Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Aleks Zuno]

Either of HIP 8825 or HIP 24329 should be within reach at least, noting that the former has a further distance than with Fotlandjera and that the curve should be lower since then. If that line earlier extrapolates well, a populated system at 19 Ly would cost just shy of 5500, which makes for a quite interesting comparison with the 15989 total INIV delivery this cycle! That is still a quite steep cost for one system though; said 15989 bought us Nihal, Canaharvas and 28 clean-up systems including some tougher targets such as Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2 to protect Ahol.

Strategically they are the worst investment possible short of actually helping the Thargoids, so I think the main reasons to clear those are if Commanders need more places to restock or if Commander factions want them back. I cannot think of an immediate testing-related reason to preserve them as Control, though if there is such a reason then everyone has a choice to make!

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

They would give a permanently thargoid-free stepping stone (no hyperdictions) for ships jumping through the area, as well as a close staging ground for carriers for people wanting to explore the maelstrom.

 

[yttrbio]

We did not have time to relocate for a longer venture, though we have five more smaller systems cleared! I am trying to measure them, though at present they only show as being complete while I am at the Carrier system nearby.

If you have cleared a bunch more systems, it would be helpful to call them out. I try to keep the DCoH Overwatch tracker up-to-date when you announce systems here, but it's very hard to catch those coming in right at the end of the cycle, which makes identifying them a real pain after the tick (as we have to just check all control systems around a maelstrom to find which ones aren't controlled anymore)

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sectors KW-M c7-10, KW-M c7-20, TH-B b14-3, VS-Z b14-4, XN-Z b14-1 and UD-G b12-2, HIP 20485, Trianguli Sector BA-A d84, Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0 and Cephei Sector YJ-A c8; that has week 26 ending with sixty-five total systems!

If you have cleared a bunch more systems, it would be helpful to call them out. I try to keep the DCoH Overwatch tracker up-to-date when you announce systems here, but it's very hard to catch those coming in right at the end of the cycle, which makes identifying them a real pain after the tick (as we have to just check all control systems around a maelstrom to find which ones aren't controlled anymore)

I thought a bit to leave that for inclusion with a full check along with any others elsewhere, though I will try to remember! In this case it was the five Control systems in Col 285 Sector above (not Cephei Sector YJ-A c8; that name looks quite Oya-like and definitely was not us).

They would give a permanently thargoid-free stepping stone (no hyperdictions) for ships jumping through the area, as well as a close staging ground for carriers for people wanting to explore the maelstrom.

I think that falls quite nicely within "places to restock", then!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Week 27, 1st June 3309​

Report
Twenty-two Alerts repelled at Poqomathi, Cephei Sector CQ-Y b3, HIPs 10616, 20019, 20492, 26926 and 21991, Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0, Col 285 Sectors AF-P c6-16 and BA-P c6-8, Luggerates, Aowicha, Juipedun, Holvandalla, Cao Tzu, Pegasi Sectors WK-L a9-3, BQ-Y d101 and FW-W d1-104, Isla, Fotlandjera, Hyades Sector AV-O b6-5, Laumas.
Six Invasions defended at Ge, HIPs 23716, 26274 and 20850, Koko Oh, Kuruma.
Forty-one Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors JA-G b11-3, LL-E b12-1, NG-E b12-3, HL-O c6-19, SI-T d3-89, HF-G b11-5, NG-E b12-4, FI-G b12-2, QR-C b13-3, JG-O c6-13, LL-E b12-0, RM-B b14-1, GV-P c5-13, SX-Z b14-1, JG-O c6-14, OC-L c8-11, YY-X b15-3, RN-T d3-79, PR-B b14-3, RN-T d3-80, KW-M c7-24, OR-B b14-8, XN-Z b14-0, OR-B b14-6, OR-B b14-0, OR-B b14-1, WD-Y b15-7 and OR-B b14-7, HIPs 22031, 32860, 32718, 3006 and 4041, Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1, Almar, Cephei Sectors ZE-A c8 and DQ-Y b6, Lyncis Sector IC-V c2-7, Trianguli Sectors GG-Y c18 and JR-W b1-0, Ceti Sector DB-X b1-3.
In addition to the defended Invasions, two recaptured systems starting Recovery are Almar, Trianguli Sector GG-Y c18.

Targets updated at 06:40 8th June 3309
HIP 26688 Alert 76% — Taranis 22 Ly, 230 Ls planet
Asletae Alert 74% — Cocijo 29 Ly, 16 Ls outpost, 93 Ls planet
Wolf 121 Alert 62% — Leigong 29 Ly, 1708 Ls starport, 4243 Ls outpost, 1666 Ls planet
Paitra Control 60% — Cocijo 25 Ly
HIP 28913 Alert 60% — Hadad 25 Ly, empty
HIP 21474 Alert 54% — Indra 27 Ly, 3648 Ls outpost, 3638 Ls planet
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-1 Alert 20% — Thor 32 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector HB-N b7-0 Control 10% *10.7% — Taranis 29 Ly, empty
HIP 30158 Control 10% — Hadad 21 Ly
Lubal Control 6% *7.1% — Taranis 26 Ly
HIP 21261 Control 6% *7% — Indra 20 Ly
HIP 28183 Alert 6% — Hadad 30 Ly, empty
Ixbaksha Control 4% *5.7% — Raijin 23 Ly
HIP 20056 Control 4% *4.2% — Indra 24 Ly
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6 Alert 4% — Hadad 31 Ly, empty
HIP 25679 Control 2% *2.9% — Taranis 17 Ly
HIP 20741 Control 2% *2.2% — Indra 24 Ly
HIP 20616 Control 2% — Indra 22 Ly
Wanmi Control 2% — Raijin 26 Ly
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6 Control 2% — Hadad 20 Ly, empty
HIP 21354 Alert 2% — Thor 38 Ly, empty

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers which can be stopped this cycle, and requests kindly that HIP 20807 remains untouched for now.

Week 26, 25th May 3309​

Report
Nineteen Alerts repelled at Arietis Sectors UO-R b4-4, YU-P b5-0, EW-N b6-2 and CQ-P b5-3, Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3, HIPs 6913 and 20485, Minawara, Gliese 9035, Lahua, Khwal, Pegasi Sectors WK-L a9-1 and LY-O a7-0, HR 1403, Garongxians, Vukurbeh, Vogulu, Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2, Trianguli Sector BA-A d84.
Eleven Invasions defended at Jawul, HIPs 19757, 21380 and 19157, Aurus, Col 285 Sectors AF-E b13-5 and YT-F b12-3, 69 Upsilon Tauri, Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18, Yan Zangata, Bi Dhorora.
Thirty-five Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors PM-B b14-5, RX-Z b14-0, OB-D b13-2, TS-Z b14-2, HL-O c6-15, PW-D b12-0, ML-E b12-0, YY-X b15-4, QW-D b12-1, QW-D b12-2, YY-X b15-2, QW-D b12-3, OR-B b14-5, KW-M c7-19, GQ-O c6-2, TX-Z b14-0, PB-D b13-5, RN-T d3-61, PR-B b14-1, KW-M c7-27, IB-N c7-2, KW-M c7-10, KW-M c7-20, TH-B b14-3, VS-Z b14-4, XN-Z b14-1, HD-G b12-1 and AF-E b13-0, L2 Puppis, HIP 4617, Nihal, Pegasi Sector GW-V b2-3, Canaharvas, Liu Hef, Cephei Sector YJ-A c8.
In addition to the defended Invasions, four recaptured systems starting Recovery are HIP 4617, Nihal, Canaharvas, Liu Hef.

 

[Felix DiCestria]

Ge claimed 22:00

 

[Aleks Zuno]

That was swift! We are completing the fourth of four harvests to protect Theemim at the moment, but after that I can do an extra full check while awaiting the Carrier jump.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-13, Ge, Poqomathi and Cephei Sector CQ-Y b3!

A harvest delivery is underway for Col 285 Sectors JA-G b11-3, NG-E b12-3, NG-E b12-4 and LL-E b12-0, together intended to protect Theemim. Many thanks to those who have started at Almar; I had planned to recapture that system as part of an investigation regarding how or why a Maelstrom sometimes only places four Alerts, so any advance progress is very welcome!

Invasions at 00:40 2nd June 3309:
HIP 20850 Invasion 28% — Indra 27 Ly, 2 ports, 94 Ls 0.4g planet attack
Koko Oh Invasion 26% *26.9% — Raijin 27 Ly, 3 ports, 489 Ls 0.1g planet attack
HIP 23716 Invasion 24% *24.4% — Taranis 18 Ly, 5 ports, 2351 Ls outpost + 2354 Ls 0.14g planet attack
HIP 26274 Invasion 12% *12.9% — Taranis 24 Ly, 2 ports, 4935 Ls 0.3g planet attack

Evictions:
Almar Control 4% — Thor 32 Ly

Alerts:
Cao Tzu Alert 14% *14.1% — Taranis 22 Ly, 229 Ls outpost, 2226 Ls planet
Juipedun Alert 8% *8.9% — Oya 24 Ly, 39 Ls starport
HIP 20019 Alert 8% — Indra 26 Ly, 786 Ls starport
HIP 26926 Alert 4% *5.6% — Taranis 28 Ly, 1128 Ls starport, 475 Ls outpost
Luggerates Alert 4% — Oya 22 Ly

Clean-up:
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0 Alert 58% — Leigong 38 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16 Alert 20% — Cocijo 31 Ly, empty

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Regarding difficulty estimation, we have an interesting pattern forming among the empty system evictions which strengthens the idea that the difficulty has linear sections. To recall what we saw for populated systems:

Based on being unable to fit anything other than a straight line through Nihal and MCC 105 on the left which also agreed with reducing the difficulty of Desurinbin on the right (the point only just beyond 25 Ly), said line then gave a perfect estimation for Canaharvas. Now that we have much more precision available, observe what the empty systems are doing:

Again the larger markers are after update 15.01. Despite having no measurements exactly before and after 25 Ly, those 5-light-year sections surrounding it both form straight lines which point exactly to the same junction number (486). That 25–30 Ly section also points outward to 324 at 30 Ly, which is a perfect match for Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2 (30.07 Ly).

Those previous measurements are almost due to be retired, but I kept them around just for the observation that those also can be explained better with linear 5-light-year sections. At first, the previous lack of precision was such that an exponential curve would fit and provide serviceable estimates. After update 15, the high precision started contradicting that curve and lead to questions about what else could be affecting the difficulty, but now we are quite sure it is—and always was—just a series of lines instead.

To state it explicitly, this also means that only the Maelstrom distance matters; it has not to do with whether a system is Sol-facing, nor whether it has Conflict Zones (which all seem to have now, but once upon a time...), nor whether it is targeted for counter-attack. Those four evictions to protect Theemim, which are indeed done now, were two targeted and two regular yet all four support those lines.

The above picture shows not the region within 20 Ly; we have one measurement there which may provide an uncertain extrapolation, but please mind that this is a guess which assumes the truth of the junction indicated by the outer section (1132 at 20 Ly):

In any case, I think we can expect that the populated systems also all fall into 5-light-year sections. I know I was going to take some more measurements; that is postponed for the moment to explore instead the surprise misbehaviour of M. Thor only placing four Alerts. In the meantime, I wanted to share that second picture above for accurate difficulty of empty systems beyond 20 Ly, and indeed suggest that the first picture may be used for populated difficulty between 20–25 Ly. Where they flatten, assume simply that some good slightly-padded targets are 1600 beyond 25 Ly for populated systems and 330 beyond 30 Ly for empty systems.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Those previous measurements are almost due to be retired, but I kept them around just for the observation that those also can be explained better with linear 5-light-year sections. At first, the previous lack of precision was such that an exponential curve would fit and provide serviceable estimates. After update 15, the high precision started contradicting that curve and lead to questions about what else could be affecting the difficulty, but now we are quite sure it is—and always was—just a series of lines instead.

The junction points - especially allowing for the uncertainty of the 15 LY point - do still fit reasonably well to an exponential curve, though that may just be coincidence.

Excellent research into the behaviour - interesting that populated and unpopulated seem to hit floors at different distances.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Excellent research into the behaviour - interesting that populated and unpopulated seem to hit floors at different distances.

Thank you! It may interest further to know that those flattened measurements are actually still moving very slightly; for empty systems, the junctions are around 320 at 35 Ly and 318 at 40 Ly. It is indeed still a bit strange how they become so abruptly shallow at different junction distances.

The junction points - especially allowing for the uncertainty of the 15 LY point - do still fit reasonably well to an exponential curve, though that may just be coincidence.

I avoided mention of attempts to fit curves through the junctions, of which there were a few, but the prevailing suspicion is that they are placed manually (why would one devise a curve which could serve any distance, then go to the extra effort of breaking it into linear sections at specific distances?). Our junction curve attempts look like this:

The lighter green curve is f(x) = C + A e⁻ᴮˣ and the darker green curve is g(x) = C + A x⁻ᴮ, where each have been solved for A, B and C such that they fit the junctions at 20, 25 and 30 Ly. As seen above, the problems are that they both overestimate the now-stronger linear hypothesis before that domain, and both underestimate the actual measurements beyond that domain.

The fact that g(x) actually passes through the measurement at Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1 (17.35 Ly) is pure coincidence, given that it was attempting to match the junctions and not the individual measurements. Meeting a data point in the middle of a linear section actually proves the curve to be wrong!

Additional: It can be allowed one more try to fit something like x → C − A arctan Bx, but after that it is not getting any further attention beyond determining a table of its junction points.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sectors HF-G b11-5 and LL-E b12-1, HIP 22031 and Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1! With Kuruma now started, please note that the Invasions below are all which remain this cycle. If those are gone by tomorrow, the eager may consider Almar to be warranted and any extra progress there to be very welcome!

Invasions at 20:30 2nd June 3309:
HIP 23716 Invasion 76% *76.7% — Taranis 18 Ly, 5 ports, 2351 Ls outpost + 2354 Ls 0.14g planet attack
Koko Oh Invasion 62% *62.3% — Raijin 27 Ly, 3 ports, 489 Ls 0.1g planet attack
HIP 20850 Invasion 56% *57.2% — Indra 27 Ly, 2 ports, 94 Ls 0.4g planet attack
HIP 26274 Invasion 56% *56.3% — Taranis 24 Ly, 2 ports, 4935 Ls 0.3g planet attack
Kuruma Invasion 6% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1 port, 250k Ls outpost attack

Evictions:
Almar Control 4% *4.7% — Thor 32 Ly
HIP 30158 Control 2% — Hadad 21 Ly

Alerts:
HIP 20019 Alert 48% *48.2% — Indra 26 Ly, 786 Ls starport
Cao Tzu Alert 28% *29.8% — Taranis 22 Ly, 229 Ls outpost, 2226 Ls planet
Juipedun Alert 26% *26.5% — Oya 24 Ly, 39 Ls starport
HIP 26926 Alert 8% *8.9% — Taranis 28 Ly, 1128 Ls starport, 475 Ls outpost
Luggerates Alert 8% — Oya 22 Ly

Clean-up:
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16 Alert 80% — Cocijo 31 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0 Alert 74% — Leigong 38 Ly, empty


As a minor follow-up for @Ian Doncaster, one can get a bit closer with squaring the distance to get the bell curve f(x) = C + A e⁻ᴮˣ². Turning the power into another adjustable number and setting it at around 6.5 can draw a curve through all of those junctions, although that is trivial given that extra degree of freedom, unless or until such a curve also predicts a junction at 10 Ly of course!

 

[Leadfoot]

Invasions at 20:30 2nd June 3309:
HIP 23716 Invasion 76% *76.7% — Taranis 18 Ly, 5 ports, 2351 Ls outpost + 2354 Ls 0.14g planet attack

That's the one with Wakata (forever!) Station. Just arrived there this evening and gosh darn, it's already finished. Had to go through two hyperdictions and two in-system interdictions, all involving glaves. I've determined I do not like them. Not one bit. Made it to Wakata with the shields down to 70% and hull at 65%. I really don't like them. But HIP 23716 is finished. Wakata Forever. And for the guys that finished there before I arrived:

 

[Felix DiCestria]

That's the one with Wakata (forever!) Station. Just arrived there this evening and gosh darn, it's already finished. Had to go through two hyperdictions and two in-system interdictions, all involving glaves. I've determined I do not like them. Not one bit. Made it to Wakata with the shields down to 70% and hull at 65%. I really don't like them. But HIP 23716 is finished. Wakata Forever. And for the guys that finished there before I arrived:

Add Hip 26274 to the steamrolled list.
Onto Raijin...
Koko Oh down.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in HIPs 10616, 23716 and 26274, Koko Oh, Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16 and Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0!

Targets at 07:30 3rd June 3309:
HIP 20850 Invasion 86% *86.6% — Indra 27 Ly, 2 ports, 94 Ls 0.4g planet attack
Kuruma Invasion 8% *8.4% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1 port, 251k Ls outpost attack

Evictions:
Almar Control 4% *4.7% — Thor 32 Ly
HIP 30158 Control 2% — Hadad 21 Ly
HIP 21261 Control 2% — Indra 20 Ly

Alerts:
HIP 20019 Alert 64% *64.2% — Indra 26 Ly, 786 Ls starport
Juipedun Alert 40% — Oya 24 Ly, 39 Ls starport
Cao Tzu Alert 40% — Taranis 22 Ly, 229 Ls outpost, 2226 Ls planet
Fotlandjera Alert 12% — Hadad 20 Ly, 1266 Ls outpost, 1269 Ls planet
HIP 20492 Alert 12% — Indra 24 Ly, 3308 Ls starport, 3168 Ls outpost, 5791 Ls planet
Luggerates Alert 10% *11.4% — Oya 22 Ly, 1473 Ls planet
HIP 26926 Alert 10% *10.5% — Taranis 28 Ly, 1128 Ls starport, 475 Ls outpost

That's the one with Wakata (forever!) Station. Just arrived there this evening and gosh darn, it's already finished. Had to go through two hyperdictions and two in-system interdictions, all involving glaves. I've determined I do not like them. Not one bit. Made it to Wakata with the shields down to 70% and hull at 65%. I really don't like them. But HIP 23716 is finished. Wakata Forever. And for the guys that finished there before I arrived:

Indeed one has to be quite quick to catch Invasions now! HIP 23716 has also been attacked a few times since that first Invasion defence; if I recall, the Thargoids also have yet to attack Wakata Station again. It was the final port originally, and it could have been chosen as the first port on numerous occasions since, but simply has not!

If it helps, there is a discussion here which begins with identifying Glaive-y problems then moves into how one might adapt to solve them. A few notes of mine are:

• While one can use ECM to avoid the containment missile if used in the early stage of its arc, this is mostly useless for a medium combat vessel because it consumes a precious utility and does not solve the 20 mass-lock problem.
• If you can use Silent Running without concern for shields, doing so immediately after an interdiction drop can let you escape without the Glaive engaging.
• If you use enough shielding that it is as well to keep it and it can survive 15 seconds, you have the Exit and Continue option.
• Even without Silent Running, I find that one can escape a hyperspace encounter by getting a good boost head-start followed with a quick Exit and Continue with no timer.

Otherwise, the only other option for a medium combat vessel is to equip first for destroying Glaives before considering anything else, a topic continued more fully in that linked discussion above.

 

[Starsong]

Indeed one has to be quite quick to catch Invasions now! HIP 23716 has also been attacked a few times since that first Invasion defence; if I recall, the Thargoids also have yet to attack Wakata Station again. It was the final port originally, and it could have been chosen as the first port on numerous occasions since, but simply has not!

As far as I’m aware, it can’t be the first port, only the last. Systems seem to have a set order (it’s always Knight Enterprise and Farkas Oasis hit first) and as far as I’m aware Starports always seem to come after Outposts and Surface Ports.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

As far as I’m aware, it can’t be the first port, only the last. Systems seem to have a set order (it’s always Knight Enterprise and Farkas Oasis hit first) and as far as I’m aware Starports always seem to come after Outposts and Surface Ports.

I have seen differing attack order among the planetary port and outposts at Muruidooges, which I think has been attacked at least as many times as with HIP 23716, though indeed its starport was last once when the Invasion got that far. I think Marriott (planetary) was first originally, but Sternbach (outpost) nearby has also been the initial target. Then again, enough else has changed between cycles before that it could have gone from random to fixed, or changed between two different flavours of fixed!

 

[Starsong]

I have seen differing attack order among the planetary port and outposts at Muruidooges, which I think has been attacked at least as many times as with HIP 23716, though indeed its starport was last once when the Invasion got that far. I think Marriott (planetary) was first originally, but Sternbach (outpost) nearby has also been the initial target. Then again, enough else has changed between cycles before that it could have gone from random to fixed, or changed between two different flavours of fixed!

Huh, interesting. I don’t remember ever seeing a starport be attacked first - although that may be just that the controlling station always gets hit last. Would be interesting if we ever see a system with more than one starport invades - what order that went in might prove or disprove a few theories.

 

[Leadfoot]

Huh, interesting. I don’t remember ever seeing a starport be attacked first - although that may be just that the controlling station always gets hit last. Would be interesting if we ever see a system with more than one starport invades - what order that went in might prove or disprove a few theories.

I believe this is the third time HIP 23716 has been attacked and it was the same all three times, i.e., outposts and ground bases take a beating but Wakata was always last on their list. The first time they came, if you left Wakata and just lingered too long outside, Thargoids would show up and make a show of it. Haven't tried it this time.

 

[tolm]

Hmmm ... looking for an Invasion system to go CZ'ing and, of the 6 I can find on Inara only Kuruma is not yet showing as "Prevented" ... is there genuinely only one left that hasn't already been won ... since Thursday?!