Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Ned Flandalorian]

thargoid expansion is exponential

It's not. Roughly the same amount of alerts appear on average each week.

That is why it is so important to deal with alerts in human space: they are easier

They aren't. A single dedicated person could (pre 14.02's broken state) move an uninhabited control system by more than 50% in a week just by themselves. Groups have cleared full systems in a little over 24 hours. In contrast Op Ida spent 50 hours performing deliveries (and nothing else) to an alert system and only managed to reach 18%.

the system, if it is won, remains fully operational.

As do unattacked stations in invasion systems.

And there is also the matter of the recovered systems, and even the systems that we saved in the alerts... How long will it take before they are threatened again? Those efforts may be doomed in the future anyway if we fail to clear the surrounding systems of thargoid presence, empty or not. And currently I see it as impossible due to the requirements of people.

If the same logic applies to alerts, why give them priority over invasions when the latter get longer recovery time, which can be used to clear up that surrounding area?

thargoid expansion has a limit, and that as they move away from the Maelstroms, they "weaken", whatever that means. The most obvious thing is that it is easier to move the bar, but who knows, coming from FD...

We know because it's been measured. Fdev even acknowledged that they were only talking about it because it had been discovered by the community.

 

[YoEgo]

Is it? Since all eight maelstroms arrived, their growth per week has been roughly constant.

I expected some exponential component, but if there is one it's so far too weak to tell apart from noise.

Okay...it's not that exponential, otherwise they would have hit 5% domination of human space by now. They take 50 to 100 systems a week since all 8 came into the game. They must have some limitation in their programming or they would have swept us by now... or maybe they have a range limit, and are affecting currently available systems, which is lucky for us.

Not bad, we barely stop 10 invasions per week...

If the same logic applies to alerts, why give them priority over invasions when the latter get longer recovery time, which can be used to clear up that surrounding area?

In order not to lose the EDO settlements and have more outlets to get goods.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

EDO settlements have such low supply levels (and most don't have large pads) that they're not worth worrying about. Plus the new mechanics make it very easy to get them back online after an invasion is repelled - so much so that the mission boards are struggling to remove the reactivation missions in time.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Putas closing soon and Pathamon likely later on, after which I suggest heading across to M. Taranis and upward to M. Oya respectively. A few more familiar names return, along with newcomers Wanmi and Wogaiawong!

Top targets at 09:10 4th February 3309:
Putas Invasion 90% — Hadad 23 Ly, 2 ports, 861 Ls outpost attack
Pathamon Invasion 56% — Leigong 22 Ly, 3 ports, 193 Ls planet + 193 Ls outpost attack, 104 Ls planet + 2695 Ls outpost damage
Aowicha Invasion 24% — Oya 23 Ly, 1 port, 4350 Ls starport attack, 1765 Ls planet damage
Ebisu Invasion 24% — Taranis 21 Ly, 5 ports, 105 Ls planet + 105 Ls outpost attack, 63 Ls outpost + 1797 Ls planet damage
HIP 26688 Invasion 22% — Taranis 21 Ly, 1 port, 230 Ls planet attack
Huile Invasion 22% — Oya 30 Ly, 1 port, 1543 Ls starport attack, 3853 Ls planet damage


I also may have investigated the war-front AX Conflict Zones a bit; for what it is worth, here is a sample of Control systems from around M. Oya along with whether they contain AX CZs, and their distances from the nearest Rescue megaship (Ross 112) and from Sol:

Control System​	AX CZ​	M. Oya​	Ross 112​	Sol​
Akbakara​	No​	18​	72​	125​
Ardhri​	No​	13​	96​	139​
Cephei Sector AF-A c11​	No​	7​	91​	134​
Cephei Sector AF-A c21​	Yes​	20​	83​	120​
Cephei Sector AF-A c22​	Yes​	21​	90​	127​
Cephei Sector AF-A c9​	No​	15​	87​	127​
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6​	No​	21​	99​	140​
Cephei Sector CV-Y b1​	Yes​	22​	71​	116​
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1​	No​	17​	83​	122​
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6​	Yes​	25​	77​	114​
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0​	Yes​	23​	82​	123​
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1​	Yes​	20​	83​	125​
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5​	Yes​	25​	69​	117​
Cephei Sector ZE-A c12​	No​	28​	105​	149​
Chernobo​	No​	15​	84​	140​
Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1​	No​	22​	108​	157​
Eoto​	No​	4​	92​	140​
HIP 115777​	Yes​	30​	88​	125​
HIP 118207​	No​	27​	101​	142​
HIP 13179​	No​	15​	85​	125​
HIP 21386​	Yes​	20​	70​	122​
HIP 24329​	No​	18​	85​	135​
HR 1107​	No​	18​	83​	137​
Kanus​	No​	12​	82​	127​
Lhou Mans​	No​	9​	90​	132​
Lyncis Sector TZ-P b5-1​	No​	20​	95​	151​
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1​	No​	22​	86​	145​
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-2​	No​	18​	87​	144​
Niu Yun​	No​	12​	92​	134​
Tougeir​	No​	16​	76​	124​
Warnones​	No​	13​	89​	130​

I chose systems with various distance to the Maelstrom and on various sides of it, and above and below. They correlate well with being further from M. Oya, albeit with imperfections among the systems with CZs present. They also correlate well with being closer to Sol, though again with a few having absent CZs among the set of those with CZs present. Together, and critically because there were zero cases involving CZs being unexpectedly present, those two correlations make it clear that the war-front consists of the side of the Maelstrom sphere which faces Sol.

Because the above correlations were imperfect, I imagine there is also a component involving nearby populated systems being present. The Rescue megaship had no correlation of its own, only what it inherited from being closer to Sol. There is also no correlation with having Alert or Invasion systems nearby; for instance, those Control systems atop the M. Oya sphere are close to invasions at Orong and Huile, and some around the side and back are close to various Alerts. HR 1107 is very close to the populated Alert system HIP 6913, but definitely it has no CZs given that both of those are well within the sphere.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Because the above correlations were imperfect, I imagine there is also a component involving nearby populated systems being present. The Rescue megaship had no correlation of its own, only what it inherited from being closer to Sol. There is also no correlation with having Alert or Invasion systems nearby; for instance, those Control systems atop the M. Oya sphere are close to invasions at Orong and Huile, and some around the side and back are close to various Alerts. HR 1107 is very close to the populated Alert system HIP 6913, but definitely it has no CZs given that both of those are well within the sphere.

Very interesting! Would a combination of "at least 20 LY from Oya" and "at most X LY from a populated Safe system" be sufficient explanation, then? That would tend to give an approximate "on the Sol side" rule without needing to explicitly code it.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Very interesting! Would a combination of "at least 20 LY from Oya" and "at most X LY from a populated Safe system" be sufficient explanation, then? That would tend to give an approximate "on the Sol side" rule without needing to explicitly code it.

It would:

• Of that set, those with CZs are all within 127 Ly from Sol; everything further away has no CZ.
• Of only those candidates within 127 Ly from Sol, sorting by distance to M. Oya now correlates perfectly.
• The M. Oya threshold lies between 18.17 Ly (Akbakara) and 20.26 Ly (Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1).
• The Sol threshold lies between 127.39 Ly (Cephei Sector AF-A c22) and 140.58 Ly (Cephei Sector AV-Y b6).

That M. Oya threshold range is strictly from systems which were close enough to Sol, and similarly the Sol threshold range is strictly from systems which were far enough from M. Oya. The reference distance from Sol to M. Oya is 136.24 Ly.

If that hypothesis works:

• Gliese 9843 should contain a CZ, for it is both closer to Sol (127.04 Ly) than a system with a CZ and also farther from M. Oya (26.61 Ly) than a system with a CZ.
• Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4 is far enough from M. Oya (23.67 Ly), and should help narrow the Sol interval (131.81 Ly).
• HIP 24329, HIP 3006, HIP 4041 and HR 1107 should help narrow both intervals.

More later!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victory in Putas! Those yet to move from M. Hadad have a realistic option to switch to HIP 29596, otherwise the M. Taranis targets below are good. Hez Ur returns for its first Invasion week, and Balak joins the fight!

Top targets at 18:30 4th February 3309:
Pathamon Invasion 72% — Leigong 22 Ly, 3 ports, 193 Ls planet + 193 Ls outpost attack, 104 Ls planet + 2695 Ls outpost damage
Aowicha Invasion 32% — Oya 23 Ly, 1 port, 4350 Ls starport attack, 1765 Ls planet damage
HIP 26688 Invasion 32% — Taranis 21 Ly, 1 port, 230 Ls planet attack
Huile Invasion 32% — Oya 30 Ly, 1 port, 1543 Ls starport attack, 3853 Ls planet damage
Ebisu Invasion 28% — Taranis 21 Ly, 5 ports, 105 Ls planet + 105 Ls outpost attack, 63 Ls outpost + 1797 Ls planet damage
HIP 20491 Invasion 24% — Indra 23 Ly, 1 port, 1713 Ls planet attack, 3194 Ls planet damage
HIP 29596 Invasion 18% — Hadad 18 Ly, 7 ports, 1548 Ls planet + 1549 Ls planet attack
Desurinbin Invasion 16% — Cocijo 25 Ly, 5 ports, 2844 Ls planet + 456k Ls planet attack, 455k Ls planet + 456k Ls planet damage


More M. Oya Control system AX CZ notes:

• Gliese 9843 had a CZ, as predicted.
• Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4 had a CZ further from Sol than before, narrowing the hypothetical threshold a bit, now between 131.81 Ly and 140.58 Ly.
• None of those extra HIP systems had CZs, unfortunately thus changing no thresholds. Had HIP 4041 been the tiniest bit closer to Sol (131.9 Ly), that would have narrowed the M. Oya upper boundary to 18.53 Ly, placing the minimum Maelstrom distance to be within a fraction of a light-year.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Pathamon closing soon, huge amounts of activity in the next band to push the projected systems up to 9–10, fresh Alert activity in Jaoi and HIP 9764, and 29 e Orionis is back for its second defence since Week 3!

Top targets at 01:30 5th February 3309:
Pathamon Invasion 90% — Leigong 22 Ly, 3 ports, 193 Ls planet + 193 Ls outpost attack, 104 Ls planet + 2695 Ls outpost damage
HIP 26688 Invasion 48% — Taranis 21 Ly, 1 port, 230 Ls planet attack
Aowicha Invasion 44% — Oya 23 Ly, 1 port, 4350 Ls starport attack, 1765 Ls planet damage
Huile Invasion 38% — Oya 30 Ly, 1 port, 1543 Ls starport attack, 3853 Ls planet damage
Ebisu Invasion 32% — Taranis 21 Ly, 5 ports, 105 Ls planet + 105 Ls outpost attack, 63 Ls outpost + 1797 Ls planet damage
HIP 20491 Invasion 28% — Indra 23 Ly, 1 port, 1713 Ls planet attack, 3194 Ls planet damage
HIP 29596 Invasion 26% — Hadad 18 Ly, 7 ports, 1548 Ls planet + 1549 Ls planet attack
Senocidi Alert 24% — Taranis 20 Ly, 184 Ls starport, 3138 Ls outpost

 

[Virkful]

Pathamon is done.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Pathamon is done.

Victory in Pathamon!

---

The upcoming Invasions listed below should be able to complete comfortably enough, potentially with room for one more after that, but either way the Alert in Senocidi will need some assistance in advance. At present Senocidi has only around half the drive it needs to complete; it can be done with no inherent problems, but it will need early support from trade pilots ahead of those Invasion systems.

Imeut has also returned for its sequel since Week 3, and Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11 joins the fight!

Top targets at 09:15 5th February 3309:
HIP 26688 Invasion 58% — Taranis 21 Ly, 1 port, 230 Ls planet attack
Aowicha Invasion 48% — Oya 23 Ly, 1 port, 4350 Ls starport attack, 1765 Ls planet damage
Huile Invasion 42% — Oya 30 Ly, 1 port, 1543 Ls starport attack, 3853 Ls planet damage
Ebisu Invasion 34% — Taranis 21 Ly, 5 ports, 105 Ls planet + 105 Ls outpost attack, 63 Ls outpost + 1797 Ls planet damage
HIP 29596 Invasion 34% — Hadad 18 Ly, 7 ports, 1548 Ls planet + 1549 Ls planet attack
HIP 20491 Invasion 32% — Indra 23 Ly, 1 port, 1713 Ls planet attack, 3194 Ls planet damage
Senocidi Alert 26% — Taranis 20 Ly, 184 Ls starport, 3138 Ls outpost

 

[Kayvan]

I reckon 26688 will close tonight. It's around 86% now.

However, encountered a glitch I never saw before:
In the 2-Hydra bonus stage, we (some 6 CMDRs or so) were already busy with the 2nd 'dra, it had started warping like hell (and every warp immediately cancelling a heart exertion), but we did have it down to two (2) hearts, and then POOF just like that it had FOUR HEARTS AGAIN!
By that time I guess everyone said FU and wanted to leave or restart the instance; for me it was time to go home anyway.

--

In other news, I have now tested the Chieftain setup I mentioned a couple of days ago:
2x C2 Modshards
1x C2 ModPlasma, 1x C1 ModPlasma
2x C1 TV Beam

With a regular xeno scanner, 2 Sirius heatsinks and an SFN, this setup stretches an Armoured PP to the absolute limit. I had to dump in a bunch of mats to max out the G5 engineering to make it work.
The added firepower is noticeable I think, but what's unfamiliar is that this setup can actually drain your weapon distro. So I'm not sure if there is actually any sustained DPS advantage in it. I'll try and practice with it some more.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

I reckon 26688 will close tonight. It's around 86% now.

However, encountered a glitch I never saw before:
In the 2-Hydra bonus stage, we (some 6 CMDRs or so) were already busy with the 2nd 'dra, it had started warping like hell (and every warp immediately cancelling a heart exertion), but we did have it down to two (2) hearts, and then POOF just like that it had FOUR HEARTS AGAIN!
By that time I guess everyone said FU and wanted to leave or restart the instance; for me it was time to go home anyway.

When the interceptors start warping around like that it's due to different players games getting desynchronized, usually due to someone having a poor internet connection that is dropping packets. The longer it goes on for the worse the effects can get, including hearts reappearing or even interceptors completely coming back to life after they've been killed. Port forwarding is absolutely recommended if you want a smooth experience playing with others, not just for your own sake but also for theirs.

 

[Esteban]

^^ Yes indeed! For help, see:

The Port Forwarding thread: Minimizing multiplayer connection issues

Given the renewed interest in physical multicrew brought in by Odyssey, and multiplayer gameplay interest in general (player groups, co-op, pvp etc), I thought it could be useful to get a detailed thread regarding how to implement Port Forwarding effectively in our systems. A lot of the info and...

forums.frontier.co.uk

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victory in HIP 26688! I know I missed that update yesterday; it was a Hydra party in Aowicha.

The course for this cycle is still quite steady, with the systems below being those which can complete reasonably. Senocidi has a bit more support now, but it could still use some pilots who prefer trade to make an earlier switch to it—treating it in progress order can work, but it will become more reliant on combat pilots switching to trade to help finish it at the end.

Top targets at 08:50 6th February 3309:
Aowicha Invasion 76% — Oya 23 Ly, 1 port, 4350 Ls starport attack, 1765 Ls planet damage
HIP 29596 Invasion 66% — Hadad 18 Ly, 7 ports, 1548 Ls planet + 1549 Ls planet attack
Huile Invasion 62% — Oya 30 Ly, 1 port, 1543 Ls starport attack, 3853 Ls planet damage
HIP 20491 Invasion 50% — Indra 23 Ly, 1 port, 1713 Ls planet attack, 3194 Ls planet damage
Ebisu Invasion 46% — Taranis 21 Ly, 5 ports, 105 Ls planet + 105 Ls outpost attack, 63 Ls outpost + 1797 Ls planet damage
Senocidi Alert 42% — Taranis 20 Ly, 184 Ls starport, 3138 Ls outpost

Narrow possibility:
Cephei Sector YZ-Y b4 Invasion 34% — Oya 27 Ly, 2 ports, 25 Ls planet attack, 1305 Ls planet damage

 

[Andi-C]

I spent an evening in HIP 26688 on the planet side with a few commander. Was a good duck hunt ! o7

What's the META for these Modified Plasma's and Modified Shard's ? I'm in a Krait MkII at the moment with M-MGPlasma x2 and L-Beam (thermal vent) x1 and some AX MC for the swarms when clearing out.

I'm at a guardian site and will rinse the blueprints in readiness.

I'm leaning towards 2x M-GShards ?

 

[Northpin]

on a krait you can do any combination of 4 ax weapons, depending what you're comfortable with.
2x Modified PlasmaChargers* and 2x Modified Shards (for interceptors/hearts) or 2 Gausses (for hearts) instead of shards if you are comfortable aiming them.
just make sure you pair them properly in the fire groups (1 left large plus 1 left medium, same for the right side)

*(for scouts / interceptors - they have plenty of ammo and 2 salvoes are usually enough to kill a scout at under 1km distance)

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

just make sure you pair them properly in the fire groups (1 left large plus 1 left medium, same for the right side)

Huh? The modified weapons only come in medium and small, and the kraits have no problems with four mediums.

 

[Kayvan]

I think he's talking about the hardpoints on the ship.

 

[Northpin]

Huh? The modified weapons only come in medium and small, and the kraits have no problems with four mediums.

Ofc it has no problem with 4 mediums (large and mediums were referring to the hardpoint size not weapon size - and it was about pairing them for convergence and grouping)

 

[Ander_Wand]

Ofc it has no problem with 4 mediums (large and mediums were referring to the hardpoint size not weapon size - and it was about pairing them for convergence and grouping)

Does that make much of a difference? I think I grouped the 2 'large' and the two med hardpoints with each other without even thinking about it and didn't spot any issues so far. Krait 2's convergence seems to be that great