The 2020 Dev Run: As Big As The Launch Run (?)

We know, for certain, that FDev's entire dev' team was working on Beyond because they told us that "The new Era" only entered pre-production in Q3 of 2018.
Incorrect. The 'new Era' stuff already was in full production since some time in Q3 of 2018. Source: FDEV. Now please don't ask me to link to one of the most debated posts of all times, I am pretty sure you can find it yourself... ;)
 
Well, I've been saying that since this time last year.

Personally, I always figured that FCs were "nearly ready" when FDev realised they had nothing substantial for 2019 and so they figured FCs would provide that.
Given the improvements to mining, it was pretty clever to dangle the carrot of FCs in front of players to keep them in the game.
Frankly, I'd bet that more players have spent more time mining, this year, than any other activity in the game.

But I digress.

Even if we assume FCs hadn't even been looked-at since Q3 of 2018, when FDev announced the re-arrival of FCs back in August they must have assumed it'd be possible to deliver them by December.
That leaves us with only three possibilities:-
1) They carried on ignoring them and then, eventually, realised there was a significant amount of work remaining and decided it would be impossible to deliver them as re-promised after all.
2) They worked on them diligently and realised that it would be impossible to deliver them on time regardless of how much extra effort went into them.
3) They just flat-out lied and never intended to deliver them.

Do any of those options elicit much confidence?

About the best we can hope for is that FDev grossly underestimated the effort required AND they've learned from this mistake and won't make it again.

Honestly, the palava with FCs and the shambolic nature of the September update absolutely reeks of a team that's "swinging the lead" and I can only hope the relevant people have had a fire lit under their butts.
The proof of this, however, will only come with high-quality updates - delivered in a timely manner - at some point in the future.

Right now, I have two possible predictions for 2020:-
1) "The New Era" will turn out to be something horrifically underwhelming, followed by an announcement that development of ED has ended.
2) FDev will announce they've reverted to providing "The New Era" in episodic format.

That might change if FDev up their game and start providing updates/content in a diligent manner but, particularly based on their performance over the last 18 months, I currently have absolutely no confidence that they're capable of delivering a significant expansion by the end of 2020.
Option 2 on both.
 
Even if we assume FCs hadn't even been looked-at since Q3 of 2018, when FDev announced the re-arrival of FCs back in August they must have assumed it'd be possible to deliver them by December.
That leaves us with only three possibilities:-
1) They carried on ignoring them and then, eventually, realised there was a significant amount of work remaining and decided it would be impossible to deliver them as re-promised after all.
2) They worked on them diligently and realised that it would be impossible to deliver them on time regardless of how much extra effort went into them.
3) They just flat-out lied and never intended to deliver them.

4) They could release FC's now, but their customers threw a wobbler and demanded they don't add any new content before fixing a load of bugs.
 
If the 'majority' of the 100 were on Carriers, you'd be right Stealthie. But we're told they're not. They're on the DLC. And that staffing focus makes a difference.

(Granted it'd be good to know the split, and whether it's fluid. Is it roughly 70/30 for DLC/core? 80/20? Have devs been shuffled in either direction? Etc).

According to the Lave radio podcast, 15 are working on the current game, the remaining 85 are on New Era stuff.
 
We were also told that FC's would be part of Beyond.
We were also also told they'd be released this December.

We know, for certain, that FDev's entire dev' team was working on Beyond because they told us that "The new Era" only entered pre-production in Q3 of 2018.
By that point, it's reasonable to assume the content of Beyond was "locked in".
And then they encounter problems with FC's which meant they couldn't be delivered and which, presumably, couldn't be resolved quickly regardless of how much extra brain-power was applied.

So, we move into 2019 with the majority of FDev's team working, allegedly, on "The new Era" and a smaller team overseeing content scheduled for release in 2019... including FC's.
Once again, it's reasonable to assume that the content for 2019 was "locked in" and considered deliverable by the team involved.
After all, a company doesn't make promotional video's about features it plans to introduce - especially ones that have already been delayed previously - if they have any intention of maintaining their credibility.

And yet now we're told that FC's are going to be delayed again in order to focus on fixing bugs.
That tells us that FC's aren't just "not quite ready yet" but that they're so far away from "not ready" that, once again, the application of extra brain-power for a short period wouldn't get them across the line.


Does anybody really think that FDev's office currently consists of, say, 90 people all beavering away on an amazing update while there's 10 stressed-out coders locked in the basement, desperately trying to complete FC's, fix bugs and deliver updates in isolation and they're being denied any assistance that might help them succeed?

Let's face it, if a company ever has to choose between achieving a milestone now and delaying something that's a year in the future, they're ALWAYS going to choose to do what's required to achieve the imminent milestone.

If they don't do that, it's because they can't achieve it, regardless of how much effort it takes.

The short answer to this is: Where is the money?

The fairly clear answer is: In DLC sales. That's where the resourcing is.

And that's why inability to deliver interim 'GAAS' content in a meaningful fashion doesn't equate to inability to deliver PDLC content in a meaningful fashion. Which was your initial argument.

(I'm on my phone, so I'm not going to go to town on sourcing and details here. There's lots of nitty gritty we could discuss and extrapolate from regarding company and dev strategy which might throw a bit more light on their behaviour. But honestly, that's the bones of it for me. The DLC is a Hail Mary pass. And their arm is fully wound back ;))
 
4) They could release FC's now, but their customers threw a wobbler and demanded they don't add any new content before fixing a load of bugs.

No, they couldn't.

If they could, they would and then they'd announce that they're concentrating on fixing bugs instead of providing anything else until the end of 2020.

You think FCs are ready and they're just witholding them out of spite?
"We had these cool new toys for you but we're not giving them to you because you moaned so much about bugs!"
 
The short answer to this is: Where is the money?

The fairly clear answer is: In DLC sales. That's where the resourcing is.

And that's why inability to deliver interim 'GAAS' content in a meaningful fashion doesn't equate to inability to deliver PDLC content in a meaningful fashion. Which was your initial argument.

Well, firstly, I'd disagree with that - at least partially.
"The money", in entertainment, comes from audience retention and media presence in order to create a market for Paid DLC.

Secondly, again you seem to be missing the point.
It is insanely bad business practice to rigidly enforce isolated teams to the point where a product/service suffers in the short-term.
If a "big push" could have got FCs across the line, they'd have done it.
The only possible conclusions are either that FDev are indulging in insanely bad business practices or that they've been wrestling with FCs for 2 years without success.
Neither of those options bodes well for the future of "The new Era".
 
Incorrect. The 'new Era' stuff already was in full production since some time in Q3 of 2018. Source: FDEV. Now please don't ask me to link to one of the most debated posts of all times, I am pretty sure you can find it yourself... ;)

Based on a comment by somebody who "left to embark on other projects", from a company which promised us FCs in December 2018 and then, again, in 2019.

Sounds legit'.

Also, if you're determined to maximise your assumptions about the length of time "The New Era" has been in production that's fine but, in doing so, you're also extending the time FCs have been in development hell, unable to be delivered.
 
Based on a comment by somebody who "left to embark on other projects", from a company which promised us FCs in December 2018 and then, again, in 2019.

Sounds legit'.
So you are saying they are lying? Because they delayed something?

Also, if you're determined to maximise your assumptions about the length of time "The New Era" has been in production that's fine but, in doing so, you're also extending the time FCs have been in development hell, unable to be delivered.
I didn't make any assumptions, just indirectly quoted FDEV.
 
So you are saying they are lying? Because they delayed something?

I'm saying that it's unwise to take somebody at their word when it's proven to be an unreliable source.

I didn't make any assumptions, just indirectly quoted FDEV.

You're making an assumption about the length of time "The New Era" has been in production based on what FDev said.... which, as I said, also means FCs have been in development hell for even longer.
 
I'm saying that it's unwise to take somebody at their word when it's proven to be an unreliable source.
It's quite normal for things to get delayed in development, just because they change their roadmap it doesn't mean they are lying about public statements.



You're making an assumption about the length of time "The New Era" has been in production based on what FDev said.... which, as I said, also means FCs have been in development hell for even longer.
The only assumption I made is that Frontier isn't lying.
 
It's quite normal for things to get delayed in development, just because they change their roadmap it doesn't mean they are lying about public statements.

It means that it's unwise to rely on such public statements though.

The only assumption I made is that Frontier isn't lying.

Which, as I said, would mean that FCs have been in development hell for longer than previously thought.
 
It really is no wonder that FDev refuse to provide long-term roadmap details, and as much as I find it frustrating that New Era is publicly a mystery, I am slowly becoming agreeable to their policy.

The amount of complaining and "FDev are filthy liars!" happening whenever the roadmap's few-announced details change, makes any premise of more transparency on New Era production (in full swing since Summer 2018) futile.
  1. "I want more information on future updates"
  2. "FDev changed their future update plans, they are liars"
  3. Repeat
The 2yr+ production time of New Era, with the allocation of the large majority of the Elite devteam too, is a good gamble to see IMO. Knuckling down and focusing on a single, large expansion to dramatically improve and expand upon Elite's gameplay and content - like how Firaxis do expansions to Civilization games.
 
Whatever this big secret is, I really hope - no, I prey! - if it really has to be spacelegs, that it's not something as seen in one of the latest SC alpha videos. While certainly attractive for the first 2 or 3 times, it would kill the game for me in no time.

Link?? Now I'm curious :p
 
Well, firstly, I'd disagree with that - at least partially.
"The money", in entertainment, comes from audience retention and media presence in order to create a market for Paid DLC.

Sure, in a GAAS. And there's at least a nominal hat tip towards that in the minority staffing being left on the core game.

Secondly, again you seem to be missing the point.
It is insanely bad business practice to rigidly enforce isolated teams to the point where a product/service suffers in the short-term.
If a "big push" could have got FCs across the line, they'd have done it.
The only possible conclusions are either that FDev are indulging in insanely bad business practices or that they've been wrestling with FCs for 2 years without success.
Neither of those options bodes well for the future of "The new Era".

They've very obviously made the difficult decision to let the GAAS aspect suffer to allow the full fat DLC to have the best possible chance of success. The 'suffering in the short term' is a deliberate act, with a deliberate pay off in mind.

The reason for this decision is fairly obvious. Seasons proved themselves to be sub-optimal, both from a dev perspective and from a consumer one. (Personally I think they're right, in the long term, to change tack).

I agree that there are plenty of 'bad practices' inherent in the above missteps, and we're still feeling the negative repercussions of some of them. (One of which was trying to do too much from the off: Launch a game with multiplayer + single player content & functionality, with dripfeed GAAS content drops, while working on periodic core expansions, all in a giant proc gen game build. It was too much).

Something had to take a hit. The GAAS aspect has.

You're seeing it as some weird contagion though. That because the understaffed GAAS branch is doing badly that the prioritised branch will also do badly. That's hugely simplistic, and ignores massive swathes of context. (It doesn't help that you're also trying to reinvent history to make your case. The Beyond Season clearly wasn't the work of the whole dev staff, as the giant hole in the middle of it, corresponding with the start of full production on the PDLC, clearly telegraphs. Stating that company declarations on these points are invalid just because the staff member in question has changed roles is beyond perverse...)
 
You asked for it, don't blame me for any form of mental distortion:

Source: https://youtu.be/Tyln5yF5Cfg

That said, I'm pretty sure a lot of people will love exactly this kind of stuff - at least for the first 2 or 3 weeks. Unfortunately I'm not one of those.
If elite feet becomes a thing, I don't expect it to become the main part of the game, unlike Star Citizen and NMS. Those two games, space legs is vital, without it, the games don't have much to offer. EDs space ship part is really pretty deep compared to those games and I suspect that elite feet will be an addition to what we can do, to expand on our adventures. Similar in some ways to the SRV but with much more gameplay available (the SRV could really do with some more).
 
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