Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Kira Goto]

Maybe some further observation is due for the spire activities, because I also am under the impression that their progress provision is not static, and rather is affected by distance to the Titan. Whereas pod recovery provides a static boost.

Unless Frontier changed that after the initial update week, it looked that way when the spire sites around Indra were getting hit, with higher distance systems seeing slightly more progress faster, than the ones a little closer in. This cycle has probably advanced too far to make any kind of observation though, as progress is scattered all over the place by a few % at pretty much every Titan.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Unless Frontier changed that after the initial update week

This does appear to be the case. Pre-U17 it was very obvious that further out systems were going faster, and inhabited systems were going slower. So it knocked them over one at a time from the outside (and that targeted also counterstrike rather than periphery so often involved a much wider distance range)

Currently, if you look at Cocijo's outer controls, they're all on basically 50% despite being spread over a 3LY range.
Similarly at Leigong they're all at 64% (including the much closer inhabited one) - except for the one which didn't have carried progress from the previous week and so is only 46%.

Getting Taranis to 85%/100% this week didn't seem much different in terms of elapsed time to last week, despite it hitting a lot closer in and involving more inhabited systems, for that matter, though it's of course possible that more people were working on it.

 

[Kira Goto]

This does appear to be the case. Pre-U17 it was very obvious that further out systems were going faster, and inhabited systems were going slower. So it knocked them over one at a time from the outside (and that targeted also counterstrike rather than periphery so often involved a much wider distance range)

Currently, if you look at Cocijo's outer controls, they're all on basically 50% despite being spread over a 3LY range.
Similarly at Leigong they're all at 64% (including the much closer inhabited one) - except for the one which didn't have carried progress from the previous week and so is only 46%.

Getting Taranis to 85%/100% this week didn't seem much different in terms of elapsed time to last week, despite it hitting a lot closer in and involving more inhabited systems, for that matter, though it's of course possible that more people were working on it.

I get it for the pods, but I’m more looking at the new activity of hitting the spires themselves. It sure feels a lot like that in itself is affected by the distance to the Titans.

Problem currently is that I’ve not really got anything to prove that idea, but when U17 dropped on the 16th and people started slamming Indra’s spires that week, it sure felt like the unpopulated controls further out progressed a little bit faster than the further in ones did.

Or, I guess, one could just look at populated systems where there isn’t as much pod recovery occurring. Last week, Oya saw more progress in the uninhabited Cephei Sector AF-A c9 than any of the others affected(which are all formerly populated). And I don’t think people really went there to fight* as opposed to the progress coming from poking spires.

*At a significant enough level to cause a discrepancy of around 20/22% to Daruwach, which sits at a similar distance to the Titan.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Sure - that's why I'm looking at where the discrepancies aren't. Any difference between two systems can be potentially explained by local activity (no matter how odd the motivations for doing so might seem), whereas a team of people making precisely targeted moves to keep systems from developing discrepancies is a level of showing off that seems not to be the simplest explanation

Cocijo is moving in virtually perfect lockstep among all their periphery systems regardless of range or habitation. Indra and Taranis and Thor did the same until they hit the cap. Raijin still is (if you allow for half the systems starting the week with leftovers from last week)
Even at Oya, Daruwach and Akbakara are still identical despite a significant difference in their direct recapture difficulty; AF-A c9 is slightly ahead but nowhere near as much as its relative difficulty would expect.

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

But is it possible that alert systems get more progress by spire site actions than controls? This cycle the 4 uninhabited alert systems were completed within a day, but noone of us did harveting work there... So sure, someone else might have worked there, but such fast evictions are rather untypical compared to the cycles before.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

But is it possible that alert systems get more progress by spire site actions than controls? This cycle the 4 uninhabited alert systems were completed within a day, but noone of us did harveting work there... So sure, someone else might have worked there, but such fast evictions are rather untypical compared to the cycles before.

Alerts are more difficult to observe, but they seemed to get the same percentages. If those Commanders were thinking the way we did at the start of the week by starting with HIP 29226 to guard our space, the average lower Peripheral progress at M. Oya could have attracted attention there first! It could have been somewhere to start while awaiting the good Peripheral progress elsewhere.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

I suppose, without any immediate nominal objection—

Operation Deleted​

Primary goal​

Remove all Thargoid presence from every system surrounding Titan Taranis, leaving only the Maelstrom system Hyades Sector FB-N b7-6.

• Observe what, if anything, occurs as a result.

Actions​

In the systems around M. Taranis:

• Maximise the peripheral progress each week.
• Evict all Control from peripheral systems after completion, first for the final twenty, then for the final ten.
• Repel all Alerts until the final ten.
• Either repel all Alerts at the final ten, or defend any resulting Invasions later.

Plenty of upcoming Control progress will be collected in advance, with an early start in week 48. The excellent Alert completion on which we rely need only continue, assisted by the peripheral progress and nullified permanently upon success, excepting a new situation arising.

In the final ten it is pertinent to place Hupang first to limit the impact of losing the last Spire, and Hyades Sector BV-O b6-2 last to aid its restoration if needed. Remember to deliver after the full periphery progress has occurred, such as when a Matrix system reaches 86%!

The Periphery completion difficulty was increased at the beginning of week 49. The same plan remains possible, but it will require much more concerted Titan and Spire activity at M. Taranis each week.

The Periphery completion difficulty was increased again at the beginning of week 51. Peripheral progress for non-Matrix systems is now worthwhile only for the very innermost, and completions are attainable only with the majority of Commanders all supporting them.

Inventory​

Final twenty​	Held​	Needed​	Location​	Notes
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-0​	925​	924​	INV. Wrath of Winter​	Delivered week 49
HIP 23816​	5900​	5898​	INV. Light of Achenar​	Delivered week 50
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4​	1330​	1327​	INV. Light of Achenar​	Delivered week 50
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-0​	1347+​	1347​	CMDR Daedalus Spyke​	Delivered week 50 • Update
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-1​	1460​	1458​	INV. Light of Achenar​	Delivered week 50
Final ten​	Held​	Needed​	Location​	Notes
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-2 *	1700​	1640​	LLV Negotiator​	Delivered week 51 • Update
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-4​	2200​	2120​	INV. Wrath of Winter​	Delivered week 51
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2​	2700​	2595​	INV. Wrath of Winter​	Delivered week 51
Hupang​	10370​	10368​	INV Astral Flame​	Delivered week 51
HR 1737​	11500​	11363​	INV. Light of Achenar​	Delivered week 51
Swahku​	17342+​	17342​	Ascension Light​	Delivered week 51 • Update

* To be completed last, and ideally held separately.

 

[Kira Goto]

Well, good luck, and, have fun I guess. At the very least, it will be curious to see if there is any kind of response protocol programmed into a Titan location if it loses all of its systems(since it has been established that they don’t place alerts of their own).

Assuming it all pans out as planned, of course. We all know how much reality loves its curveballs.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Well, good luck, and, have fun I guess. At the very least, it will be curious to see if there is any kind of response protocol programmed into a Titan location if it loses all of its systems(since it has been established that they don’t place alerts of their own).

Thank you! Definitely the very same curiosity as before still drives me now, and reducing the total Alert strength is something I have wanted for a while.

The fate of a Titan here is something I have been considering, and it ties together a bit with some quite positive feedback I have been meaning to write, notwithstanding the lack of an updated official feedback place. To skip to the main point, the inability of a Titan to attack is something I could appreciate all the more when I realised how vulnerable the Titan really is, at least without its Control systems and its octagonal overwatch to protect it.

The Titan can show spectacular displays of energy and it may look imposing as a silhouette in the distance, but to me its sounds connote desperation. Its turret fire was unexpectedly weak, and the turrets themselves look like a pale imitation of Human technology which may have been absent without anybody from whom to steal. It feels as if the Titan cannot attack because sending forces away would leave it completely helpless, which I found to be a quite nice thought!

 

[Kira Goto]

May be, but we also somewhat lack the means to really do anything about the Titan itself. So it could well just end up sitting there… menacingly. While doing nothing. But its defense fleet would surely be isolated from the ones sent out to attack. Not to mention the many ships that were not destroyed by retaking systems through… somewhat questionable(in why they seem effective) alternate means.

Though I have to admit I was also surprised at how relatively impotent the turrets felt when I got shot by them during pod recovery runs(the Glaive that was responsible for the detection did worse damage to the ship). But I’m not sure whether to take that as lore or gameplay, because I never felt like the capital ships in human conflict zones are all that they are made out to be either. Other than the light show produced by their guns, that is.

(I also have to wonder why there would not be any larger weapons installed on the Titan than a few turrets that could, maybe, swat away a fighter. Or they are not visible, but the design of the ship does not clearly convey the presence of larger anti-ship or station weaponry.)

 

[Medi0cr3]

Reminds me of modern date Carrier Strike Groups.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

Sooo has anyone been hunting Orthrus in their NHSS threat 4 signals? Something is a little bit different since the update... unclear if it's intended or not.

Spoiler

{ "timestamp":"2023-10-31T01:53:21Z", "event":"USSDrop", "USSType":"$USS_Type_NonHuman;", "USSType_Localised":"Nonhuman signal source", "USSThreat":4 }
{ "timestamp":"2023-10-31T01:53:21Z", "event":"SupercruiseDestinationDrop", "Type":"$USS_Type_NonHuman;", "Type_Localised":"Nonhuman signal source", "Threat":4 }
{ "timestamp":"2023-10-31T01:53:24Z", "event":"SupercruiseExit", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Scythia", "SystemAddress":7268024001897, "Body":"Scythia CD", "BodyID":4, "BodyType":"Null" }
...Orthrus #1:
{ "timestamp":"2023-10-31T01:55:34Z", "event":"FactionKillBond", "Reward":40000000, "AwardingFaction":"$faction_PilotsFederation;", "AwardingFaction_Localised":"Pilots' Federation", "VictimFaction":"$faction_Thargoid;", "VictimFaction_Localised":"Thargoids" }
...Orthrus #2:
{ "timestamp":"2023-10-31T01:56:56Z", "event":"FactionKillBond", "Reward":40000000, "AwardingFaction":"$faction_PilotsFederation;", "AwardingFaction_Localised":"Pilots' Federation", "VictimFaction":"$faction_Thargoid;", "VictimFaction_Localised":"Thargoids" }

This has happened several times, but not always.

 

[Medi0cr3]

Since many updates ago, there has been a chance for double Orthrus spawns.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in 79 b Tauri, Col 285 Sectors ZE-P c6-15 and OC-V d2-79, 71 Tauri, Hyades Sector BR-J a10-0, HIP 20616 and Scythia (well done!)!

M. Cocijo is reaching a completed periphery; until it does, the softened targets are at the top of this thread for the moment. We will have at least some time this week for completing some of the stronger peripheral systems, mostly tomorrow depending on target adoption for M. Taranis next week. For that regular reminder, the Matrix system at M. Indra now reports 285%; by all means fly over to Hyades Sector DX-H a11-1 and suggest nicely that one of the Matrix systems below would be better!

Speaking of target adoption for Operation Deleted, around 19:30 this evening we will start preparing all remaining untouched systems for week 49—if any of those are claimed before then, that time in-session will go to Swahku, and for helping other Maelstroms this week.

Peripheries at 07:20 31st October 3309:
Ten systems with 80% — Cocijo 21–24 Ly, 1 matrix, 114–181 strength
Five systems with 54% — Leigong 16–31 Ly, 4 matrix + 1 inhabited, 2753 strength
Five systems with 36% — Oya 16–18 Ly, 4 inhabited, 1527–8932 strength
Seven systems with 24% — Hadad 19–24 Ly, 2 matrix, 807–1171 strength
Ten systems with 14% — Raijin 23–27 Ly, 1 matrix + 3 inhabited, 304–2319 strength

Evictions:
HIP 20024 Control 86% *86.3% — Thor 19 Ly, 791 strength
HIP 7819 Control 72% — Leigong 18 Ly, 2753 strength, Peripheral system
Liu Huang Control 58% *58.2% — Oya 18 Ly, 3970 strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71 Control 24% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1168 strength, Peripheral system

Clean-up:
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-2 Control 98% *99.9% — Thor 20 Ly, empty, 1 strength
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2 Matrix 80% *81.1% — Cocijo 24 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3 Matrix 54% — Leigong 16 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0 Matrix 24% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3 Matrix 14% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty

Sooo has anyone been hunting Orthrus in their NHSS threat 4 signals?

I have seen many zero-Orthrus signals, and some with double-shield and double-shutdown mostly when many Commanders are involved, but never double-Orthrus!

 

[Kira Goto]

Purely out of curiosity, if Hupang and/or HR 1737 around Taranis were retaken then underwent an invasion, how difficult would it be to clear them before they flipped to a control state?

If such an estimate of difficulty in kills, samples or anything is even available, of course. They certainly wouldn’t be the worst defense scenarios if it came to that, looking at available port data on inara.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Purely out of curiosity, if Hupang and/or HR 1737 around Taranis were retaken then underwent an invasion, how difficult would it be to clear them before they flipped to a control state?

As the toughest things in their vicinity, it'd be highly unlikely that they'd be retaken without knocking out anything which could plausibly recapture them as well, either then or in the following four weeks ... but if that did happen, and assuming no significant ability to assist via indirect actions, it'd be a very tough fight by recent standards.

Njorog took about 3 days to clear at 14.7 LY (in a week with no real distractions)
They're both at ~9 LY which is ~2/3 of the distance.
We don't have solid data for invasions so let's assume the approximate "slightly worse than inverse cube" seen for Controls holds.
So that suggests probably around 10 days work to clear them. Of course, the catch there is that the Thargoids will reinforce 33% after the first seven days.

So ... 10% a day, after the first week it's at 70% which gets reinforced down to 37%, and that should just leave enough time to finish it by the end of the second week. But Hupang especially would be short of good stations, so might run into its third and final week with no active stations... The question would be what else slipped through as a result of needing to focus so much effort on a single system for 2-3 weeks.

You said "and/or". So "or" is fine, "and" would probably end up losing both unless there was extreme collective discipline over supporting only one of them (which would be tricky: Hupang would be substantially the worse one to lose in a strategic sense, but HR 1737 has the better selection of stations and probably goes to an extra week) or even more than the normal amounts of players diverted from other Thargoid fights to handle the defence.


(Swahku, at just over 5LY, would probably be entirely impossible to hold at Invasion, not even 10% progress a week before the reinforcements wiped it out, if the patterns so far hold)

 

[Starsong]

(Swahku, at just over 5LY, would probably be entirely impossible to hold at Invasion, not even 10% progress a week before the reinforcements wiped it out, if the patterns so far hold)

The gradient doesn't increase much at the 10Ly juncture - Swakhu is "only" about 53% harder than HR 1737. An attempted defence would still be quite pointless though, as it only has one planetary and it's 35KLs out.

 

[Kira Goto]

I was never thinking Swahku would make for a viable invasion defense scenario anyway, due to proximity. So figured I’d put the thought experiment out for those other two(or, really, just one of them).

Guess it’s just all the more reason to make that plan work right the first time. Or Taranis might need some encouragement to retake one of its spires.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Little intermediate note that M. Cocijo has a finished periphery and some systems already being cleared; the Spire is still alive with 96% at Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2, but after that will be time to move onward! Maelstroms Indra, Taranis, Thor and Cocijo are done for the week, and M. Leigong is the next-highest.

We are just about to resume at M. Taranis with Hyades Sectors GB-N b7-0, BV-O b6-4 and GB-N b7-1 in that order, held until next week. In the meantime—that is to say, while we are nearby if needed—is @Starsong or @Medi0cr3 around with any update regarding Hyades Sector FB-N b7-0?

 

[Starsong]

Little intermediate note that M. Cocijo has a finished periphery and some systems already being cleared; the Spire is still alive with 96% at Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2, but after that will be time to move onward! Maelstroms Indra, Taranis, Thor and Cocijo are done for the week, and M. Leigong is the next-highest.

We are just about to resume at M. Taranis with Hyades Sectors GB-N b7-0, BV-O b6-4 and GB-N b7-1 in that order, held until next week. In the meantime—that is to say, while we are nearby if needed—is @Starsong or @Medi0cr3 around with any update regarding Hyades Sector FB-N b7-0?

The last post I see from Daedalus was him complaining that a run had left him just 20 samples short of the total, so if he isn’t finished yet it’s very close.