Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Ian Doncaster]

Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3 and 5 Mu Leporis seem to be getting dragged along with the Matrix systems as well.

This effect doesn't require Matrix systems to be in the exterior range - the three inhabited outer Controls at Oya are moving in step, for example.

Whether the effect strength depends on how many systems are in the periphery zone is definitely an open question - I'd suspect not, given the pre-U17 behaviour was to apply the same effect to all counterstrike systems regardless of how many there were at each Maelstrom - and in that case, the only reason to directly act on a periphery system would be to push it over the line - but should be relatively straightforward to test in theory by doing the same action at a couple of the quieter ones with different numbers of periphery systems.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Another 2%-point for the Matrix systems while Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 remains at 86%; I think that observation is sufficient to conclude that the Matrix systems are not simply helping all of their peripheral systems, however defined. Either the Matrix systems are a rising tide which helps their full group, or are being held back by the burden of carrying their full group.

Whether the effect strength depends on how many systems are in the periphery zone is definitely an open question - I'd suspect not, given the pre-U17 behaviour was to apply the same effect to all counterstrike systems regardless of how many there were at each Maelstrom

The difference with Titan rescues for the Counterstrike systems is that the progress there was against the system strength! Given the percentage behaviour here, I am a bit worried about the rising-tide approach being chosen—I think there would be no reason to enter a peripheral system at all, even to secure a completion, over entering the Matrix system and securing completion there instead. Both due to being more interesting for joint operations and due to the Galaxy map wording regarding prioritising defences, I would have thought we have a holding-back scenario, which is also a good strategy¹ on the part of the Thargoids given that each of those individual supporting systems are prone to another instance of reinforcement.

Supposing the holding-back is the case, the fact that three sites are supporting each other cannot be helped, but systems such as 5 Mu Leporis ought then to be high-priority for individual activity! To keep it at the same percentage that way, its higher strength would mean that it is draining so much more from those Commanders on the ground than Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 was or Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3 is. The sites can not complete without also completing all of these other systems, so keeping 5 Mu Leporis ahead of the sites would be great for minimising relocation of AX wings.

Titan rescues would be a great way to keep a lot of smaller systems ahead if they overlap between being Counterstrike and Peripheral, and at M. Taranis I am quite sure that Modigi would be burdening the Matrix push had it not received attention! The rising-tide scenario would be disappointing; it would mean trying to take Modigi or 5 Mu Leporis is completely pointless. Holding-back draws my attention onto the Matrix activity, while rising-tide pushes it away—rather than getting involved, it would be as well to wait around until a Maelstrom loses all of its Matrix sites.

1. Given the Matrix sites already present, that is. Unless they really needed those materials, building the sites was a bad strategy due to giving Commanders a new way to win.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I think there would be no reason to enter a peripheral system at all, even to secure a completion, over entering the Matrix system and securing completion there instead

If those approaches are both possible, sure.

If there was a particular reason to want those Hyades controls at Taranis taken out this week, though, it's likely considerably easier to do it directly than by pushing the periphery tide upwards; even more so at the other Maelstroms - even if a completion of the periphery tide might be a more substantial victory overall.

 

[Starsong]

Something that might be interesting to see is if Modigi and GW-W/DQ-O get taken out this cycle, whether the affected front then moves inwards?

 

[Kira Goto]

Here’s a thing I’m curious about - the difficulty of clearing a system containing a spire site without surrounding controls. The two at Leigong could well prove interesting to that, as I doubt their presence will be anything less than troublesome to the front, but they have no controls nearby(to my knowledge).

I’d certainly be quite surprised if they didn’t act like ‘mini-Titans’ allowing Thargoids to deploy from there, with their own separate difficulty curves, and potentially alert budget. I’ve definitely seen interceptors(currently, Orthrus only) leave from the biggest of the towers, and occasionally enter it.

I guess we’ll know that second part on Thursday, at least…

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in HIP 116360, Kurumanit, Modigi and Col 285 Sectors ZT-F b12-4, BF-E b13-0, DA-E b13-4, UN-H b11-2, UN-H b11-5 and ZT-F b12-2! Despite being one of the more disrupted weeks, we reached sixty-one systems showing completion.

Given the first few Matrix sites reaching 90% after having only a few days to explore them, those look very much achievable over a normal week. I am still relying on others to determine exactly what the helpful actions are; presumably destroying Banshees is useful, and the presence of the word investigate for a listed action suggests that delivering those new items to Palin is correct, given the request for them.

Yet to be discovered is what happens now if a Matrix system is completed, short of a huge activity surge in the last hour of course!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Week 47, 19th October 3309​

Report
Thirty-eight Alerts repelled at HIPs 21125, 20485, 25679, 20712 and 7338, Pegasi Sectors NY-O a7-1, OI-S b4-4, LC-U b3-2 and JH-U b3-9, Hyades Sectors LY-I b9-5, JN-K b8-1 and GB-N b7-5, Col 285 Sectors EA-Q c5-7, JG-O c6-5, BA-P c6-16, OB-E b12-4, OR-B b14-4, KW-M c7-29, KB-O c6-2, XT-Q c5-22, SS-H b11-0, SS-H b11-3, KW-M c7-16, RM-B b14-6, WY-F b12-5 and JW-M c7-10, Arietis Sectors JM-W d1-56, FG-Y d66 and NX-U c2-19, Cephei Sectors DQ-Y b1, WO-A b4 and BV-Y b2, Hyadum II, 77 Theta-1 Tauri, Trianguli Sectors CA-A c22 and EQ-Y b6, Nibelaako and 70 Tauri.
One Invasion defended at Njorog.
Forty Control evictions at Obamumbo, Col 285 Sectors KM-V d2-122, RH-B b14-3, UH-C b13-1, KB-O c6-3, JA-G b11-0, KW-M c7-28, PM-B b14-4, SH-B b14-7, WN-Z b14-2 and WN-Z b14-3, Hyades Sectors GW-W d1-99, DQ-O b6-3, BV-O b6-3, HW-M b7-3, JH-U b3-5, IH-U b3-3, JH-U b3-4, PI-S b4-0, WK-L a9-2, ON-S b4-7 and AR-J a10-1, 5 Mu Leporis, Arietis Sectors FG-Y d38, WJ-R b4-1, NS-R a5-1, JM-T a4-0 and FL-X b1-1, Pegasi Sectors OI-S b4-6, QE-N a8-1, LY-O a7-3, MY-O a7-3, LY-O a7-5, QE-N a8-5 and PE-N a8-4, HIPs 21091, 20577, 18075 and 7277, and HR 2138.
Four Matrix systems cleared provisionally at Hyades Sectors EG-N b7-1, HW-M b7-4 and HW-M b7-1, and Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1.
In addition to the defended Invasion, five recaptured systems starting Recovery are Obamumbo, 5 Mu Leporis and HIPs 20577, 18075 and 7277.

Targets updated at 06:30 26th October 3309
HIP 7819 Control 50% — Leigong 18 Ly, 4916 strength
Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4 Matrix 48% *49.7% — Leigong 30 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector MX-U c2-19 Matrix 48% *49.4% — Leigong 24 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4 Matrix 48% — Leigong 31 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71 Control 42% — Raijin 26 Ly, 891 strength
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93 Control 42% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty, 342 strength
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0 Control 42% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty, 232 strength
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3 Control 42% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty, 240 strength
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-5 Control 42% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty, 296 strength
Cephei Sector AF-A c9 Control 40% — Oya 16 Ly, empty, 1697 strength
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 Control 30% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2066 strength
Liu Huang Control 26% — Oya 18 Ly, 7036 strength
Akbakara Control 26% — Oya 18 Ly, 6371 strength
HIP 8525 Control 24% *25.5% — Oya 18 Ly, 6815 strength
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-0 Control 24% *25.2% — Taranis 12 Ly, empty, 6715 strength
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3 Matrix 24% *24.8% — Hadad 24 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6 Control 24% — Cocijo 23 Ly, empty, 528 strength
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2 Matrix 24% — Cocijo 24 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6 Control 24% — Cocijo 23 Ly, empty, 568 strength
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-5 Control 24% — Cocijo 24 Ly, empty, 431 strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-136 Control 24% — Cocijo 23 Ly, empty, 553 strength
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-2 Control 24% — Cocijo 23 Ly, empty, 520 strength
HIP 13179 Control 22% — Oya 15 Ly, 11.7k strength
Daruwach Control 18% — Oya 16 Ly, 11.4k strength
Dhang Tzela Control 10% — Thor 19 Ly, 6329 strength
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1 Control 8% *9.8% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 3700 strength
HIP 20024 Control 8% *9.2% — Thor 19 Ly, 5267 strength
Chanyaya Control 4% *4.1% — Thor 16 Ly, 12.5k strength
HIP 19894 Control 4% — Thor 16 Ly, 12.4k strength
HIP 113535 Control 4% — Raijin 20 Ly, 4191 strength
Vasupari Control 2% *3.2% — Hadad 18 Ly, 8610 strength
HIP 22496 Control 2% *2.6% — Indra 22 Ly, 3439 strength
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2 Control 2% *2.5% — Taranis 16 Ly, empty, 2546 strength

Notes
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-122 was completed with 368 versus an estimated 367.77, with actual progress 100.6080% and projected strength 365.8, which appears unchanged.
SNPX requests that the Alert system HIP 7338 reaches Invasion. Source
The Alert report lists predicted attackers which can be stopped this week.

Week 46, 12th October 3309​

Report
Thirty-six Alerts repelled at Col 285 Sectors PM-B b14-3, KW-M c7-31, RM-B b14-8, XT-Q c5-1, TS-H b11-0, YT-F b12-6, NG-E b12-3, NG-E b12-4, ZE-P c6-10, ZT-F b12-8, SH-B b14-2, SH-B b14-5 and UH-C b13-2, Pegasi Sectors NN-S b4-4, RE-N a8-0 and DG-X c1-6, HIPs 21386, 21008, 19600, 19157 and 116360, Ebisu, Cephei Sectors AF-A c21 and AF-A c22, Nu Guang, Arietis Sectors JR-V b2-1, XJ-R b4-2, WJ-R b4-3, LM-V b2-3 and MX-U c2-18, Hyades Sectors FB-N b7-3 and MY-I b9-0, 55 Tauri, Pathamon, Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4 and Gliese 9035.
Twenty-five Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors SH-B b14-3, PM-B b14-0, RH-B b14-0, OS-T d3-106, ZT-F b12-4, BF-E b13-0, DA-E b13-4, UN-H b11-2, UN-H b11-5 and ZT-F b12-2, Pegasi Sectors GW-W d1-112, PI-S b4-6, ZQ-J a10-1, ZQ-J a10-0, UK-L a9-1, UK-L a9-3, KH-V c2-20, PE-N a8-0 and YQ-J a10-0, HIPs 117229 and 24723, Chinas, Iduni, Kurumanit and Modigi.
Four recaptured systems starting Recovery are Chinas, Iduni, Kurumanit and Modigi.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

One more specific note on the empty Alert front this week, I presume relevant mostly for @Phill P and PDES—the Alert system Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19 is the bridge into our little M. Leigong district by the Titan, beyond which we are not continuing unless the Matrix system Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3 is cleared¹.

The default plan is to stop it as Control before it attacks, which at present we have scheduled next week on Friday 27th October. It is quite fine to stop it as Alert this week instead, especially if said Matrix system does get cleared, but by all means leave it if you would like a longer respite duration and one of your targets accounted!

1. Cleared, and also becoming known that a cleared Matrix system can attack no longer.

 

[Kira Goto]

Well, at least the Matrix/spire site systems don’t get reset to zero progress on the weekly switchover. Was almost concerned that it might be the case.

(I checked in the game if anyone did want to be sure.)

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

@Aleks Zuno : next try: SNPX requests invasion for HIP 7338

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-122, HIP 21125, Obamumbo (well done!), Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1 and Hyades Sectors GW-W d1-99, JN-K b8-1 and LY-I b9-5! I recall Obamumbo being an Argus target, although the completion timing could indicate GXI again, but either way the interesting early-on-Thursday pattern of inhabited Control recaptures continues.

The emerging patterns are indicating that the additional progress via Matrix sites has a limit of 85% for non-Matrix systems, which can be seen below with 5 Mu Leporis and two others holding at 84% in terms of 2%-points, and that it seems to affect ten outer systems—including themselves, and including Alerts. As doubtless I will keep mentioning as long as I keep thinking about it, we lack a strength experiment to show whether that Matrix activity is divided or duplicated (for example, Titan rescues are duplicated).

Those Control systems below at M. Taranis now require individual completion; INIV could visit if needed, although it will be after Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-3, for which we have approximately half.

Invasions at 06:50 20th October 3309:
Njorog Invasion 30% *31.2% — Taranis 15 Ly, 5 ports, 107 Ls planet + 371 Ls outpost attack

Alerts:
HIP 25679 Alert 40% — Taranis 17 Ly, 108 Ls outpost, 1960 Ls planet
HIP 20485 Alert 16% — Indra 21 Ly, 27 Ls starport

Eviction:
5 Mu Leporis Control 84% — Taranis 19 Ly, 1040 strength

Clean-up:
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9 Alert 96% — Raijin 20 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1 Matrix 94% *95.5% — Taranis 18 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-1 Matrix 94% — Taranis 19 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-4 Matrix 94% — Taranis 18 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56 Alert 86% — Leigong 18 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-3 Control 84% — Taranis 17 Ly, empty, 350 strength
Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 Control 84% — Taranis 18 Ly, empty, 294 strength

@Aleks Zuno : next try: SNPX requests invasion for HIP 7338

Try indeed! With so few inhabited Alert systems this week it will be unlikely and Njorog may have to suffice, but it is at least labelled here in the list for this week.

 

[CMDR Aldebaran]

For the last couple of days I've been snooping round the spire site at Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0. On all occasions many other CMDRs there doing their thing. Saw

Spoiler: Spolier

plenty of interceptors killed, including a couple orthruses which i tagged and got bonds for,and I was able to land and obtain some spire samples which I turned in. Yet system progress remains at 0%. Is it bugged or am I missing something. Both activities (killing thargoid craft and investigating the site) were clearly underway..

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Yet system progress remains at 0%.

Spire progress seems to deflect onto the periphery systems of the Maelstrom - narratively, rather than risk losing the spire, the Thargoids transfer forces from their less critical systems to reinforce it - and EQ-Y b0 is far enough from the edge to benefit from this effect.

You'll (probably: needs more precise testing!) have contributed to the substantial damage being done to many of Taranis' outer systems this week, though.

 

[CMDR Aldebaran]

Spire progress seems to deflect onto the periphery systems of the Maelstrom - narratively, rather than risk losing the spire, the Thargoids transfer forces from their less critical systems to reinforce it - and EQ-Y b0 is far enough from the edge to benefit from this effect.

You'll (probably: needs more precise testing!) have contributed to the substantial damage being done to many of Taranis' outer systems this week, though.

Ah I see.. I sort of thought from posts on this thread that progress there helped other systems but also moved that system too.. perhaps I just misunderstood. What you say makes sense for narrative like you say

 

[Kira Goto]

narratively, rather than risk losing the spire, the Thargoids transfer forces from their less critical systems to reinforce it

Which then makes it weird that they are using the forces from another spire site to defend the one getting hit and just risk losing all three?

Unless all three of the Taranis sites are seeing a perfectly uniform and balanced effort to see them cleared, which… I find extremely doubtful, to be quite honest.

(I’m not sure those spires are gonna go anywhere even now when the site is cleared. Maybe they’ll just go inactive, or maybe there’s just not going to be any Orthrus flying around.)

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I sort of thought from posts on this thread that progress there helped other systems but also moved that system too.. perhaps I just misunderstood.

Sometimes it does both - quite a few of the spire systems, because of their previous invincibility, are also the furthest from the Titan, so the direct kills don't affect it but they generate an indirect effect which does. EQ-Y b0 is (just!) clear of the zone Taranis will draw from this week.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

With the latter 15% of M. Taranis forces at those outer Control systems holding position, and with those outer three Matrix systems almost complete, I am quite curious to discover what happens amid one weekly cycle. If the opposite of our progress represents the remaining Thargoid forces, those outer systems ought to become depleted and leave Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0 with nothing remaining from which to draw, perhaps after the Alerts such as HIP 25679 and Hyades Sector GB-N b7-5 also reach 85%.

Now that I think about it, I want to request that those Control systems at M. Taranis remain incomplete for the moment—consider them warranted before the end of this week, but leave them intact at least today! My thoughts are to watch for outcomes such as the following:

• Despite losing all reinforcements, Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0 still refuses to move, perhaps until next week.
• Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0 moves when all other reinforcement options are exhausted—
  • After those 85%-progress systems are used eventually?
  • Leaving the final 15% of Thargoid forces stationed?

I am also a bit suspicious that the Matrix systems may not be simply cleared and the site abandoned, although it is possible and could be interesting to see what becomes of an abandoned site. The Galaxy Map text suggests that completion is useful, insofar as mention of Thargoid priorities implies it will be difficult but not impossible, but still I wonder whether the cleared state will hold long-term or whether the Galaxy Map is lying and it will introduce a new "dormant site" state.

If attacks stop long-term, I would like to see a general move over to M. Leigong where domination is most achievable, but it is a lot to ask from a lot of Commanders! If the M. Leigong sites start falling, especially Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3, it will have our attention for complete Thargoid removal.

 

[Captain-MD]

I'm still not entirely clear on what the strategy for progression is on these Spires. Is it delivering stuff to Palin still or will it only move systems if it came from a Counterstrike Spire? I've been with my squad on the Spire in Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-3, cleaned all ground guards, turned stuff into Baird Gateway, and saw no progression (still 0.00 WarProgress). I'm attempting to sweep a counterstrike Spire in Cocijo to see if I can move something there.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I'm still not entirely clear on what the strategy for progression is on these Spires. Is it delivering stuff to Palin still or will it only move systems if it came from a Counterstrike Spire? I've been with my squad on the Spire in Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-3, cleaned all ground guards, turned stuff into Baird Gateway, and saw no progression (still 0.00 WarProgress). I'm attempting to sweep a counterstrike Spire in Cocijo to see if I can move something there.

It doesn't seem possible to move spires directly by actions in them.

Instead, certain actions seem to cause progress on the ten most distant (Alert, Control, presumably Invasion) systems from the Titan - which can include progress on Spire systems.
- known to work: rescuing people from the Titan itself (it seems that about 650 rescues are needed for each % point on the outer systems)
- slightly less clear: actions in Spire systems are also likely to help (unknown effectiveness)

In the case of Thor, PB-E b12-3 is about 30 systems in, so doesn't appear to be possible to move at all. But ... your actions may well have contributed to / entirely caused the 6% progress which has appeared at 9 of 10 of Thor's outer systems (the 10th being an Alert which is already completed) which will make everyone else's work in those systems easier - and as one of those is the Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 spire system which can't otherwise be recaptured, that's a big benefit too.

If your squad is willing to help narrow things down a bit, you could do the following experiment:
- jump into one of Thor's 10 outer systems (Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3 is likely the most convenient given the side of the Maelstrom you're on), and look up the exact progress value given in the journal
- clear out the Matrix site with combat for a while (collect loot too, but don't yet deliver it), trying to keep track of your killcounts
- wait an hour or so, and then go back to KB-O c6-3 to recheck the progress
- then go and deliver all the loot (don't forget to count it first!)
- wait another hour, recheck progress again
- let everyone know what progress each step got

If you're enjoying raiding and looting the spire enough, you could repeat this a few times to see if the changes stay consistent, which should help rule out effects from other groups doing things like Titan rescues or attacking other spires.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

- slightly less clear: actions in Spire systems are also likely to help (unknown effectivenes

If actions in the actual spire site count then that means only odyssey players can contribute, not sure how much that will cull the playerbase. Probably not much, but if there's a CG to collect these materials for research in the future then it would be the first odyssey only CG.

I tried taking and selling ~60 spire refinery compound from Ceti Sector BQ-Y b4 a few hours ago, both taking and selling it didn't provide a noticeable effect - any ~0.1% progress might just have been other people doing random stuff.