General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

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Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
Today all the regions of metropolitan France have now entered the phase of seasonal flu epidemic (not the new coronavirus, of course).

In France, seasonal flu affects 2 to 6 million people each year. It causes tens of thousands of people to pass through emergency departments and kills 10 000 people on average.

Last winter, however, the epidemic had resulted in lower mortality than in previous years, but still significant, in relation to its short duration, with an estimated 8 100 deaths during the two-month epidemic phase.
 

znôrt

znôrt
Robin of Spiritwood said:
It IS suspicious that Chinese provinces have >700 infected cases and zero deaths, but Hong Kong gets 15 cases and somebody dies. Or the Phillipines gets less than 5 cases, and another person dies.
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15 or 5 cases aren't a meaningful population, unless what you are suggesting is that the numbers are being faked and are much higher. hongkong is 21 cases today and still only 1 reported death.

with the given numbers the vast majority of deaths are in hubei, it's quite exceptional, giving a provisional mortality rate that is disproportionate even with rest of mainland china. my impression is that it's just deficient care, they are completely swamped. videos have been leaked with patients piling up in corridors with cadavers lying around. another of a man deliberately coughing at sanitarians out of rage that there was no medicine available for him. it must be total chaos there.
 
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WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace

znôrt

znôrt
WeComeInPeace said:
Thanks for the link. If people get cramped into an overfilled hospital, they also spread bacteria and fungi that can lead to complications and that will raise the fatality. That also goes for any country outside China.
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indeed, they just happen to have more patients they can treat there. i bet that detailed data about hubei (haven't found any) would replicate the same regarding wuhan and the rest of the country. wuhan is just ground zero and i suspect they are collapsed and most of the fatalities come from there. with these numbers, not even the new hospitals built in a rush will be enough, and you still need staff and stuff.

what i still can't grasp is why they don't fly those people abroad to receive proper care. i guess that's ... "complicated".
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
ArchEmperor said:
The virus will stop spreading and will get extinct soon.

This is why:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovJcsL7vyrk
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:) I was just about to post that video here yesterday, to cheer people up a little.

OT: But it's a very interesting video. I remember when computers became fast enough to visualize Mandelbrot fractals. My PC XT could render a fractal through my Hercules monochrome graphics card at ultrahigh 720x350 pixel resolution on a green CRT, in only 48 hours!! Wow times were great and the development of the computer since my Vic-20 was already then amazing.

If you don't know him already, check out Max Tegmark. He's a really nice dude, and he's got some pretty interesting thoughts, out there where science reunites with philosophy, about the Universe (that is everything) being basically all math. I personally don't think so, but there is no doubt in my mind that math is the "language of nature". If you want to "understand" reality, flip out the calculator.
 

Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood
This is a pulse oximeter.
Costs less than 20 $

This is a portable oxygen machine, that makes oxygen from air, powered by electricity.
Costs less than $400.

It is not equal to ventillation in an ICU, but a moderately sick person could be handled at home and kept out of public exposure, till the blood O2 level drops to 92%. There would be risk to the caregivers, but in an epidemic, you could fend for your family, up to a point.

The new Wuhan hospitals total beds can only house the new daily caseload. The effort by the authorities will be just became unequal to the task.

On the bright side, this is the immunization rate too.
 

Chris Simon

Chris Simon
Shinji Ikari said:
Why would it go extinct? If modelled by those equations, it'd only go extinct if r was small enough as to make a constant decline in numbers but that is not what we are seeing.
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I think what he meant to say was "the branch that is transmissible to humans will disappear as we gain immunity", naturally the virus will still happily live in which ever animal species it was that gave us the innitial kick. Just like MERS still exists in camels and SARS in bats, it's just that the specific mutation of the virus that can be dangerous to humans died out.
Well, it didn't "die out", of course, we helped a lot.
Humans are great at making things "die out".
 
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Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
February 6, 2020

Infection.jpg
 

Robin of Spiritwood

Robin of Spiritwood
Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GT3_A1bf9pU


Medcram Update 12, discusses the ACE2 receptor, the spike protein, and a couple ways of possibly messing with the union.
This is an idea I had posted about previously, but I have no means of doing the research here- we already have ACE-1 inhibitor drugs, and the 2 enzymes are 60% biosimilar, so maybe there already is a medicine in use that could block the virus. But we have not identified it. Possible candidates are Vasotec, Capoten, Zestril, Ramipril, Accupril, etc.

High blood pressure is a risk factor for dying from Corona virus. Likely because of more ACE activity so more virus receptors.

www.thedailybeast.com

China Province ‘Locking People in Their Homes’ to Stop Virus

Households in Zhejiang have been issued “passports” that allow one person per home to go outside every two days during coronavirus lockdown.
www.thedailybeast.com www.thedailybeast.com

You have to give the Chinese Authorities full marks for extreme measures. Banning funerals as "unnecessary" during an epidemic?

Over 3000 new cases today.
Say 10% need hospitalization.

Averaging 7 days in hospital, and a 6 day doubling time, they would need 3,500 beds by next week which is twice bigger than the constructed facility, just to keep up. Not counting those already in hospital.
 
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