Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[CMDR Vulkarius]

Quick note for anyone using the target lists - some maelstroms will now have a 2nd dotted line.
Where they do, the 1st is the present radius and 2nd is the new radius if future controls aren't stopped (unpop alerts + final week invasions).
They'll converge as alerts/invasions are stopped (shrinking the 2nd) and they can potentially diverge if controls are cleared before that (shrinking the 1st).
It isn't that useful for defence, just a side effect of a thing I added to help examine attacks, figured I'd mention it this time though

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Hyadum II, Cephei Sector WO-A b4, Col 285 Sectors WY-F b12-5, UH-C b13-0, OB-E b12-4 and SS-H b11-3, and HIP 20616! The Omumba defence ought to succeed today, meanwhile Balak is just about on-course and 70 Tauri would need a heavy boost. There are also Ixbaksha and Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69, but at this point any of those Alerts are quite fine to proceed to Invasion!

Invasion at 06:40 3rd October 3309:
Omumba Invasion 94% *94.4% — Hadad 14 Ly, 3 ports, 41 Ls outpost attack, 1836 Ls planet damage

Alerts, narrowly:
Balak Alert 68% — Raijin 23 Ly, 9 Ls outpost, 16 Ls planet
Trailing:
70 Tauri Alert 36% *36.2% — Indra 21 Ly, 3010 Ls outpost

Clean-up:
HIP 20712 Alert 78% — Indra 19 Ly, empty
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2 Alert 44% — Oya 16 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9 Alert 30% — Raijin 20 Ly, empty


Last I recall, the Tougeir order at the Resolute had 1717 remaining. Insofar as we should have this completed later, I will opt to awaken @PapaDragon_I, @deanom59 and @Shayan al Nasarwa:

• If the order at the Resolute is all you need and it remains in Muchihiks, by around 21:00 it should be all ready to deliver.
• If it helps to create a convenient delivery time, by all means deliver what you have; tell me if Tougeir will be short any progress, and we can harvest and deliver the remainder.

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

Last I recall, the Tougeir order at the Resolute had 1717 remaining. Insofar as we should have this completed later, I will opt to awaken @PapaDragon_I, @deanom59 and @Shayan al Nasarwa:

• If the order at the Resolute is all you need and it remains in Muchihiks, by around 21:00 it should be all ready to deliver.
• If it helps to create a convenient delivery time, by all means deliver what you have; tell me if Tougeir will be short any progress, and we can harvest and deliver the remainder.

Awake, alive and still breathing ;-)...

I try to contact @deanom59 via DCOH discord if he will be able to deliver his samples or at least set a sell order on his carrier.

EDIT1:
Deanom's samples were sold. 6.392 samples gave 52% progress.

EDIT2:
We are harvesting with 5 commanders atm and only need a rest of 400 - 500 samples. After having collected them we will move the Resolute to Sun Wen...

EDIT3:
System is evicted!!! Thanks to all commanders who helped in Tougeir!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

System is evicted!!! Thanks to all commanders who helped in Tougeir!

Well done! We were just about ready to start, but clearly you gathered the last bit ahead of that. Hopefully that rush did not alter your combined plans too disruptively, and it is well that your carriers are available again.

Moving to take Mahlina instead!

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

Well done! We were just about ready to start, but clearly you gathered the last bit ahead of that. Hopefully that rush did not alter your combined plans too disruptively, and it is well that your carriers are available again.

No problem... we had nothing better to do this afternoon . Honestly, we are glad that Tougeir is under human control and Jeng won't ever go to alert state again.

 

[Starsong]

Given the fact that the Oya folks are burned out from Tougier and nobody's selling samples to the HIP 8525 effort, I'll probably just go somewhere I can solo. Still need to decide where, though.

 

[Kira Goto]

Not particularly related to the discussion about clearing controls, but -

Safe to proclaim Omumba is out of the picture now.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Indeed; victory in Omumba! We have also Col 285 Sectors TH-C b13-3, JG-O c6-5 and SW-D b12-2, Tougeir of course, Mahlina, Balak and HIP 20712.

Alerts at 07:20 4th October 3309, Wednesday caution:
70 Tauri Alert 66% *67% — Indra 21 Ly, 3010 Ls outpost
Trailing:
Ixbaksha Alert 16% — Raijin 23 Ly, 196 Ls planet

Clean-up:
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9 Alert 92% *93.5% — Raijin 20 Ly, empty
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2 Alert 68% — Oya 16 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-0 Alert 14% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty

Given the fact that the Oya folks are burned out from Tougier and nobody's selling samples to the HIP 8525 effort, I'll probably just go somewhere I can solo. Still need to decide where, though.

I feel a bit bad for leaving the area; after a 25000-strength system and around 40% of Tougeir, we chose Mahlina to be achievable in one evening and closer to home. For solo Control I can only suggest among the farthest empty non-Matrix systems; perhaps something like HIP 21091 with strength 391?

Speaking of Mahlina and Control strength, I notice just now that it reports 165%. It was below 2% all evening, actually around 1.9%, all the way until delivery time. Either a specific event caused a lot of extra activity within an approximately 2-hour opportunity to do so, or the strength was reduced 40% at some point after the delivery for Tougeir, neither of which are particularly likely!

If it was an event, I am very curious to know if it was a response to observing a partial delivery; if so, that reduces the opportunity window to around 1 hour, making the activity rate so heavy that it would be as well for such a group to choose their own targets. If it was a strength reduction, it would not be the first which has occurred around one day before the end of a cycle, but rather the 40% causes the lack of likelihood.

 

[Starsong]

I feel a bit bad for leaving the area; after a 25000-strength system and around 40% of Tougeir, we chose Mahlina to be achievable in one evening and closer to home. For solo Control I can only suggest among the farthest empty non-Matrix systems; perhaps something like HIP 21091 with strength 391?

I tend to do recaptures over longer periods of time, so I generally ignore the tick unless it interferes with delivery - as well as the fact that I'm likely to not have much time to sample until the weekend anyway! Additionally, I've found out that the Argus Defence Fleet are attempting to recapture Obamumbo via sample stockpiling, so I may go help there instead.

Speaking of Mahlina and Control strength, I notice just now that it reports 165%. It was below 2% all evening, actually around 1.9%, all the way until delivery time. Either a specific event caused a lot of extra activity within an approximately 2-hour opportunity to do so, or the strength was reduced 40% at some point after the delivery for Tougeir, neither of which are particularly likely!

If it was an event, I am very curious to know if it was a response to observing a partial delivery; if so, that reduces the opportunity window to around 1 hour, making the activity rate so heavy that it would be as well for such a group to choose their own targets. If it was a strength reduction, it would not be the first which has occurred around one day before the end of a cycle, but rather the 40% causes the lack of likelihood.

There's no sign in the DCoH discord of any activity in Mahlina, and the person I talked to there said there's not much sampling activity from the locals in general so it would be unexpected to see sampling there. It may be worth running a strength test somewhere, I think...

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Additionally, I've found out that the Argus Defence Fleet are attempting to recapture Obamumbo via sample stockpiling, so I may go help there instead.

Interesting; perhaps discover also if Argus Defence Fleet was responsible for Scythia? It was completed very suddenly on a Thursday, and targeting Obamumbo now would fit well with the general pattern of having adopted M. Indra.

There's no sign in the DCoH discord of any activity in Mahlina, and the person I talked to there said there's not much sampling activity from the locals in general so it would be unexpected to see sampling there. It may be worth running a strength test somewhere, I think...

Definitely some measurements, yes! We used the system 19 Puppis, at which I noticed there were many Carriers belonging to Guardianes del Espacio Profundo, but either way the low probabilities for Mahlina of coincident delivery or coincident combat seem to compete with something having changed.

If we reach this evening and such a change is still a possibility, I will aim for INIV to start with a full simultaneous delivery for a weaker inhabited system; any other gauging of Alert or Control strength in the meantime is most welcome!

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Scythia was GXI, I think.

 

[Starsong]

I've delivered 177 samples for Gaezatorix (17.09Ly) as a strength test. It's had zero activity the entire cycle, so should be unaffected by interference. Just have to wait and see what the tick shows it as...
EDIT: WarProgress is 0.016311. I assume that means Mahlina was someone else's effort.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Pegasi Sectors JH-U b3-9 and UK-L a9-0, 70 Tauri, Cephei Sector BV-Y b2, Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69, Ixbaksha and HIP 110626! That completes all remaining Alert systems, and places the total at fifty-one this week.

I've delivered 177 samples for Gaezatorix (17.09Ly) as a strength test. It's had zero activity the entire cycle, so should be unaffected by interference. Just have to wait and see what the tick shows it as...
EDIT: WarProgress is 0.016311. I assume that means Mahlina was someone else's effort.

Indeed; thank you for providing an extra check! It may point to the present estimate being around 1% over, but not any major difference, such that the extra activity at Mahlina may have been a partial harvest stopped and delivered in response to seeing something from our delivery in progress.

HIP 110626 also measured normally; the estimate was 1538, and delivering 1538 moved it from 0.000208 to 1.000316, placing it at 1537.8.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Week 45, 5th October 3309​

Report
Thirty-eight Alerts repelled at Col 285 Sectors SS-H b11-5, ZE-P c6-16, SS-H b11-4, UN-H b11-3, ZE-P c6-15, WN-Z b14-5, RM-B b14-4, VS-Z b14-0, OC-V d2-96, SM-C b13-0, EA-Q c5-8, RM-B b14-2 and KW-M c7-12, HIPs 9137, 20527, 6570, 20815 and 3006, Hyades Sectors EG-N b7-0, PN-T c3-7, PN-T c3-5, CV-O b6-4 and KH-L b8-0, Arietis Sectors WJ-R b4-0, WJ-R b4-2 and NH-V b2-0, Cephei Sectors FB-X b1-1, AV-Y b0 and AV-Y b6, Pegasi Sectors JH-U b3-8, MN-S b4-0 and MN-S b4-2, Holvandalla, Vistnero, 58 Tauri, 92 Sigma-2 Tauri, Unktety and Luggerates.
Thirty-one Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors UC-B b14-0, RM-C b13-1 and MG-E b12-0, Pegasi Sectors PI-S b4-3 and KH-V c2-13, HIPs 23069, 22422, 22688, 19198, 21475, 20397, 22265 and 21261, Hyades Sectors EX-H a11-1, UO-Q b5-2, ST-Q b5-2, ST-Q b5-3, TO-Q b5-2, HW-M b7-5 and EQ-O b6-1, Arietis Sectors OH-V b2-5, TY-P a6-2, LM-V b2-2, OS-R a5-0, TY-P a6-1, LM-V b2-5, TY-P a6-0, JR-V b2-4 and MM-V b2-1, Vaipacnali and 86 Rho Tauri.
Nine Matrix systems cleared provisionally at Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4, Hyades Sectors NT-I b9-4, DX-H a11-1, ST-Q b5-5, HW-M b7-4 and EG-N b7-1, HR 1358, HIP 22350 and Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0.
Three recaptured systems starting Recovery are Vaipacnali and HIPs 19198 and 21261.

Targets updated at 06:30 12th October 3309
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-112 Control 80% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty, 102 strength
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3 Matrix 66% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6 Control 64% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty, 229 strength
HIP 117229 Control 58% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty, 289 strength
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1 Control 56% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty, 312 strength
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1 Control 54% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty, 343 strength
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-0 Control 54% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty, 337 strength
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20 Control 48% — Raijin 22 Ly, empty, 434 strength
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3 Control 48% — Raijin 22 Ly, empty, 439 strength
Modigi Control 44% — Taranis 18 Ly, 5045 strength
HIP 22496 Control 36% — Indra 22 Ly, 2261 strength
97 i Tauri Control 30% — Indra 21 Ly, 2748 strength
HIP 22524 Control 26% — Indra 20 Ly, 3385 strength
Obamumbo Control 18% *18.4% — Indra 19 Ly, 6165 strength
HIP 113785 Control 16% *16.9% — Raijin 19 Ly, empty, 1299 strength
HIP 20419 Control 14% — Indra 18 Ly, 7802 strength
Iduni Control 14% — Raijin 22 Ly, 2900 strength
HIP 20577 Control 14% — Indra 18 Ly, 8085 strength
HR 1354 Control 12% *13.4% — Indra 18 Ly, 8108 strength
HIP 20679 Control 12% *13.4% — Indra 18 Ly, 8013 strength
HIP 113535 Control 12% *13% — Raijin 20 Ly, 3794 strength
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 Control 12% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2597 strength
Cephei Sector AF-A c9 Control 10% — Oya 16 Ly, empty, 2545 strength
HIP 8525 Control 8% *8.7% — Oya 18 Ly, 8351 strength
Vasupari Control 6% *6.9% — Hadad 18 Ly, 8279 strength
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1 Control 6% — Thor 22 Ly, empty, 809 strength
HIP 18075 Control 6% — Thor 21 Ly, 3538 strength
Humarala Control 4% *5.9% — Raijin 18 Ly, 8795 strength
Kurumanit Control 4% *5.5% — Cocijo 20 Ly, 4237 strength
Liu Huang Control 4% *5.3% — Oya 18 Ly, 9002 strength
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-0 Control 4% *4.3% — Hadad 16 Ly, empty, 2597 strength
Akbakara Control 4% — Oya 18 Ly, 8258 strength
Dhang Tzela Control 4% — Thor 19 Ly, 6752 strength
HIP 20024 Control 4% — Thor 19 Ly, 5572 strength
Chnemine Control 4% — Raijin 18 Ly, 9325 strength
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-4 Control 4% — Hadad 21 Ly, empty, 924 strength
HIP 116351 Control 4% — Raijin 18 Ly, 9324 strength
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1 Control 2% *3.3% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty, 1331 strength
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0 Matrix 2% *3.1% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty
HIP 13179 Control 2% *2.9% — Oya 15 Ly, 14.6k strength
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-0 Control 2% *2.5% — Hadad 18 Ly, empty, 1759 strength
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2 Matrix 2% *2.2% — Cocijo 24 Ly, empty
HIP 24723 Control 2% — Taranis 18 Ly, empty, 1771 strength
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-2 Control 2% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty, 1561 strength

Notes
Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-0 was completed with 399 versus an estimated 398.1, with actual progress 101.0592% and projected strength 394.8, which appears unchanged.
The Alert report lists predicted attackers which can be stopped this week.

Week 44, 28th September 3309​

Report
Thirty-eight Alerts repelled at Hyades Sectors EB-N b7-0, LY-I b9-5, OT-I b9-1 and GW-W d1-88, Col 285 Sectors KW-M c7-29, OR-B b14-4, KW-M c7-16, JW-M c7-10, RM-B b14-0, BA-P c6-16, OS-T d3-105, WY-F b12-5, UH-C b13-0, OB-E b12-4, SS-H b11-3, TH-C b13-3, JG-O c6-5, SW-D b12-2 and KM-V d2-69, Pegasi Sectors LC-U b3-2, JH-U b3-9 and UK-L a9-0, Arietis Sectors KM-W c1-15, FG-Y d66 and MX-U c2-17, Trianguli Sectors CA-A c15 and EQ-Y b1, 77 Theta-1 Tauri, HIPs 20485 and 20712, Cephei Sectors DQ-Y b1, ZE-A c8, WO-A b4 and BV-Y b2, Hyadum II, Balak, 70 Tauri and Ixbaksha.
Five Invasions defended at HIPs 11111, 20890, 25679 and 20616, and Omumba.
Eight Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors XT-Q c5-6 and RH-B b14-2, Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1, Hyades Sectors JN-K b8-3 and LX-U d2-95, Tougeir, Mahlina and HIP 110626.
In addition to the defended Invasions, three recaptured systems starting Recovery are Tougeir, Mahlina and HIP 110626.

 

[Weps]

I haven't been keeping up with the war and its mechanics, but this week I tried to do some low intensity CZs in controlled systems around Indra. I noticed that in most (if not all) cases after the initial wave of Cyclopes, the second wave consists of Medusas.They mop the floor with all the NPCs and are impossible to beat for someone without the right ship, available time or quantity of caffeine.

Is this a function of the proximity to the maelstrom? Or has there been any change to CZ scaling that I missed? Or is it simply a scenario bug that I should report? I remember seeing Medusas only in CZs medium or higher.

 

[Kira Goto]

Is this a function of the proximity to the maelstrom? Or has there been any change to CZ scaling that I missed? Or is it simply a scenario bug that I should report? I remember seeing Medusas only in CZs medium or higher.

I remember seeing Medusas in low intensity AX CZs even before the war kicked off, in a CG in Andecavi that was in the leadup to it(so before the Maelstroms/Titans arrived). I have no reference points from before then, but it’s certainly not a change that came with the war itself.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

Intensity only determines how long the CZ lasts (how many kills it takes to fill the progress bar) and how many hydras appear at the end, not what can spawn in.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

Intensity only determines how long the CZ lasts (how many kills it takes to fill the progress bar) and how many hydras appear at the end, not what can spawn in.

It doesn't affect what CAN spawn it, but usually there's some budgeting going on in games that spawn waves and there might be something weird going on with the flow of some CZs where it defaults to spawning cyclops unless some rare condition is met. This means what does spawn it might be very skewed towards just cyclopses.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

I think it's pretty well agreed by everyone that the spawn variety is crap, I was just pointing out that it's not related to the intensity.

 

[yttrbio]

Probably-important news: There is progress being registered in the Barnacle Matrix systems. A hypothesis is that this is caused by rescues from the titans, but I'm not sure there's any way to prove that. It isn't evently-distributed, so maybe each big turn-in goes to a random system? Or it may be unrelated?