General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Wuhan plans to round up those suspected of having the virus to be placed in isolation, in some kind of mass quarantine camps, The New York Times reported. China's Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said that city officials should go door to door to check residents' temperatures...

No more bed space in Wuhan now.

There is footage of people being dragged out of their homes by white clothed squads, and transported away in a metal box about the size of a fridge, chained to the bed of a pick-up. This is by no means civilized medical ambulance transport.

The hospitals are crammed full, so ... where are they going?

Now we know. Well, we sort of know. There isn't going to be any footage of the destination, that's for sure. Because this is no longer a medical solution. China cannot control the epidemic. The Chinese Government cannot be seen to fail. Suddenly everything changed.

If you are not in China, thank your lucky stars, (if you have not done so already). North Korea might try this kind of stuff, maybe also the House of Saud under current management. We might assume that Western Democracies would never do that, just as we might assume there would never be trials without witnesses.

Because that would never happen where we live, right?

 

[jasonbarron]

Those of us lucky enough to live in western democracies don't have to assume anything; it's highly likely that in the next 8-12 weeks we're going to find out one way or the other.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Some mildly interesting items:

The person stayed in the small town of Les Contamines-Montjoie, in southern France, where there is a ski resort.

From the story about the cluster of 5 in France. A Briton from Singapore ( note- no Chinese contact) visited a town, and was the index case for this one.

Les Contamines translates to "The Infected", which is a bit weird, but fits with the story.
To be fair we have places with odd names here, like Sangre Grande (The Giant Haemorrhage) named for a red coloured river, and Mon Repos ( My Place of Rest), but Barbados has the worst one. It's the distillery for their rum, Mount Gay. ( Linked to prove that I'm not making it up )

There was some minor furor at the local public hospital today. Read the short story there before the rant, if you will?

And now, my rant:

Spoiler

There is a reason I keep mentioning mask shortages.
They are an index of human behaviour. I frequently assume that people will infer the message. That is foolish of me.

Any new case of viral pneumonia is going to cause concern now.

This includes the millions of cases of regular 'flu that are always running.
This is inevitable, and it is going to happen wherever we are. The case can have nothing whatsoever to do with corona virus.
Doesn't matter. People will mistrust the authorities, and assume the worst. It always happens. The shortages are coming, because coronavirus is like the Black Plague of 2020 in the minds of the public. The last time we had a minor crisis here, I was shocked to see how fast the rioting started. No fuel, no food, and a totally paralyzed police force with no orders. Why were they rioting? It wasn't rational!

Well surprise: People are not rational!
Everybody in China has a mask. Masks obviously don't do a whole lot to help. That didn't stop locals from scrambling for them, or Amazon from selling out.

Get your basic supplies( you know what to get) before it gets bad, I don't care what you guys call me, it's totally fine as long as nothing bad happens to your families.
Don't panic over the disease. Just get your soap and toilet paper, ok? You'll use it anyway.

Chances are very good that we will all get sick infected in due course. Mostly, people are getting mild illness for now, and only 15% get seriously ill, enough to need a hospital. You will be OK, most likely. So no need to become Bert Gummer.

I however will be Captain Kirk.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Nope, I don’t doubt the seriousness of people dying. I doubt the doomsday scenario

Indeed for the moment no apocalypse.

In France, each year, seasonal flu / pneumonia kills an average of 10,000 people.

And between 2 and 6 million infected people.

 

[Patrick_68000]

There were Sunday, February 9, 811 deaths and 37198 cases of contamination in mainland China.

The global balance sheet of SARS exceeded.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Well, go ahead and find a post of mine denying the reality of climate change and lay it on me here, I'll wait. In the meantime, instead of obfuscating feel free to stay on topic.

Also, you can take your sophomoric attempt at laying blame and stick it.

You have a new friend, it seems !

Do not forget to note it in your directory.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Journalists are Disappearing

Well, that isn't ominous at all.

They are all dead !

 

[Patrick_68000]

No more bed space in Wuhan now.

There is footage of people being dragged out of their homes by white clothed squads, and transported away in a metal box about the size of a fridge, chained to the bed of a pick-up. This is by no means civilized medical ambulance transport.

The hospitals are crammed full, so ... where are they going?

Now we know. Well, we sort of know. There isn't going to be any footage of the destination, that's for sure. Because this is no longer a medical solution. China cannot control the epidemic. The Chinese Government cannot be seen to fail. Suddenly everything changed.

If you are not in China, thank your lucky stars, (if you have not done so already). North Korea might try this kind of stuff, maybe also the House of Saud under current management. We might assume that Western Democracies would never do that, just as we might assume there would never be trials without witnesses.

Because that would never happen where we live, right?

Hopefully the world won't find mass graves...

 

[sewerratuk]

Well, go ahead and find a post of mine denying the reality of climate change and lay it on me here, I'll wait. In the meantime, instead of obfuscating feel free to stay on topic.

Also, you can take your sophomoric attempt at laying blame and stick it.

I don’t lay the blame on anyone for the outbreak, I’m not a conspiracy theorist.

However, people stock piling provisions causes a shortage, which causes panic and a rush on the shops which causes even greater shortages, then the people that do actually need certain things cannot get them because someone else has them sat in a cupboard just in case. ‘WHO warns of global shortage of face masks and protective suits’

 

[Stigbob]

I don’t lay the blame on anyone for the outbreak, I’m not a conspiracy theorist.

However, people stock piling provisions causes a shortage, which causes panic and a rush on the shops which causes even greater shortages, then the people that do actually need certain things cannot get them because someone else has them sat in a cupboard just in case. ‘WHO warns of global shortage of face masks and protective suits’

I've already got a Brexit stockpile, I've been maintaining it for the last six months or so if you beat the panic and just sensibly bulk buy things that keep it doesn't make much difference really.

People who buy just the one meal at a time will feel the pinch and the fear of any possible shortages.

Its coming in handy today since the storm has closed the road, damaged a load of tree's and Mrs Stigbob has brought the chickens in the house.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

I don’t lay the blame on anyone for the outbreak, I’m not a conspiracy theorist.

However, people stock piling provisions causes a shortage, which causes panic and a rush on the shops which causes even greater shortages, then the people that do actually need certain things cannot get them because someone else has them sat in a cupboard just in case. ‘WHO warns of global shortage of face masks and protective suits’

That is common. People stockpile. Not that it's morally right on behalf of humanity, but everyone are egoists once the manure hits the giant fan. What surprises me is that WHO and everybody else didn't see this coming. Why don't we have a large stock of masks in case of a pandemic? Are we supposed to produce them after the need arrives?

This is, and I'm sorry for bringing it into the thread, just like climate change. People around the World assume that the different governments and the UN will take care of all those problems we individuals can't solve ourselves. Most people seem to have a naive idea, that IPCC will show up in white lab coats bringing some technological device that solves everything. Well, they don't have such a thingy. Likewise, we trust that WHO are the ones that will solve a pandemic. Just like the people of China trust their government to deal with the epidemic in Wuhan. They probably do as good as they can. Which is going door to door and putting anyone with a fewer in camps, where they are "isolated". We kind of knew this would be the case some day after watching "Outbreak", which dealt with exactly these moral issues, and the paradox between "protecting" the population vs the individual.

The epidemic started speeding up outside mainland China again:

Notice that the data doesn't correspond? Why did WHO chose not to include the 64 patients on the cruise ship in Japan as Japanese cases? My best guess is because it looks better not to.

I did a rough epidemic model yesterday. Rough because a lot of assumptions have to be made. Still, even with large scale global quarantines, I don't see a way to avoid a pandemic now. Considering how fast the virus is spreading, and the way it can infect before patients start showing symptoms, it seems that this will spread into every corner of the planet. Spanish Flu reached as far ar the Arctic, and back then we didn't have 4.1 billion air travels per year.

The death toll "if" this turns into a pandemic could be monumental. Between 50 to 300 million in my models, depending on how efficient quarantine will be. I don't believe that the hospitals outside China will be able to handle this much better than the Chinese hospitals, once the number of infected explodes in weeks time. In that case the death rate of the virus is at least the official one from Wuhan being ~4%.

This is not just a bad cold or the flu. That also explains why authorities around the World act in a way that seems like panicking. You don't see quarantines, protective suits, masks and patients isolated with the normal annual flu epidemic. Add to that the fear for the impact on the global economy and fear of public unrest due to panic, and you have a toxic cocktail.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

One more thing. When we calculate the mortality rate of 2019-nCoV, we often use deaths divided by cases. As an example, using today's numbers, we get:

CFR = 813 / 37552 = 2.2%

However, since people don't die immediately after they start showing symptoms, this calculation is wrong. The number of deaths today is relating to the number of cases ~7 days ago. Therefore a more realistic calculation might be:

CFR = 813 / 14411 = 5.6%

In the case of Sars, during the 2003 epidemic, the WHO estimated the CFR to be 4%, but after the epidemic, when all the data became available, to true value of the CFR turned out to be 9.6%.

Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

 

[Arry]

Hopefully the world won't find mass graves...

The Chinese government has stopped all funerals, as being unnecessary, at this time.

 

[jasonbarron]

I don’t lay the blame on anyone for the outbreak, I’m not a conspiracy theorist.

However, people stock piling provisions causes a shortage, which causes panic and a rush on the shops which causes even greater shortages, then the people that do actually need certain things cannot get them because someone else has them sat in a cupboard just in case. ‘WHO warns of global shortage of face masks and protective suits’

I don't recommend panic buying anything, of course. We have bulk stores in my region, and I layed in about two months worth around two weeks ago, which I keep replenishing, all without causing any hysteria. Between the foodstuffs, fuel and giant pile of AR-15 ammo, we could sit out the madness if it reaches this far.

Other than a bit of common sense preparedness life continues unchanged while I watch world events like a hawk. Perhaps my perspective is different than yours because I have small children whom I have to make life and death decisions for?

 

[WeComeInPeace]

The Chinese government has stopped all funerals, as being unnecessary, at this time.

They stopped funerals because they consider cremation more safe.

 

[znôrt]

You have to give the Chinese Authorities full marks for extreme measures. Banning funerals as "unnecessary" during an epidemic?

from your own source (): funerals and weddings. doesn't mean they don't know what to do with dead bodies, but that they consider also these gatherings of people to be an unnecessary risk of transmission. for the same reason museums, schools and entertainment sites have been closed for a while. also keep in mind that china is an atheist country. heartbreaking as this is, the fact that china is also an authoritarian state may be their best chance to contain the spread.

latest trends of new infections seem to slightly slow down. people is acting all up because the threshold of 800 dead as been passed. well, we expected that already. (very) early estimates projected 40k-70k infected in china, we're still not there. 60 infected on a ship where 3000 people gather closely together is nothing out of the ordinary, even if it produces a bump in the chart.

yes, this is likely to spread all over the world. we knew that already in january.

and no, we don't know the mortality rate. we can't possibly know, so stop making wild projections. shheeesh, get a grip, dudes. and then you talk about panic ...

want something truly sensationalist? here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1222442651028377605

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1222442651028377605

https://twitter.com/x/status/1226194881736929282

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1226194881736929282

https://twitter.com/x/status/1225440044741058562

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1225440044741058562


that's bad enough, these people are going through a very hard time. because they didn't know what came onto them, and their authorities are real arxeholes. but you know, the whole world knows and the picture outside china is completely different, even outside hubei it is. so stop reading tabloids, making up numbers and getting paranoid and just wash your hands and take elementary precautions.

 

[jasonbarron]

from your own source (): funerals and weddings. doesn't mean they don't know what to do with dead bodies, but that they consider also these gatherings of people to be an unnecessary risk of transmission. for the same reason museums, schools and entertainment sites have been closed for a while. also keep in mind that china is an atheist country. heartbreaking as this is, the fact that china is also an authoritarian state may be their best chance to contain the spread.

latest trends of new infections seem to slightly slow down. people is acting all up because the threshold of 800 dead as been passed. well, we expected that already. (very) early estimates projected 40k-70k infected in china, we're still not there. 60 infected on a ship where 3000 people gather closely together is nothing out of the ordinary, even if it produces a bump in the chart.

yes, this is likely to spread all over the world. we knew that already in january.

and no, we don't know the mortality rate. we can't possibly know, so stop making wild projections. shheeesh, get a grip, dudes. and then you talk about panic ...

want something truly sensationalist? here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1222442651028377605

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1222442651028377605

https://twitter.com/x/status/1226194881736929282

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1226194881736929282

https://twitter.com/x/status/1225440044741058562

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1225440044741058562


that's bad enough, these people are going through a very hard time. because they didn't know what came onto them, and their authorities are real arxeholes. but you know, the whole world knows and the picture outside china is completely different, even outside hubei it is. so stop reading tabloids, making up numbers and getting paranoid and just wash your hands and take elementary precautions.

I'm just shaking my head at the condescending tone here. You share video of a person (people?) getting stuffed into what looks like a mobile butcher wagon here in Montana and hauled away with their screams ringing in our ears and just go "Ah, quit being a bunch of hysterical hypochondriacs!"

You can assume your Government would never resort to such treatment, but you really have no idea, and honestly that's what the 2nd Amendment is all about in America; I assume my Government would never try to cart me and mine away in a butcher box, but I have the tools to resist should that assumption prove incorrect.

 

[Stigbob]

I'm just shaking my head at the condescending tone here. You share video of a person (people?) getting stuffed into what looks like a mobile butcher wagon here in Montana and hauled away with their screams ringing in our ears and just go "Ah, quit being a bunch of hysterical hypochondriacs!"

You can assume your Government would never resort to such treatment, but you really have no idea, and honestly that's what the 2nd Amendment is all about in America; I assume my Government would never try to cart me and mine away in a butcher box, but I have the tools to resist should that assumption prove incorrect.

You don't, you really really don't have the tools to resist the government if they ever felt the need. You'd be bringing a rifle to a fight where they operate at an altitude you can't shoot to or from behind armour you can't shoot through.

Back when it was all muzzle loaders and the second amendment was added maybe.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

from your own source (): funerals and weddings. doesn't mean they don't know what to do with dead bodies, but that they consider also these gatherings of people to be an unnecessary risk of transmission. for the same reason museums, schools and entertainment sites have been closed for a while. also keep in mind that china is an atheist country. heartbreaking as this is, the fact that china is also an authoritarian state may be their best chance to contain the spread.

latest trends of new infections seem to slightly slow down. people is acting all up because the threshold of 800 dead as been passed. well, we expected that already. (very) early estimates projected 40k-70k infected in china, we're still not there. 60 infected on a ship where 3000 people gather closely together is nothing out of the ordinary, even if it produces a bump in the chart.

yes, this is likely to spread all over the world. we knew that already in january.

and no, we don't know the mortality rate. we can't possibly know, so stop making wild projections. shheeesh, get a grip, dudes. and then you talk about panic ...

want something truly sensationalist? here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1222442651028377605

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1222442651028377605

https://twitter.com/x/status/1226194881736929282

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1226194881736929282

https://twitter.com/x/status/1225440044741058562

Source: https://twitter.com/Rntk____/status/1225440044741058562


that's bad enough, these people are going through a very hard time. because they didn't know what came onto them, and their authorities are real arxeholes. but you know, the whole world knows and the picture outside china is completely different, even outside hubei it is. so stop reading tabloids, making up numbers and getting paranoid and just wash your hands and take elementary precautions.

If you think that a cruise ship is an excellent place for transferal of this virus, then you are correct, but then consider that more than half of the global population now live in cities. Right now Wuhan is seriously down on some supplies, even though the rest of the planet is still somewhat functioning. If you take a simple rough model of how an epidemics' dynamics work, and assume that you are correct that it will become a pandemic, then this is pretty serious.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWXqXzAYe4E

 

[znôrt]

You can assume your Government would never resort to such treatment, but you really have no idea, and honestly that's what the 2nd Amendment is all about in America; I assume my Government would never try to cart me and mine away in a butcher box, but I have the tools to resist should that assumption prove incorrect.

no, they indeed will if the arxe hits the fan hard enough. and if the moment comes, your ammo won't really help you, not as much as living in a solitary and forgotten area. but it is really too early to tell. uncertainty is not doom, just uncertainty. it's a , but we have to live with it. i might be completely wrong but for the moment this thing is serious, but is unfolding better than i expected.