The chances of other intelligent life out there

I'm not so sure they're not still here. People always laugh off alien abduction stories and the main criticism is why would an intelligent species do all those bizarre things.

Maybe so, but I was referring really to a time when aliens perhaps walked openly among us and announced themselves as such. These days, they're much more circumspect... more like the Teasers from HHGTTG.

I do wonder though when Reagan said that at the UN conference (mentioned earlier in this thread) if he was talking from some actual knowledge or whether it was just pure fanciful speculation.
 
So what I'm wondering is this: Intelligent life as we know it requires the planet to be the right distance from its star in order for an atmosphere to thrive (as opposed to disappearing like Mars' did) and for liquid water to exist (as well as the millions of years for evolution) - but doesn't it also require some sort of stabilising Moon like we have, so the axis is stable and things like seasons can exist?

Although none of them has life, the rotational axes of Mercury, Venus and Mars are all stable (certainly not "chaotic"). Of those, only Mars has moons and those are so small that I doubt they have any significant "stabilizing" effect.
 
Although none of them has life, the rotational axes of Mercury, Venus and Mars are all stable (certainly not "chaotic"). Of those, only Mars has moons and those are so small that I doubt they have any significant "stabilizing" effect.

Mars does have a chaotic rotational axis. That was described in the documentary. It's fact, not speculation.
 
we were taught at school the theory was...ape to Neanderthal man ( or cave man if you like ) to modern man...However...man lived with Neanderthal for nearly 30,000 years and that species died out....Leaving the un-answered question...Where and how did modern man evolve ...And even the greatest scientists have no answer....The missing link still exists about modern man.

You were taught that at school? amazing. It is wrong.

There is no "unanswered questions" about the emergence of Homo Sapiens Sapiens, who I assume you mean by "modern man", although that depends on your definition of "modern" of course. An there is no such thing as a "missing link" thats a term people who don't really understand evolution use, there are many transitional species in our records for the Homo line which you can demonstrate as being our ( Modern Humans) common ancestors.

To be more specific, Homo (sapiens) neanderthalensis and Homo sapiens are directly related, they are just sub species of the genus Homo ( Hominids), who are in turn related to earlier forms to which they share a common ancestor, ie Homo Erectus and backwards through the evolutionary branches of Hominids, all the way back to the common ancestors we share with other primates. So it is not really a problem that they existed and evolved side by side at all, no more than wondering why chimps and gorillas exist at the same time in history.

Here you go, this illustrates my point: http://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/human-family-tree

I hate to sound pompus , but ignorance of really basic stuff like this is annoying :)
 
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http://www.astrobio.net/exclusive/5177/at-last-how-many-alien-civilizations-are-there

"In other words, besides human society, zero to 15,785 advanced technological societies could exist in the Milky Way.

If those galactic societies were equally spaced, they could be at an average distance of 28,845 light-years apart. That’s too far to have a dialogue with them, even through electromagnetic radiation traveling in the speed of light. So, even with such a potentially high number of advanced civilizations, interstellar communication would still be a major technological challenge.

Still, according to SDE, the average distance we should expect to find any alien intelligent life form may be 2,670 light-years from Earth. There is a 75% chance we could find ET between 1,361 and 3,979 light-years away."
 
Although none of them has life, the rotational axes of Mercury, Venus and Mars are all stable (certainly not "chaotic"). Of those, only Mars has moons and those are so small that I doubt they have any significant "stabilizing" effect.

On the subject of life here - it's been speculated that high altitude clouds on Venus may be hospitable to life - the pressure is more bearable, the heat from the sun as an energy source, and there is water there. Probes have found evidence of organics in the composition of the atmosphere, so don't discount it. Also, Venus' rotational axis is pretty unstable - it rotates the "wrong" way for a start!

Mars of course is also an open question - there may be life there today living under the surface. The methane in the atmosphere has to be replenished from somewhere... and microbes is one of the few plausible explanations.
 
Mars does have a chaotic rotational axis. That was described in the documentary. It's fact, not speculation.

Documentaries aren't always factual, in fact I've found that when they cross into my own field of the sciences (which is biology), that they're frequently unreliable. A starting point for knowledge, but not to be taken as gospel.

Now, I'm not saying Wikipedia is a gold standard by any means, but it's section on Mars' rotational and orbital characteristics makes no mention of "chaotic rotation" or indeed of any major shift in it's axial tilt (which happens to be very similar to Earth's). Even if it did, this doesn't speak to Mercury or Venus, similarly lacking moons.

It sounds plausible to me that a nice big moon will stabilise an axial tilt (though I don't know if that's established in fact), but it doesn't follow that a planet can't have a stable axial tilt without one.

On the subject of life here - it's been speculated that high altitude clouds on Venus may be hospitable to life - the pressure is more bearable, the heat from the sun as an energy source, and there is water there. Probes have found evidence of organics in the composition of the atmosphere, so don't discount it.

That would be fascinating to explore- I have read that it might be possible to settle the upper atmosphere of Venus using floating habitats. Pressurise a container to 1 Earth atmosphere and it floats at a nice high altitude. Even if there's a puncture, it should be slow enough to fix easily. Might even be more hospitable than Mars.

Also, Venus' rotational axis is pretty unstable - it rotates the "wrong" way for a start!

Well that means it changed in the past. To say it's unstable suggests it does it frequently, or for our purposes at least frequently enough to be a hindrance to life.
 
Documentaries aren't always factual, in fact I've found that when they cross into my own field of the sciences (which is biology), that they're frequently unreliable. A starting point for knowledge, but not to be taken as gospel.

Now, I'm not saying Wikipedia is a gold standard by any means, but it's section on Mars' rotational and orbital characteristics makes no mention of "chaotic rotation" or indeed of any major shift in it's axial tilt (which happens to be very similar to Earth's). Even if it did, this doesn't speak to Mercury or Venus, similarly lacking moons.

It sounds plausible to me that a nice big moon will stabilise an axial tilt (though I don't know if that's established in fact), but it doesn't follow that a planet can't have a stable axial tilt without one.

It's an interesting point, and one I don't really know. From what I've heard, minute changes (around 0.5msec per day) have been noticed in Martian rotational speed caused by the seasonal deposits & sublimation of CO2 and water ice on the polar caps. I don't think that really counts as being an "unstable" rotation though! ;)

That would be fascinating to explore- I have read that it might be possible to settle the upper atmosphere of Venus using floating habitats. Pressurise a container to 1 Earth atmosphere and it floats at a nice high altitude. Even if there's a puncture, it should be slow enough to fix easily. Might even be more hospitable than Mars.

Indeed... in fact, I would hope this would make it into Elite. We've already seen David fly around a gas giant's atmosphere in one of the dev diaries - why not a planet's atmosphere like Venus where there is a station floating there?

However, back in the real world, if we're looking for places to colonise outside of Earth, we should be heading away from that big fiery ball - not closer to it. Just a suggestion of course. :smilie:
 
I'm not so sure they're not still here. People always laugh off alien abduction stories and the main criticism is why would an intelligent species do all those bizarre things.

Was watching a marine doco one day and as I watched a large number of boats cornered a dolphin. The biologists then dragged it on board, measured everything from beak to tail, weighed it, took blood samples, scanned it with various devices, tagged it with a chip (to track and locate it later) and as a final indignity stuck a device in it's rectum to collect a sample of it's faeces (to determine its diet), then threw it back in the ocean.

Imagine what that dolphin's telling it's mates at the pub. :D

I bet their parting shot wont be "So long and thanks for all the fish!" then ;)
 
You were taught that at school? amazing. It is wrong.

There is no "unanswered questions" about the emergence of Homo Sapiens Sapiens, who I assume you mean by "modern man", although that depends on your definition of "modern" of course. An there is no such thing as a "missing link" thats a term people who don't really understand evolution use, there are many transitional species in our records for the Homo line which you can demonstrate as being our ( Modern Humans) common ancestors.

To be more specific, Homo (sapiens) neanderthalensis and Homo sapiens are directly related, they are just sub species of the genus Homo ( Hominids), who are in turn related to earlier forms to which they share a common ancestor, ie Homo Erectus and backwards through the evolutionary branches of Hominids, all the way back to the common ancestors we share with other primates. So it is not really a problem that they existed and evolved side by side at all, no more than wondering why chimps and gorillas exist at the same time in history.

Here you go, this illustrates my point: http://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/human-family-tree

I hate to sound pompus , but ignorance of really basic stuff like this is annoying :)

LOL That proves the point.....From a monkey looking Homo rudolfensis we suddenly look human enough to make huts weopons metals etc...wheres the in between :) ah yes the missing link ..

Yet ....Homo erectus looks human before we did....and evolved through more stages we actually know about.....Sorry we are still missing something there..

Also Please dont call me ignorant !!!

Its clear by the link below no one knows what the missing link is

http://www.icr.org/article/2709/
 
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Personally, my feeling is that intelligent life (life that can contemplate its own existence, life that has created technology) is very rare indeed.
It's just my opinion of course; my feeling.

I do think that simple life forms will be fairly commonplace in the galaxy (bacteria, lichen) - but the existence of technological civilisations is a different matter.

Part of my reasoning on this is that it takes a long, long time for life to evolve, and any number of things can destroy that tree of life - and of course what good is it having technological civilisations existing in the galaxy, if they do not co-exist at the same time that we on Earth do? And for me, this is the key point. I think the chances of two technological civilisations existing at the same time in the same galaxy, is, very remote.
 
Part of my reasoning on this is that it takes a long, long time for life to evolve, and any number of things can destroy that tree of life - and of course what good is it having technological civilisations existing in the galaxy, if they do not co-exist at the same time that we on Earth do? And for me, this is the key point. I think the chances of two technological civilisations existing at the same time in the same galaxy, is, very remote.

This.

We just happen to be around at this particular point in time to ask the question.

And whilst I agree in galactic terms the chances are pretty small, I think if you take the universe as a whole there must be someone else out there writing the exact same thing on an 'Elite IV General Discussion' forum at this particular moment in time.
 
And whilst I agree in galactic terms the chances are pretty small, I think if you take the universe as a whole there must be someone else out there writing the exact same thing on an 'Elite IV General Discussion' forum at this particular moment in time.

Nah... they'll already be on Elite XII. In their corner of the universe, games publishers are sensible & realise great games when they see them, and don't try and tell the developers how to do their jobs. :p
 
@synchro - But we now know we lived alongside neanderthals and probably other cousins for some time - some researchers are even now suggesting some ancient examples of cave art might not have been made by modern humans, as had long been presumed. That is, we're beginning to see clues as to neanderthal culture and how they thought.

All of the evidence is consistent with a continuum of migrations and resulting adaptations causing ongoing speciation of the lineage. We're not a final, terminal result but are continuing to change - undergoing graciation of the skeleton and musculature, increase in height, brain:body mass ratio, and these are just off the top of my head - i'd bet paleoanthropologists and even good anatomists could tell you of more ongoing adaptations.

Neuroscientists, molecular biologists and geneticists have recently been making great strides in understanding epigenetic evolution - hence we now know that gene expression in individual cell nuclei is being constantly reprogrammed in response to multiple variables; whereas we previously thought all of our cells contained an identical copy of our genome, which remains the same from cradle to grave, we've established that not only is the genome we die with not the same one we were born with, but that this holds true individually and perhaps uniquely for every cell in our bodies, and is especially important in neurons. Hence the ability to remember what we ate for breakfast is likely a direct result of our ongoing genetic evolution. That is to say, genetic evolution and hereditary is horizontal, or Lamarckian, as well as vertical (Darwinian). We absorb genetic information about our lives and pass it on to our offspring. This is a key departure from the strict 'survival of the fittest' paradigm, where chance mutations are selected upon by random pressures, to a view of inherited specialisation, of causal, pre-emptively guided and non-random selection.

A simple hypothetical example of this might be desert penguins. If we marooned enough penguins in a desert, most would die and a few lucky individuals might have a slightly better tolerance for the new conditions.

Darwin would say that their offspring might have a 25 or 50% chance of inheriting the advantage, and that nature would simply be selecting the lucky hands from a random shuffle. Lamarck however believed that the necessary adaptations would occur because of the parent's experience, and be handed down accordingly. The triumph of Darwin in accurately predicting and explaining the mechanisms of evolution lead us to believe the vertical solution was the only one, and that horizontal evolution was a false start. Creationists have made great capital from this misconception, however it has now been decisively overturned. Gene expression is a function of methylation, the binding sites depend on how the genome is folded and hence which parts are outside vs inside the knot, and all these kinds of evolutionary mechanisms are being verified and clarified all the time.

In reality there are no more "missing links" than there are distinct, static or in any sense ' complete' or final human forms today - we're all 'missing links' (if not missing a few links) and so were all our forebears...
 
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This.

We just happen to be around at this particular point in time to ask the question.

And whilst I agree in galactic terms the chances are pretty small, I think if you take the universe as a whole there must be someone else out there writing the exact same thing on an 'Elite IV General Discussion' forum at this particular moment in time.
Nah... they'll already be on Elite XII. In their corner of the universe, games publishers are sensible & realise great games when they see them, and don't try and tell the developers how to do their jobs. :p
I agree. If we are considering the Universe, then there must be countless civilisations out there.
But just in our 'tiny' galaxy, I reckon we could be alone!
 
Not seen anybody throwing this one in :-

The Drake equation states that:

N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L

where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
and
R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[5]

The problem with the Drake Equation is it that it's really only a starting point for a discussion like this one. Since most of the variables are guess work, and even as we discover new "super Earths" and planets in the so-called 'habitable' zone around other stars, it really proves nothing in itself.

It's great for getting people thinking about the possibilities, but really, depending on the perspective of the person phrasing it, the answer is either several billion, or zero. Or one.

I like Douglas Adams' version of it. "Population: None. Although you might see people from time to time, they are most likely products of your imagination. Simple mathematics tells us that the population of the Universe must be zero. Why? Well given that the volume of the universe is infinite there must be an infinite number of worlds. But not all of them are populated; therefore only a finite number are. Any finite number divided by infinity is zero, therefore the average population of the Universe is zero, and so the total population must be zero.." :D
 
Douglas Adams' explanation is good but it does have a flaw.

It makes use of infinity, something by it's very nature we can't prove. Seems more likely that the universe started and it will end; therefore no infinity.
 
The universe isn't infinite or at least the idea that it contains an infinite amount of stars, if it was the entire sky would be completely filled with starlight.
 
The universe isn't infinite or at least the idea that it contains an infinite amount of stars, if it was the entire sky would be completely filled with starlight.

It is, actually. But most of the stars are too dim and too far away to see, at least with the naked eye and trapped behind the atmosphere. But the Hubble Deep Field shows what you see if you look long & hard at an apparently "blank" section of sky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Deep_Field
 
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