General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

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WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
Meanwhile today in The Lancet:

"Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia...
...11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure"


Remember that many milder cases probably go unreported, but still that's a pretty alarming number. Especially because the number of cases outside China is growing exponentially, just like they are in China.

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Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood
Mr Ross isn't wrong to do an economic rather than medical projection. He's batting in his crease.
Where he's in error is simple though: he has made the assumption that the illness will somehow remain only in China.

There's a better than average chance that it shall not. And he has just made it MORE likely. Let me elaborate:

China now has something to gain by letting it spread internationally.

And once it gets to his doorstep, methinks the story may not be so good as in a totalitarian centrally controlled country with an army administered health service (where there are no idiots drinking bleach.) If China can't control it, nowhere can.

We can project that the first country to gain population immunity will be China, that the centrally controlled recovery will be in China, and that when the rest of the industrial world is crippled and looking to try to cope, the resident expertise will be in China.

I fear that we shall measure Mr Ross' words soon. And he himself may be measuring his own lack of immunity. He can thank his own intelligence for that.
 

Manticore

Manticore
Robin of Spiritwood said:
China now has something to gain by letting it spread internationally.
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My comment about bleach was facetious..... the absurdity of peoples' reactions is distressing; drinking bleach what are they thinking and what a dumb reaction?!?!?!?!?!?!

As for China: Funny how trouble with Hong Kong and international trade seems to have slipped off the global radar now.

If I was into conspiracy theories..........
 

jasonbarron

jasonbarron
Robin of Spiritwood said:
Mr Ross isn't wrong to do an economic rather than medical projection. He's batting in his crease.
Where he's in error is simple though: he has made the assumption that the illness will somehow remain only in China.

There's a better than average chance that it shall not. And he has just made it MORE likely. Let me elaborate:

China now has something to gain by letting it spread internationally.

And once it gets to his doorstep, methinks the story may not be so good as in a totalitarian centrally controlled country with an army administered health service (where there are no idiots drinking bleach.) If China can't control it, nowhere can.

We can project that the first country to gain population immunity will be China, that the centrally controlled recovery will be in China, and that when the rest of the industrial world is crippled and looking to try to cope, the resident expertise will be in China.

I fear that we shall measure Mr Ross' words soon. And he himself may be measuring his own lack of immunity. He can thank his own intelligence for that.
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For once I agree with you.
 

Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood
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lysan

lysan
Robin of Spiritwood said:
Mr Ross isn't wrong to do an economic rather than medical projection. He's batting in his crease.
Where he's in error is simple though: he has made the assumption that the illness will somehow remain only in China.

There's a better than average chance that it shall not. And he has just made it MORE likely. Let me elaborate:

China now has something to gain by letting it spread internationally.

And once it gets to his doorstep, methinks the story may not be so good as in a totalitarian centrally controlled country with an army administered health service (where there are no idiots drinking bleach.) If China can't control it, nowhere can.

We can project that the first country to gain population immunity will be China, that the centrally controlled recovery will be in China, and that when the rest of the industrial world is crippled and looking to try to cope, the resident expertise will be in China.

I fear that we shall measure Mr Ross' words soon. And he himself may be measuring his own lack of immunity. He can thank his own intelligence for that.
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It’s gonna impact the global economy aka hurt it, I know because in my company (The company I work for) it’s already an issue, and it’s millions of dollars.
Corona is already in the US and spreading, with a 14 day incubation period it could run wild very fast, especially on the east coast.
 

lysan

lysan
Manticore said:
My comment about bleach was facetious..... the absurdity of peoples' reactions is distressing; drinking bleach what are they thinking and what a dumb reaction?!?!?!?!?!?!

As for China: Funny how trouble with Hong Kong and international trade seems to have slipped off the global radar now.

If I was into conspiracy theories..........
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But hey 👋 you are not, we don’t talk abut that here, we are grownups here chuckling in the background
 

Synkreto

Synkreto
Robin of Spiritwood said:
There are good understandable updates at Medcram, just google
Medcram, Update, Coronavirus
Material is aimed at medical specialists, but presented in easy language.


There's a ten year old with NO symptoms, tested positive and has pneumonia on chest CT scan. Where can I get lungs like that?
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Thank you for the pointer !
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
Robin of Spiritwood said:
There are good understandable updates at Medcram, just google
Medcram, Update, Coronavirus
Material is aimed at medical specialists, but presented in easy language.


There's a ten year old with NO symptoms, tested positive and has pneumonia on chest CT scan. Where can I get lungs like that?
Click to expand...
This video from today describes the problems with calculating the mortality rate, being that many milder cases might not be reported. This means that the mortality rate MIGHT be lower than the current 2.2%. The rate for spanish flu was 2.5%, but if we assume that only 10% of the cases are reported, then the actual rate for 2019-nCoV might be well below 1% putting it in the same category as a flu. This is a very weak hypothesis of my own, but it might calm down people somewhat.

Also, it seems that the virus spreads both before and after symptoms, meaning that the general warning of avoiding people showing symptoms might be a false security. Isolation is so far the best prevention. I have also read rumors that transmission takes 15 minutes during face to face contact, and two hours in the same room, just to put things in perspective. No need to panic if you see your neighbor at the other side of the street.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW3xqcGidpQ
 

Becks

Becks
Since we have quite a lot of chinese colleagues in the departments we're administrating and already suspected cases in the city I live in, this has made me slightly nervous.
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
Becks said:
Since we have quite a lot of chinese colleagues in the departments we're administrating and already suspected cases in the city I live in, this has made me slightly nervous.
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This is indeed worrisome. I've been following the spread of the virus, trying to do a simple model based on the data, and both in China, and outside, the number of cases have been growing exponentially. They still do, even though the growth rate seems to have fallen slightly, probably due to the increased focus on the virus in recent days.

Don't panic though. First of all panic often makes you do something stupid. Secondly, this is one of those events that you and I as individuals have zero influence on. I sincerely doubt even the WHO or the Chinese government have much influence either, even though quarantine definitely seems to work. Finally, we still have very limited data, but from the data we have, it seems that there are at least 130 cases outside China, and no fatalities among those patients so far. That supports that the mortality rate is relatively low.

Today the Daily Whale has an article pointing out that the Chinese might be covering up the true number of deaths by cremating bodies that haven't been recorded in the official figures. That is possibly true, but first of all that also goes for the confirmed cases, where mild cases might not go on record, and summed up that would give a similar mortality rate or lower. Furthermore, if the virus was far more deadly than indicated by the Chinese data, then we would probably have seen at least one death among the current 130 cases outside China. Statistics is very useful, but it also tells us that we still have very limited data, leading to wider spread of the predictions.

Honestly, having followed this closely for a couple of weeks, my first impression was that the severity of the epidemic (how fast it was spreading) was kept secret because of fears for the Chinese Stock Exchange (and that pulling every other stock with it), but right now it seems that the important factor for the individual, being the mortality rate, is serious but not as scary as Sars, Ebola or Mers. Assuming that it's around 2%, then there is a 98% chance of recovery. That's worth remembering if the panic starts taking hold of you. Especially when you begin reading that it spreads a lot faster than predicted.

It's pure gut feeling, but I think we might overestimate the mortality of the virus as much as we underestimate its ability to spread. It's pure intuition from looking at the data, but at least it calms me down (quite a lot).
 

Chris Simon

Chris Simon
WeComeInPeace said:
it seems that there are at least 130 cases outside China, and no fatalities among those patients so far. That supports that the mortality rate is relatively low.
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After watching the videos, my take on this is basically that nobody knows how many people are infected in China - could be tens or hundreds of thousands), though I am inclined to belive their death count with the caveat that there may be people who never sought help and will be find later in their homes. But as far as the rest of the world goes - thanks to the media humbug - EVERYBODY with symptoms even remotely resembling a flu got tested and got help. That would mean that the worldwide numbers could be quite accurate AND that the mortality rate is really low to none if treatment is started in time.
To me it seems to be relatively under control.
 

jasonbarron

jasonbarron
WeComeInPeace said:
This is indeed worrisome. I've been following the spread of the virus, trying to do a simple model based on the data, and both in China, and outside, the number of cases have been growing exponentially. They still do, even though the growth rate seems to have fallen slightly, probably due to the increased focus on the virus in recent days.

Don't panic though. First of all panic often makes you do something stupid. Secondly, this is one of those events that you and I as individuals have zero influence on. I sincerely doubt even the WHO or the Chinese government have much influence either, even though quarantine definitely seems to work. Finally, we still have very limited data, but from the data we have, it seems that there are at least 130 cases outside China, and no fatalities among those patients so far. That supports that the mortality rate is relatively low.

Today the Daily Whale has an article pointing out that the Chinese might be covering up the true number of deaths by cremating bodies that haven't been recorded in the official figures. That is possibly true, but first of all that also goes for the confirmed cases, where mild cases might not go on record, and summed up that would give a similar mortality rate or lower. Furthermore, if the virus was far more deadly than indicated by the Chinese data, then we would probably have seen at least one death among the current 130 cases outside China. Statistics is very useful, but it also tells us that we still have very limited data, leading to wider spread of the predictions.

Honestly, having followed this closely for a couple of weeks, my first impression was that the severity of the epidemic (how fast it was spreading) was kept secret because of fears for the Chinese Stock Exchange (and that pulling every other stock with it), but right now it seems that the important factor for the individual, being the mortality rate, is serious but not as scary as Sars, Ebola or Mers. Assuming that it's around 2%, then there is a 98% chance of recovery. That's worth remembering if the panic starts taking hold of you. Especially when you begin reading that it spreads a lot faster than predicted.

It's pure gut feeling, but I think we might overestimate the mortality of the virus as much as we underestimate its ability to spread. It's pure intuition from looking at the data, but at least it calms me down (quite a lot).
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Good analysis. I feel much the same way.
 

Arry

Arry
As each day passes, things are becoming clearer; especially the skies.

Stocks in mask manufacturing, are going up and up.
Stocks in air travel companies, are going down.
Gold is always a good buy, during times, like these.

So that is the important stuff, sorted out.

They say that the death rate, is still under 2%, which is still less, than most modern flu outbreaks.
They say that the transmission rate is about 1:2.5. One person infected, will give it to about, two and a half people. There is a big party in London tonight, lots of like-minded people getting together, to celebrate their own stupidity. Once again, totally oblivious, of how their actions, will have serious consequences for others.

The only possible positive outcome: Such viruses become weaker, with the more people becoming infected.

An amusing thing, which I observed at my local supermarket this morning. How people were giving a wide birth, to anyone, looking slightly Asian.
 

Chris Simon

Chris Simon
Arry said:
How people were giving a wide birth, to anyone, looking slightly Asian.
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That's the sad part. I'm encountering it myself with my tea. I'd rather not count the number of people I had to explain to that no, corona virus can't survive on tea leaves and no, even if it could you would have to literally eat the dry leaves as hot water kills everything in them and most importantly all current teas are from last year's spring. 🙄
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
A virus doesn't survive for that long outside its host. In some cases up to 24 hours, but typically it won't survive more than half an hour. Another thing worth noting is that even though you could potentially get infected by one single virus, the amount of virus you're infected with also will have some effect on whether you get ill or not, because your immune system should be able to cope with smaller infections.

Personally I normally get a little tense in crowded places when people don't respect my "private sphere" with a radius of several meters, but these days I get all the space I want. If not, then a small cough quickly clears the area :)
 

Manticore

Manticore
lysan said:
But hey 👋 you are not, we don’t talk abut that here, we are grownups here chuckling in the background
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Well I'm sure most people saw this news story about a corpse lying in the street in Wuhan. I'm posting the image behind spoiler tags because I'm sure a lot of people could find it disturbing.

(I don't find it disturbing. I've seen corpses in the streets of India and floating down the Ganges, or burning on a funeral pyre, on more than one occasion; a corpse is a corpse).

16x9

An elderly man wearing a face mask lying on the pavement after he collapsed and died near a hospital in Wuhan.

I don't think these images help. All one isolated image does is create fear around peoples' lack of understanding.

Yes this is a bad situation we are all in and I, personally, don't like to see people suffer and die but, in my opinion, the media doesn't help by spreading these images far and wide.

But hey! That's the media's job isn't it? Creating fear and uncertainty so someone's agenda(s) can be pushed.

Memo to Fear: Yes; we know thing are bad. We are doing what we can now and trying to do more. Signed, Humanity.
 
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