The chances of other intelligent life out there

One thing I thought when watching that documentary; say Mars did somehow keep it's atmosphere, and perhaps it was obvious intellegent life was there. I think we'd already be flying back and forth to Mars now as easily as we can fly around the world - the space race would have gained momentum after the Moon landings. But alas, other than scientic reasons there's no real rush to get to Mars (or further).

Was that the same doc where they spoke of attempts to terraform the planet? Wouldn't it be cool if some of those things in the Gazetteer from Frontier come to pass (with the exception of WW III in 2040...:eek::eek::eek::eek: )

In all seriousness though, what do you guys think about the possibilities of terraforming Mars? It's one thing to say 'all we have to do is melt the icecaps, thicken the atmosphere, introduce photosynthesis etc, etc', but how in the blue blazes do you melt polar icecaps? It's not like we can stick a load of smog producing factories on Mars...

I'm glad I opened this here at this forum, it was always going to develop into a very interesting chat. :)
 
As for aliens, you're talking about the Fermi Paradox, but you could argue that they have already been here and left thousands of years ago. [...] Maybe they're not due back for a return visit for another 10,000 years. Who knows.

That's a good one. I suppose I was assuming they (or their AI probes, which amounts to the same thing) would stay, once here. And a lot more assumptions besides. It's a lot of fun to think about.
 
As for aliens, you're talking about the Fermi Paradox, but you could argue that they have already been here and left thousands of years ago. The Pyramids, the Sphynx, the Mayan writings, Sumetran scrolls, all of which point to the existence of extra-terrestrial beings living among us and being worshipped like "gods".

What about this: who knows if we're really the first humans? Perhaps there's another Earth hundreds of light years away, with 'aliens' that think they're 'humanity'? :D

I love talking about this sort of stuff. :D
 
In all seriousness though, what do you guys think about the possibilities of terraforming Mars? It's one thing to say 'all we have to do is melt the icecaps, thicken the atmosphere, introduce photosynthesis etc, etc', but how in the blue blazes do you melt polar icecaps? It's not like we can stick a load of smog producing factories on Mars...

Read 'Red Mars' by Kim Stanley Robinson. He goes into (sometimes excruciating) detail on how this might be accomplished.

Bottom line though, the tech isn't there yet, and even if it were, it would take 1000 years to make it habitable like Earth is now. However, as the Sun expands in a billion years or so & gets so hot that the Earth's oceans boil away, Mars is the next logical step for the human race & 1000 years isn't so long.
 
My personal belief is the Universe is teaming with life just based on the loose facts that we know now that given the right environment life seems to find a way. We know that life can survive in the vacuum of space as well. Every year the chances of even life in our small solar system getting found is getting better and better.

When we look at our solar system it's not a special one off, so called habitable planets are being found everyday round stars.In the end I think it comes down to the something like the drake equation and the sheer numbers involved that are mind boggling.

Do I think we have been visited, probably not. But we do need to learn to look after our pale blue dot and get on with each other. The strangest thing I feel is that sometimes it does looks like (and I’m not saying a God as I’m not religious) things are just too well placed to encourage us out into space.

Who are we? We find that we live on an insignificant planet of a humdrum star lost in a galaxy tucked away in some forgotten corner of a universe in which there are far more galaxies than people.
Carl Sagan
 
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Do I think we have been visited, probably not. But we do need to learn to look after our pale blue dot and get on with each other. The strangest thing I feel is that sometimes it does looks like (and I’m not saying a God as I’m not religious) things are just too well placed to encourage us out into space.

Who are we? We find that we live on an insignificant planet of a humdrum star lost in a galaxy tucked away in some forgotten corner of a universe in which there are far more galaxies than people.
Carl Sagan

Quite so. I agree with something that President Reagan said - he stated that a hostile alien invasion would unite the world like nothing else before or since. That's the one and only way we'd stop our pointless bickering in my opinion... but if it's a choice between bickering or annihilation, I'd choose a good ol' row every time. ;)

Bottom line though, the tech isn't there yet, and even if it were, it would take 1000 years to make it habitable like Earth is now. However, as the Sun expands in a billion years or so & gets so hot that the Earth's oceans boil away, Mars is the next logical step for the human race & 1000 years isn't so long.

I just love thinking about what would happen in the future! If when we die, there's no way to 'keep tabs' on what's going on down on Earth as the centuries pass, I'm going to want my money back. :p
 
Mars also lacks a significant magnetosphere to shield its atmosphere from ionising radiation - this allows hydrogen to be lost to space, while oxides accumulate at the surface.

Like Earth, its composition is mostly iron and oxygen. Significant inputs of hydrogen could increase the water volume, while also releasing lots of heat- this would likely be one of the main terraforming processes. However it would have to be an ongoing process as there's no easy way to synthesise a magnetosphere.

You could try wrapping it in coils - induced EMFs from orbiting though the sun's magnetic fields could mean the coils wouldn't need powering, and again they also generate heat via Joule's second law. Less extreme would be an array of independent coils dotted around the surface. But on Earth our field is mostly produced by our active geology, caused by convection currents of molten core material - some of which is due to residual heat from the formation and subsequent re-formation following the collision with Theia, with the rest due to ongoing decay of copious radioactives... Tidal heating from Lunar drag is also likely to be a factor. Inducing interior processes like this on Mars would be very challenging. Trying to kickstart it by fashioning an artificial moon (say from Kuiper belt material) would likely cause mass volcanism that would take epochs to settle down...

As for life, you need relative stability while still having viable energy gradients (so there still needs to be some kind of inorganic activity providing the grass roots). Geothermal energy from tidal forces could suffice in the absense of stellar radiation. And then you need a sufficiently complex chemistry - presumably diverse enough that it can become auto-catalysing - that is, given an ongoing source of input energy, the chemistry needs to be varied enough that reactions can catalyse new compounds that will themselves catalyse the formation of new compounds, ultimately culminating in the development of molecules forming the roles of proteins and enzymes. The most flexible chemical base for this is of course carbon, followed by silicon, then maybe arsenic / selenium.. I expect "life-like" autocatalysing systems are extremely common.


The big black swan event in the eventual evolution of sentience was the development of mitochondria - basically the "fuel cells" that cells needed to remain efficient while contributing to a multicellular network. The emergence of life so early in Earth's youth, and the unbroken ubiquity of unicellular life for the next 3 billion years, suggests that life is cheap and abundant, but multicellular life extremely rare, and sentience might only happen a few times per galactic lifespan...
 
It's funny, when Beagle 2 was being prepped for launch on-board Mars Express, they tested one of the instruments (a mass spectrometer, designed to look for life) on Earth.

It turned out there was no life on Earth at all. :p
And some people wonder why it crashed! ;)

Maybe they're not due back for a return visit for another 10,000 years. Who knows.
Imagine how disappointing it would be if they came back and it was only because one of them had left the tap on! Or finding out that we were some kind of accident or experiment that went wrong. I rather think that would bother me. Or at least explain the cast of TOWIE.
 
Not seen anybody throwing this one in :-

The Drake equation states that:

N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L

where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
and
R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[5]
 
I have no problem with the idea that there's intelligent life out there.

What I can't figure out though is why they would bother either visiting us or communicating with us.
 
we are still searching for intelligent life on earth and today we still haven't found any ...


"What I can't figure out though is why they would bother either visiting us or communicating with us."


"Because we are not considered intelligent life.. a life that destroys it own planet and life on the planet can hardly be called anywhere near intelligent"

If there is intelligent life out there , then they would take care we will stay on earth and not spread through the galaxy.. why? because humans are exactly like a virus.
We multiply and spread out eating and mining al resources from a planet untill there's nothing left and then we die or move on to the next host/planet untill it dies.
Any intelligent species out there would do only one thing.. find a solution to wipe out a virus and save nature.
 
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Why would they bother? To meet another intelligent life form! To know that they aren't alone in the Universe. Or perhaps they already know this. You may as well ask why David Attenborough keeps bothering chimps! ;) Err, that sounded funnier in my head. But for them surely they would still have the simple joy of exploration, meeting new races etc. Although in our case they seem to get their rocks off scaring people witless at night in their inexplicably well lit vehicles and then sloping off to god knows where!
 
The simple joy of exploration!

It would be extremely expensive in resources. No matter how advanced a civilisation becomes, travel between stars would require vast amounts of energy and time. If Richard Burton thought that only his descendants would get to see the source of the Nile he'd probably have stayed at home.

The only chance I can envisage of contact would be from an ark type ship. If a civilisation had to leave it's planet then they would expend whatever was needed to survive. But then they'd probably stop at the first suitable planet they found.
 
How about the Ancient Alien theory ...Anyone ?
I do watch it....It is over the top....But sometimes ...just sometimes you have to think ...Ok that is weird :)
 
ancient alien theory is what started religion lol , because of those very old stories people started to believe in a god.. a god is another word for alien , someone has been halicunating and even wrote it down (bible) and tada.. we found an unexplainable species and we called it god , even tho everyone knows about evolution wich is no longer a theory anymore.. they still wanna believe.
The mind is a strange thing :)

and oh do not take offense eh :)
 
ancient alien theory is what started religion lol , because of those very old stories people started to believe in a god.. a god is another word for alien , someone has been halicunating and even wrote it down (bible) and tada.. we found an unexplainable species and we called it god , even tho everyone knows about evolution wich is no longer a theory anymore.. they still wanna believe.
The mind is a strange thing :)

and oh do not take offense eh :)

we were taught at school the theory was...ape to Neanderthal man ( or cave man if you like ) to modern man...However...man lived with Neanderthal for nearly 30,000 years and that species died out....Leaving the un-answered question...Where and how did modern man evolve ...And even the greatest scientists have no answer....The missing link still exists about modern man.

As for other intellegent life it has to be out there..We are living proof it can happen and the fact that are planet is a spec of dust just in our galaxy alone would mean we are pretty daft to assume we are the only ones here
 
I don't know...

The chances per solar system is pretty small I guess.

I've seen estimates of one billion, trillion (or more) solar systems out there...

The chances are pretty high...probably ;)
 
I think the odds there is life out there in the universe is nearly 100%. Considering the vastness of it. Sentient life though? I don't know. It's hard to say with only one data point.

Most people don't consider the age of the universe. It took 4 billion years for us to come along and the universe is extremely young. Considering that life will have at least a thousand times the current age of the universe to become sentient before the universe falls out of the stellariferous era. We are are lucky to come on the scene really extremely early. The universe was only just becoming friendly to life when the sun formed. By the time the vast majority of sentient races would be coming in to existence our race would probably be one of the oldest and most advanced. Our sun only has another 4 billion years or so left, stars like proxima centuri will be around for trillions rather than billions of years. So I think we are also lucky we are here during the most interesting time of the universe, with large active stars. The golden age so to speak. So I don't know we may be the first, but there may be other "first" races out there that are at a similar point as us.
 
As for aliens, you're talking about the Fermi Paradox, but you could argue that they have already been here and left thousands of years ago.

Maybe they're not due back for a return visit for another 10,000 years. Who knows.

I'm not so sure they're not still here. People always laugh off alien abduction stories and the main criticism is why would an intelligent species do all those bizarre things.

Was watching a marine doco one day and as I watched a large number of boats cornered a dolphin. The biologists then dragged it on board, measured everything from beak to tail, weighed it, took blood samples, scanned it with various devices, tagged it with a chip (to track and locate it later) and as a final indignity stuck a device in it's rectum to collect a sample of it's faeces (to determine its diet), then threw it back in the ocean.

Imagine what that dolphin's telling it's mates at the pub. :D
 
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