Game Discussions Star Citizen Discussion Thread v12

Agony_Aunt

Agony_Aunt
Wonder how much they have left in the piggy bank. We know about the 10 million loan, maybe a payday loan they needed, but if they are minus again another year, that can't leave them with much left.
 

VR Golgot

VR Golgot
Agony_Aunt said:
Wonder how much they have left in the piggy bank. We know about the 10 million loan, maybe a payday loan they needed, but if they are minus again another year, that can't leave them with much left.
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If 2024 mirrors 2022 as they suggest, that'd be another ~$22m gone from the $42.5 reserve. So $20m heading in to 2025 etc.

(Loads of vagaries though. There have been more mini-investments, as they say, and the staff trimming also started in earnest in 2024. Which doesn't really point to 'emergency pull chord' times for 2025. So either the loan etc is all just bread and butter stuff, or the blog is gilding the lily a bit ;))
 

VR Golgot

VR Golgot
FWIW Tony from Guard Freq's reaction was...

Tony said:
"However, we firmly believe and are demonstrating that the investments we are making are worthwhile and our investor shareholders share our beliefs evidenced by their recent equity investments and financing – as referenced in our 2023 UK filings. This funding supports the business and replenishes our reserves ready for this next exciting phase in our life cycle."
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VR Golgot

VR Golgot
Shrach on some stray oddities:

I had them at an estimated net position of $43.65m in my latest estimate, while their stated net position is $42.63m so between different categorisation and over/underestimating different items I'm happy enough.

However, there's a couple issues.

93e2bd0b5c72451192600227d1a64dc4.png


I'm struggling with something on their expenses summary. That's a direct link to theirs (so maybe it gets corrected?) and well, somehow it literally doesn't add up, not by much ($80,000) but I'm still confused as to what happened here. As far as I can tell, the UK + US figures add up their sub totals. But somehow the "Sub-Total Trading Costs" does not add up to the sum of the figures above. Weird. MS paint for clarity:

ML1h1aQ.jpeg


Also, their headline figure of $119,336,000 for the pledge counter here:
7df135c4252842fd843e752bd374fc54.png

Does not appear to match the spreadsheet that is floating around, which has a figure of $117,564,376, a difference of ~$1.77m
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...SYoQOQoNSI/edit?gid=1694467207#gid=1694467207
I'm not going to bother investigating the difference.
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Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
Viajero
VR Golgot said:
Shrach on some stray oddities:
Click to expand...
Other things that do not seem to match up in the cost part:

- $12 millions salaries increase from 2022.
Turbulent´s staff became part of CIG only in July. Knowing that in 2022 the Turbulent external costs were a maximum of $9 millions (contracted game dev costs based in US as per blog), that means that at most the Turbulent external costs transferred to salaries should have been of around $4.5 millions. Even after adding the 25 additional non Turbulent hires (roughly 1-1.5 millions more according to CIG avg salaries), that should have led to a salary increase of 5-6 millions tops.

Overall there are around $6 millions unaccounted for here.

- $2 millions contracted game dev costs increase from 2022.
Given that in 2023 Turbulent was part of CIG for half of the year the overall costs in the US should not have disappeared completely as it is suggested by the blog:
1746346105883.png


The blog instead seems to have just shifted all US contracted costs (including the full Turbulent external cost) from the US to the UK (and added $2 millions on top!)... but still as an external game dev cost, not salaries. It´s either that or there are roughly $8 millions unnacounted for in this 2023 line.

CIG is saying in this line that all Turbulent costs for 2023 weres still external, i.e. no staff salaries. Which would further put into question the salaries increase above.

In other words, if you have all Turbulent costs for the full year shown still as external cost in this line here then you can not have Turbulent costs aswell included as staff salaries in the salaries line above. This would mean there are around $10 million unaccounted for in the salaries line instead. You can have one but then not the other.

- A whooping $15 millions for other game dev costs increase from 2022.
I am struggling to see how the Turbulent rental space is a factor here as that would have been part of the external dev cost billed by Turbulent and part of the cost discussed above. It is one or the other, but can´t be both. I am also struggling to see how any additional rental space in UK or Germany would have ammounted to a doubling or trippling of the existing overhead figure given the growth in staff in those locations is far from having doubled, nevermind trippled. And we know CIG was probably planning heavy layoffs starting in 2023 anyways.

There is at least imo $5 to $10 millions not clearly acounted for here.

- $10 millions publishing operations increase from 2022.
Again CIG uses the excuse of Turbulent costs, when those should have already been covered by the external dev cost discussed above (CIG sure likes some doubledipping!). The other excuse is CitCon... Also struggling to see how that can costs anywhere near $10 millions.

All in all there seems to be, easy, around $25-30 millions unnacounted for. Now is there any 3rd party here like, I don´t know, investors or some such, with whom CIG may have been renegotiating returns? Who knows!
 
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Agony_Aunt

Agony_Aunt
Viajero said:
Other things that do not seem to match up in the cost part:

- $12 millions salaries increase from 2023.
Turbulent´s staff became part of CIG only in July. Knowing that in 2022 the Turbulent external costs were a maximum of $9 millions (contracted game dev costs based in US as per blog), that means that at most the Turbulent external costs transferred to salaries should have been of around $4.5 millions. Even after adding the 25 additional non Turbulent hires (roughly 1-1.5 millions more according to CIG avg salaries), that should have led to a salary increase of 5-6 millions tops.

Overall there are around $6 millions unaccounted for here.

- $2 millions contracted game dev costs increase from 2022.
Given that in 2023 Turbulent was part of CIG for half of the year the overall costs in the US should not have disappeared completely as it is suggested by the blog:
View attachment 428565

The blog instead seems to have just shifted the full Turbulent external dev costs from the US to the UK (and added $2 millions on top!)... but still as an external game dev cost, not salaries. It´s either that or there are roughly $8 millions unnacounted for in this 2023 line.

CIG is saying in this line that all Turbulent costs for 2023 weres still external, i.e. no staff salaries. Which would further put into question the salaries increase above.

In other words, if you have all Turbulent costs for the full year shown still as external cost in this line here then you can not have Turbulent costs aswell included as staff salaries in the salaries line above. This would mean there are around $10 million unaccounted for in the salaries line instead. You can have one but then not the other.

- A whooping $15 millions for other game dev costs increase from 2022.
I am struggling to see how the Turbulent rental space is a factor here as that would have been part of the external dev cost billed by Turbulent and part of the cost discussed above. It is one or the other, but can´t be both. I am also struggling to see how any additional rental space in UK or Germany would have ammounted to a doubling or trippling of the existing overhead figure given the growth in staff in those locations is far from having doubled, nevermind trippled. And we know CIG was probably planning heavy layoffs starting in 2023 anyways.

There is at least imo $5 to $10 millions not clearly acounted for here.

- $10 millions publishing operations increase from 2022.
Again CIG uses the excuse of Turbulent costs, when those should have already been covered by the external dev cost discussed above (CIG sure likes some doubledipping!). The other excuse is CitCon... Also struggling to see how that can costs anywhere near $10 millions.

All in all there seems to be, easy, around $25-30 millions unnacounted for. Now is there any 3rd party here like, I don´t know, investors or some such, with whom CIG may have been renegotiating returns? Who knows!
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Tinfoil hat time!

Option 1: The funding tracker is a lie and they are trying to cover for it, and messed up their maths.

Option 2: Chris bought a new mansion.
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
Viajero
Agony_Aunt said:
Tinfoil hat time!

Option 1: The funding tracker is a lie and they are trying to cover for it, and messed up their maths.

Option 2: Chris bought a new mansion.
Click to expand...

I mean, all the information contradicting itself, not matching at all, double dipping and what not etc. What a mess. That blog is obviously complete and utter fiction.

It is just a marketing tool to pass the message to:
  • the players and (most importantly) the grey market, that "all is well, please keep buying jpgs". After all the sales "tracker" figure has increased, has it not? and they have those 45 million in reserve, right?
  • the Calders, conveying the idea that "they have had a small loss despite sales growth" and so they do not have any more spare cash margins for returns (beyond whatever has already been possibly returned, ref the unaccounted amounts I mentioned above). But we are growing sales so stay with us!
It is actually beautiful how they manage to get both conflicting messages in the same text.
 
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VR Golgot

VR Golgot
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