Thargoid Titans: The Indra conundrum, the shell gambit and the inactions we need to win

Abstract​

We are going to attempt Titan Indra next after Titan Hadad, but its system density will cause an Alert flood which prevents the final Spire site progress from reaching inward and exposing the Titan. Allowing it some expansion then driving it down to 43 systems in a single week should address both problems.

Foreword​

Everyone has done very well against the Titans thus far, both directly and in the grand context! Many squadrons and Commanders therein all want many different regions of space returned to them, yet thus far everyone has been excellent in enacting a very reasonable alternation between strategic targets and popular targets. Setting aside that the first two were surrounded originally in 3309:
  • As the first to attack us, Titan Taranis had always been the clear popular choice; its systems were of moderate strength and there was one potential strategic problem with the final Spire position, but everything aligned well and we took the opportunity successfully.
  • Titan Leigong was less popular but lived in a very easily-won region of space; it ought to have been first strategically, but definitely it was well not to obstruct the Taranis drive, and that Commanders were then happy to choose an easy and obvious target.
  • Titan Oya was one of the more popular, notably being closest to Sol. It posed not much strategic problem; its inner systems were much stronger, but that challenge was met well!
  • Now we are closing upon Titan Hadad, which has modest popularity generally, but has much easier inner systems and zero strategic trouble. At present the Titan is projected to become vulnerable enough for direct attack on 23rd May 3310.

Assuming Titan Hadad proceeds as expected, and based on the resolute defence effort by many local squadrons represented collectively by the Post-Disaster Evacuation Service and after synchronising plans with the Anti-Xeno Initiative, we will alternate back to the popularity set: Titan Indra.

This one will much more difficult to coordinate, for a few reasons which will become clear! The weekly activity shows well that many Commanders want that space back, and I think we have an option which could work—but it will require patience, and its success relies much on patience not being too much to ask.

The problems​

Our clearance approach used for four Titans thus far will not work at Titan Indra, at least not directly. Considering the core Indra systems, the first problem is that its final Spire site is twelfth place by distance, which means there is a terrible mistake to be made! Whatever we do, that Spire site must not become vulnerable prematurely; we need everything to align so that it helps remove systems closer to the Titan, not farther. Spire sites affect the outermost ten systems each week, so if the Spire site falls, we need that to occur along with a Control reduction which reaches inward and leaves around two remaining systems, not eleven!

The second problem is more complicated to describe, although would become apparent much sooner with a basic clearance effort. Normally the act of clearing Control systems is conducive to itself, because those systems also are needed for Thargoids to launch attacks, thus limiting the attackers can strangle the total attack options and prevent Alerts entirely. This is not at all true around Titan Indra, for its systems are placed so densely that a ten-system periphery will not progress well enough spatially, so there will always be maximum Alerts possible. As long as we still need Spire site progress to reach a Titan, we cannot have that it nine of those ten systems each week are just fighting away new Alerts.

So, we cannot proceed normally because we will reach a point where Spire progress is needed to continue, but is not available due to all the Alerts each week. Thargoids can attack systems with 10 light years range, and one Indra periphery is fundamentally so little spatial advancement that maximum attacks remain possible, and each week the Spire sieges will do nothing more than help to defend the attacks launched at the end of the previous week.

Nor is it an option to advance only a few systems weekly; if we do that, the final Spire will be gone well before the Titan resistance is lowered. Would that it were Titan Hadad, which has its final Spire site also as its closest system!

Short of gaining some entirely new way to clear Thargoid systems, we need an Alert-stopping victory cascade, and we need it to align it very carefully so that we have the most possible advancement which avoids exposing the Spire site.

The shell​

For this to work, we need to consider the Titan Indra systems both spatially and sequentially. Consider a feasible victory, and work backwards from there:
  • The system containing its innermost Spire site is Arietis Sector KR-V b2-1, twelfth place from the Titan. Without undermining its position expensively, that means the fewest it can leave behind is two systems. For some error margin and because we have achieved it before with Titan Leigong, assume we will leave it with three systems.
  • To end at three by using ten-system peripheries and assuming no attacks interfere, the remaining system totals in the preceding weeks will follow the pattern 43, 33, 23, 13.
  • Given that a recently-cleared system cannot be attacked again for four weeks, that means our Spire sieges need to start with 43 systems, to proceed to reduce it down to three. In theory we would need also to account for Spire sites farther out than 43rd place, but in practice those have already been cleared once and should function now as normal Control systems instead, to be tested rather than relying on the Galaxy map.
  • Now we switch to spatial strategy—wherever that 43rd system lies by distance to the Titan, we need to consider the spherical shell which begins there and extends 10 light years beyond, that being the range at which Thargoids can attack systems. If every system within that shell were to become unassailable by means of being cleared recently, we have a path to victory.

The 43rd system is HIP 20679 at 17.87 Ly. Noting that the 44th system is HIP 20419 at 17.95 Ly, an appropriate choice for the shell cavity radius appears to be 17.9 Ly, thus the shell extends outward to 27.9 Ly. If that entire region of space were to become unassailable due to having been cleared recently, we would enable an Alert-free victory cascade, and it would align well with the final Spire site.

In theory, everything within that shell from 17.9 Ly to 27.9 Ly needs to become Thargoid-controlled, then to be evicted all together. We need to wait rather than defend, then we strike. We need to take over a hundred systems from Titan Indra in a single week.

The purge​

Where the Titan Oya front was impressive for the size of its payloads, the Titan Indra front will need to excel in the number of its systems. The Research limpet may perplex the intelligent minds of Commanders, yet to a strategist the Research limpet works. The Research limpet is our friend, and we know not why, but the Research limpet will succeed.

Research payload stockpiling has begun for the weaker systems around Titan Indra, to be joined later by a stronger drive after the Hadad threat is neutralised. It will be difficult to track, and we will need Commanders to be very careful to deliver Research items to the correct Fleet Carrier for each system, but it must be done! The Post-Disaster Evacuation Service represents the present point of coordination; the responsibility of keeping the full list will be unenviable, but the hope is that we can at least make it thankful.

In practice with Commanders still defending systems within the shell, unfortunately this will leave a few gaps, but these should be manageable:
  • By chance, some prematurely-defended systems will still be unassailable at useful times.
  • Those which become targets will at least only do so once during the following month, with no continual replacement.
  • We can predict the attacks and we have some ability to make corrections, be it stopping an attacker or simply advancing the next periphery to compensate.

That said—as much as possible, please stop completing systems around Titan Indra! Its systems amount on the Galaxy map will grow, but precisely that is the plan—take them all back together, so that the attacks actually stop for a month.

Purge week will be whenever we are ready to deliver it; any major form of war-related communication will be very much aware, during which we repel all Alerts, defend all Invasions and leave Titan Indra with exactly 43 systems. We then complete peripheries, but this time only with any specific manipulations needed to manage an aligned collapse.

There is no particular rush to prepare the purge itself; time pressure applies only once delivered, after which we are committed to completing peripheries weekly. The real test is that we must not clear a single system more than that! Unless it is to clear a full set of ten systems, overachieving will ruin it.

Afterword​

Part of the reason for writing this is to offer a little insight into the various Titans, their differing difficulties and strategic considerations. Thankfully it has now become clear to most Commanders that there will not be uniform times between Titan assaults, especially refuting the extrapolations based only on Titan Taranis, although many still look at the Thargoid War information on the Galaxy map and assume that the Titan with the fewest systems ought to be next.

Remember that a Titan having many systems implies that many are at far distances, and therefore much weaker to recapture. If a Titan has 200 systems, it is because several are far enough for one wing to remove 50 in a week. Unless any fundamentally different ideas are forthcoming, the best strategy really is to let the Indra region grow until the time comes to purge and push for the Titan—until then, to defend closer space is to make it more difficult than it needs to be, and it compromises the future assault.

The Indra venture will not be simple, nor will the approach be conventional—however, one thing it will be is next!
 
Possibly dumb question: is the Alert flood mentioned in the Abstract a distinct phenomenon from the one that happened around Oya shortly before it fell?

I don't really understand the dynamics of how Titans take over neighbouring systems.
 
Sounds complicated, sheer wait of numbers and attrition should work ;-)

The trouble is that its systems become ever so much stronger as we approach the Titan, and its full nine attacks every single week will be similarly stronger! Using the Spire site for the Alerts will stop working eventually when we surpass the site itself.

Actually with that in mind, a much better idea than trying to fight our way in would be to prepare the entire Maelstrom all at once. Better than that—and not requiring probably half a year—is to prepare all but the last few peripheries as described!


Thanks for all the info, insights and strategies!

Most welcome! With many, many war-active Commanders wanting the Indra region back, I intended to post something such as that a bit earlier, but was worried about Titan Hadad misbehaving in the meantime. I can only hope that enough understand the notion of leaving it a bit while we prepare everything!


Possibly dumb question: is the Alert flood mentioned in the Abstract a distinct phenomenon from the one that happened around Oya shortly before it fell?

Perfectly good question, and very distinct, yes; the thirty around Titan Oya was an anomaly, where notably Titan Hadad has missed its chance to do that. Probably we will never know, but for the moment my default position is that Frontier wanted to delay us a bit to rush out a Titan patch, given that they had a reward model in mind which had been waived twice (since thrice) due to Titan glitches.

In this case, a traditional attack on Titan Indra will be fighting its full nine Alerts every week; normally this is not the case because clearing Control systems also removes so many attackers that eventually a Titan has no means to attack as many as nine, and that Control victory proceeds like a wavefront, reinforcing itself by having no attacks to address.

In the Indra region, the density causes so many more targets to be in range of its existing Control systems that we would not see that effect at all; systems we clear now will just be attacked again after one month. Nine weekly Alerts will flood the outer ten-system periphery, making Spire progress almost useless—and the twelfth-place position of the final Spire makes that completely useless!

Clearing an entire outer shell in a single week will protect all of that space for a month, which will be our chance to use Spire peripheries without Alerts saturating them!


I don't really understand the dynamics of how Titans take over neighbouring systems.

When they are behaving, a Control system can place an Alert up to ten light-years away from itself every two weeks, hence their Indra density advantage. However, systems cannot be attacked again after being defended or cleared; in the case of Control systems (and Invasions which lose a port!), this is four weeks, hence planning for four peripheries to follow it.
 
In theory, everything within that shell from 17.9 Ly to 27.9 Ly needs to become Thargoid-controlled, then to be evicted all together
That involves 33 additional inhabited systems and another 50ish uninhabited systems being captured by the Thargoids, which at maximum Thargoid progress would take them at least 10 weeks to place the Alerts plus however long on top of that to complete the outer Invasions. Any successful defence would extend the schedule significantly - a successful late Invasion defence would need to wait four weeks for the next Alert, then another two weeks to get the long Invasion cooldown, before it could be defended.

If nothing else that feels like an argument for attacking the simpler Thor instead in the short term solely to give Indra time to make itself vulnerable to this strategy. If the plan can't start until August at the absolute best, there's probably time to destroy Thor, collect all the necessary sample stockpiles for Indra, and have a summer holiday.



On the other side, the size of the shell may be an overestimate - Indra is not perfectly connected, after all - so the number of systems actually reachable by the inner 43 will be much lower. Of course, it may be necessary to allow Indra to take some other systems solely to ensure that it can make enough attacks from the inner 43 to fill that perimeter - though encouraging external attacks would help there. I'll put together a map of what the inner 43 can actually target tomorrow.
 
That involves 33 additional inhabited systems and another 50ish uninhabited systems being captured by the Thargoids, which at maximum Thargoid progress would take them at least 10 weeks to place the Alerts plus however long on top of that to complete the outer Invasions.

Definitely aware of that, and moreover we recognise already that Commanders are never going to allow such a shell to fill with Control systems in practice, hence the note a little further down about managing it with gaps which can be attacked. Alongside simulating the attack outcome of delivering the shell and selecting additional systems to balance the result, we should be able to make such corrections feasibly for the first two peripheral weeks, and I am hoping a bit that the original shell will then suffice for silencing the inner 23 systems!


I'll put together a map of what the inner 43 can actually target tomorrow.

Could be useful! We have a list from having simulated the result of defending nothing at M. Indra, and indeed it shows a few systems which appear safe—I examined a few and they seemed to be little peninsulas which would need much farther systems to become Control first. That said, not being attacked at all is not the same as not being attacked by the inner 43—the difference with the latter is that they are clear for being defended at any time (although still must go in purge week, if present).

Such a list may also need a few extra systems to account for Spire sites, although at present this depends upon the result of testing whether those once-cleared-officially sites are indeed normal Control systems now.
 
Well, maybe I'm getting ahead a little here, but how would the approach look for Cocijo? (In theory, and aware that it doesn't quite have the unique constraints of Indra with system density. The spire situation still is worse. But curiosity got the better of me as this is a subject now.)
 
Well, maybe I'm getting ahead a little here, but how would the approach look for Cocijo? (In theory, and aware that it doesn't quite have the unique constraints of Indra with system density. The spire situation still is worse. But curiosity got the better of me as this is a subject now.)
Cocijo's average density is roughly the same as Indra's (though fewer inhabited systems in the mix), but the final spire is at position 17 so Cocijo would still have a too-tough 7+ Controls left afterwards.

The easiest difficult strategy for the final weeks would be to stop the assault on Cocijo's final spire at 85% - or at least just short of 100% - allowing it to be used for a second week to take out the remaining controls and any last-minute Alerts they place. Failing that - and it's likely to fail - things get a lot worse.
 
I read it as Aleks saying everything in that sphere had to be Thargoid controlled and Ian saying it would take the Thargoids 10 weeks to achieve that, rather than 10 weeks for purge collection. On the basis that anything not controlled within the last 4 weeks could be alerted immediately but anything that lost control could not re-alert for 4 weeks
 
Indeed it could take the Thargoids until August to fill the entire shell with Control systems, but indeed let that notion live only in theory-land! We know that will not occur regardless of the amount of time, so the best we can do is remove what there is all at once and make system count corrections as needed.

As an aside, using a higher amount of time to collect Research cargo could start us at 33 systems instead of 43, for a slightly closer and more full ten-light-year shell.
 
I read it as Aleks saying everything in that sphere had to be Thargoid controlled and Ian saying it would take the Thargoids 10 weeks to achieve that, rather than 10 weeks for purge collection. On the basis that anything not controlled within the last 4 weeks could be alerted immediately but anything that lost control could not re-alert for 4 weeks
Ah, that makes more sense in context.
 
If we are planning on doing a mass-purge, then we should probably use Thargoid Bio-Storage Capsules as much as possible. Indra currently has 9 Counter-Attack systems, which means Bio-Storage Capsules are worth about 80% MORE than tissue samples(they are worth 20% of a tissue sample towards ALL counter-attack systems).

It will take on the order of 15000 of them to complete all these systems at once. If you've got nothing to do tomorrow as we wait for Hadad, that would be a great way to spend your time!

Just store them on your Carrier for the moment as we wait for the necessary week. The closest non-thargoid system is Obamumbo.

Also, if we could figure out how to trigger MORE counter-attack states, that could be a big game-changer. Right now there are 9, but we could get upwards of 15+ if we could get all formerly-inhabited systems activated. Cocijo has 10 at the moment, while some titans only have 2, so it seems to not be strictly random and may be triggered by something player-controlled; perhaps just combat, but maybe AX reactivation missions? It would be good to figure out.
 
If we are planning on doing a mass-purge, then we should probably use Thargoid Bio-Storage Capsules as much as possible. Indra currently has 9 Counter-Attack systems, which means Bio-Storage Capsules are worth about 80% MORE than tissue samples(they are worth 20% of a tissue sample towards ALL counter-attack systems).

It will take on the order of 15000 of them to complete all these systems at once. If you've got nothing to do tomorrow as we wait for Hadad, that would be a great way to spend your time!

Just store them on your Carrier for the moment as we wait for the necessary week. The closest non-thargoid system is Obamumbo.

Also, if we could figure out how to trigger MORE counter-attack states, that could be a big game-changer. Right now there are 9, but we could get upwards of 15+ if we could get all formerly-inhabited systems activated. Cocijo has 10 at the moment, while some titans only have 2, so it seems to not be strictly random and may be triggered by something player-controlled; perhaps just combat, but maybe AX reactivation missions? It would be good to figure out.
Like the idea but at the moment there are no AX Reactivations. I don't know if the Reacs in Post Thargoid Recovery Systems are still there but the hostile reboot missions you get in Alerts and Invasions have vanished.

They made such a big thing out of Counterstrike Systems when they first appeared and were called Frontline systems. Before Derin left he was on the old Frameshift Live stream stressing their importance (but of course not in any usable detail).

And then nothing seemed to come of it.

They were supposed to be different because they had CZs in them but then CZs appeared in regular Controls as well.

They were supposed to represent the spearhead of expansion but that didn't work either, since clearing out regular Controls also prevents attacks and expansions, and with more of them they were better placed to do it.

Taking them out did nothing to reduce the number of Alerts produced either.

The Frontline/Counterstrike didn't seem to offer anything to counter expansions that you couldn't achieve in regular Controls, and did nothing new that we could see, so it left us all scratching our heads and asking the not unreasonable question "What are these things actually for then?"

I've no idea how we would find out any more about them than we have already, or where we would even start, but if there is some trick to using or generating them it would be great to find out what it is.
 
I presumed that Counterstrikes were selected when each week begins, and with all of them biased towards outer once-populated systems, it seems unlikely there is any specific action which causes them. Exactly how they are chosen was indeed never explored well, but regardless of the details we would be working with not necessarily knowing the affected systems until delivery time—perhaps possible to use if the Titan rescues are that full completion amount, we supplement any systems which lose Counterstrike and we let the rescues cover any expanded Control systems which gain Counterstrike.

Of course in practice, the future Counterstrike systems actually are quite likely to be the same set present now! I am quite happy to track the held Titan rescues if needed, perhaps avoiding listing them until T. Hadad explodes, and with hope that it is reasonable to expect enough to complete those systems entirely.

Notably I imagine Counterstrikes will remain plentiful even after the shell purge, where it will be easier to consider Titan rescues for partial progress. I imagine also that we could get scenarios such as three peripheral Counterstrikes and five more among the inner systems not for completion yet, so there would be an element of deciding each week whether to deliver held rescues or save them for the next. M. Indra has many once-populated systems!

Additional: If investigating the Counterstrikes, an example place to start could be to ask why is HIP 37844 not Counterstrike, yet Vocovii somehow is Counterstrike.
 
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The situation for the Indra-43 approach isn't all that bad - but there is quite a fringe of mostly-inhabited targets (and a few ex-spire sites) which it would be difficult to rely on.
Indra-edges-43.png

As an aside, using a higher amount of time to collect Research cargo could start us at 33 systems instead of 43, for a slightly closer and more full ten-light-year shell.
The map for that certainly looks better!
Indra-edges-33.png
There are a few uncaptured inhabited systems and a couple of spare spires around the perimeter, but most of them are only themselves attackable by the outer ten so it would probably just be a matter of timing the attack to start when their cooldown state happens to be right anyway. That lets the current Indra defence carry on basically as-is (and maybe even retake a few extra systems early so long as they're not on the second map in either form)

This certainly looks a more plausible plan in terms of only requiring action rather than inaction, though of course it does require rather more action.


There'd also the option to start at some intermediate between 43 and 33, and then have some padding for a small number of Alerts getting through, which if not needed could simply be discarded by not capturing a full ten Controls that week.
 
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So what sort of timeframe are we talking about?
Would those of us not involved in the setup be better off hammering Thor or doing something else entirely?
 
Would those of us not involved in the setup be better off hammering Thor or doing something else entirely?

Acknowledging that one really needs a list which can be searched, it ought to be fine to defend Indra systems which are not present in the first map above! To choose one arbitrary example:
  • I think the empty Alert system Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4 can be cleared despite being within that shell.
  • If it were drawn on the map then it would be next to Hyades Sectors NN-S b4-1 and NN-S b4-2 to the left, Control systems which should remain.
  • Conversely, that Alert is also next to Hyades Sectors NN-S b4-0 and LC-U b3-4, which I think are absent and could be evicted.
I will have to revisit the specific list later, but that should be the general idea!
 
Acknowledging that one really needs a list which can be searched
Here.

(Yes, JH-U b3-4, NN-S b4-0 and LC-U b3-4 are all fine to defend or clear)

Anything not on either list below should be fine to clear or defend without affecting the plan

----- inner 43 control systems + Titan -----
NN 3281
51 Tauri
63 Tauri
64 Tauri
71 Tauri
75 Tauri
76 Tauri
Arietis EQ-Y c18
Arietis HG-X b1-1
Arietis HG-X b1-2
Arietis IG-X b1-4
Arietis KR-V b2-1
Arietis KR-V b2-2
Arietis MM-V b2-1
Gaezatorix
HIP 19098
HIP 19263
HIP 19870
HIP 19934
HIP 20082
HIP 20086
HIP 20187
HIP 20349
HIP 20350
HIP 20357
HIP 20480
HIP 20563
HIP 20577
HIP 20679
HIP 20827
HIP 20916
HIP 21112
HIP 21138
HIP 21179
HIP 21912
HIP 22265
HR 1354
HR 1385
Hyades RT-Q b5-3
Hyades RT-Q b5-4
Hyades TO-Q b5-4
Hyadum I
Raidal

----- directly reachable systems -----
HIP 20419
55 Tauri
58 Tauri
68 Tauri
70 Tauri
77 Theta-1 Tauri
78 Theta-2 Tauri
79 b Tauri
80 Tauri
86 Rho Tauri
92 Sigma-2 Tauri
97 i Tauri
Arietis HG-X b1-0
Arietis HG-X b1-3
Arietis JR-V b2-1
Arietis JR-V b2-2
Arietis JR-V b2-3
Arietis JR-V b2-4
Arietis LM-V b2-3
Arietis LM-V b2-5
HIP 19157
HIP 20019
HIP 20056
HIP 20146
HIP 20397
HIP 20485
HIP 20491
HIP 20492
HIP 20527
HIP 20605
HIP 20712
HIP 20719
HIP 20741
HIP 20815
HIP 20890
HIP 20899
HIP 20948
HIP 21008
HIP 21099
HIP 21261
HIP 21475
HIP 21918
HIP 22350
HIP 22496
HIP 22524
HR 1358
HR 1403
Hyades FX-H a11-0
Hyades JH-V c2-13
Hyades NN-S b4-1
Hyades NN-S b4-2
Hyades NN-S b4-3
Hyades PI-S b4-2
Hyades PI-S b4-3
Hyades QI-S b4-2
Hyades ST-Q b5-5
Hyades TO-Q b5-2
Hyadum II
Lei Hsini
Obamumbo
Ross 378
Scythia
 
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