hypothesis, evidence and theory, with an included link to our collected data.

Hypothesis:
  • The progress bar for Post-Thargoid Recovery is automatic.
    • The system is designed with preset intervals of time so that the bar is filled by the end of the full 4-week timer.
    • The speed at which the bar is filled is not impacted by the number of repair missions completed or supplies delivered.
Explanation for hypothesis:
  • 50 total "chevrons" in progress bar
  • Total recovery timer: 4 weeks
  • 4 * 7 days = 28 days
  • 28 * 24 hours = 672 hours
  • 672 / 50 chevrons = 13.44 hours per chevron
Evidence:*
  • Consistent period of time (≈13 hours) documented between chevron increases with <100 tons of mission cargo delivered.
  • Consistent period of time (≈13 hours) documented between chevron increases with >150,000 tons of mission cargo delivered.
  • Consistent period of time (≈13 hours) documented between chevron increases with >1,000,000 tons delivered and >2,800 repair missions completed since begining of recovery state.
  • Further evidence including observed progress bar increases compared to estimated timing of increases visible on the "Data" tab.
  • 8 additional recovery systems, added at the start of the second week, all progressing concurrently at the same rate of time.**
Theory:
  • A chevron should appear every 13.44 hours (13 hours, 26 minutes, and 24 seconds), regardless of level of work completed.
*All data compiled from tracking done in HIP 23716. See the Data and Screenshots tabs on linked spreadsheet for further evidence.
**Timing may vary from math provided above due to initial progress bar on each system starting with 1 chevron instead of 0.


Link to our spreadsheet will full data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QykBh3UgezQmQOD3cYT2J8IygfezLjcFJWEH4Bb3CsI/edit?usp=sharing

The spreadsheet linked above contains a full chart of our observed increases in the progress bar at HIP 23716 compared to a full list of the estimated times for all previous and future increases. If you are skeptical please consider watching for one of the future changes yourself. (note there appears to be up to 5min of delay before the bar visually increases).

We would also like to stress to please not take this thread as a complaint, attack, or anything other than a direct release of information to the public. We feel researching and learning about how these new systems work is essential to humanity surviving this new conflict. Ultimately what this means for us at Operation Ida is we may need to adapt and transform into a hauling focused group as it appears repair and recovery is not currently impactful.

Thank you for reading, fly safe, and happy hauling.
o7
Operation Ida Management
Math and Science.png
 
Hello all! I do appreciate all the of the time and effort that Light and other management of Operation Ida put into this research and science. I am a returning player to Elite as the latest update brought me back to the game to help with the thargoid war. I discovered Operation Ida as I returned as it closely fits how I like to play the game. I was super pumped to help with the invasions, and eventually to help with the repairing of the stations. I felt like I finally had an identity and purpose in Elite! Once HIP 23716 went into Post-Thargoid recovery status, we went to work. We realized that it wasn't the typical repairing that we have seen in the past. Then we find with the current research that no matter how much cargo we haul or however many missions we complete, nothing seems to change the rate of how the system progresses through the Post-Thargoid Recovery. I really feel like this could have been an awesome opportunity for a group like Operation Ida to really shine, where we could put the final touches on a system to finalize the systems of what AXI, PDES, and other groups/CMDRs are doing for the war efforts.
 
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A question—has it been established exactly what cargo qualifies as "construction materials"?

Given that the progress obviously is moving automatically, I can believe that there is also no connection between deliveries and progress. The worry is that the outstanding scale of test performed by Operation Ida relies on the cargo definition being established already, and the hypothesis itself precludes such being known via testing. Has the definition of "construction materials" been stated officially for the purpose of a Recovery system?

Thank you all ever so much for the testing; giving your time so that other Commanders can save theirs is most wonderful!
 
A question—has it been established exactly what cargo qualifies as "construction materials"?

Given that the progress obviously is moving automatically, I can believe that there is also no connection between deliveries and progress. The worry is that the outstanding scale of test performed by Operation Ida relies on the cargo definition being established already, and the hypothesis itself precludes such being known via testing. Has the definition of "construction materials" been stated officially for the purpose of a Recovery system?

Thank you all ever so much for the testing; giving your time so that other Commanders can save theirs is most wonderful!
It has not been fully, no, the question about what "Construction materials" exactly meant is something we are still trying to figure out. In previous repairs we understood repair commodities to be a random-ish selection of 15 from this list:
Beryllium, Indium, Gallium, Tantalum, Lithium, Titanium, Copper, Polymers, Semiconductors, Water Purifiers, Robotics, Auto-Fabricators, Ceramic Composites, Power Converter, Natural Fabrics, Aluminium, CMM Composite, Computer Components, Emergency Power Cells, Energy Grid Assembly, Insulating Membrane, Power Generators, Superconductors, Synthetic Fabrics

Due to the fact that we did not get a list provided for these stations, and the matching locked demand for them was not observed, we strayed away from directly hauling cargo and instead focused on completing the "repair"/"repair contract" missions that are available at stations in repair in the recovery systems. These missions seem to primarily request commodities from the list above, interestingly enough, with a few additions, like HN Shock Mounts, Water, and some others.
 
It's just weird to have a damaged station issue repair contracts when the requested materials/commodities don't affect the state of repairs. I wonder if it's intended that way or if FDev out-FDev'ed themselves again. :unsure:
 
As it stands now, it's probably more beneficial to extend the recovery state as long as possible - while in recovery it appears to be locked out of being invaded again. Once that timer fills, it's eligible for Alert/Invasion/Control etc.

Would be nice if working to beat the auto-recovery timer caused the system to be "fortified" against goids for a period of time after recovery completes.

Right now, even if you could speed up the recovery you wouldn't actually want to, it's a detriment to the war.

Like, add a second progress bar for "early recovery". The original one fills automatically and the system becomes normal when it completes and can be targeted again. The new one fills from player actions and if it completes, the recovery still proceeds as normal but once it is out of recovery it also enters a fortified state where it can't be targeted again for like 1 month.
 
As it stands now, it's probably more beneficial to extend the recovery state as long as possible - while in recovery it appears to be locked out of being invaded again. Once that timer fills, it's eligible for Alert/Invasion/Control etc.
Right now, even if you could speed up the recovery you wouldn't actually want to, it's a detriment to the war.

Probably not true, or at best we do not or cannot know that yet. For that to be true, it would have to be the demonstrable case that fewer eligible Alert targets implies fewer total Alerts. A perfectly valid alternative hypothesis is that we get the same total Alerts, just in different systems, in which case it makes little difference whether a Recovery system is complete or not.


Would be nice if working to beat the auto-recovery timer caused the system to be "fortified" against goids for a period of time after recovery completes.

Agreed on this part, though! That would make for an interesting approach to prioritising the delivery capacity.
 
Is it possible that the bar is a game broken up into 50 periods. If players win a period, then the chevron moves. If players fail to do enough repair, then the chevron doesn't move.
 
Is it possible that the bar is a game broken up into 50 periods. If players win a period, then the chevron moves. If players fail to do enough repair, then the chevron doesn't move.
It is possible however that is fairly difficult to test.

I can tell you that, especially on some of the newer recovery systems, we have seen extremely little work done. As far as nothing being reported on Inara, yet the progress bars are continuing to progress as expected. If it is the case that a minimum amount of work is required, that minimum is very, very, low.
 
Although it's disappointing that hauling isn't helpful in recovery, I've heard it's invaluable in other states. I'm really pleased to finally receive procedural mini-CG gameplay at last, although I was hoping to see it for colonisation and terraforming.
 
Regarding hauling for station repairs, here is an observation - Legendre Orbital and Cunningham Depot in HIP 25679 are showing their lists of needed repair materials while Hambly Hub (same system) does not.

Not sure if the station repair process is bugged, or if this is FDev intent.

Fly safe.
 
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Regarding hauling for station repairs, here is an observation - Legendre Orbital in HIP 25679 shows a list of needed repair materials (as it should). I checked one other station in another system, thinking the bug was fixed, and no list was available. Not sure what this means, but the mentioned list functions properly as it recognizes deposits made.

Not sure if the station repair process is bugged, or if this is FDev intent.

Fly safe.
Thank you for the heads up on that! We are investigating now!
 
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