General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

[Robin of Spiritwood]

The official name of novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) is super bland. The one I like best was the Kung Flu.

Just a side remark, they got every single crematoria available in the region running max capacity 24/7 this is not fear mongering, it’s first eye witness reports coming out.

It is possible that they have a just very large amount of combustible medical waste to dispose of. Paper bedsheets, Kleenex, used masks, gloves, bio-suits.. etc.
Most facilities have an incinerator for that, but it would be overwhelmed by volume now.

Maps showing sulphur dioxide predictions mistaken for Wuhan cremation pollution

Satellite images have emerged showing sulphur dioxide predictions in Wuhan city where the outbreak originated.

metro.co.uk

Satellite coverage seems to support the (actual)picture of increased combustion in the area.

From Vox:

Yet, for weeks now, reports in both the scientific literature and local and international news contradict what Chinese authorities were telling the world. These reports show the outbreak started weeks or months sooner than China let on, and the virus was already spreading among people — and beyond the food market in Wuhan — in early January. Authorities also censored information and silenced the whistleblowers who tried to sound the alarm.

A study published on January 24 in The Lancet showed that in the first days of the outbreak, by January 2, more than a third of patients had no connection with the Wuhan food market, including the outbreak’s index (or first) case. What’s more, that person became ill on December 1, nearly two weeks earlier than Wuhan health authorities had said of the first case.
This means the virus could have been moving through Wuhan as early as October, Daniel Lucey, an infectious diseases physician and adjunct professor of infectious diseases at Georgetown University Medical Center, told Vox.

The Lancet paper also reported that the first person who died from the virus, on January 9, passed it along to his wife a week prior. Similarly, another recent report in the New England Journal of Medicine also shows there were already seven health care workers infected by January 11.

So there was ample evidence of person-to-person spread while the Chinese Authorities were claiming that there was not.
(My God. Lies from Politicians. It's never happened before! Thank heavens, that here in the West, our leaders are so honest. And, conversant with Science.)

Why would they lie, when the disinformation would obviously cause an increase in the epidemic? Economic terror > Infectious horror?
The Chinese Economy is obviously imperiled in the short term. But their Stock Market is going up. Why is that?
Well, their Central Bank is buying shares by the billions of dollars. More fake demand = higher prices. Postponing the crash.
After all the US is doing the very same, with printed money injected to lower the repo rate. For months now.

Oh yes, folks. Xi is now using the Trump Economic Method. Let's be loose, and call it a thing. Pretending you have money that you don't, to buy shares that would fall, at artificial high prices, so the market continues to hyperinflate instead of correcting. In the 2 biggest world economies, at the same time, during a pandemic.

I'm sure that it will all end well. What do I know? I've never even been bankrupt once. The stock markets are casinos, where you can't lose!!
That's never failed before.

 

[Shinji Ikari]

Well, their Central Bank is buying shares by the billions of dollars. More fake demand = higher prices. Postponing the crash.

The higher the fall, the harder tha crash.

 

[lysan]

Unless you built it yourself in the basement they probably know already, even if you did that they'll know what you bought to build it and any land deeds with your name on them .

Or they might even be reading this .

no one is out here, all the bureaucrats are busy harassing the city dwellers

 

[Speedcuffs]

The higher the fall, the harder tha crash.

But, we can transfer the blame?

 

[znôrt]

As I wrote they made mistakes. I'm purely speculating on behalf of the data we have, and some of the "strangeness" of those, but I think the local government in Wuhan decided to handle this one themselves, to please people higher up in the party. Then they realized that the situation was running out of control, and that led to Xi getting angry. Then you fire someone not important, and normally that's "case closed", but Xi realized that this could get out of control for all of China, spreading to the rest of the World, meaning the orange baby et al would get angry as well.

i read at the day that local government tried to act but got orders from higher up to keep it strictly under wraps, because 'stability', and so they did. when it came out they got green light, local officials publicly apologized, committed to do whatever they could and highest rank there even offered resignation. not a good position to be in but i guess if they had gone through with making it public they would have been lined up in a matter of hours. will see if they end up as scapegoats anyway ...

 

[WeComeInPeace]

i read at the day that local government tried to act but got orders from higher up to keep it strictly under wraps, because 'stability', and so they did. when it came out they got green light, local officials publicly apologized, committed to do whatever they could and highest rank there even offered resignation. not a good position to be in but i guess if they had gone through with making it public they would have been lined up in a matter of hours. will see if they end up as scapegoats anyway ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1227071326512242689

Source: https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1227071326512242689?s=20


Also, there seems to be some sort of rebellion boiling just below the surface in China:

Two UK prisoners being tested as vaccine could be ready in 18 months – as it happened

WHO says at least a dozen drugmakers are working on vaccines as organisation names virus Covid-19. This blog is closed.

www.theguardian.com

With regards to the virus and the disease:

The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist.

“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva.
Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.

Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'

Exclusive: Public health epidemiologist says other countries should consider adopting China-style containment measures

www.theguardian.com

or

According to Zhong, the outbreak may reach its peak in one week or around 10 days.

Scientist Zhong Nanshan predicts Wuhan virus will peak in 10 days

The death rate of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is expected to decrease, said Zhong Nanshan, a Chinese respiratory diseases expert, in an interview with Xinhua yesterday."So...

www.thestandard.com.hk

I hope Zhong is right, but looking at the data we have and trying to model the development using those, I think it's more likely that Leung is. I've been modelling the epidemic the last couple of days, and I lack reliable data, but using the data I have, it seems that the virus is able to spread even before patients develop obvious "unsupressable" symptoms, and that even in Wuhan, where everybody seems as isolated as they can get, the quarantine efficiency is too low to be enough to contain the virus.

It also seems that the epidemic, when using the known estimates of incubation time, disease duration, infection rate, etc. has a tendency to oscillate.

The statistics of epidemic transitions

Emerging and re-emerging pathogens exhibit very complex dynamics, are hard to model and difficult to predict. Their dynamics might appear intractable. However, new statistical approaches—rooted in dynamical systems and the theory of stochastic processes—have yielded insight into the dynamics of...

journals.plos.org

If that's true, that will make it very hard to predict based on available data. We might see a decline in new cases, followed by a rapid increase, and so on. We're definitely not out of the woods yet.

 

[jasonbarron]

We're in the calm before the storm.

 

[Stigbob]

We're in the calm before the storm.

Maybe, or hopefully it could be another pandemic panic that doesn't actually go full on. I'm not playing down the comparative severity of this one currently, but its not like its the first time we've been told its pandemic time.

Happens about once a decade(ish) it seems to me.

 

[jasonbarron]

Maybe, or hopefully it could be another pandemic panic that doesn't actually go full on. I'm not playing down the comparative severity of this one currently, but its not like its the first time we've been told its pandemic time.

Happens about once a decade(ish) it seems to me.

I hope you're right, though I've never seen anything like this before.

In the US we had (have?) 12 cases, all imported directly from China. That was two or three days ago, and no new cases reported as far as I know. Of course with a long incubation period and no telling how many people were infected before the cases were reported, it's still just a waiting game to see if it's a smoldering brush burn or going to be a full on forest fire.

 

[Stigbob]

I hope you're right, though I've never seen anything like this before.

In the US we had (have?) 12 cases, all imported directly from China. That was two or three days ago, and no new cases reported as far as I know. Of course with a long incubation period and no telling how many people were infected before the cases were reported, it's still just a waiting game to see if it's a smoldering brush burn or going to be a full on forest fire.

Hope for the best plan for the worst.

The biggest difference I've seen with this one is borders closing down, which is apparently just down to China being more open with information this time as in the past they kept quiet until after it was too late. But exactly as you say we have to wait and see.

I've still got chicken isolation netting in storage from the last great bird flu panic which went nowhere, so I may be overly laid back about it.

 

[jasonbarron]

Hope for the best plan for the worst.

The biggest difference I've seen with this one is borders closing down, which is apparently just down to China being more open with information this time as in the past they kept quiet until after it was too late. But exactly as you say we have to wait and see.

I've still got chicken isolation netting in storage from the last great bird flu panic which went nowhere, so I may be overly laid back about it.

I'm currently struggling to get over one of the worst flu bugs I've had in my adult life, so I'm probably being a little overboard with the cynicism.

 

[Stigbob]

I'm currently struggling to get over one of the worst flu bugs I've had in my adult life, so I'm probably being a little overboard with the cynicism.

That which does not kill you. Get well soon.

 

[jasonbarron]

That which does not kill you. Get well soon.

I'm supposed to go back to work today, but it's blowing and snowing and the thought of climbing back up that ladder with a 60' piece of gutter makes me almost want to cry with self pity. I'm so weak I'm having a hard time even sitting up to type on the keyboard

 

[Stigbob]

I'm supposed to go back to work today, but it's blowing and snowing and the thought of climbing back up that ladder with a 60' piece of gutter makes me almost want to cry with self pity. I'm so weak I'm having a hard time even sitting up to type on the keyboard

Get drunk, it doesn't help but you don't mind so much. Not whilst negotiating ladders though.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

Right now we don't know. People are starting to recover (or die) now, meaning that number should be subtracted from the cumulated number of cases to get a proper picture of the situation (assuming they develop some sort of immunity). If you look at the number of active cases, it's still growing, but at a slower rate.

"A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one which remains between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline, with the quantity eventually becoming zero, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 could signal exponential growth"

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

Updated Statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, cases by country, cases outside of Hubei in China, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery rate for patients infected with the COVID-19...

www.worldometers.info

Finally, no matter how scary this might be, remember that the chances of survival seems pretty good. This is not ebola.

 

[EUS]

Finally, no matter how scary this might be, remember that the chances of survival seems pretty good. This is not ebola.

That statement relies on a belief that China is releasing accurate death count.

 

[Patrick_68000]

We're in the calm before the storm.

All to the shelters !

Is this a sign from God for all our sins ?

 

[Patrick_68000]

I'm currently struggling to get over one of the worst flu bugs I've had in my adult life,

Good luck for you.

I can understand, I had pneumonia two years ago.But I healed 100% after a fight of several days against this filth.

 

[Patrick_68000]

The new coronavirus poses a "very serious threat" to the world, assured Tuesday February 11 the director general of the World Health Organization. "With 99% of cases in China, this remains a great emergency for this country, but it also poses a very serious threat to the rest of the world," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

New coronavirus vaccine could be ready in 18 months, World Health Organization announces.

18 months ! My God !

 

[WeComeInPeace]

That statement relies on a belief that China is releasing accurate death count.

True, and then again, not quite.

We now have more than 450 cases outside China and 2 deaths. Some of these cases are beginning to be recovered cases (50), so those are numbers that seems relatively reliable.

Also, if we assume that the Chinese numbers are somewhat accurate, and personally I tend to think they are, then they begin to add up. There are currently 4,300 recovered cases, and 43,000 total cases, but if we go back 14 days to roughly when the recovered were infected, the number of cases were 4,500, which gives a much better recovery rate than other estimates I've seen.

The new coronavirus poses a "very serious threat" to the world, assured Tuesday February 11 the director general of the World Health Organization. "With 99% of cases in China, this remains a great emergency for this country, but it also poses a very serious threat to the rest of the world," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

New coronavirus vaccine could be ready in 18 months, World Health Organization announces.

18 months ! My God !

They can probably have it ready before that, but you need to test it, and that's pretty time consuming. With some medicines it can take up to 10 years. You might get to a point where you decide to skip the tests, but that has also been known to be fatal, and I don't think nCoV is "dangerous enough" for that. It might change pretty quickly though.